Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports no change in Labor’s Newspoll lead from last fortnight: 58-42. Kevin Rudd is steady on 67 per cent as preferred prime minister, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. More to follow. Otherwise:

Essential Research has Labor’s lead down from 61-39 to 60-40. Bonus questions on financial stimulus payments and how they will be spent; who will benefit from the national broadband network (everybody, it seems); and some no-brainers on the banks.

• Antony Green offers a thorough overview of results from the Western Australian election courtesy of the WA Parliamentary Library, which has assembled a page compiling all manner of helpful electoral paraphernalia. Antony calculates the two-party result as 51.9-48.1 to the Liberals.

Ben Raue at the Tally Room has posted the nominees for Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, where state MP Lee Rhiannon is presumably the front-runner, and Victoria, where previous candidates Richard di Natale and David Risstrom stand out in a crowded field. A productive comments thread ensues.

• Also from Ben Raue, Christian Democratic Party MLC Gordon Moyes says he “may accept an invitation from Family First” after falling out with Fred Nile.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. Dionysius was a tyrant and Damocles said how great he had it with women, banquets etc. Dionysius asked if he wanted to swap places and they did. Damocles noticed a sword hovering over his head. He decided to swap places back with Dionysius and when he did the sword disappeared.

    True story.

  2. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/23/2551254.htm

    [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has dubbed the Opposition’s Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey the “dodgy brothers” of Australian politics, hitting back at Coalition criticism of his big spending commitments.

    “Unfortunately, Mr Turnbull and Mr Hockey have become the dodgy brothers of Australian politics,” he said.

    “On the one hand, attacking the Australian Government from temporarily borrowing to support infrastructure and jobs, but when pressed themselves, admit that they would borrow $170 billion themselves.

    “Times like this is when you do see some of the shonkiest, snake oil arguments come out about why governments shouldn’t borrow temporarily and shouldn’t engage in temporary deficit in order to support jobs and investment when the private sector is in retreat.”]

    LOL!

  3. Just watching QUADA here in WA. Mesmeralda is catching a catching a belting from all sides. She may love PJ, but it seems to me that PJ has been giving her curry all night. And she seems to stupid to pick up on that?? And some of the facial expressions!! She had better hope that the ALP haven’t got anyone recording this looking for embarrassing stills to use later.

    Emerson seems to be doing reasonably well. Bishops days as Deputy must be numbered i think, but who the hell would want her job.

    PJ O’Rourke was very entertaining which i didnt expect.

  4. What’s with the CM? Do they hate Bligh or what? Bligh decides to take a trade trip and they say they’ve had a “flood” of anti Bligh comments. That “flood” turns out to be 50. LOL

  5. Gary at 1406: If you had a chance to see the Pineapple blog during the Qld election you would have seen acres of CM comment. Every time I think of that rag I want to commit violence. It is singulary the bigeest heap of excrement ever to to be shovelled, add to that pile of manure the fact that the Brisbane ABC morning show host (Madonna King) is the wife of the excretious rags editor you get a sense of what Brisbane and Qld polictical comment is like both print and electronic. I am however LOL because even with this level of malovolence the ALP still flogged the Tories at the election. The CM and ABC are politically irrelevant.

  6. [What’s with the CM? Do they hate Bligh or what? Bligh decides to take a trade trip and they say they’ve had a “flood” of anti Bligh comments. That “flood” turns out to be 50. LOL]

    Sounds a lot like the West with Gallop, and later Carpenter – they hate it whe nthe party they rubbished so hard has won an election.

  7. [I reckon the current federal cabinet is pound for pound the most impressive since John Curtin’s in WW2.]
    I think Hawke’s first cabinet was pretty amazing.

  8. Adam, can you and Penny please get a room? Honestly, this feigned indignation and endless fawning is tiresome.

  9. [That will be a bit hard because Penny Wong is a lesbian.]

    And Adam isn’t 🙂 (but is a member of that commnity) 🙂

  10. [And Adam isn’t 🙂 (but is a member of that commnity) 🙂 ]

    Hey, don’t lump us all in to a “non-straight” community! 😛

  11. Adam

    Yes I have met Penny Wong. Yes I have heard her speak. I have seen her deal wonderfully well with the both the odious cretins and the clever bastards in the Senate(on TV). Yes, she is very, very intelligent. Yes she is personable and likeable. And yes, the ONLY thing that has given me pause in my consistent caning of the dud 5% ETS is the admiration I have for Penny Wong. I would prefer her to Gillard as Rudd’s eventual replacement as Australia’s next Prime Minister, even if she is yet another legal person.

