Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports no change in Labor’s Newspoll lead from last fortnight: 58-42. Kevin Rudd is steady on 67 per cent as preferred prime minister, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. More to follow. Otherwise:

Essential Research has Labor’s lead down from 61-39 to 60-40. Bonus questions on financial stimulus payments and how they will be spent; who will benefit from the national broadband network (everybody, it seems); and some no-brainers on the banks.

• Antony Green offers a thorough overview of results from the Western Australian election courtesy of the WA Parliamentary Library, which has assembled a page compiling all manner of helpful electoral paraphernalia. Antony calculates the two-party result as 51.9-48.1 to the Liberals.

Ben Raue at the Tally Room has posted the nominees for Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, where state MP Lee Rhiannon is presumably the front-runner, and Victoria, where previous candidates Richard di Natale and David Risstrom stand out in a crowded field. A productive comments thread ensues.

• Also from Ben Raue, Christian Democratic Party MLC Gordon Moyes says he “may accept an invitation from Family First” after falling out with Fred Nile.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. Speaking of Turnbull on the economy and tackling recession, there are two fundamental questions he should be asked in the next sitting:
    – given that he now says infrastructure is the solution (I agree), and that such project may take up to 18 months to get going, why did he say last time that we should “wait and see”?

    – if he is so concerned about debt and jobs, which means we can neither cut spending nor borrow more, WHY did he oppose the revenue measures in the last budget? Couldn’t that revenue have funded the measures he now says we need, without driving up debt? Where does he think the money comes from? Its not like a merchant bank, where you can just fleece the customers more fees.

    Its a simple equation:
    Debt = Tax Revenue – Spending

    So if Spending increases, and Tax Revenue doesn’t, debt must go up. Please explain, Malcolm.

  2. So Pyne ADMITS his role in the campaign? LOL

    “So there’s no doubt in my mind…that the suggestion that I am part of any kind of campaign against her is true.”

  3. Adam,

    Yes, many will stick with you through the thick!

    Keating had it right when he said “You should always back the horse called self interest”. You know it’s running and you know it’s running hard.

  4. Adam

    Sorry I didn’t drop enough sarcasm hints in 1449; I realise it is a stunt. Seriously though, I could see this one backfiring. Aquila is in a beautiful but mountainous area a good hours drive from Rome. I’m not sure how it would go hosting 8 world leaders and all their entourages, security and press corps at the best of times, let alone while half the buildings are still damaged and the rest are full of homeless.

    Maybe the Italian genius for organisation will shine through 😀

  5. Keating also said: “If you want a friend in politics, get a dog.” One of the saddest things I can recall a politician saying. It’s one reason among many why, although I’m happy to work for them, I’d never want to be one.

  6. 1454
    It sort of suggests a competition, though, along the lines of ‘inappropriate places to host world leaders in order to draw their attention to a crisis’.
    Australia could hold one on Ashmore reef (I know it’s all a beat up, but…), the USA one in Afghanistan, etc.

  7. Has the western world got a worse leader then Silvio? His rudeness, corruption, etc seem even to make the late Bush seem acceptable.

  8. Oh Italy.., the funny thing is, he’s the best they’ve got. I mean, they’ve tried the alternative literally and wilfully came back to him….

  9. The Italian left is in a sorry state. They’ve abandoned socialism but can’t think of anything to replace it with. What they need of course is Kevinism, but it may be difficult to translate into Italian.

  10. A particularly revolting human being has finally got what was coming to her.

    [THE corporate career of former James Hardie chairwoman Meredith Hellicar is over.
    In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, Amalgamated Holdings said Ms Hellicar would resign from the board effective as of yesterday.

    The resignation leaves Ms Hellicar with no corporate positions after she quit the board of AMP yesterday.

    The NSW Supreme Court found Ms Hellicar and fellow non-executive directors of James Hardie had breached the Corporations Act by making misleading statements about the company’s ability to pay asbestos compensation.],28124,25379259-36418,00.html

  11. So now the press are seeking out people who say the change to immigration laws means it’s easier to get in here.
    You’ve got to love this BS – “Kevin Rudd, he change everything about the future,” he’s told ABC Radio. “If I go to Australia now, different, different. Maybe accepted. But when John Howard (was the prime minister of) … Australia he said come back to Indonesia.”
    Does that ring true to you?

  12. Looks like I’m going to have to pay my accountant more to hide my income from Mr Rudd. 😉

    [PM prepares wealthy for budget pain to honour pensions pledge

    “Longer term you have to look at what can be afforded by way of additional support from those who are better off,” Mr Rudd said today.

    “A pensioner is not out there earning 150,000 a year. There is a question about fairness in Australia to how you balance it out.

    “We think Australia is all about fairness. People who are at the upper end, over time, perhaps could be in a position to provide greater support.”

