The first post-budget poll is an ACNielsen survey of 1400 respondents, and it’s given Labor its second weakest poll result since the election of the Rudd government. The first was the same outfit’s 52-48 result from September last year. ACNielsen’s previous survey in March had Labor’s lead at 58-42. The poll finds that:
• Labor’s primary vote is down three points since March to 44 per cent, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent.
• The Coalition has opened up a most unlikely sounding five point primary vote lead in Victoria, after trailing by 20 per cent in March.
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 69-24 to 64-28.
• Rudd’s approval rating is down 10 points to 64 per cent, and his disapproval is up 10 to 32 per cent. Turnbull’s ratings are unchanged at 43 per cent and 47 per cent.
• While 56 per cent believe the budget to have been fair, only 40 per cent support the budget’s phased increase in the age of pension eligibility from 65 to 67, and 38 per cent say the budget will make them worse off personally. Twenty-three per cent say it will make them better off.
The print edition will presumably feature a full chart with none-too-reliable state breakdowns.
UPDATE: No such budget narrowing from Essential Research, which has Labor’s two-party lead up from 61-39 to 62-38. However, Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down nine points from three weeks ago to 61 per cent, while his disapproval is up eight to 29 per cent. Turnbull is respectively up two to 30 per cent and up one to 49 per cent. Interestingly, fewer people found the budget bad for them personally than had expected to beforehand. Twenty-five per cent say it will make them more likely to vote Coalition against 22 per cent Labor. Peter Brent has ACNielsen’s state, area, gender and age breakdowns here.
TP,
[
But will the Coalition get suckered and on the basis of this one poll and block the Alcopop tax?
]
thought MT caved in on that FR of last week?
I think that the governments communication about the reasons for going into deficit and stimulating the economy have been hijacked by the amount of Liberals going on TV to wage a scare campaign about said deficit. It’s very frustrating to see the government ministers sit next to someone and let them spin this lie and not say anything.
More communication, whether it’s a small ad campaign explaining to people the reason for the budget measures and stimpacks.
Get someone as well as Swan to explain in simple terms, if they didn’t stimulate the economy where we would be now.
More Julia and Lindsay – great communicators
People are saying that they need to communciate the reasons why and are failing and that might be starting to show through on the polling. Still not sure if this is a trend or a one off low poll.
Message to Labor DO NOT let the Liberal party lie about the governments around the world, need to go into deficit in order to stop a depression. If Labor do then they’d deserve to take a hit at the polls.
[More communication, whether it’s a small ad campaign explaining to people the reason for the budget measures and stimpacks.]
As long as they’re not using taxpayer money to do so.
[thought MT caved in on that FR of last week?]
No. He said they’ll have a look at the Alcopops tax again. That leaves them wriggle room to determine their position on it up until the actual vote. I imagine they’ll just let it through though. There’s little point providing the Government with a trigger.
[As long as they’re not using taxpayer money to do so.
54 ltep]
Why not use taxpayers money, it’s giving info to the taxpayer. This argument that the government shouldn’t use money to inform the community is getting ridiculous. Now the papers are saying that they shouldn’t travel to improve Australia’s positions in the world.
[ Boerwar said: “Congrats to Diogenese, whose back of a cigarette packet calculations were far superior to those of Turnbull.
You heard it first on Pollbludger…”]
That’s why I read and occassionaly post here – I have no confidence in most of the MSM (parrots repeating what other parrots have said) and those that have some credibility are still not as reliable as Crikey, Possumn and Poll Bludgers.
I couldn’t agree more with Dogma. However it’s also do to with an underlying doubt that the Liberals exploit about the Labor Party’s inability to run the economy. This is a hangover from the Keating era. This is akin to the Hanson “being overrun by Asians” spiel. It exploits fear and ignorance in some people . This is why I find the whole Turnbull- led agenda so morally repugnant. The major economies around the world are in serious trouble and all he can offer is “lower deficit” under Liberals. He hasn’t come out with ANY alternative. It’s the very system of economics that they espouse that has led to this meltdown : Middle class welfare, little infrastructure spending, erosion of industrial relations etc. The U.S. version of capitalism is one sick puppy . Guy Rundle’s analysis on Q&A was spot on. My message to Rudd would be : keep asking the Liberals –” What is the alternative , a longer and deeper recession ?”
