Fremantle by-election live

679 comments on “Fremantle by-election live”

1. Can someone tell me what it is with so many ex-Hobart Socialist Alliance types all ending up in Perth? Bainbridge, Emanuel, Ulasowski all certainly ex-Hobart (Wainwright as well? Not sure but the name sounds familiar). Did I really scare them all that far away? 😉

2. Kevin, you’re also right on Wainwright. Former Tas Young Labor state secretary.

3. [Carles should be made leader (possibly after some time to get used to Parliament) to get her a more prominent seat in the Legislative Assembly and be in the same house as the other leaders and thus increase the prominence of the Greens and them not being seen as a upper house party.]

   I agree and also (don’t shoot me) she presents a credible face for the Party as a moderate, and not as some evil feral radical like Giz Watson – and yes that is the perception that some people have of the Greens at the moment – even Bob Brown sahould take note on how Adele behaved during the campaign.

4. I was on the booth in White Gum Valley and had a number of middle aged women of the Doctors wives variety tell me they weren’t sure who to vote for until they saw the poster of Sam Wainwright which convinced them to vote for him.

   I am not sure if they liked his policies or his swarthy good looks.

   I suspect it was the latter as they did not seem to be the nationalise the mines type 🙂

5. [Kevin, you’re also right on Wainwright. Former Tas Young Labor state secretary.]

   Is Sam Wainwright related to City Of Swan Councillor Mick Wainwright and his Brother Steve who unsuccessfully stood for the Midland Ward and is one of Michelle Robert’s Staffters ?

   http://cityofswan.com/default.asp?doc_id=11&parent_id=1&doc_type_id=2&councillor_id=3359

6. Or to Rufus, Martha and Loudon Wainwright?

7. [Or to Rufus, Martha and Loudon Wainwright?]

   Oh you would put in the musical Wainwrights.

   Speaking of which here is the Patriach with an ode which would be msic to our Green Bludgers 🙂

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doqTSev-_lQ

8. [with an ode which would be msic ]

   sthat should be Music – oh and he compares a skunk to a politician you don’t like in the Intro – so it’s on topic 🙂

9. Andrew Landeryou offers his perspective. Touchingly, he also flouts his ban on links to Crikey especially for me.

10. I am always vexed at how Andrew Landeryou and his warmongering lot label Green politicians whose goal is is a world characterised by peace, disarmament and non-violence as “Militant”. 😐 They can surely come up with a more accurate epithet of resentment. Conflating the Greens politics to that of Communists is rather amusing. Apart from bothering to enter the political fray this is what Marx would think of The Greens:
    “The undeveloped state of the class struggle, as well as their own surroundings, causes Socialists of this kind to consider themselves far superior to all class antagonisms. They want to improve the condition of every member of society, even that of the most favored. Hence, they habitually appeal to society at large, without distinction of class; nay, by preference, to the ruling class. For how can people, when once they understand their system, fail to see it in the best possible plan of the best possible state of society? Hence, they reject all political, and especially all revolutionary, action; they wish to attain their ends by peaceful means, and endeavor, by small experiments, necessarily doomed to failure, and by the force of example, to pave the way for the new social Gospel.”
    c/-
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopian_socialism

11. Random thought here. Fremantle just stopped being a safe Labor seat where they drop future ministers and forget about, and the next best idea (Tagliaferri) just failed too. Who the hell do they get to run in 2013 against Carles?

12. [Random thought here. Fremantle just stopped being a safe Labor seat where they drop future ministers and forget about, and the next best idea (Tagliaferri) just failed too. Who the hell do they get to run in 2013 against Carles?]

    Peter Bell or Luc Longley.

13. Well, Robert Taylor has this to say in today’s/tomorrow’s West: “Tagliaferri said yesterday he would continue as an ALP member and hinted that he might contest the seat again in 2013 at the next State election”.

14. [Peter Bell or Luc Longley]

    I understand PB was sounded out this time and politely declined the offer.

15. [Well, Robert Taylor has this to say in today’s/tomorrow’s West: “Tagliaferri said yesterday he would continue as an ALP member and hinted that he might contest the seat again in 2013 at the next State election”.]

    Interesting move, considering Tagliaferri statement last week saying he would retire from council and politics in general.

16. [Interesting move, considering Tagliaferri statement last week saying he would retire from council and politics in general.]

    Uh oh.. I smell a scandal brewing, we can replay those comments on our tv ads.

