Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.

Elsewhere:

• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  2. Be afraid, be very very afraid:

    [CHINESE filmmaker Zhang Yimou will start shooting a new movie in late May or June, his assistant said on Monday, marking the ‘Raise the Red Lantern’ director’s first project since designing the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics………. China’s government has appointed Zhang as director of a gala celebrating the communist regime’s 60th anniversary on Oct. 1. ]

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Lifestyle/Story/STIStory_366029.html

    Especially now that we will be dragged into recession according to St. Kevin. According to Skynoooos, this is to shift attention away from the problem St. Kevin has with the Qjumpers.

  3. [Thus a person who enters Australia illegally is an unlawful non-citizen.]
    But not necessarily. A student could arrive via plane, enrol at a uni, then drop out of uni and work and they would be an unlawful non-citizen. If the person isn’t attending an accredited education institution their student visa will be automatically cancelled, thus making them an illegal immigrant.

    Same goes for people on holiday visas who start working. In fact Smokey Robinson got in trouble for this a few years ago. He came out here on a tourist visa, but was actually doing concerts, which meant he was in contravention of his visa conditions, and had to apply for a work visa.
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22806535-5006002,00.html

    So, for the period that Robinson was in Australia working, instead of touring. He was an unlawful non-citizen because he didn’t have a valid visa applicable to his reason for being in the country.

  4. So everyone knows and can check them out yourselves if you wish to.

    Migration Act 1958 and Migration Regulations 1994

    s13 – defines a non citizen without a visa as an “Unlawful Non Citizen”.
    s36 – provides for a class of visas to be know as protection visas
    s42 – provides that persons must have a visa for travel to Australia
    s43 – Provides that entry must usually be made at a Port
    s46A – Valid visa applications by offshore entry persons
    s65A – Time limits on decision on protection visa
    s91R – 91Y Extra Provisions relating to Protection Visas
    s411 – RRT reviewable decisions
    Item 1401 schedule 1 Regulations – Requirements for Class XA (Protection Visa) Application.
    Schedule 2, Subclass 866 – clauses 866.1 – 866.7 Criteria relating to grant of a Protection Visa.

  5. Hmmm – an interesting language point. From Diogenes’ link is:

    [It seems that something illegal is expressly proscribed by statute, and something unlawful is just not expressly authorized.]

    It seems a little more complex. An ‘illegal’ action is in conflict with a law.

    An ‘unlawful’ action can be in conflict with a law, but not necessarily. It has a broader meaning, including actions not specifically proscribed or addressed by a law. The term ‘unlawful’ is often used to express a moral judgement, interchangeable with ‘improper’.

  6. [It seems that something illegal is expressly proscribed by statute, and something unlawful is just not expressly authorized.]
    Ooops, I wrote that they were the opposite.

  8. I note that Turnbull has given himself wriggle room on TPVs, he said they should be on the “top of the agenda” not that they should be re-introduced.

    I guess it depends on which rabble faction wins. 😉

  10. Showson @ 1153

    Paragraph 1 right
    Paragraph 3 wrong. To become an unlawful non citizen his tourist visa would have to have been cancelled at which time he would become ineligible to apply for a work visa subject to section 48 of the Act.

  12. showsOn,

    Sorry re read your comment paragraph 1 is wrong as well. The act of dropping out of uni does not make them an unlawful non citizen, the auto cancellation of the visa does. There is no such thing as an illegal immigrant under the provisions of the current Act.

  13. Finns 1159
    Smart pre-emptive move by Rudd managing voters expectations and likely media shitstorm when the dreaded double negative quarters occur and the R word is on every front page.

    ruawake 1161
    The Libs will make every boat a winner. 34% today, after 6 more boats it will be 40%.
    You know the Libs are back when Kevin Andrews is back from purgatory and in the media…

  15. TP

    Read the Geodynamics link, for which thankyou.
    I studied the photographs. They are in what is normally very dry country out there and it looks like it is now normally very dry country having a bad drought.

    Where are they getting their water from?

    An issue for hot rocks energy in Australia is finding spots where the hot rocks overlap with a good reliable supply of lots of water. Another issue is that the price of water is only going to go in one direction.

  16. [Italy has granted permission for a Turkish cargo ship carrying about 140 rescued asylum seekers to dock in one of its ports.

    The decision ends a four-day stand-off with Malta over the fate of the would-be migrants.

