Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports Labor’s lead in the latest fortnightly Newspoll is up from 56-44 to 58-42. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up two points to 67 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down two to 18 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has exchanged five points of disapproval (down to 21 per cent) for five of approval (up to 68 per cent), while Turnbull’s disapproval exceeds his approval for the first time (42 per cent to 39 per cent). Also featured are questions on foreign ownership of Australian mineral companies (it’s bad).


• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 63-37. The other questions relate to Australia’s international relations, in particular Kevin Rudd’s handling thereof (67 per cent approve), the state of our relations with China and the United States, and the countries respondents feel “are most like Australians in their attitudes and the way they see the world”.

• Perth’s ABC TV news yesterday reported that litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer plans to bankroll a campaign by the WA Nationals to win a Senate seat at the next federal election – something they haven’t succeeded in doing since 1975. No word on who the candidate might be. Former Deputy Premier Hendy Cowan didn’t have any luck in 2001, but he did have Graeme Campbell/One Nation to contend with on that occasion. Their subsequent efforts have been half-hearted.

• The ABC reports the WA Nationals are insisting on a precisely fixed date for the state’s elections, contrary to Premier Colin Barnett’s policy of allowing flexibility in the timing of elections in February or March “in case of natural disasters”.

• In yet more Western Australian news, Antony Green has a page up on the state’s May 16 daylight savings referendum. The Poll Bludger’s page on the concurrent Fremantle by-election is in business here.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee will conduct an inquiry into whether the Electoral Act should be amended to expand the scope of the provision prohibiting misleading electoral material. At present this refers expressly to material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote”, and is thus narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong party. The Victorian Electoral Commission rejected a complaint from independent Kororoit by-election candidate Les Twentyman about a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals”, but its report on the by-election suggested parliament consider addressing “an undesirable trend for candidates to take advantage or build on community misunderstandings of preferential voting with confusing statements”.

• Ben Raue at the Tally Room has started an election wiki.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,460 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. I would be more interested in reading what the relevant experts say of it rather than economists and politicians who are going struggle understanding just what it will all mean. And I suspect economists and politicians should be doing the same before they pass judgment.

  2. For those interested there is a forum at Whirpool on this already running into its 5th thread. Probably a record even for PB.

    Amongst all the talk will be some wisdom no doubt.

    Each thread number is closed as it gets too big and new part created.

    Here are the threads in reverse order 5,4,3,2,1

  3. TP
    funnilt enough I post at wpool.
    the level of commentary ism much more informed on ICT than here obviously

    The funny thing is that the libs die a natural death on such fora as their lack of tech knowledge is woeful

    bit like bambi V godzilla

  4. #1394, turnbull never run ozemail. He was simply an investor. As its name implied it was an email and web company based on dialup. Later tried to be an isp, like aapt, failed.

    That is why turnbull doesnt ftth, like minchin, he still think everything is evolved around the telephone.

    Ditto oz odi team.

  5. Gusface
    Posted Friday, April 10, 2009 at 3:37 am | Permalink

    The funny thing is that the libs die a natural death on such fora as their lack of tech knowledge is woeful

    Not surprising really. The first requirement to hold the position they do would be an be reasonable level of ignorance.

  6. last night leigh sayle, very rudely, tried to revive the fitzy liu dead horse. David speers tried again this morning on skynews. Shame on them

  7. I think Fran Kelly raised the Madam Lui story with Fitzgibbon yesterday morning and got the “admission” that he had not yet met with Rudd and apologised. Then Bishop later went feral on the point.

    I don’t mind reporters being rude to politicians if it is a response to then evading reasonable questions of public interest. It reflects the traditional Australian attitude to authority. Let’s not get imbued with the American reverence for their president and other pollies.

  8. Turnbull’s experience with Ozemail was probably in the dial-up days and may not have extended to the new fangled broadband thingy, much less ADSL2. And chances are he didn’t bother or even understand any of the technical stuff beyond something superficial, he was probably just doing the financial juggling.

  9. Libs are taking a page from their US counterparts – headlines of one article I’ve seen this morning showing a redneck’s best dog whistle

    Texas Republican: Asian-Americans Should Simplify Names If They Want To Vote

  10. Does anyone know much about this story on Dawn Rowan:

    I know there is often more to these than it appears but on the face of it she seems to have been very harshly treated. She won her case and was then made to pay costs on the appeal?? If Cornwall was teh guilty party there would seem no harm in Tanner waiving the costs. Everything I know about the Adelaide legal fraternity makes her claims very plausible. Anyone know this case?

