The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:
• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.
• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.
• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.
• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.
• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.
• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.
• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.
1298
If it was not a noble cause then less people would be willing to donate.
[At the 2007 election over three quarters of a million preferences from Green voters ended up in the two candidate preferred of the ALP. Zero ALP first preferences went the other way.]
Actually I think that ALP preferences gave Scott Ludlam the last Senate seat in WA ahead of the CDP. Also delivered Sarah Hanson-Young the last SA seat ahead of the Libs.
[We have always been at war with Eurasia!]
hahaha
Bushfire Bill
“The point is, whether Brown gets the money for himself or his party he has to declare it. None of this “the jury’s out on that.””
He has said he will. REGARDLESS of whether he has to.
It is for HIM, nothing to do with the Greens.
T”he alternative – that you could receive cash money from anyone, up to any amount and by simply saying “That’s personal money, and it’s in a good cause” – is too awful to contemplate. I suppose he could do so in a pinch, but the donation would then have to be sufficient to cover any tax payable and leave $240k as the after-tax amount. Hardly likely, given Brown’s professed impecuniosity.”
It’s not a political donation.
All we have on this blog is people speculating over the legality of what is going on, when no one has bothered to look. I sent GG a link showing him what Bill to read but he decided it was misleading.
It’s bizarre that people are trying to compare the Rudd ute thing with this legal cost.
1302
When has their ever been two candidate preferred in the post 1949 Senate?
Astroblem,
You are becoming a tiresome as well as abusive young penguin.
1. Bob Brown has a personal debt. How he achieved putting himself into this precarious position is through his political activities.
2. I am no expert on tax law and neither, I suspect are you. But, I think that whatever arrangements politicians make must be in accordance with the laws.
3. I have said a number of times I hope Brown avoids the shame and personal humiliation of being kicked out of Parliament because he is unable to manage his personal affairs.
How much more reasonable can I be?
[Actually I think that ALP preferences gave Scott Ludlam the last Senate seat in WA ahead of the CDP. Also delivered Sarah Hanson-Young the last SA seat ahead of the Libs. ]
He was referring to the lower not the upper house.
GG
You accuse me of being abusive? How and where?
“How he achieved putting himself into this precarious position is through his political activities.”
No it was a legal activity.
You raised a question to raise suspicions, yet cannot back it up. That is bad form.
[Wills and Batman should be changed from North-South Axis to East-West axis?]
History is against you. Wills is famous for his North-South crossing, and the use of Merri Creek as a boundary for Batman requires no explanation.
[He was referring to the lower not the upper house.]
I know that, but clearly the Greens get their benefit back in the Senate, so it’s a bit silly limiting the Green-Labor transaction to the lower house. Both parties knew that Labor wouldn’t end up preferencing Lower House Greens candidates anywhere when they made thay deal. The 2PP statement is a bit moot when clearly both sides got something out of the preference deal.
[It’s not a political donation.]
Isn’t any donation to a politician a political donation?
[GG
You accuse me of being abusive? How and where?]
In his mind – it’s what he does when he comes to a dead end in a debate.
[Isn’t any donation to a politician a political donation?]
They’re not donating it to the Australian Greens. They’re donating it to an individual.
[They’re donating it to an individual.]
So an Independent candidate should have nothing to declare?
Astrademe,
It’s a nonsense of you to continually contend that Brown was involved in this case because of non political motives. But, please you go on believing your fantasies.
It’s quite legitimate to question politicians behaviour and motivations. The Greens do it all the time! The reality is that you and your Greens supporters don’t like Brown being scrutinised like every other politician. All I can say is suck hard on those organically grown lemons.
[So an Independent candidate should have nothing to declare?]
I’m pretty sure an independent would have a seperate entity for political donations.
1308
Brunswick and Northcote are demographically similar. Coburg and north and Preston are also similar too each other. But Brunswick is demographically different from Coburg and north as is Northcote from Brunswick.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/BrunswickDistrictprofilestats.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/PascoeValeDistrictprofilestats.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/NorthcoteDistrictprofilestats.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/PrestonDistrictprofilestats.html
The current names do not have to be kept as they are not Federation names.