    Italy’s Foreign Minister says the deal was reached after intervention by the President of the European Commission, who spoke to the prime ministers of Italy and Malta.

    The cargo ship spent four days in choppy Mediterranean waters near the small Italian island of Lampedusa while Italy and Malta refused to accept the asylum seekers, who had been plucked from two boats.]

    I wonder if Italy or Malta have TPVs ?

  18. Cusack @ 1082

    Now, let’s see, will the country folk welcome with open arms for all the city folk when the capital cities become unlivable?

    By the time this happens, Australian cities will have drained all sorts of resources out of their hinterlands for the better part of three to six centuries. The farms will mostly be agribusinesses owned by o/s interests.

    City folk routinely work on the assumption that country folk have made a choice to live out there and that therefore they will receive a relatively poorer level of servicing of every sort.

    City folk for several centuries will have mocked the ignorance of country folk, all that hay-seed st/hick uff.

    Drought is when city folk cannot water their lawns without building desalination plants or North/South pipelines.

    I reckon some country folk will forgive and forget. The rest will have long memories.

    On the other hand, by the time the cities inundate, the bush might not be all that habitable itself. Most of the farming lands in Australia will likely have become unlivable because of droughts and temperature increases. Some areas will be wetter, of course. It is going to depend on how well and how quickly we can keep rebuilding agriculture infrastructure in different spots in Australia. The main problems will be ROI and that investment risk management will be excruciately difficult to figure out – as it is the case right now in the Murray Darling Basin.

  19. TP @ 1167
    Very glad to hear it.

    I wish them well – even with government subsidies they are in extreme venture capital country.

  20. Malcolm’s latest is that Rudd announcing the bleedin’ obvious – we are in recession – is to distract attention from border security.

    He may be correct, but oppositions do not set the agenda. Has he realised the rabble lost the election? Dill

  21. Adam @ 1063

    That map is great fun but it is wrong at certain calibrations.

    The Dutch are already spending squillions on strengthening and raising the dykes and it will take more than a 1 M rise for them to get wet feet. Beyond that, they look like they are trying to delay the inevitable.

    The other thing is that it is sensitive to inundation, as such, rather than to the effects of back pressure of small rises in sea level on coastal water tables.

    Queenslanders might want to think about how sea level rise will cause back pressure on highly acidic water tables that underly a lot of their coastal farmlands and towns.

    Sydney-siders might want to do the same thing for industrial pollutants sitting underneath lots of their suburbs.

    Perth mob might want to think about the Gnangara mound and saline intrustion with a even a metre increase in height.

    Adelaide mob might want to think about what salinity will do to the infrastructure they have built on all that low-lying ‘reclaimed’ land.

    Melbourne ditto.

    Hobart and Darwin will be able to enjoy a bit of giggle.

  23. Turnball in the guise of “asylum seeker basher” looks very unconvincing to me, he’s obviously trying to keep the far right nutters in his party on side, but the shame is that the last of his progressive principles have been flushed down the loo.

  25. Let’s see. Canberra…

    The Murray Darling Basin Storages are at 10%. This is less than what is needed for critical human needs for a year…

    Canberrans are in the Murray Darling Basin, along with another 1.7 million people.

    Canberrans do get first crack at the Murrumbidgee but I suspect that they will be in trouble long before some of the other capital cities.

  28. We can always drink our lake. Then we can levy a water tribute on the rest of you.

    But that’s the general effect you mean? Rising water levels cause a general back-flow of everything that currently flows downwards and outwards?

  32. Adam

    Yep. Rising water tables and probably greater amplitude of extremes during storms and such like are very likely to be the first things that impact on coastal areas.

    Unfortunately it is difficult to get people to think about water tables which will rise at almost imperceptible rates.

    The general principles are very well known in salinity management circles.

    As a practical example, you may have seen footage of Pacific Islanders sitting on their stilt house stoops watching the water ooze up through their coralline soils. Their low lying crops have long since gone because of the salt, and the sewage-type stuff is rising back up to haunt them.

    (BTW, unlike Gore, I am not ascribing this sea level rise to global warming. There are significant natural variations in regional sea levels.)

  33. Heaven & Hell

    HEAVEN is where:
    The police are British
    The chefs Italian
    The mechanics are German
    The lovers are French
    and it’s all organised by the Swiss

    HELL is where:
    The police are German
    The chefs are British
    The mechanics are French
    The lovers are Swiss
    and it’s all organised by the Italians!!