17. [I understand PB was sounded out this time and politely declined the offer.]

    I thought you meant me at first.

18. [ I understand PB was sounded out this time and politely declined the offer.

    I thought you meant me at first.]

    So did I, but your Facebook friendship with Martin Drum would be placed under intense scrutiny 🙂

19. The same kind of scrutiny as Carles ‘being linked to’ once living the other side of Carrington St, Frank? 😛

    I think Peter Bell lives in Geraldton, anyway. He was doing some weird FIFO thing with the Dockers for the last few months before he retired.

20. [I think Peter Bell lives in Geraldton, anyway. He was doing some weird FIFO thing with the Dockers for the last few months before he retired.]

    Nope, he’s returned from Geardton and is now playing for South Fremantle in the WAFL 🙂

21. As I said before, I think Tagliaferri wound up being a negative for the ALP this time around – he just had too much baggage, though he certainly did better than someone like Kelly would have. They’d be wise to try and coax someone of the ilk of Peter Bell in, or else get a genuine cleanskin candidate with the ability to put up a strong campaign personally.

22. [He was doing some weird FIFO thing ]

    As in Fi Fo Fo Fum?

    [Can someone tell me what it is with so many ex-Hobart Socialist Alliance types all ending up in Perth?]

    The Fourth International decided that the prospects for imminent socialist revolution weren’t looking too good in Hobart (a well-known Menshevik stronghold), so these comrades were transferred to Perth, where, as is well known, the proletariat is seething on the brink of revolt. The stunning 400 votes polled by Comrade Wainwright shows that the workers of Fremantle only need the correct political leadership to rise up and overthrow the bourgeoisie.

23. [Excellent weekend! Daylight saving is put into the bin for GOOD and Labor loses Fremantle!]

    Bree, you and the rest of the rusteds fascinate me. You hate Labor because you claim they are not economic conservatives, yet you prefer the Greens to win a seat rather than Labor?

    I’ve never understood rusted Libs wanting the Greens to beat Labor. They’d prefer something more left wing would they?

    All they care about is party politics rather than what they believe in.

24. All they care about is dishing Labor, they don’t care who does it. That’s why they voted for Carles. Compare this to Labor’s behaviour in 1998, when we saved their skins by preferencing them ahead of One Nation. Warren Truss for one would have lost his seat without our preferences.

25. Congratulations to the Carles campaign team on an impressive win.

    There will be plenty of time for getting stuck back into the to-and-fro of what is the correct (read, according to your perspective) interpretation of the result and the ramifications for party politics in WA.

    For now, I think the only thing that can reasonably be suggested is that the primary vote for Labor remained stable only because the inflow of otherwise Liberal voters equalled the outflow of disenchanted Labor voters. That may be simply stating the bleeding obvious.

26. “Compare this to Labor’s behaviour in 1998, when we saved their skins by preferencing them ahead of One Nation. Warren Truss for one would have lost his seat without our preferences.”

    I’d like to think that this was based upon the ALP realising that One Nation was morally bankrupt rather than any political motive to save skins.

27. And you just wanted to be in Eden-Monaro didn’t you Adam?

28. I think that’s a telling comment, Adam – comparing the Greens to One Nation? The hacks of the Labor Right have been telling people that the Greens are just hippie ferals that they’ve believed their own propaganda.

    Barnett, on the other hand, is smart enough to realise that given the choice, having a Green there is sensible; it’s someone that he’s actually going to be able to negotiate with outside of Labor – same logic as you so vigorously defended when you support the Fielding preference deal, but a little bit more rational in hindsight. As Liberal oppositions have found out elsewhere, they mightn’t like our views on social issues, but on issues like good governance, we’re perfectly capable of working with them to limit Labor excesses.

29. Bule: As you basically said, these results do not fit a general conclusion about which voters from which party went here.

    We won in normally rusted-on Labor territory where we’ve never been seen as a threat before. We also won Liberal East Fremantle.

30. [same logic as you so vigorously defended when you support the Fielding preference deal,]

    I thought the rationale behind the Fielding preference deal is that it was done in the aim of getting more Labor senators elected, rather than to help another party get its person elected.

31. [We won in normally rusted-on Labor territory where we’ve never been seen as a threat before.]

    The Greens got a very good primary vote there at the last election though.

32. [I think that’s a telling comment, Adam – comparing the Greens to One Nation? The hacks of the Labor Right have been telling people that the Greens are just hippie ferals that they’ve believed their own propaganda.]

