The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:
• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.
• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.
• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.
• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.
• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.
• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.
• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.
[Why bother accusing others of personal attacks when you engage in them yourself?
Oh, you don’t classify yours as personal attacks. Silly me.]
I refer to the ENTIRE Group as Tofu Brigade/Mung Bean Collective – Not one individual on the group. Your lot instead attack individual personalities.
BIG Difference.
[Frank and some Green bludgers have been conducting a flame war in the previous thread and Frank’s inspirations including branding them ‘tofu munchers’ or some such thing.]
Which of course isn’t a personal attack, but saying William Bowe and Antony Green’s opinions are more recognised and respected than his is a personal attack.
The best sense I can make of the Quentin Dempster article is that the 53-47 is the last Newspoll, and the “Barry O’Farrell significantly ahead of Nathan Rees as preferred premier” bit is a mistaken reference to the Taverner poll. I can’t find any record of an ACNielsen poll.
[I refer to the ENTIRE Group as Tofu Brigade/Mung Bean Collective – Not one individual on the group. Your lot instead attack individual personalities.
BIG Difference.]
Yes of course there is Frank. LOL.
[Frank and some Green bludgers have been conducting a flame war in the previous thread and Frank’s inspirations including branding them ‘tofu munchers’ or some such thing.]
Why Tofu Brigade is no less an insult to brand Green Supoorters as the ALP Being called Latte Socialistts etc by others- we don’t take it to heart, unlike the moral supior Greens.
Just as well Brendan Nelson didn’t eat that gourmet catfood he was waving around in Parliament last year. It’s causing neurological diseases in cats. I think I’ll stick to tofu!
[Which of course isn’t a personal attack, but saying William Bowe and Antony Green’s opinions are more recognised and respected than his is a personal attack]
Of course it is as it is basically saying My opinion is worth diddly squat and doesn’t count.
But of course the Tofu Brigade rather attack the person, rather than the issue.
Whoops, Barley Charley!
I was trying to sensitise Psephos to ‘tofu’ as a politically-loaded term within the Bludger Realm. My aim was definitely not to take part in the culinary wars appertaining to discussions about possibilities and probabilities of possible future occupants of a certain sandgroper seat.
Boerwar, never get between Frank and a tofu muncher’s throat!
[Which of course isn’t a personal attack, but saying William Bowe and Antony Green’s opinions are more recognised and respected than his is a personal attack]
Unless you use this standard when attacking Glen & GP and others then it will be a legitimate comment, but if you don’t it proves once and for all that you are using it as a PERSONAL attack.
I would probably not be on my own in suggesting that this “flame war” is long past being boring and is an insult to the intelligence of readers of this blog and I would not be disappointed if William puts a stop to it forthwith.
Then heading of this blog has a wealth of subjects for people to comment on and if they wish to demonstrate their ability to intelligently discuss the multitude of current issues available then it would be much more preferable to this “mush” that has been served up for al least two days now.
You know who you are! Desist, please!
Frank
You have to think of the Tofus as new parents, wow look our party can say goo gaa, it can almost walk – oops it fell over but it is so clever.
If you say sorry your new party has one leg – that is why it falls over, or it can only say goo gaa – because it has a cleft palate, how else could a new parent respond. 😉
Ruawake, are you one of the Chasers?
[You know who you are! Desist, please!]
Umm, I will ALWAYS respond in kind to those of moral supiority who INSIST their opinion is the only one which counts.
And THEY Know who they are as well.
It takes TWO to tango.
[Unless you use this standard when attacking Glen & GP and others then it will be a legitimate comment, but if you don’t it proves once and for all that you are using it as a PERSONAL attack.]
Because we were having a psephological debate over the chances of the Greens retaining the seat. If WB/AG say Labor will retain a seat and GP says otherwise then i’ll say that to him. Heck, I tell him all the time that Newspoll shows the people approve of Labor and GP argues the point. Don’t somehow feel special, it doesn’t just go to you Frankie dearest.
[ I would probably not be on my own in suggesting that this “flame war” is long past being boring and is an insult to the intelligence of readers of this blog and I would not be disappointed if William puts a stop to it forthwith. ]
I’m a passionately carnivorous ex-Democrats usually-Greens voter who voted Labor last time (for Allanah MacTiernan), and I agree with this post. The whole thing’s geting kind of boring.
FS
LOL. A couple of very funny posts.
[What relation is Louise Staley to Tony Staley?]
According to an article in The Age from 2000, Louise is “no relation to former Liberal Party federal president Tony Staley”.
[I’m a passionately carnivorous ex-Democrats usually-Greens voter who voted Labor last time (for Allanah MacTiernan), and I agree with this post. The whole thing’s geting kind of boring.]
Why, cos it’s socially acceptable to attack ALP posters for pointing out the bleeding obvious about the Tofu Munchers ?
OK, so let’s talk about Louise then.
(1) Does she drink Latte?
(2) Does she sip Chardonney?
(3) Does she eat t*fu?