  11. Regarding NBN – talked to an electrical enginer friend last night and he confirmed the RuddNET plan makes perfect sense. These days they only put in fibre connections to the home in new housing estates anyway. Nobody puts in new copper wire anything. The real cost is to put in a fibre “backbone” for the rest of the system and gradually replace the existing copper home connections. The thing is, this is all well tested technology now – there is little risk.

    Telstra will still have some bargaining power with all their existing switching stations and some existing fibre. It would save a lot to make them part of the new network. That is why Telstra shares are going up – they have something to bargain with out of this. However they won’t be able to ask too much money for their existing components or RuddNET coudl just install their own. These days lots of people can install fibre. If a deal can be struck with Telstra quickly the NBN could be built faster than eight years.

    He also said that witha good fibre backbone this network will be very future proof – they are still working out new protocols to make fibre transmission speeds faster. Over time it will exceed 100mbps. The key thing is putting in the fibre backbone, and not letting one agency have a monopoly over it.

    So this is practical and, as I explained yesterday, quite economically viable with all the new content potential on the media.

  12. Dio

    In its simplest form broadband is just the protocol used to transmit data across the phone line for internet use. Without broadband you are limited to 56 kb/s for dial up internet via a phone modem. With broadband you can have continuous internet while still using the phone line for other things (you can send multiple bits of data on a single line), as long as the nework knows what sorts of data to expect on that line. Broadband protocols are then only limited by the capacity of the line. However copper wire capacity is vastly less than fibre cable – hence broadband via copper wire is far slower. Thus there is a software component (broadband data protocols) and a hardware component (capacity of the line) to broadbadn internet speeds. NBN would eliminate the second constraint, allowing everyone on it to move to high speed broadband with data protocols meaning they coudl have anything (phone, internet, tv) sent down the cable. Others can probably explain the details better; I’m a civil engineer not electrical so that is my laymans understanding.

  13. Hah – polyquats thanks for the hint – I just found this on google:

    I knew NBN was feasible but I had no idea how many other placeshave already done it. Read the article and you will see they are installing FTTH even in South America now – throughout Buenos Aires for example. If its economic to do so there then I think its a safe bet that its economical here. What a joke the liberal position is.

    Read about the NZ trial in Manakau too – FTTH for a $50 connection fee! What a joke that $200/month scare tactic was.

  14. OK I’d really recomend rading that linked Wikipedia article on Fibre To The Home (FTTH). It is even cheaper than I thought. About teh most expensive system I found reference to was in Paris – highest price 70 euro a month including phone and TV. 30 euro/month (about $60/month) seems more typical. In Holland the town of Eindhoven formed its own corporation to put in their own FTTH network, including TV. The cost is no less than putting in domestic services like water or sewerage into subdivisions.

    So this technology is economical in every country in the world EXCEPT Australia? Why are we arguing? Turnbull is nuts.

    I think the government should get some of this information out to inform people of what is becoming normal elsewhere.

  15. @Diogenes: “broadband” is purely a marketing word which barely means anything at all. About the only meaningful distinction it implies is “not dialup” and “faster than dialup” (mostly because just about everything is faster). In some ways, it also implies a wired connection, but as the popularity of wireless connections rises, it is being applied to them as well.

  16. My rough calculation from Internet sources suggests that Australia spends about $10 billion per year on roads counting only direct State Government expenditure.

    So with the NBN we are getting a new (or at least massively upgraded) national infrastructure network for 4 years worth of road spending (and less if you only consider tax-payer contriutions).

    This NBN infrastructure will also be an increasingly important and valuable rival to and replacement of roads in terms of industry usage (e-commerce and exporting of professional services), public utility (various services such as education, some medical, entertainment, government), commuting (tele instead of cars), …


  17. Jeff and Socrates

    Thanks for that. The term “broadband” has never made a lot of sense to me. So copper wiring can be called “broadband” as can wireless.

    If you have cable, like Foxtel, what is the wiring they run into your house? Is that just another copper wire or is it optical fibre?


    That wiki article is really embarrassing. Now I know why Bill Gates described our networks as “paleolithic” when he visited Oz a few years back. Howard really has a lot to answer for. He was so behind the times but you don’t realise how badly until you are forced to look at other countries, like now.

  18. Dr Good

    The “medical” part is very true. A huge amount of medicine can be done with a really good telelink. The “laying on of hands” stuff is a bit of a crock in this day and age. Most diagnosis is based on history and tests like CAT scans and blood tests.

    The current links are too slow to get a decent picture or have Xrays sent over the network. Most big towns have all the radiology machines to get the Xray, ultrasound or CAT scan done locally. A lot of rural places could get much better medical care if there was a decent network.