Batman station is currently in Wills.
Willls is famous for dying before completing the North to South trip because he (and Bourke) were too afraid/contemptuous of the Aborigines to take their help.
Well, there are a few non-federal seats where Labor have finished behind the Greens. (No, not that one I shouldn’t mention. 😛 ) It happens in a few safe Liberal seats in NSW (North Shore, Manly, maybe some others in that area) – Labor finishing third or worse, their preferences would be distributed. Also, believe it or not, Braitling in the NT.
[I’m pretty sure an independent would have a separate entity for political donations.]
Why would they do that?
Maybe the Chaser crew should have substituted Bob Brown for those sick kids. Imagine, Bob Browns “Polywish” is for his $240k court debt to disappear.
They’d give him an iced orange cake to raffle instead.
Would have been far funnier and made their satirical point better.
[Willls is famous for dying before completing the North to South trip because he (and Bourke) were too afraid/contemptuous of the Aborigines to take their help.]
True. And your attempt to partition these electorates along “demographic” lines has a whiff of the same fear. Can’t we all just get along?
The Chaser stunt was last week and the Senator Brown thing this week. It would have been less offensive but not have satirised a near universal politically sacred point of view.
1320
My idea is not to divide people simply because they are different demographically, but that they pro-government and National party gerrymander that is the single member system be slighly less advantageous to the government.
[It’s not a political donation.]
Someone beat me to the punch: any donation to a politician is a political donation, be it
* a free airline ticket,
* two bottles of Grange,
* $240k, or
* a 2nd hand ute.
Pick the one of out these that sticks out like dog’s balls as needing to be declared.
Were the 2 bottles of Grange (“donated” to Chris Pyne by Qantas) political or personal? Was the free airline ticket given to Joel Fitzgibbon personal or political?
What about $240k?
It’s not good enough for a politician to just say something’s personal. It all goes on the record. Now, Brown is doing so, but in his interview this morning he implied it was optional. He’s a Green politician, forestry in Tasmania is a hugely political issue, Brown would have used the case as an ikonic legal and political benchmark if he’d won (come to think of it he iseems to be anyway, even after losing it). But yes, he’s declaring it, however reluctantly.
Then we go to the case of the ute: an old runabout with “Kevin Rudd’s Mobile Office” painted on it. Not a luxury car. It has a table top for stump speeches. It was declared with demur, years ago. Yet Brown joined in the smearing of Rudd, mostly based on the point that Rudd is rich and doesn’t need donations.
Here we have Brown’s Inverse Law of Political Donations: “The poorer you are the more moral it is to accept donations,” with the Rudd Corollary, “If you’re rich you should pay for everything.” . Really what Brown is saying is: “It’s OK to give huge amounts of money to Bob Brown. It’s only the other bloke who’s a scammer.”
By Brown and Turnbull’s logic, if you can afford to pay or if, say, Piers Akerman says you should be able to afford to pay, or Bob Brown says it, or all three, then anything you take from the public purse is a scam, or at least “not a good look”. That this argument is put forward by someone who did not take enough care to ensure that if he lost his court case he could pay for it, and who has just a few days ago been pontificating on political donations, is what’s “not a good look” to me.
“with demur” = “without demur”
I’m with you Bushfire Bill.
[My idea is not to divide people simply because they are different demographically, but that they pro-government and National party gerrymander that is the single member system be slightly less advantageous to the government.]
But aren’t you trying to create a gerrymander here?
1326
All single member systems are gerrymanders.
I am just trying to have the gerrymander changed to be less pro-government (it would not create any safe Green seats but would have a Labor seat with a significantly cut margin). I would like to see the back of the gerrymander that is the current electoral system.
[All single member systems are gerrymanders.]
I’m trying to see the sense in this but am failing.
[All single member systems are gerrymanders.]
But some are more-so than others. Two electorates with a diverse demographic cross section is more democratic than packing all the Green voters at one end.
Still, let us know how your submission goes..
I say we leave the planning of electorates for the electoral commissions, who seem to make an effort to ignore the suggestions of all parties.
Someone mentioned a boycott of Dick Smith Electronics due to his possible donation to a Senator.