[(3) Does she eat t*fu?]
lol funny 😛
[Why, cos it’s socially acceptable to attack ALP posters for pointing out the bleeding obvious about the Tofu Munchers ?]
For three days solid? Give me and others a break!
[For three days solid? Give me and others a break!]
No, why should I NOT have the right to defend the ALP to the best of my abilites – are you one of those who consider the Tofu Munchers a Sacred Speices put on a pedastal and not to be attacked at ANY cost ?
I love it how Frank puts words in to everyone’s mouths.
Kev has been reading PB again – his latest tweet –
[KevinRuddPMFirst Defence Minister with original set of Clark Kent glasses. A first rate Minister – he will do well.]
Well, gotta go and buy some stuff for dindins… uh… no…. Well, gotta go and buy some some stuff to drink at dindins… uh… no…
Think I’ll go walk the dog.
[I love it how Frank puts words in to everyone’s mouths.]
Say’s the chiefTofu Muncher. – it wasn’t the ACTUAL words but the insinuation BEHIND your statement.
LOL at ABC commentators tip-toeing around the fact that no-one likes Terry Wallace, because he is a *thoroughly unlikeable man.*
I agree entirely with Frank.
The Green supporters have been acting as if they are on high dose steroids since a meaningless bi-election went their way.
But its more fun than banging on about a carbon neutral economy – or everyone riding pushies to work.
Frank, I’m with you, can’t stand a whiff of those greentossersalads 😉
[No, why should I NOT have the right to defend the ALP to the best of my abilites – are you one of those who consider the Tofu Munchers a Sacred Speices put on a pedastal and not to be attacked at ANY cost ?]
Just someone who sat through more than 2,800 posts on the previous thread and so far 75 on this one who is totally sick of this inane, juvenile spat over a by-election of no importance on the other side of the country.
I suddenly find I have more important things to do with my life than this rubbish.
[But its more fun than banging on about a carbon neutral economy – or everyone riding pushies to work.]
Exactly, it would force the Tofu Brigade to actually engage their brains and THINK, rather than repeat slogans used in Election Campaigns 🙂
Why only count Frank’s posts? You suggest he was talking to himself?
[I suddenly find I have more important things to do with my life than this rubbish.]
It’d be pretty sad if you didn’t.
I think William should terminate this exchange of insults, and ban dietary pejoratives of all kinds.
[Just someone who sat through more than 2,800 posts on the previous thread and so far 75 on this one who is totally sick of this inane, juvenile spat over a by-election of no importance on the other side of the country.]
Excuse me, I’ve hardly posted in the last 24 hous since having a molar extracted and spending most of yesterday afternoon/last night in bed.
If it is of no importance, then why are the Tofu Brigade treating it like a prized sacred animal then ?
[Why only count Frank’s posts? You suggest he was talking to himself?]
Yeah, especially when Bob1234, Rebecca and Oz can quite openly attack the ALP without punishment, yet if I or others DARE question what they p;ost we are branded the evil ones.
I’ll say this much: Frank has used the word “tofu” in 34 comments in four days, which is more than enough for me to invoke the banned nicknames ordinance under section whatever of comment moderation guidelines.
[I’ll say this much: Frank has used the word “tofu” in 34 comments in four days, which is more than enough for me to invoke the banned nicknames ordinance under section whatever of comment moderation guidelines.]
Well done William.
[I’ll say this much: Frank has used the word “tofu” in 34 comments in four days, which is more than enough for me to invoke the banned nicknames ordinance under section whatever of comment moderation guidelines.]
Will you apply the same ban to our Green friends if they use similar nicknames ?
bob1234
What is your opinion on employee share schemes?
34 times in four days? Of course.
[Well done William.]
brown-noser!
I wonder if the Age will have the intestinal fortitude to publish the response by the ABS to the nonsense published by them attributed to Gerard Minack.
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/4a256353001af3ed4b2562bb00121564/023fd221b674319aca2575cc0001b775!OpenDocument
[I wonder if the Age will have the intestinal fortitude to publish the response by the ABS to the nonsense published by them attributed to Gerard Minack. ]
Minack should respond too. Its in tonight Eureka Report as well
[Well done William.
brown-noser!]
I await William’s response to those who refer to ALP supporters as Hacks, Latte Socialists, Communists etc with great interest.
[Frank has used the word “tofu”]
Bilbo, please dont ban my beloved Tofu
[I await William’s response to those who refer to ALP supporters as Hacks, Latte Socialists, Communists etc with great interest.]
Can’t we handle it OK on our own?
[Can’t we handle it OK on our own?]
No, as it would be totally hypocritical for William to Ban the T word to describe our Green friends, but the others are fair game.
[The Greens believe that there should be more women in politics and we practice what we preach. Of all the Greens Senators to date, six out of seven have been women – a record unmatched by the other parties.]
http://bob-brown.greensmps.org.au/taxonomy/term/4/all
Does this mean Bob or Scott are not what they appear?
I’m waiting for Glen to turn up and see what he has to say about his new leader Swanny lol (according to SBS)