ACNielsen: 53-47

The first post-budget poll is an ACNielsen survey of 1400 respondents, and it’s given Labor its second weakest poll result since the election of the Rudd government. The first was the same outfit’s 52-48 result from September last year. ACNielsen’s previous survey in March had Labor’s lead at 58-42. The poll finds that:

• Labor’s primary vote is down three points since March to 44 per cent, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent.

• The Coalition has opened up a most unlikely sounding five point primary vote lead in Victoria, after trailing by 20 per cent in March.

• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 69-24 to 64-28.

• Rudd’s approval rating is down 10 points to 64 per cent, and his disapproval is up 10 to 32 per cent. Turnbull’s ratings are unchanged at 43 per cent and 47 per cent.

• While 56 per cent believe the budget to have been fair, only 40 per cent support the budget’s phased increase in the age of pension eligibility from 65 to 67, and 38 per cent say the budget will make them worse off personally. Twenty-three per cent say it will make them better off.

The print edition will presumably feature a full chart with none-too-reliable state breakdowns.

UPDATE: No such budget narrowing from Essential Research, which has Labor’s two-party lead up from 61-39 to 62-38. However, Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down nine points from three weeks ago to 61 per cent, while his disapproval is up eight to 29 per cent. Turnbull is respectively up two to 30 per cent and up one to 49 per cent. Interestingly, fewer people found the budget bad for them personally than had expected to beforehand. Twenty-five per cent say it will make them more likely to vote Coalition against 22 per cent Labor. Peter Brent has ACNielsen’s state, area, gender and age breakdowns here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

717 comments on “ACNielsen: 53-47”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  1. [It’s time to put “never ever” to bed.]
    He SAID IT! The word NEVER has a meaning that we don’t require a philosopher to parse.

  2. [And speaking of tantrums, we never heard of Howard abusing his staff for trivalities like meals and hairdryers. Howard wasn’t nearly as conceited as Rudd.]

    Well the hairdryer story is based on the report of a LIberal MP, so it’s patently bull.

    You may be right about Howard not being conceited. All I know is my “spies” tell me the protective staff much more enjoy the new tennants of the Lodge.

  3. I note with a smile that GP glazed over my previous post on the last page admitting that in the latter half of the Howard government, they believed in magic pudding economics.

    🙂

  4. [ Labor campaigned strongly during 2007 on the theme that the government was wasting the proceeds of the mining boom. $200+ million in ONE YEAR on advertising for example.]

    $200 million is small change by Rudd’s recent spendathons.

    ShowsOn, you are a hopeless hypocrite.

  5. [that in the latter half of the Howard government, they believed in magic pudding economics.]
    Like Howard, G.P. believes in government stimulus spending during booms. He has to defend Howard’s absurd economic policies because he can’t admit Howard could do something wrong.

  6. [How does it “drain” the taxpayer’s purse any more than any other Member of Parliament who has to fly long distances to get to Canberra?]
    Daily? With a helicopter transfer to Sydney airport? Not to mentioned the rejigged security arrangements, staffing etc.

  7. [Is it necessarily a lie to change your mind? ]

    Politicians would like to believe it’s not.

    The public perhaps has a different view.

    What usually happens is whenever a politician brekas a promise his/her supporters, like the devil citing scripture for his own purpose, cite Keyne’s statement of:
    [When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?]

  8. [$200 million is small change by Rudd’s recent spendathons.]
    The Howard government should’ve been cutting spending and / or increasing taxes to curb inflation, instead it spent, spent, and spent, which forced the reserve bank to put up interest rates 6 times in 2007 alone.
    [ShowsOn, you are a hopeless hypocrite.]
    Comments like this prove that you have absolutely no explanation for John Howard’s irresponsible and economically reckless spending in his last two terms.

  9. [Like Howard, G.P. believes in government stimulus spending during booms. He has to defend Howard’s absurd economic policies because he can’t admit Howard could do something wrong.]

    But even when Tony Abbott admits it was all bull?

    [“The one thing that I am inclined to suggest might have changed or developed over the latter part of the Howard government’s term, I think we did start to believe in magic pudding economics,” Mr Abbott said.]

  10. [I note with a smile that GP glazed over my previous post on the last page admitting that in the latter half of the Howard government, they believed in magic pudding economics.]

    Bob, I have never walked away from the fact that some of the spending in the last term of the Howard Government was irresponsible.

    That said, they left the nation’s finances in great shape compared to what they were in 1996 with Keating’s secret black hole.