    I have no way of knowing whether she is supporting the 5% ETS because it is her ETS or because it is Cabinet solidarity. I hope it is the latter.

    However, ad hominem arguments are ad hominem arguments, whether for or against.

    I will pass over the technical arguments on the dud 5% ETS.

    The issue remains: in the context of a global response to global warming, how useful is the 5%-15% policy?

    The only useful response to global warming is a global solution. Therefore, the only real game in town is the international negotiations. Therefore Australia should be taking the lead, to the extent possible, in getting these negotiations to a useful threshold.

    No serious climate scientist thinks that Australia’s maximum ambit of 15% meets the criterion of a good global threshold – not one that I know of.

    If there is no general global agreement on something like 20% by 2020, then a 5% ETS seriously misses the consequent appropriate policy focus, which will be global warming adaptation.

    In terms of the politics, if there is a global 20% by 2020 agreement, the 15% is tactically sound because Australia (and the Rudd Government) will be forced into the 20% by 2020 or face boycotts and the like. Rudd will be able to say something like: ‘We have no choice’. Perhaps this is clever politics. It is also free-riding on the efforts of other governments to get something sensible in place. From someone like Rudd, I had expected a bit of leadership and frankly, given the seriousness of the global warming issue, it makes his other international grandstanding look like fluff and feathers.

    If a 20% by 2020 global agreement is not in place, then the obvious thing to do is to go to the Australian people, tell them the highly probable physical, social, economic and biodiversity consequences, tell them that a 5% ETS is a seriously misguided policy setting and will be dropped, and start mapping out and implementing Australia’s adaptation path.

    Let’s hope that the Greens give Rudd the Get Out of Jail Card he so obviously needs on the dud 5% ETS.

  12. [Let’s hope that the Greens give Rudd the Get Out of Jail Card he so obviously needs on the dud 5% ETS.]

    It’s 5-15%. Not 5%.

  13. The court is not impressed with the general allegations put up by the LNP in the Sour grapes claim over it not winning in Chatsworth and has told them to relodge a factual claim. Next hearing has been set down for May 6.

    [In Brisbane’s Court of Disputed Returns on Thursday, lawyer for Ms Caltabiano, Peter Baston, was ordered to re-lodge documents before May 5.

    Justice Roslyn Atkinson said that at present the documents were just generalised allegations and not factual.

    Mr Baston said the documents would be re-lodged.

    “The applicant accepts that we will have to better particulars before proceeding to a final determination,” Mr Baston said.

    The LNP is claiming that some people voted more than once and used the names of people who were not entitled to vote.

    The party also claims, in court documents, that some voters who were entitled to vote were denied a ballot, and that the local returning officer undertook a count “in circumstances where the integrity of the count could not be guaranteed”.

    The matter has been relisted for May 6.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/qld-news/lnp-told-to-prove-electoral-fraud-allegations-20090423-ag35.html

  14. [Japan’s PM Taro Aso must apologise: POWs – THREE Australian prisoners of war used as slave labour in a Japanese coal mine owned by the family of Japan’s current Prime Minister, Taro Aso, are seeking compensation and a personal apology from him.

    In January, Mr Aso acknowledged for the first time that about 300 Allied POWs, including 197 Australians, had been forced to work at the Aso Mining Company’s Yoshikuma Coal Mine in Fukuoka. Mr Aso would later become president of the company but, until three months ago, he maintained the claims could not be substantiated, and because he was four or five years old at the time he had no personal knowledge of it. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25378168-601,00.html

    Are you kidding me? Japan and its PMs would not even apologize for Japan’s War Crimes in Asia and especially for the killing of some 30m Chinese during the invasion of China.

    The Nanking Massacre of 300,000 was simply described as an accident. Aso is a strong supporter of the Yasukuni Shrine and has urged his Emperor to visit the Shrine.

    [BEIJING (AFP) — China said Thursday it was seriously concerned that Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso made an offering to a controversial war shrine, and warned the move could harm bilateral ties.

    The latest flare up over the Yasukuni shrine, which honours Japanese war dead and has long plagued relations between the Asian giants, comes just ahead of Aso’s planned two-day visit to China next week.]

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i8Oy2FrFTtrHM6snWqY9OjCrurSQ

  15. Someone asked the other day “Does anyone actually support Labor’s ETS policy?”. I said about 90% of this forum. It appears I was right. There’s no rational support, just an inherent trust of Labor. Faith is to be admired I suppose.