    But Mr Rudd also said the Government would not increase taxes as a proportion of gross domestic product, suggesting the “mix” of tax will be changed.

    “There is always going to be possible changes at any time to the taxation mix,” he said. ],25197,25379595-601,00.html

  13. Given that most Australians couldn’t tell you the changes that were made how come these people know what they are, if indeed they do know?

  14. Why would a person seeking to benefit from the “softening” of these laws “risk” having the “softening” changed by coming out with this? Kind of counterproductive don’t you think?

  15. [Given that most Australians couldn’t tell you the changes that were made how come these people know what they are, if indeed they do know?]
    And remember, the Newspoll said that over 50% of people don’t think tougher laws will stop people from coming.

  16. [And remember, the Newspoll said that over 50% of people don’t think tougher laws will stop people from coming.]

    Bah. What would the people know.


  17. Gary

    I’m with you. There’s a very fishy smell about it. There could be a single stupid misinformed person who found a microphone in front of him but it looks like a setup to me.

  18. Woo hoo …… now we’ve got rid of the conservatives in 07 and those who are able will finally start carrying their fair share of the weight. Too many years gone by where the rich get tax breaks and cozy deals at the expense of pensioners and/or families earning less than the FTB thresholds (so receiving FTB). GO Kevin, GO Swannie, Go Tanner; and if the Coalition blocks your budget you shoot them down in a DD 😀

    Rich face higher taxes: RuddApril 24, 2009 – 10:50AM

    The Rudd government may slug high-income earners with higher taxes to bolster its budget and keep rising debt levels within a self-imposed $200 billion limit.

  19. They are saying this stuff because this is what the people-smugglers are telling them so that they will be more willing to pay for passage on their boats, duh. This is the problem for you folks who don’t believe that people-smugglers exist – you have to make up silly media conspiracy stories to make the facts fit your ideas.

  20. It’s also probably what they’re hearing from the relatives or friends already in Australia, who are relaying what “refugee advocates” tell them and what they see and hear in the Australian media. That doesn’t make it true, but it gives it enough credibility to influence the decisions they make.

  21. 1468,

    Yeah, Dio, if you are in the group that Rudd was talking about, you pony up with the cash to either the Feds or your accountant, you chose. Mind you, if its the latter, you might be in a spot of bother if you are caught out months/years after the fact ….

  22. [This is the problem for you folks who don’t believe that people-smugglers exist – you have to make up silly media conspiracy stories to make the facts fit your ideas.]
    What? Who said they didn’t exist? I was questioning this bloke’s account, nothing more nothing less.
    I ask again – “Why would a person seeking to benefit from the “softening” of these laws “risk” having the “softening” changed by coming out with this? Kind of counterproductive don’t you think?”

  23. juliem

    [you pony up with the cash to either the Feds or your accountant]

    I’m giving my cash to my accountant. She’s gorgeous! Don’t tell Mrs D. 😀

  24. Those positive headlines are appearing for Rudd again. “Robin Hood Rudd may slug rich”
    And I really mean positive.

  25. [“Why would a person seeking to benefit from the “softening” of these laws “risk” having the “softening” changed by coming out with this? Kind of counterproductive don’t you think?”]

    I’ve no idea – people don’t always make rational decisions. No doubt Iraqis and Afghanis aren’t as sophisticated as you in making these political judgements. And I ask again: are you saying the ABC or the SMH have fabricated this story?

  26. I heard an Iraqi bloke on RN saying that his rellies in Australia had told him the laws had been softened. The rellies probably got their info from Malcolm & Co.

    Juliem – thanks for message from Judith. I was concerned after watching the DVD my SA friends sent of the ACA program a few weeks ago. One would need to be extremely strong to have to relive that stuff over and over again. I’m glad she is OK.

  27. [And I ask again: are you saying the ABC or the SMH have fabricated this story?]
    I have told you what I’m questioning.

  28. [“Anzac Day is a day of respect and remembrance, a day to mark a defining event for Australia and New Zealand – Gallipoli – where courage and loyalty demonstrated the intrepid character of two young nations, whose heroes now rest in peace in the soil of a friendly country,” Ms Clinton said in a statement.

    “Along with you, we pay our respects and express gratitude to your dedicated troops,” Ms Clinton said.

    “Most importantly, along with you, we remember.” ]

    I know you’re all going to call me nasty names but I just can’t help it.

    “Hillary, on behalf of all Australians I wish to thank you for the courage and fortitude you showed under sniper fire in Bosnia”.

  29. Vera, I am, sort of ….. I’ve got a pull over style that has an open V-neck (it is more of an outer jacket style layer), I’ve a different long sleeve top on underneath it. It was bloody cold in Perth this morning and the first day of the year that I’ve started digging into the long artillery 😀 …..