Boerwar @ 27,
[BTW – is your catchment on the inland side of the great divide?]
The catchment that feeds to where I live is the Fitzroy, the second largest in Australia.
McMullan says Nielsen poll may have been flawed
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25499167-12377,00.html
I’d like to point out that my figures on this were far from perfect as I did not know how quickly people would cut consumption after the excise rise on cigs. I overestimated how quickly they would drop, so my revenue figures were a bit under in the short term but in the long-term showed a drop in revenue like Treasury. Turnbull was pretty dumb not to see that coming, especially as it was the only figure he came up with in his Budget reply. Abetz isn’t taking it too well.
[But Senator Abetz says the coalition’s alternative is revenue neutral until 2014 and forecasts after that are inaccurate.
“With great respect to Treasury and this government they don’t get the figures right from week to week, month to month, let alone trying to spin it out past five years,” he told ABC Television.
“This is a desperate attempt by (Treasurer) Wayne Swan to damage our economic credibility.”]
http://livenews.com.au/rss-link/labor-using-treasury-to-attack-oppositions-tobacco-tax-proposal-abetz/2009/5/18/206874
[Why not use taxpayers money, it’s giving info to the taxpayer. This argument that the government shouldn’t use money to inform the community is getting ridiculous. Now the papers are saying that they shouldn’t travel to improve Australia’s positions in the world.]
‘Giving information to the taxpayer’ is the oldest spin in the book when it comes to Government advertising campaigns. I recall the Howard Government claimed the WorkChoices ads were necessary to provide the correct ‘information’ to the public on the new laws.
In reality often ‘information campaigns’ are pushing political messages that political parties should pay for themselves. The public don’t need to be informed there is a deficit, that information has been provided for free readily by the media.
If you’re suggesting the Government should use taxpayer money to explain to us that deficit and debt are not bad (a political message) I will have to disagree with you.
[McMullan says Nielsen poll may have been flawed]
We’ll soon find out. Newspoll is out tonight.
[“This is a desperate attempt by (Treasurer) Wayne Swan to damage our economic credibility.”]
They manage to damage their own credibility easily enough on their own. For months and months the Coalition has been ridiculing Labor for being the party of higher taxes, for their only ideas on solving problems being introducing new taxes etc. and the only substantial part of the budget reply was to suggest an increase in tax.
Dogma – I’m with you. I don’t think Kev & Swannie are explaining things in simple terms.
They all talk in billions for this that and the other – it frightens a lot of people. They need to say the medicare levy only costs $6 or $7 a week to high earners.
They need to say the pension age hasn’t change for 100 years or so. In those days we only lived to 70, if that. Now we have heaps of people over 100.
I’m retired in 2002 (other half nearly carked it) but I would still be working if he was OK. I am quite a few years over the 65 mark but still get asked if I want to head to the office. Some jobs are just made for experience, older people. They can mentor the young ones.
Physical jobs are another matter – I can see a lot of the bluecollar workers having problems even thinking about another 2 years.
But WHY aren’t Labor emphasising the Libs want the same lift.
They can’t waste money on advertising because the hypocrites on the other side will scream and their psychophantic press mates will bleat it loudly too.
Labor need to speak in simple terms sometimes.
This poll is most certainly FIXED by the Labor party! I think Labor are just trying to booby trap Costello into taking the leadership now so they can finish him off now. Costello won’t fall this!
Bree
noone in the Labor party wants to finish Costello off, either now or in the near future.
We really appreciate the job he’s doing right now and hope he will continue.
If he gets to be Leader, yes, we’ll do him like a dinner, but personally, I’m not fussed if this doesn’t happen for the next five years or so.
We want to do him slowly.
[If you’re suggesting the Government should use taxpayer money to explain to us that deficit and debt are not bad (a political message) I will have to disagree with you.]
I thought I made myself clear, but I sometimes what I think and what gets written are two different things.
Obviously people are scared about the deficit, pension age increase and the super cuts. Explaining to people about the reasons for deficits and the measures that the government and treasury are going to do to get out of deficit are also a must. Don’t underestimate how powerful it would be to put people’s minds at ease.
Everyone says governments put spin to every message that their trying to explain. I’m not talking about the $164mil that Howard spent on WC, but a smaller ad campaign. Do you really think that EVERY single message the government puts releases to the media is spin (emphasis on the every), I’m sure that a few a containing facts. Everything cannot be stopped becaused it’s thought of as spin, the public still has the right to information.