  11. [But even when Tony Abbott admits it was all bull?]
    G.P. works like this:
    1) Whatever John Howard says or does is right.
    2) John Howard spent far too much during a boom.
    3) Spending too much money during a boom is good.

  12. Any predictions for newspoll tonight?

    I hope the MSM get a big bang for their pre-budget liberal party propaganda.

    I’ll go 2PP 54/46

    PPM 62/22

  13. [Daily? With a helicopter transfer to Sydney airport? Not to mentioned the rejigged security arrangements, staffing etc.]

    You haven’t a foot to stand on given the travel arrangements of the current Government:

    http://au.messages.yahoo.com/news/politics/476029/

    In any event, I have no problem with the Prime Minister’s travel arrangments. Even when the Coalition was criticising Rudd’s travel I declined to criticise. It is part and parcel of the job. If the PM feels more comfortable living in Sydney, so be it. In Canberra, so be it. He’s the PM for goodness sake.

  14. [Bob, I have never walked away from the fact that some of the spending in the last term of the Howard Government was irresponsible.]
    You mean like giving people one off payments when inflation was already at the upper end of the RBA’s target range?
    [That said, they left the nation’s finances in great shape compared to what they were in 1996 with Keating’s secret black hole.]
    A black hole that would’ve been a surplus just 18 months later than what Costello achieved by cutting money from health and education.

  15. Grog, the article link is on the previous page.

    And when Abbott is talking about believing in magic pudding economics, how can one interpret that as wasteful spending? He was clearly meaning that a $20b surplus wasn’t a result of magic Howard economics, rather a mining boom.

    Remember, Menzies never delivered a surplus. The first Liberal surplus came from McMahon, when there was a *gasp* mining boom!

  16. [If the PM feels more comfortable living in Sydney, so be it. In Canberra, so be it. He’s the PM for goodness sake.]
    The Lodge was built as the Prime Minister’s official residence. That is where they should live. If they don’t want to live there, they should go back to being a failed lawyer.

  17. [Remember, Menzies never delivered a surplus. The first Liberal surplus came from McMahon, when there was a *gasp* mining boom!]
    Menzies understood that governments should build public infrastructure, the Howard government felt the only public good was handing out cash during a boom in order to get re-elected. They never considered the effect this would have on inflation and interest rates.

  18. [The Howard government should’ve been cutting spending and / or increasing taxes to curb inflation, instead it spent, spent, and spent, which forced the reserve bank to put up interest rates 6 times in 2007 alone.]

    Inflation was within the target range for the majority of the Howard years. In fact, it was 3% when Howard left office.

    The “inflation genie” was a myth, and you know it.

    Obviously Kevin doesn’t believe it, because he’s spending like money’s going out of fashion. $100 billion in new spending in just eight months. Extraordinary.

  19. [Is it necessarily a lie to change your mind?]

    If he genuinely believed it at the time he said “Never ever” it’s not a lie. It was more of a mistake. Even if he was recklessly indifferent to whether it was going to be true, it’s still not a lie.

    His stance on the GST never bothered me. Plenty of other things did though.

    GG

    I always thought it was funny that Meg Lees and the Dems were killed off due to their GST support and Howard sailed through it. It’s a great lesson in not shafting you base.

    I’m sure you will be understanding when the Greens vote against the ETS.

  20. [Inflation was within the target range for the majority of the Howard years. In fact, it was 3% when Howard left office.

    The “inflation genie” was a myth, and you know it.]
    Tell this to the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Here’s their email address:
    rbainfo@rba.gov.au
    [Obviously Kevin doesn’t believe it, because he’s spending like money’s going out of fashion. $100 billion in new spending in just eight months. Extraordinary.]
    Just like John Howard, you fail to understand that governments should pursue different fiscal policies depending on if the economy is growing and contracting.

    Just like Malcolm Turnbull, you seem to be unable to differentiate between temporary and ongoing budget expenditure.

  21. No 571

    [The Lodge was built as the Prime Minister’s official residence. That is where they should live.]

    It’s a mere tradition. Kirribilli House is an official residence as well. Who actually cares?

    Honestly, if I were criticising Rudd for constantly flying overseas, you’d be rightly refuting my claims. There’s no difference here, except you continue to reveal your rank hypocrisy.

  22. [you seem to be unable to differentiate between temporary and ongoing budget expenditure.]

    Neither can you, since you are implicity endorsing the tax cuts Wayne Swan handed down last Tuesday.