  16. [Scantily clad Berlusconi grows wings – The premier has no clothes. Silvio Berlusconi appears with a giant pair of wings and little else in a new work of art, an equally scantily clad female minister next to him in the composition that is creating a sensation.

    “I did it as a joke!” the artist, Filippo Panseca, said on Tuesday. The work is all the more controversial because the minister portrayed next to the Italian premier, Mara Carfagna, had been on the receiving end of a Berlusconi compliment two years ago.

    “If I weren’t married I would marry you immediately,” Berlusconi reportedly said to the woman, a 33-year-old former TV starlet who currently serves as minister for equal opportunities. The comment at the time enraged Berlusconi’s wife, who publicly demanded an apology.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/entertainemnt/arts/2009/04/24/1240079834786.html

    Is this the Sarkozy desease turning Italian or the other way around. Is Berny getting his equal opportunities?

    TV Starlet:

  17. I continue to be amazed at how bad Turnbull is as opposition leader. He supported the first stimulus, now he thinks he didnt work, he argued for tax cuts not spending then the IMF said no deal, so now he arguing infrastructure not handouts. He doesnt know if he is Arthur or Martha. By the way, the second stimulus is 70% INFRASTRUCTURE anyway- is he lying or just plain dumb??

  18. That’s because the sole operating principle of this opposition is “Oppose everything Rudd does,” regardless of logic or consistency. You watch, they will oppose the pension rise in the budget, after having spent last year waving tins of dog food around.

  19. [That’s because the sole operating principle of this opposition is “Oppose everything Rudd does,” regardless of logic or consistency. You watch, they will oppose the pension rise in the budget, after having spent last year waving tins of dog food around.]

    I think Turnbull is banking on people not really caring or remembering how the Libs vote. Just what their public stance is. That way, if things go further south, he can say he was always against it…..

    In regards to the pension payment, this will manifest in him being against it, but passing it because it’s in the budget and he doesn’t want to threaten supply.

  20. Stimulated this morning!

    I’m giving $100 each to nine of my staff, spreading it around as much as possible.

    Spouse will not be stimulated (fiscal comment, not medical).

  21. You can press printscreen on your keyboard which will take a snapshot of whatever is on your screen and then open about a program like MS Pain, click paste and then you can use the cut tool to extract the picture.

  22. Pyne at Breakfast Politics:

    [“The first thing is: let’s be absolutely unambiguous about this. I am not a member of any group that is undermining Julie Bishop. We’ll be completely clear. I am 100% behind Julie Bishop. I support her as Deputy Leader. If there was a ballot for Deputy Leader tomorrow I would not be a candidate, and I would be supporting Julie Bishop. So there’s no doubt in my mind – or Julie Bishop’s mind by the way, who I speak to very regularly because we are good friends – that the suggestion that I am part of any kind of campaign against her is true.”]

    Um, read that last sentence again, Christopher. Who says grammar doesn’t matter?

  23. You can save it as any format you want.

    I did it about 5 seconds ago. Just go “save us” and pick your format from the drop down menu.

  24. Re Zille, ah I see, yes that’s correct. It’s odd that their national opposition leader is actually running for state premier. It shows they don’t have a serious opposition and won’t have until they find a credible black leader to lead it.

  25. There’s a good little (freeware) picture viewing & basic editing program called Irfanview that will do the trick too, if you don’t like messing about with MSpaint.

  26. [It’s odd that their national opposition leader is actually running for state premier.]

    I think that’s due to the fact that the Premiership of Western Cape is the only major office in the country that the DA actually has a reasonable shot of winning. The rest of the country are ANC strongholds (including Natal now).

  27. If there was a ballot for deputy leader tomorrow, would Bishop stand? What if it wasn’t tomorrow? Being a “good friend”. Is that a facebook thing?

    Why does Pyne think it necessary to profess this mea culprit?

  28. Berlusconi has moved the G8 summit from Sardinia to earthquake hit Aquila to focus attention on their reconstruction:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/24/2551494.htm?section=world

    It’ll be fun for the world leaders there, perhaps in tents amoung all the ruins, sort of like a camping trip. Maybe they will pose the group photos in boy-scout uniforms?

    At least this isn’t a thinly veiled attempt to make up for his previous gaff and show he cares.

  29. [At least this isn’t a thinly veiled attempt to make up for his previous gaff and show he cares.]

    I think you’ll find it is. Has anyone seen the classic video of him keeping Merkel waiting while he takes a phone call?

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