With the GFC and recession, these things weren’t caused by the government and the government should be explaining to taxpayers how they’re going to ride this storm and come out the other end.
Thanks BH, you said it better than I was trying to do.
If they put it the way you said it, the message is simple and people move on. What’s happening is that everyone is trying to work out how much of the billions and millions effect them.
[A projected surplus of $18.87billion for that year is now a deficit of $44.53 billion – a turnaround of $63.4 billion.
This is the bit the Coalition will want to ignore. Labor’s spending in 2011-12 is worth $13.2 billion, of which $6.95 billion came from the budget. The remaining $50.2 billion gap is largely Peter Costello’s doing. He left behind a budget structure that couldn’t return to surplus in recovery. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25498284-5013871,00.html
Bree – Costello is probably finished anyway. Don’t think many in his own party are really enthused about him and it shows on his face on most days.
[With the GFC and recession, these things weren’t caused by the government and the government should be explaining to taxpayers how they’re going to ride this storm and come out the other end.]
This is undeniably a political message rather than mere statements of fact. It would be inappropriate for a government to spend taxpayers money ‘explaining’ that they aren’t respsonsible for the economic position of the country.
It would be appropriate to advertise changes to the private health rebate and exactly what difference they will make to individuals, though. Just the facts though, no arguments on why the moves were necessary.
ltep I think you and I are going have to agree to disagree.
Yes, Itep – advertise the changes so that most people can see they will pay nothing extra and that those who will pay are not going to be all that disadvantaged.
We all make choices about private health. I have very wealthy friends who just won’t take it out and are happy to use the public system. They have waited for knee ops without complaining.
The Lib voices are very strong at times and they know exactly how to make lies sound believable. I am constantly amazed at the misnomer’s they spread.
Thank God for George Megalogenis – he works it out factually. I may not be happy when his writing does not suit my mob but at least I know he is genuinely trying to explain things.
His Insider stuff this week was great – we would never have heard it except for George.
From the McMullan article –
[“On these numbers, Kevin Rudd would be returned with exactly the same or very close to the same majority that he’s got in the Parliament right now, so that can hardly be bad news for Labor,” Mr Stirton told Sky News.
Mr Stirton said that while voters did not like the pension age rising to 67, a majority thought the Budget was fair, which meant Labor would not suffer politically.]
Puts it all into context really.
misnomer’s …urrgh!! forget the apostrophe, please
“Opposition parliamentary secretary Mitch Fifield said the Coalition would not celebrate the latest poll.
“I think all corks are staying firmly in place,” Senator Fifield told Sky News.
Code for, the Nielsen results don’t tally with Liberal internal polling?
And then he went on to lie through his teeth – exaggerate, falsify and be his obnoxious self GG
[Code for, the Nielsen results don’t tally with Liberal internal polling?]
Not necessarily GG. Why would you celebrate a poll which suggests you would lose an election if it was held now?
[But Senator Abetz says the coalition’s alternative is revenue neutral until 2014 and forecasts after that are inaccurate.
“With great respect to Treasury and this government they don’t get the figures right from week to week, month to month, let alone trying to spin it out past five years,” he told ABC Television.]
This is odd. So a Turnbull Government would not believe the advice given to it by Treasury? So any information they received which they didn’t like would be ignored?
This little scare might make the Govt think twice about playing with the access age for Super.
With regard to the Alcopops tax I was wondering if there were any in the L&NP emboldened enogh by this poll to change their mind on it and seek to block it. We will know the Newspoll tonight. If the Newspoll confirms this poll then the L&NP may well think there is no risk in blocking that tax.
Gary,
If the Nielsen confirmed internal results then the Libs would be quite chuffed they were possible on the way back. I think there are six degrees of celebration only some of which include alchohol.
The latest idea from Crosby/ Textor is to put doubt in the mind of voters about the accuracy of the advice given to government. Of course such a tactic MAY work well now but if they get back into government anytime soon it could come back to haunt them.
And what do Poll Bludgers think about hearing JWH on the weekend saying that the current deficit position would have been a lot better if Workchoices were still in operation?
Won’t Abetz questions be interesting in Senates Estimates – along with his usual rudeness to Treasury officials.
Was just reading yesterday’s posts.