    Rebecca,

    Your average conservative believes the Greens are Feral. especially when they look and act like that and make totally unrealistic comments and proposals.

    Why do you think there was harfdly any media opportunities involving Giz Watson – Giz would scare the kiddies and most liberals – Adele looks non-threatrening – it’s a fact

    And Colin Barnett would make a deal with Satan if it results in hurting Labor.

33. [I think that’s a telling comment, Adam – comparing the Greens to One Nation? The hacks of the Labor Right have been telling people that the Greens are just hippie ferals that they’ve believed their own propaganda.]

    Oh and it doesn’t help your cause when you’ve got John Butler campaigning for you as well :-), especially when he chose political expdiency in dumping his dand members to record as a solo artist so he could qualify for more awards etc.

34. [We won in normally rusted-on Labor territory where we’ve never been seen as a threat before.]

    Hi Rebecca. I disagree with you on this.

    As far as I can see, the lower house seats where the Greens have consistently been a significant threat to either major party have only been Labor seats, and increasingly this is the case in the safer Labor seats. Two prominent examples of this are Melbourne and Sydney (which some here have been suggesting are the two most likely to go Green at a future federal election).

35. So Frank – are you always this opinionated? Or is just the Greens that really get you going?

    Maybe you could cool it a little on the personal slurs on Giz Watson – for someone so completely un-electable in your eyes, she has done a pretty good job with her fourth term of parliament.

    And really – what do you know about why John Butler might have gone solo? And this reflects poorly on the Greens? Clutching at straws Frank!

36. John Butler is awesome, leave him out of this.

    The Greens won because of increasing inner-city Green ideology and a Labor Party in the trough of a political cycle.

    I tend to agree that labelling the Greens as extremists is counter-productive for the major parties. It makes people look at aspects of the Greens, decide that they like them, and then feel alienated from the majors because they just labelled you an extremist.

    Carles was a good candidate whereas Tags wasn’t perfect. I dare say that good Labor and poor Green candidates would have switched the result. Only time will tell, though it will be a seat to watch at the next WA.

37. Peter Kennedy, speaking to Eoin Cameron makes the point that ALP Branch Members have been upset about the lack of a “Rank & File” voted candidate for both State & Federal Members ever since Kim Beazley Snr retired over 30 years ago, so it’s been a festering sore for the local branch ever since.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2009/05/18/2573176.htm

38. Well I’m not sure if Butler is ‘awesome’, but agree that band politics falls somewhere outside the ambit of the usual range of political discussion on Pollbludger.

39. Bule, I think Rebecca might’ve been talking about the kind of historically Labor regions that aren’t inner city, well-educated etc. Hilton, for example – it’s an absolute hole, like any other poor pre-1970’s outer suburb, and therefore would be expected to get a similarly enormous Labor vote to Kelmscott or Balga or anywhere else you wouldn’t want to be after dark without a good reason. The Greens got 28% there last election. A Possum-style exercise might be to map demographic data across Freo / Willagee / Cockburn, and see how well it correlates to the Greens or Labor vote (or Greens + Mary Jenkins in Cockburn), or if it doesn’t.

40. Oh I see, thanks Bird of paradox. Personally I wouldn’t necessarily have that expectation of Hilton and those like it in the Fremantle electorate because I know that many poorer, reasonably educated people have moved there over the past 10 years simply because it is ‘the best of a bad lot’ in terms of affordability (which has been escalating as an issue over that period), by which I mean closer to Fremantle (and therefore preferable) as opposed to closer to Joondalup, Midland, Armadale or Rockingham.

41. [Bule, I think Rebecca might’ve been talking about the kind of historically Labor regions that aren’t inner city, well-educated etc. Hilton, for example – it’s an absolute hole, like any other poor pre-1970’s outer suburb, and therefore would be expected to get a similarly enormous Labor vote to Kelmscott or Balga or anywhere else you wouldn’t want to be after dark without a good reason. The Greens got 28% there last election. A Possum-style exercise might be to map demographic data across Freo / Willagee / Cockburn, and see how well it correlates to the Greens or Labor vote (or Greens + Mary Jenkins in Cockburn), or if it doesn’t.]

    It would be interesting know whether these areas have young families whose kids attend non-mainstream schools like Spearwood alternative, Lance Holt, Steiner School etc, as normally their parents would be the type who would support green type polices.