  19. Dio

    Yes I agree on Howard. $43 billion sounds like a lot of money buts over 8 years its 0.5% of GDP per year. Between 2004 and 2007 Howard actualy spent more than that on pork (rural fuel subsidy, $10B Murray scheme, uneconomic rail line to Darwin) and tax cust for the rich. We coudl have already done this instead.

  20. Given that Australia is the most urbanised country in the world (or so we are always told), a few commentators have said they were surprised at the $43B cost, which is evidently about 30% more per household than the most expensive FTTH in any other country. The 90% coverage evidently cover all towns bigger than 1000 people.

  21. Dio

    In the past the cable into your house was copper wire. These days in new estates they just put in fibre to the house as well because its actually cheaper than the copper and lasts longer.

  22. Dio

    Yes my electrical engineer friend said that some saving was possible with competitive bidding for the delivery part of this. The cost of this technology is coming down all the time and all coponents are “off the shelf” now. The $43 billion might include some margin to buy off Telstra for bits of their existing network that are already fibre.

  23. Didn’t the Australian Government given up on Fiji a while back and pulled out completely? Looks like we might get some pressure to go back in and help with this mess. There must be a lot of nervous companies with investments in Fiji.

    [FIJI’S president has fired the judiciary and assumed all power in a deteriorating political crisis in the troubled South Pacific nation.
    President Ratu Josefa Iloilo has announced on a national radio broadcast today that he has abolished the constitution, assumed governance and rescinded all judicial appointments.],25197,25316239-601,00.html

  24. I dont understand why we dont just send in a joint NZ and Australian military force to eliminate the coup leaders and provide for free and fair elections.

  25. [I dont understand why we dont just send in a joint NZ and Australian military force to eliminate the coup leaders and provide for free and fair elections.]

    I completely agree.

  26. 1435 – 1437;

    Don’t think we can follow the US precedent of just waltzing in and doing the bull in a china shop routine. I think we would have to be invited BUT if the coup people are in charge and have officially dislodged the elected government (and as such wouldn’t invite us in to kick them out) then in order to make it all nice and tidy, legal wise, I think that the UN would have to mandate action and then they (A&NZ) could go in to remove the illegal morons.

  27. I really doubt all of the Fijian military would oppose such a force. Most just wouldnt fight if we told them we’re coming in and hard against those who put up resistance.

    We (Australia and NZ) have a responsibility to this region, we acted in the Solomons and yet we’ve done nothing in Fiji it is a disgrace what is happening there.

    I know some may call it neo-colonialism but if we set out from the start what we are trying to achieve it wouldnt be viewed like that.

  28. Herr Doktor Good, dont miss out the emerging mcommence, mobile based commerce integrating to the Web via the FTTH NBN. It’s going to be huge. South Korea and Singapore are pioneering a complete end-to-end package – legal, payment, financial/banking, applications and consumer protection.

  29. GP without bothering to looks at your Rudds fallacy link, you continue to display that your side just DOESNT get it. Rudd is popular. His ratings are record breaking. You will only get back in the game by providing alternative policy, not attacking Rudd. Whilst you and Glen have demonstrated more of a realistic approach this week, you easily fall back into attack and oppose mode

  30. I saw that Barracknophobia (what a brilliant name to coin! sounds a bit like arach-) the other day. Jon Stewart really nails them. Very skilled presentation. Ruddnophobia just doesn’t sound the same.

  31. Thanks Finns and Diog

    However, my GP wife is a little worried that we are slightly understating the importance of “laying on of the hands”. In fact, she says that many of her patients are only coming in for that.

  32. This argument that all towns with a population of less than 1000 will miss out on FTTH does not ring true.

    I think that what can be said that small communities at “the end of the line” could miss out.

    There will be many small communities that will get FTTH because they are on the path between bigger towns and as such will have the fibre running right pass their front door.

    As an example there is a little place called Hartley between Katoomba and Lithgow. I would expect that this small community would get access to the NBN simply because it is between Katoomba and Lithgow and the fibre will pass right pass their front door.

    However, Jenolan Caves is stuck out on its own and it would be very unlikely that they would get fibre into that community unless it is on the way to somewhere else.

    Another community that is likely to miss out on access to the network is Breeza. One would expect that the cable running to that part of NSW would run from Tamworth to Gunnedah and then up to Moree. This being the case it is a long way to Breeza to run a cable for a handful of citizens.

    So for a community to miss out an access to NBN they must not only be small they must also be isolated.

  33. I think this might be right Ratsars. I would expect that the communities along the Stuart Highway in NT and SA will probably also get FTTH, while larger communities away from the highway will have to settle for the wireless. It would be a bit silly to run the fibre from Alice Springs to Tennant Creek and not connect Ti Tree, Barrow Creek, Wauchope, etc.

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