Itchy trigger fingers

Seems Morgan are having one of their occasional weeks off. Plenty of federal preselection action to report, as the parties prepare contingencies for a potential early election:

• The Australian’s Michael Owen reports South Australian Labor is finalising its federal preselections, which “senior factional figures” link to a potential early election. Mia Handshin is keen to run again, either in a second tilt at Sturt or where Nicole Cornes failed in Boothby. Cornes herself has found an interesting new line of work as an industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, but is “unlikely to win preselection”. A “senior ALP figure” nonetheless claims she is a genuine future prospect. Owen also reckons Labor Senator Dana Wortley faces electoral oblivion through “moves to relegate her to an unwinnable third spot”, although it was from that unwinnable position that she actually won her seat in 2004.

• Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam has withdrawn from the contest to succeed Petrio Georgiou as Liberal candidate for Kooyong. He has thrown his support behind industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, who looms as a threat to merchant banker Josh Frydenberg’s long-held designs on the seat. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports Pesutto also has the support of Ted Baillieu, who angered the Frydenberg camp by attending a function they “claim was to support Mr Pesutto”. Wallace also notes the June preselection will be “one of the first carried out under the Liberal Party’s new constitution, which empowers all eligible members within a seat to vote instead of only specially chosen delegates”. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews is told that “many of them … will be swinging votes with a history of supporting Baillieu/Petro or at least having a significant amount of affection for them or an in-built objection to the recruiting enthusiasms of Joshua”.

• Another interesting preselection for the Victorian Liberals looms in the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin, where two former members are hoping to make a comeback. One is Phil Barresi, who lost the seat to Labor’s Mike Symon in 2007. The other is Ken Aldred, whose eccentric reign extended from 1990 until his preselection defeat by Barresi in 1996. Aldred won a preselection ballot in Holt ahead of the 2007 election, but it was overturned by wiser heads in the party. Rounding out the field of known contenders is Deanna Ryall, a “local businesswoman”. Labor holds the seat with a margin of 1.4 per cent.

• New Queensland Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek foreshadows a more “flexible” approach than his predecessor in negotiating fixed four-year terms, improving the prospects for a referendum on the matter during the current term. Langbroek says it is not a priority, but Anna Bligh has apparently put the matter “on the agenda”. A referendum in 1991 for unfixed four-year terms was defeated with a 51.2 per cent no vote.

• Antony Green on the slow death of the election night tally room:

The next South Australian election will be the first conducted without a tallyroom. Both Victoria and NSW have also decided not to hold tallyroms at state elections due in November 2010 and March 2011. These state decisions may yet play a part in deciding whether free to air broadcasters attend the next Federal tallyroom. There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology.

• I am maintaining elsewhere progressively updated posts on two looming electoral events: the May 16 Fremantle by-election and May 2 Tasmanian upper house elections.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

759 comments on “Itchy trigger fingers”

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  1. Socrates

    The actual number of deaths from the “Spanish flu” is highly debated and varied five-fold from 20M to 100M but the wiki article is pretty straight down the line. I might add that the Spanish don’t call it Spanish flu. I think they called it Polish flu.

  2. The spanish Flu in 1919 was mostly deadly to young, fit people and they didn’t have flu vaccines then.

    The reason given was that young, fit people have a much more aggressive immune system than infants or the elderly, and that an overly aggressive reaction to the spanish Flu virus is what killed the young and fit in greater proportion than infants or the eldrely 90 years ago.

  3. BTW I borrowed a book called “Flu” by Gina Kolata off Xanthippe last night. It was written in 1999, prior to SARS and Avian flue, and followed the (then unfashionable) search to understand the causes of the 1918 flu. So far it seems well written and well reasearched. The finding of strains of the 1918 virus in permafrost bodies started in the book but was successfully concluded later.

    The impact of the 1918 pandemic is staggering; it seems to have gotten “lost” in the raction to the end of WWI, but it actually killed more people than WWI. It was very infectious – it spread world wide within six months, even to the Arctic and Pacific Islands.

    There are photos showing trams in US cities in 1918 with every person wearing a face mask, and nobody being permitted to board the tram without one (a mask).

  4. [Dio, I know the quality of Wikipedia varies, please tell if any of the above is rubbish.]

    Always look at the references used.

  8. [ronically, Israel has an outbreak of Swine Flu too.]

    The government is calling it Mexico Flu rather than Swine Flu due to cultural sensitivities.

  9. Eating pork is against Islamic rules.

    Tim Minchin has a song about the middle east (I believe it is “Peace Anthem for Palestine”) with the line “we don`t eat pork, you don`t eat pork, lets not eat pork together”.

