Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports no change in Labor’s Newspoll lead from last fortnight: 58-42. Kevin Rudd is steady on 67 per cent as preferred prime minister, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. More to follow. Otherwise:

• Essential Research has Labor’s lead down from 61-39 to 60-40. Bonus questions on financial stimulus payments and how they will be spent; who will benefit from the national broadband network (everybody, it seems); and some no-brainers on the banks.

• Antony Green offers a thorough overview of results from the Western Australian election courtesy of the WA Parliamentary Library, which has assembled a page compiling all manner of helpful electoral paraphernalia. Antony calculates the two-party result as 51.9-48.1 to the Liberals.

• Ben Raue at the Tally Room has posted the nominees for Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, where state MP Lee Rhiannon is presumably the front-runner, and Victoria, where previous candidates Richard di Natale and David Risstrom stand out in a crowded field. A productive comments thread ensues.

• Also from Ben Raue, Christian Democratic Party MLC Gordon Moyes says he “may accept an invitation from Family First” after falling out with Fred Nile.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. Well, I’ve benn away from the hurly-burly all day and I must say, I’m chuffed.

    Will nothing dent the facade of My. Hyde, er, Rude, er, Jekyll?

  3. This is GREAT News!!! For Malcolm Turnbull, Andrew Bolt, Piers Akerman and all the other racist bigots out there. I’m being sarky of course.

  6. The cover-up noises being made by the various noise making devices may actually damage them. From a sample of one conservative voter in my house the reaction was pretty hostile. The take-away from the headlines and sound-bites was that these ~people~ are somehow accusing the Navy of causing the explosion.

  9. Ha–ha-ha-ha-ha-ha, ho-ho-ho-ho-ho-ho, he-he-he-he-he!

    [THE Rudd Government has maintained its lead over the Coalition despite a concerted political attack from the Opposition that changes to the Government’s treatment of asylum seekers.]

    Oh yes, we were expecting a landslide back to the Libs on this one. But Mr. Rude has defied them, despite the political attack from theOpposition.

    Oh, the Humanity!

  10. HA HA The government completely vindicated, Turnball and the Liberals shown up as racist, zenophobic, opportunistic gits!
    Methinks demonising refugees doesn’t work electorally in 2009!

  11. The one-point advance in Turnbull’s PPM is within the Margin of Error, so statistically nothing has changed. The numbers must surely be being counted soon; his future must be looking uncertain.

    Pressure will mount on Costello, who must, within weeks, commit to either staying or going. Should he commit to staying he can hardly avoid being drafted, a prospect which I’d say sends shivers down his spine… (Spine! What spine!?)

  12. BB,

    And all the Government has done is stick to procedure, refuse to exaggerate the situation and treated the injured with dignity and humanity.

    That Rudd sure is a tricky so and so.

  17. Was Costello the shiver looking for a spine to go down? Nah, think that was Hewson.
    Oh, Keating!!

    Yes, GG, Rudd does use those ‘mean and tricky’ measured approaches — the swine.

  22. [Is it too late to talk Brendan out of retirement?]

    Glen, Brendan is my local member and his office is just down the road. will see what i can do tomorrow

    😀

  25. Good idea, Evan – let’s see if we can guess the next Liberal ‘scandal’.

    Kevin Rudd’s mother cheated at bingo? Jasper the dog is a transexual? Therese held a slumber party at The Lodge at taxpayers’ expense?

    I can see Malcolm looking very grave and concerned (whilst not actually committing himself to anything) about any of these.

  28. …I hear the gutter at Kings Cross at 3 am in the morning is also a good bet.

    I do miss him, you know. Malcolm isn’t at all funny.

  29. Adam @ 1265 (previous thread)
    [Has Obama said this? About the Green Line, I mean?]

    No, not publicly anyway, as far as I know, but Mead’s line (which rings true with the Obama approach so far) is that Obama may be able to engage the Palestinians in accepting the idea – there aren’t any new silver bullets as to how things can be arranged to settle everything:
    [“He cannot expand the Holy Land to give each people the territory it wants; he cannot create another Temple Mount, or Noble Sanctuary, to give each side its own holy site…”]
    but there is an opportunity now to engage more realistically with the various Palestinian groups and avoid the pitfalls of the past, for example:

    [“U.S. negotiators during the Clinton administration, assuming that Yasir Arafat, then chair of the Palestine Liberation Organization, controlled Palestinian public opinion, reduced the matter of clinching Palestinian support for peace to getting Arafat’s signature on the dotted line. This was a very damaging mistake. Now, the United States must focus on swaying Palestinian public opinion in favor of peace — especially since current Palestinian leaders have none of Arafat’s power or prestige.”]

  34. If when the full Newspoll graphic comes out tomorrow, the dissatisfaction rate vs satisfaction rate is showing a widening gap then we can wave Malcolm goodbye. It defies any sane definition of Leadership to have a Dissatisfaction rate higher than the leader’s Satisfaction rate.

  38. Tony Jones was at his assertive worst tonight on Lateline tonight trying to bully Bob Debus into answering questions that he could not and should not answer about the boat fire. Seeming to have no concept of the need for a proper inquiry into what might turn out to be a criminal matter, Jones persisted in trying to extract details from Debus that will emerge only when the enquiry is complete. Debus quietly but determinedly stuck to his guns and eventually Jones gave up, seeming to be satisfied only after Debus indicated that there might be thousands of asylum seekers still in Indonesia hoping to come to Australia. Expect that to be headlines on ABC, and maybe elsewhere, tomorrow.

  39. [It would have been funny if Howard did stay on after 2007 ]

    Glen

    I dont know if you remember but before 2007 howard was touted as looking for a safer seat.

    Now if in some nefarious way he was still mucking around at the edges I wouldnt put it past howard to comeback in an electorate nearby.

    In saying that, it also offers the delicious idea that costello is awaiting to see what howards intentions are, before costello makes a move.
    That would explain in part costello’s dithering
    😉

  41. I thought I heard on Lateline that Turnbull’s disapproval rating had increased by 4%.

    If so, then his strategy is definitely not working.

  42. So the Liberals now consider any mention of a recession is a diversion from the supposedly more important asylum seeker problem?
    How insulting to the unemployed and soon to be unemployed!

  43. Akerman will be taking the news hard. I expect him to resurrect the Heiner Affair with a vengeance. (If you can’t get rid of Rudd using the democratic process, try another means).

  45. If it is correct that the dog whistle may only work if your in govt, maybe. And the indications are that it has done no good so far for Turnbull then the Govt may be happy to sit back and quietly watch Turnbull ruin himself whilst the go about their business in a professional way.

    If you leave them alone too long with an issue it is inevitable that they push too far and make themselves the issue.

  46. No 32

    The sad thing about the current situation is that at least Nelson took a stand on issues and was passionate. Malcolm is terse and moribund by comparison.

  48. If his strategy consists of opposing everything just for the sake of it, not providing any decent alternative policies and calling the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression the “Rudd Recession,” it’s no wonder why his strategy is not working.

  50. No 38

    Given that many key witnesses are in hospital, it will be months before the inquiry reveals anything. Debus should be full and frank with the information he has in his possession.

    We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come.

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