42. [Personally I wouldn’t necessarily have that expectation of Hilton and those like it in the Fremantle electorate because I know that many poorer, reasonably educated people have moved there over the past 10 years simply because it is ‘the best of a bad lot’ in terms of affordability (which has been escalating as an issue over that period), by which I mean closer to Fremantle (and therefore preferable) as opposed to closer to Joondalup, Midland, Armadale or Rockingham.]

    Midland people are traditionally ALP voters because of the midland workshops and have VERY long memopries of Richard Court closing them within weeks of becoming Premier – and even the tactic of the Libs putting in the current City of Swan Mayor Charlie Zannino to attract the Italian vote failed. In fact Michelle Roberts increased her vote.

43. Yeah, you’ve got a point there Bule – I know a few people like that, who maybe even have a decent income, who live in the region because it’s cheaper. It’s expensive all over, though – when I lived in Coolbellup, my flatmate owned the place, had bought it off Homeswest in the late 90’s for about $75k (lots of houses in the region are ex-Homewest, sold off by the govt), and several years later nothing sold in Cooby for under $300k (not sure if it’s eased since, but it was ridiculous for a while). Even a house across the street from the big water towers was on the market for something like $350k. Madness.

44. I’ll post this here, because it’s quieter than the other thread. There’s currently an argument going on about the federal seat of Melbourne in 2007, where the Greens came a close third to the Liberals, but leapfrogged them to second on the preferences of the Democrats, Family First etc. I’ve just realised it actually makes a difference to the two parties left in the final count if the parties coming 3rd, and lower on primary vote are excluded in a block, or one at a time – interesting. Could this actually change an election result? (Example: last state election in Freo.)

45. Hypothetically it could, which is probably why we don’t do it. It would be concievable (although perhaps not probable) for a candidate, albeit initially more popular, who was less preferred than another to defeat a candidate who received the most first preferences.

46. Bird of paradox was right, sorry for not making that clear.

    There might have been some demographic change in those areas, but I think the point nonetheless stands that they’re not the sort of areas the Greens have traditionally done well in. The stereotypical areas that the Greens win are those like central Fremantle, St Kilda in Melbourne, and Marrickville in Sydney, all of which represent a certain demographic very strongly.

    They might be growing in places like Hilton, but nowhere near in the same numbers. The fact that Carles could win booths like that suggests that we could potentially become competitive outside of the token one electorate in several states that it’s been up until now. One such example to me, seems like the Victorian state seat of Northcote, where I suspect similar voters have kept the seat strongly in Labor hands in the past despite a fairly rapid growth in typical Green types.

    If we can keep winning over those voters, I think the Greens could start giving Labor a scare well into the inner city, and over the next few elections, start giving hacks in these inner-city seats like Fiona Richardson and Carlo Carli a good scare. Combined with the fact that I think we grabbed a decent chunk of the middle-class vote here, I also think it bodes well for our chances in seats like the state seat of Perth over the next few years.

    This said, I wish Bob Brown would stop building up expectations about federal seats that the Greens cannot possibly hope to meet. There’s no way in hell that the Greens are going to present a serious challenge in seats like Fremantle and Grayndler in 2008, and by claiming that they’re in play, he’s just giving Labor something to crow about when the Greens fall short. It’s conceivable that there might be a challenge in Melbourne, but I wouldn’t give decent odds on it, and it’s politically dumb to be building up expectations there too.

47. Sorry, that should be 20*10* – had a brain lapse.

48. [This said, I wish Bob Brown would stop building up expectations about federal seats that the Greens cannot possibly hope to meet. There’s no way in hell that the Greens are going to present a serious challenge in seats like Fremantle and Grayndler in 2008, and by claiming that they’re in play, he’s just giving Labor something to crow about when the Greens fall short. It’s conceivable that there might be a challenge in Melbourne, but I wouldn’t give decent odds on it, and it’s politically dumb to be building up expectations there too.]

    And The Greens are hypocrites to accuse Labor of taking seats for granted- if that attidude keeps up by both Brown & Carles, I wouldn’t be surprise that this will be a one term wonder result for Fremantle.

49. There is another downside to Brown’s comments: they highlight a trend that is less likely to continue if Labor takes it seriously. One thing the Greens have had going for them in contests like Fremantle and Melbourne at the last federal election was the element of surprise (less so in the by-election, obviously). There is no question that more Labor strategists will now be looking at precisely the kinds of seats that you mention from the perspective of getting caught in a pincer movement from the left and right.

50. Here’s me on the by-election in Crikey.

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