  15. [Eating pork is against Islamic rules. ]
    [According to many ancient authorities, the attitude of early Semites to swine was one of reverence as much as disgust. The eating of pig flesh was considered as something special, even privileged and ritualistic. (This mad confusion between the sacred and the profane is found in all faiths at all times). The simultaneous attraction and repulsion derived from an anthropomorphic root: the look of the pig, and the taste of the pig, and the dying yells of the pig, and the evident intelligence of the pig, were too uncomfortably reminiscent of the human. Porcophobia – and porcophilia – thus probably originate in a night-time of human sacrifice and even cannibalism at which the “holy” texts often do more than hint. Nothing optional – from homosexuality to adultery – is ever made punishable unless those who do the prohibiting (and exact the fierce punishments) have a repressed desire to participate.]
    Christopher Hitchens, God is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything, p. 40

  16. Not to put down Christophers objective, fact based assessment of organised religion….

    but I thought the reason that the Muslims originally avoided pork was more based on the fact it was really unhealthy to eat in the 600s….It was included in the Hadith as a result of Muhammed trying to prevent people from dying.

  17. 712

    I am no fan of Senator Conroy, but I listened to his speech at the Press Club today, and I gotta say it was good. He covered the basic points and made his case well without noticeable hyperbole, and gave reasonable answers to the questions.

    But then I would say that, as I am already strongly in favour of the NBN project, and regard it as essential infrastructure for the 21st century. If only we could bring him and Rudd around on their odious and unworkable internet censorship plan…

  18. [but I thought the reason that the Muslims originally avoided pork was more based on the fact it was really unhealthy to eat in the 600s….It was included in the Hadith as a result of Muhammed trying to prevent people from dying.]
    He is arguing directly against secular explanations of that sort.
    [It is argued that the ban was initially rational, since pig meat in hot climates can become rank and develop the worms of trichinosis. This objection… is absurd when applied to the actual conditions… trichinosis is found in all climates, and in fact occurs more in cold that in hot ones.]

  19. [It was included in the Hadith as a result of Muhammed trying to prevent people from dying.]

    My mistake, it wasn’t a hadith, its in the quaran.

    And the bible too (but only the old bits!)

  21. [It is argued that the ban was initially rational, since pig meat in hot climates can become rank and develop the worms of trichinosis. This objection… is absurd when applied to the actual conditions… trichinosis is found in all climates, and in fact occurs more in cold that in hot ones.]

    So his ‘all jews and muslims are secretly hot for pork’ is a better explanation? I’m a staunch atheist, but Hitchen’s arguments about religion are largely absurd.

  22. Parts of China are as hot as the Middle East, at least in summer, and the Chinese have always eaten pork with gusto and without apparent harm to their health. The Chinese word for “meat” actually means “pork” unless otherwise stated.

  23. I’ve always understood it was because they (Jews, Arabs) were from nomadic cultures and pig raising tied you down to the one spot, thus making you fat and lazy and degenerate.

  24. [So his ‘all jews and muslims are secretly hot for pork’ is a better explanation?]
    No, if you read what he wrote, he says 1) eating pork wasn’t always banned 2) there are certain features of pig meat that are similar to human flesh, 3) other features of pigs that resemble human behavior, including the sounds they make when they are slaughtered. 4) the times these rules against eating pig meat were started was a bloody time when extreme violence, human sacrifice, and even cannibalism occurred between people.

    Hitchens is suggesting that one reason these rules started, was because the features of pigs and pig meat resembled that of human flesh being eaten, or burnt, or left to rot.

  25. [1) eating pork wasn’t always banned]

    But predate Islam

    [2) there are certain features of pig meat that are similar to human flesh]

    As ther

  28. Anyway, I can’t be assed.

    The long and the short of it is that hitchens argument is not very convincing. Eating pork was banned in m pre-Islam religions in the region – which could allow for his assesment; however, as these various relgions formed over thousands of years, and some didn’t end up banning pork, it seems a unconvincing that it stems from ancient semites’ reveration of the pig.

    The claim that these views emerged over a ‘ bloody time when extreme violence, human sacrifice, and even cannibalism occurred between people” is fairly spurios. I mean they emerged in the Torah thousands of years before they emerged in the Koran. So were both relgions forged by the sword? I suspect larger societal influences were in play.

    Anyway, if you want Showson, you can have last play. I can’t imagine anyone wants to watch this.