  23. [Neither can you, since you are implicity endorsing the tax cuts Wayne Swan handed down last Tuesday.]
    I oppose them. Malcolm Turnbull is the one who is conveniently ignoring them so he can continue his argument that middle class families should subsidise the private health insurance of millionaires. Of course this is a policy that you support as well.

  24. Gosh, things are moving so quickly here. Dave back at 522 wrote:

    [Hewson is on the record about the tantrums howard used to throw]

    I would like a link to this information please, if anyone can help.

  25. GP

    Inflation on a year to year basis hit 4.0% in March 2006 and 3.9% in June 2006. Imagine what it would have been without the interest rate hikes.

  26. [You haven’t a foot to stand on given the travel arrangements of the current Government:]

    OK, GP point to ONE incident where the Minsiter should not have gone. Just ONE.

    C’mon. How about Garrett – his was the most expensive trip. He went to Chile. It was for the INternaitonal Whaling Commission. What did you want him to do? Hitch hike there? DO you think he chose the location??

    C’mon ante up. Criticise ONE trip as being an irresponsible waste of the taxpayer’s money. Criticise ONE trip as being outside the Minister’s remit.

    All I know is, had Howard won in 07, he’d be off to England in a month’s time for a high powered meeting.

    The Ashes being on would be completely coincidental…

  27. Diogs,

    Howard went to the election on the GST and cannot be held culpable for Lees herding the lemming like Democrats over a precipice.

    I can well remember neighbours and acquaintances telling me how glad they were that the Democrats were there to stop the GST.

    Some of them still can’t look me in the eye.

  28. [It’s a mere tradition. Kirribilli House is an official residence as well. Who actually
    cares?]

    Of course it matters. The British PM doesn’t live at Checkers.

    Imagine if Obama said, you know Camp David is a better place to live, I think we’ll stay there unless I need to be in Washington.

  29. [In most cases, the same goes for Ministers, though I’m less willing to cut them the same amount of slack.]

    I cut them no slack.

    I don’t cut Rudd any slack either. He hasn’t gone anywhere for no reason yet.

    Fact is, the hoops Ministers have to go through to get apporval for overseas travel means they don’t go anywhere unless they absolutely can prove they need to.

    They don’t just get on a plane for the hell of it.

  30. [Kirribilli House has been an official residence since 1956:]

    No one is disputing it. But where’s the capital of the nation??

    If you don’t want to live in Canberra, then don’t apply for the job of being PM.

  31. Cuppa

    I have seen hewson on sky Nooz on several occasions taking about howards tantrums.

    It was usually in the context of a labor figure have bad publicity of a similar nature.

  32. No 590

    Grog, more rubbish.

    In any event, the Australian people couldn’t care less. They re-elected him three times and his residing in Sydney was not a reason for his loss in 2007.

  33. In addition to howard living at kirribilli was the huge additional cost of the RAAF jet taxi service backwards and forwards to canberra

  34. Ian McPhedran, Herald Sun, 19 September 2007:

    [Prime Minister John Howard has set a record for his taxpayer-funded RAAF VIP jet taxi service between Sydney and Canberra.

    Because Mr Howard chooses to live at Kirribilli House on Sydney Harbour and not at the official PM’s residence at The Lodge in Canberra, he uses a VIP jet to commute from home to work and back when Parliament sits.

    During 2006 the flight bill was $187,530 for direct operating costs, such as fuel, spares and crew.

    The full cost is $1.6 million, which includes the lease and overheads, to the RAAF to operate two Boeing 737 business jets and four smaller eight-seat Canadair VIP jets for the Government.]

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22442707-662,00.html

  35. GP, do you really expect us to believe that the profligate spending of Howard did not produce a corresponding increase in inflation?

  36. [Because Mr Howard chooses to live at Kirribilli House on Sydney Harbour and not at the official PM’s residence at The Lodge in Canberra, he uses a VIP jet to commute from home to work and back when Parliament sits.]

    This is inaccurate. Kirribilli House has been an official residence of the PM since 1956. The implication is otherwise in that article.

  37. [They re-elected him three times and his residing in Sydney was not a reason for his loss in 2007.]
    No, it was his economic incompetence that did him in. The economy was booming, but people couldn’t see it with run down health and education sectors, and no action on climate change.

  38. [This is inaccurate. Kirribilli House has been an official residence of the PM since 1956. ]
    G.P., just so you know, we are talking about The Lodge which is in Canberra.

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