DSE is owned by Woolworths – Not Dick Smith. 😉
[So if Dick Smith bails Bob Brown out and he keeps his seat, I wonder if we’ll see the anti-Green Laborites such as GG and Frank boycott Dick Smith stores? :D]
Umm, Dick Smith sold his Business to Woolworths more than 10 years ago. So keep digging yourself even deeper.
And Thanks Vera for sticking up for me, the gross hypocricy from our Green tinged bludgers is breathtaking – they can dish out the crap, but when an ALP person returns fire – they cry like the spoilt children they are.
And as for Kevin Rudd, It’s his personal opinion and only, and he doesn’t neccessarily speak on behalf of all ALP members.
Nice Bob, next time Greensborough Growler or Frank start firing up just quote Rudd.
I still think the real story here is not “omg hu iz gunna donate 2 brown” but the fact that he won the case, then Howard and Lennon teamed up to change the RFA and the legal yardstick, then appealed on the new terms and won. That’s how our legal system works but it doesn’t seem to protect the sense of justice and fairness it’s supposed too.
I have voted Green many times before (but not last election), I have great respect for Bob Brown, I think he was doing a great job campaigning and fighting for Tasmanian Forests against some very destructive and short sighted vested interests and I very much hope that he stays in parliament.
However, I think that he has slipped up and been caught out by his completely uncalled for petty criticism of Rudd’s ute recently. It is clearly a case of hypocrisy to join the (Lib/MSM) beat up last week about some minor, properly declared run-of-the-mill political donation, and then come out asking for huge private donations for himself this week, and not offer any kind of apology or retraction for his comments of last week.
He is going to have to now be very careful with the Green’s ongoing campaign against all corporate donations and campaign for very limited caps on individual donations.
I do hope that he just apologises for last week, realises that sometimes candidates in today’s inequitable Australia do need some help from someone with some spare cash and I will be very happy to make a small donation myself.
I note Kevin Rudd paid Brisbane Airport Corp’s costs when he lost his attempt to stop the Airport expansion.
‘The Henry review is weighing recommendations that the government use compulsion to force people to spend some of their superannuation savings on buying annuities, which would provide a guaranteed income as long as they lived.’
The rationale?
‘UP to 90 per cent of recent retirees are unlikely ever to meet their expected investment returns after the market crash of the past year, with many likely to run out of savings and wind up dependent on the age pension.’
MINOR BUT PERSONALLY IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO THE LABOR PARTY
If the Rudd/Gillard Government forces me to hand some, or all, of my retirement savings to the smooth-talking spivs, crooks, swindlers, mountebanks, and hucksters that infest the so-called financial management industry in order to provide me with an annuity I do not want, I will NEVER EVER vote for the Labor Party again. (I acknowledge that not absolutely everyone in this so-called industry is a spiv, crook, swindler, mountebank or huckster).
As an industry, many of these spivs, crooks, swindlers, mountebanks and hucksters struggle to better the market index. (I acknowledge that not absolutely everyone in this so-called industry is a spiv, crook, swindler, mountebank or huckster).
As an industry, these spivs, crooks, swindlers, mountebanks and hucksters came close to destroying the world’s financial system. (I acknowledge that not everyone in the industry is a spiv, crook, swindler, mountebank or huckster).
They do not add value. They shuffle the funds around and cream it on each shuffle. Just as often they cream it between shuffles for good measure.
This so-called industry is after the super funds of the DIY retirees. Why? Because there is a lot of it and they want to cream it. They cannot bear self-funded retirees avoiding industry entry fees, ‘management fees’, trailing commissions, consultant contracts to mates, industry exit fees, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25608201-601,00.html
I also wish to acknowledge freely that there are individual outfits that stand out for the honesty, integrity and good management. They actually do add value. They are exceptional.
Going back to the opening paragraph: [I wonder how the poor bastards are feeling who invested their retirement savings in fundies who manage ‘index’ funds. What about the ones who had funds in so-called ‘value’ investment fund managers. Many of the woodies got trashed by the fundies in the stockmarket crash. Fair enough in one way: bad investment decision (that is to say, put your faith and money in fundies) = cop the consequences]. But note the hypocrisy. Many retirees were wiped out by the self-same spivs, crooks etc, etc who now want to get their sleazy, thieving hands on DIY retirees funds.