  29. 723 Zoomster,

    I took a biblical history class at university in the US [ “biblical history” = treating the bible as a history book as opposed to a religiou document ] and I was in a 14+ year relationship with my first husband who was/is Jewish. Lots of background information over the years 😀 …… and I’ve always understood it to be simply because God said in the bible words to the effect of not eating those animals with cloven hooves.

  30. [and I’ve always understood it to be simply because God said in the bible words to the effect of not eating those animals with cloven hooves.]

    It’s apparently mentioned in leviticus and deuteronomy..both old testement right?

  32. [and I’ve always understood it to be simply because God said in the bible words to the effect of not eating those animals with cloven hooves.]

    I thought everyone loved a nice goat pie

  34. [The Chinese word for “meat” actually means “pork” unless otherwise stated.]

    Herr Doktor, dont know what dialect you are speaking. But in Mr. Lu’s dialect, meat is “meat” and pork is “pork meat”.

    😆

  36. Bree

    Just because there are still a lot of ex-coalition ministerial staffers seeking employment doesn’t mean no jobs have been created by the stimulus packages. The problem is we also have countervailing forces that are destroying jobs at a faster rate. But if you think that we shouldn’t have any stimulus, well then, lets let the voters decide.

  37. Bree,

    Doctoring the truth. So stupid when you are easily found out.

    “It is an agreement with Aboriginal people with no precedent, and those who signed off on it yesterday, including WA Premier Colin Barnett, Woodside chief executive Don Voelte, Kimberley Land Council chief executive Wayne Bergmann and federal Minister for Resources and Energy Martin Ferguson, all spoke of how far the nation had moved since the land rights crusade at Noonkanbah, where in 1980 an Aboriginal community resisted mining exploration”.

  38. Regarding the WA deal, while I am all for such deals, it maybe the “no precedent” claim is a bit dubious. I thought deals have been struck just last year in NT? they weren’t the first either, with a number of mining companies negotiating to provide training and employment for local Aboriginal people in mining land access deals for some years now.

  39. Bree @ 733,

    Gee you sleep late 😀 ……. check #584 (this same thread) from which I cross post the following little bit.

    [
    Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett has said a number of important steps remained before the hub gained any final approval, and a full environmental impact assessment would not be completed until next year.

    Mr Barnett said the broad agreement marked the start of heritage, environmental and social impact studies within the James Price Point area.
    ]

    Bottom line it is NOT a done deal YET ……… could end up as protracted, if it ever happens at all, as the Gunns mill in Tassie ….

  40. True, Socrates, this isn’t the first deal with traditional land owners for industry jobs but this one is significant because it will create 6000 jobs, at a time when unemployment is growing by the week.

  41. juliem, protests from greenies to block the creation of 6000 jobs will not be popular with WA voters at the next federal election.

  42. Agreed Bree; its a good idea.

    The whole concept of deals with mining companies to provide jobs specifically for Aborigines in remote areas is a very good one IMO. I have met Noel Pearson’s nephew, who has worked on that topic for several years, and the consequent benefits to both the aboriginal community and more widely are undeniable. Its not just a money thing; the sense of self reliance a well paying job brings to those in remote Aboriginal settlements is just as great as in high unemployment areas in western Sydney and Melbourne. i.e. a huge social gain.

  44. Perhaps Bree can tell us how it will be possible to (a) build new buildings at every school in Australia and (b) lay fibre optic cable to every urban household in Australia, without employing anyone?

  46. Bree, if you read C A R E F U L L Y in the lines I included in #739 …..

    Peter Garrett does not equate to “protests from greenies”. Pete is one individual who is the relevant Government minister to boot. One person doesn’t equal in this instance multiple people.

    My reference to the Gunns mill was merely in that the process for approval through Pete’s office was so long and protracted and once procured, had so many conditions attached to it that it will likely mean the mill never gets built. I am merely surmising that when he does address this issue 9 to 15 months in the future that he will put similar extremely restrictive conditions on this venture if he approves it at all.

  48. Adam,

    And that’s the essence. This is good deal for the local people, a good deal for the Companies involved, a good deal for the Feds and a good deal for the local State Government. It’s obviously been negotiated over a long time through governments of different persuasion.

    Colin Barnett has contribution is to show all the business acumen and negotiating skills of someone who bought a winning ticket in Tattslotto.

  49. Yes Glen, on the Fremantle by-election, I would prefer the Greens beat Labor but of course I wouldn’t have said that had the Liberals run a candidate.

  50. The Greens may win the seat in a by-election but in a State election they’d lose it specially if the Libs stand a candidate.

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