827 Showson – I reckon Gough will be truly recognised in years to come. I was a bit late to benefit from his free Uni education so had to go after the kids were grown up.
That was a huge boost to kids whose families couldn’t afford to pay for Uni.
Public health again – fantastic. I remember my very elderly grandmother being treated like a second class citizen at RAH before Medicare. It was not a nice time to be sick.
So Gough gets a huge thankyou and then Keating for making sure we deregulated.
I tend to think the Govt doing a short advertising/information campaign on the deficit and budget forth might have been OK if it were made known as part of the budget release. It would have been a pulbic service.
But to do it motivated by political reasons (this poll for example) would be wrong.
[This little scare might make the Govt think twice about playing with the access age for Super.]
Firstly, we don’t know if this poll is a trend or not and secondly, what proof is there that this “result” (which would see the government returned easily if it was replicated at the next election) was because of the changes to the access age for super?
Greensborough Growler AKA ultimate anti-Green Laborite – I notice you haven’t bothered to post in the Fremantle by-election thread. Does it scare you that the Greens continue to grow in popularity?
[And what do Poll Bludgers think about hearing JWH on the weekend saying that the current deficit position would have been a lot better if Workchoices were still in operation?]
This tells us that WorkChoices was all about lowering wages and reducing conditions. From the co-author himself.
bob1234
would point out that the Greens have won by elections before, only to lose the seat again at the next (real) election.
Same thing happens to all political parties – electors know their vote won’t change the govt of the day and feel safe with a protest vote.
[I notice you haven’t bothered to post in the Fremantle by-election thread. Does it scare you that the Greens continue to grow in popularity?]
Hubris at its best. The Greens had better enjoy that seat because they won’t have it after the next state election.
Bob,
By elections are notorious for throwing up aberrant results especially when the outcome does not change the power balance in Parliament. We’ll see how things pan out when there is a full election that has economic issues at the core of the debate. My advice, “Smirk it while you’ve got it”.
George M answer to a blogger in which he says
[“Outside of the financial year we are in, 2008-9, Labor did not “create” any deficit.
PC & the GFC did that all by themselves”]
Why doesn’t Labor beat the Libs around the head with that one.
GB85 .. of course it is dependant on this poll being confirmed in some way. But in anycase I think the issue is a dangerous one for government.
I’m not saying that the poll results is anything to do with Super or even the pension, just that it looks like a narrowing if not an outlier.
IF polls confirm a narrowing then the govt ought to be aware that the issue of Super which is coming up for review is a sensitive one and changing access years has the capacity to put off side many of the over 50s with Super. [the govt has said that changing the Super access year to 67 like the pension is one of the things that they would look at among many others)
[But in anycase I think the issue is a dangerous one for government.]
Not according to this poll.
Does anyone really believe Labor would receive a 58 – 42 result in an election? Surely not.
GB – I think the Govt. will have a bit to spout about in QT when it returns.
Turnbull thinks we shld all have private health insurance and now Howard thinks pay cuts are the answer to the recession. That leaves heaps for spending to keep the place stimulated doesn’t it.
TP – I have a family member who retired at 55 in absolutely fantastic health – took his super and organised his affairs. He’s been idle for 8 years and seems to be bored stiff and miserable. To me he has aged considerably in mind and body – he feels he worked long enough (not physical stuff) and now doesn’t need to do anything, even volunteer community stuff.
I reckon he’s shortened his life and if dementia doesn’t get him then misery will.
Perhaps they can look at some way of giving a bonus if you leave the super in and stay working. If we don’t increase immigration we’ll need extra bodies working.
I also tend to think the Govt hasn’t been clear enough on its Pension changes. Firstly in highlighting its gradual introduction and also that it has nothing to do with Superannuation. People often don’t separate the two in their minds.
The first things I heared people (all over 50s) talking about after budget night was people saying they wouldn’t be able to access their Super.
From what I can gather, this poll was taken over a period of “two months” not a couple of days prior to release.
In that case, there should not have been a substantial variation in public opinion to that expressed in the other fortnightly/ weekly polls.
ie, Neilsen would in reality, be most unlikely to pick up a negative trend in voter intention that the others have not, especially taking the poll over a two month period.
Wondering why the government on the weekend announced the solar power initiative. I hope it wasn’t because their internal polling is showing a similar movement to this Nielsen, and thus the need for a “rallying” announcement.