They can b*gg*r off. And so can the Labor Government if it forces people into the hands of fund ‘managers’.
[And as for Kevin Rudd, It’s his personal opinion and only, and he doesn’t neccessarily speak on behalf of all ALP members.]
That may well be news for Kevin Rudd. Just ask for his views on Kevin Harkins.
ONYA DICK!!!!!!!!
Oh and I note a new Greens supporter has mysteriously come out of the woodwork in the last few hours (yes Gary, I do sleep – usually between 4am – till noon – it’s just the time stamp which thows people up), and coincidently it ALWAYS happens when sacred St Bob of the endagered Greens is subject to a bit of good old honest criticism.
And the others have the gall to suggest that we ALPers get our instructions from Party Office – what a load of complete Merde – To me it’s more like it’s the other way around.
I wonder if Clive Palmer has a lazy couple of hundred thousand to throw Bob’s way?
Re Frank at 1339
Yeah, I am sure the leadership of the Greens is on tenterhooks to see what Frank Calabrese thinks and to quickly respond before he shapes public opinion against the Greens.
I don’t know how to break this to you Frank but the only people who care what you think are us, the small community of nerdy types who contribute to and read Pollbludger.
Having said that, good to have you back.
ru,
They have a lot in common.
They are both unsuccessful litigants.
Rudd like Burke is a decent man thus has not put the boot into Brown like Brown did to him. Us ALP wallah hacks on the other hand don’t need to be diplomatic, we can tell it like it is 😀
Frank I don’t know if you noticed but the onions found a new name for us, Wallah, lol. i don’t know what it means but we’ll wear it with pride aye? 😉
[Yeah, I am sure the leadership of the Greens is on tenterhooks to see what Frank Calabrese thinks and to quickly respond before he shapes public opinion against the Greens.]
Once again resorting to personal attacks – I was referring to the Greens as likening them to the endangered species they are so passionate about and wanting them to be protected at any cost – rather like Greens Supporters jumping to their leader’s defence with the same passion.
But of course you cannot see that point.
[Clinton fined $50k for inviting women to hotel]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/09/2593393.htm?section=sport
for a moment there I thought Bill was in trouble
😉
(its actually a thugby league article)
[Frank I don’t know if you noticed but the onions found a new name for us, Wallah, lol. i don’t know what it means but we’ll wear it with pride aye? ;)]
A quick Google search found this.
[wallah
One entry found.
Main Entry:
wal·lah Listen to the pronunciation of wallah
Pronunciation:
\?wä-l?, in combination usually ?wä-l?\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
Hindi & Urdu -v?l? one in charge, from Sanskrit p?la protector, from p?layati, p?rayati he guards; akin to Sanskrit piparti he brings over, saves, Old English faran to go — more at fare
Date:
1782
: a person who is associated with a particular work or who performs a specific duty or service —usually used in combination ]
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/wallah
Actually it describes the Onions as well 🙂
Frank,
You suggested that the Greens get their instructions with regards to Pollbludger from Party HQ.
I know a number of Greens MP’s personally and know for a fact they do not have time to read PB and as such really don’t care what is being said.
That said, i am interested in your opinion although I often do not agree with you.
Essential Research Report for 9 June at http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/Media/Essential_Report_090609.pdf
[Nice Bob, next time Greensborough Growler or Frank start firing up just quote Rudd.]
And again:
[Mr Rudd said he was upset for Senator Brown.
“I’ve actually got a lot of time for Bob, just as a person, (he’s) a bloke I’ve got to know over the years,” he told Sky News.
“I was quite distressed to see the news today.”
“I’m quite concerned about it for him personally.”]
😀
[And as for Kevin Rudd, It’s his personal opinion and only, and he doesn’t neccessarily speak on behalf of all ALP members.]
Yep, the personal opinion of the federal Labor leader and Prime Minister of Australia!
Double :D!
Why are you calling us “onions” Frank?
Is it because we always make you cry?