  30. Not today – but when the Swannies match is on!! It is covered with words of love(!) from Tadhg Kenneally – lucky me.

    A present from a neighbour I helped with some legal docs when he acted for himself. His best mate is close to Tadhg.

    Of course the Swannies scarf hangs on the door all winter with a sign that says “This marriage is interrupted by the Footy Season”. This comes from having a grandfather take me to games from the age of 4 – inbreeding,we call it.

  31. This is a good indication of how the Howard Government operated on the asylum issue and how it was trying to keep the issue and the public’s opinion of “illegal immigration” alive and potent.

    [The immigration official claimed the ONA assessments were undermining his department’s efforts to introduce new policy proposals on the issue.

    At the time, in 2007, both sides of politics were clashing over the morality and effectiveness of the Howard government’s so-called Pacific Solution, under which asylum seekers would be detained offshore on Manus Island and on Nauru while their asylum claims were assessed.

    Immigration believed the ONA was underestimating the gravity of the asylum-seeker issue, despite the fact that – at the time – the flow of boatpeople had dwindled from a high of 4175 in 1999-2000 to only 25 people in 2007-08.

    At least one senior immigration official lashed ONA officers about their judgments, prompting the ONA staff to complain to Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security Ian Carnell that they were being improperly pressured to modify their assessments on asylum seekers. Grubby is an understatement.

    Government sources say Mr Carnell examined the complaints but took no further action, in part because the immigration official involved had left his post and also because the ONA had defied pressure to alter its assessments.

    However, the head of the ONA, Peter Varghese, wrote to his staff after the altercation, telling them to advise him immediately if they were being pressured to doctor their intelligence assessments. ],25197,25378116-5013404,00.html

  32. I’ve noticed recently that News Ltd seems to have at least one story a day challenging the generally accepted theory of global warming and climate change. Today they have at least two.

    Stepping up the attack for the Libs to be able to creditably vote down the Government’s cprs legislation and not lose voter support?

    [Popular acceptance of the widely contested theory that climate catastrophe threatens us because of our clogging the atmosphere with carbon dioxide emissions gains ground with even the most frivolous and deceptive claims for its validity.

    Attempts made to attribute the Victorian bushfires to climate change did not take root. But claims that climate change caused the collapse of an Antarctic ice bridge received worldwide and largely uncritical attention. Collapsing is what ice bridges do and have done for countless millennia],25197,25376116-7583,00.html

    [MANY people think the science of climate change is settled. It isn’t. And the issue is not whether there has been an overall warming during the past century. There has, although it was not uniform and none was observed during the past decade. The geologic record provides us with abundant evidence for such perpetual natural climate variability, from icecaps reaching almost to the equator to none at all, even at the poles.

    The climate debate is, in reality, about a 1.6 watts per square metre or 0.5 per cent discrepancy in the poorly known planetary energy balance.

    Let me explain.

    Without our atmosphere, the Earth would be a frozen ice ball. Natural greenhouse warming, due to atmospheric blanket, raises the temperature by about 33C. At least two-thirds of this warming is attributed to the greenhouse effect of water vapour.

    Water vapour, not carbon dioxide, is by far the most important greenhouse gas. Yet the models treat the global water cycle as just being there, relegating it to a passive agent in the climate system. Energy that is required to drive the water cycle and generate more water vapour must therefore come from somewhere else: the sun, man-made greenhouse gases, other factors or any combination of the above.

    Note, however, that because of the overwhelming importance of water vapour for the greenhouse effect, existing climate models are unlikely to yield a definitive answer about the role of carbon dioxide v the sun, for example, and the answer must be sought in past records.

    The past climate record does indeed resemble the trend in solar output. However, because three decades of satellite data show only limited variability, the solar output would have to be somehow amplified to explain the entire magnitude of the centennial warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change argues that because no amplifier is known, and because the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide did increase from 280 parts per million to 370ppm, man-made greenhouse gases must be responsible for most of the energy imbalance.

    But this is an assumption, an attribution by default, not an actual empirical or experimental proof that carbon dioxide is the driver. Yet such attribution is then taken as a fact in the subsequent complex model calibrations of climate sensitivity to CO2. ],25197,25376454-7583,00.html

  33. Rudd’s cash handouts have worked so well that we are having to build more shops 😉
    [The head of Wesfarmers says he is hopeful of expanding the company’s retail workforce towards the end of the year.

    Wesfarmers owns Coles, Target, K-Mart, Bi-Lo, Liquorland, Officeworks, the hardware chain Bunnings, and a number of coal mines and insurance companies.

    “We’ll be opening a number of new Bunnings stores and Coles stores and Target and K-Mart and Officeworks and the like,” he said.]

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