  34. As for drinking the lake, with all the Major’s Creek copper mine heavy metals sitting in the flooded bed of the Molongolo, and all the urban drainage flowing into it, good luck.

  35. Boerwar:

    Hobart and Darwin will be able to enjoy a bit of giggle.

    Armidale NSW also – we may become a beachside community, at 1000 m elevation.

    Well, not quite, but the coast may well start at Bellingen.

  36. What the hell is going on. Who does this Obama think he is? JC or something?

    He wants to talk to the Iranians. He wants to rid the world of nuclear weapons. He wants to hold discussions with the Cubans. He is shaking hands with Hugo Chavez (Chavez called dubya the devil. Satan would still be spewing over Dubya being compared to him).

    It’s obscene I tell you, obscene. 😉

  37. Boerwar:
    [(BTW, unlike Gore, I am not ascribing this sea level rise to global warming. There are significant natural variations in regional sea levels.)]

    Tell me you are not serious. Please.

    There are only a few reasons sea level rises, the most significant being:

    1) the land sinks
    2) there is more water in the sea
    3) the sea becomes warmer, and the water expands.

    1) is a local event, as in the south of england. It is tipping downwards as Scotland rises isostatically as a result of the ice melting circa ten thousand years ago at the end of the last ice age. They’ve put in surge protectors in the Thames as a stopgap measure.

    2) and 3) are what is happening as we speak. Greenland is contributing one cubic kilometre of water to the ocean every day and a half because of melting of the ice cap.

    What natural variations are you referring to? I’d be interested to know.

  38. Could Nathan Rees have a rabbit in his hat that Howard never had? Could Rees come up with the mother of all wedges which will guarantee him victory in 2011?

    —Free public transport for NSW—

    Forget what they may say to the pollsters. The majority will dead-set vote for it!

  39. I was thinking of Chiang Mai or Luang Prabang as good places to eke out my twilight years in the post apocalypse years. High, cool, a long way from the sea and urban centres, grow their own food.

  40. [is a local event, as in the south of england. It is tipping downwards as Scotland rises isostatically as a result of the ice melting circa ten thousand years ago at the end of the last ice age.]

    Is there any chance this will accelerate until Great Britain is standing on end with Kent at the bottom of the Channel and Scotland sticking out into space? Then all the Poms would slide into the sea and we could keep the Ashes for ever.

  41. On ABC new Uhlmann says Rudd is struggling with the boat blast.

    Yep he’s letting police carry out an investigation, and he’s not commenting on hearsay and rumour.

    Struggling. Geez, how can this country run with such a leader?

  43. I am watching it Grog. Uhlmann was right about one thing. Rudd’s position is so strong that he can freely talk about the economy and recession.

    Turnbull is great for Labor. Could well be the best lightweight to have ever entered parliament.

  45. GG, this is the Oriental Version.

    Heaven & Hell

    HEAVEN is where:
    The police are Indian
    The chefs Chinese
    The mechanics are Japanese
    The lovers are Indonesian
    and it’s all organised by the Singaporean!!!

    HELL is where:
    The police are Japanese
    The chefs are Singaporean
    The mechanics are Indian
    The lovers are Chinese
    and it’s all organised by the Indonesian!!

  46. Don

    Oops, I was not being clear. I was not talking about the overall sea level but about regional variations – which can go up and down. I agree with the points you have made.

    Within and overall rise, regional sea levels can still rise further than the average or fall depending on factors other than what is happening to the overall sea level.

    I don’t think that the overall sea levels rising as a result of global warming are nearly enough to explain what is happening to some pacific islands.

  49. Centre:
    [Turnbull is great for Labor. Could well be the best lightweight to have ever entered parliament.]

    Agreed he is great for Labor.

    But where did he go wrong? He seemed like the great white (!) hope of the Libs. Bright, in favour of an Oz republic, rich, a good speaker.

    I honestly can’t work out what the problem is. Maybe he tried to please too many different factions, and ended up pleasing none? I suspect that if he just said what he thought, he’d be a lot better off, and let the devil take the hindmost, as Saint Kevin seems to do.

    Poor bugger can’t take a trick at the moment, even with children overboard handed to him on a platter.

  50. Grog @ 1191 it’s ABC don’t forget. It’s always;
    Liberals … demand, accuse, get tough, slam, sun shines outa bums
    Labor ….. defend, deny, under pressure, struggling, refuse to answer, how dare you prefer Rudd when we keep telling you how bad he is?

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