Morgan: 61-39

Labor has enjoyed an unlikely sounding spike in the latest Morgan poll, to 61-39 from 57-43 a fortnight ago, for which the most likely explanation is that the previous one was a rogue. Its primary vote is up 4.5 per cent to 53 per cent while the Coalition is down 5.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent. The Greens are up two points to 8 per cent. Furthermore:

• The Victorian Nationals have endorsed Bridget McKenzie, a university lecturer and former school teacher from Leongatha, for the safe number two position on the Coalition Senate ticket at the next election. McKenzie fills the position held at the 2004 election by Julian McGauran, who subsequently defected to the Liberals and will now be the number three candidate on the Coalition ticket, with Michael Ronaldson at number one.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto has emerged as another challenger to Josh Frydenberg’s bid to succeed Petro Georgiou as Liberal member for Kooyong.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian notes that beef stroganoff enthusiast John Murphy would almost certainly lose his seat of Lowe in the event that an early election required a “mini-redistribution” to reduce New South Wales to its required number of seats.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper mapping poverty rates by federal electorate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

930 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Ha GP

    I’m an old fart – but when I was your age I did not aquaint. Remember it is a case of diminishing returns. 😉

  2. [what’s that about a broken record??]

    I posted this in the other threead, but this would be required listening by the SA Young Liberals who had apparently funded this recording to aid in the Election of 23 yr Old Andrew Jones was at the time Australia’s Youngest Member of Parliament 🙂

    http://www.megaupload.com/?d=V7PZWPWU

    Discussion on the track is here 🙂

    http://pub44.bravenet.com/forum/3725630012/show/1010683

    Which btw is an excellent blog for long out of print Australian Popular Music.

  3. [Alan Kohler – Caught in a spin cycle – Don’t for a moment think the market knows what it’s doing.]

    GP, you need Alan Kohler to tell you this? you are in a worst shape than i thought

  4. No 104

    The only thing diminishing in your old age is your vocabulary. 🙂

    Acquaintance is favourite of mine to be honest. Jane Austen always used it more elegantly, however.

  5. No 106

    Finns, did you even read the article before making your imbecillic conclusion? No, I thought not.

    What’s all this about being worser shape?

  6. [Poor Gus, he’s all out of ideas]

    sniff sniff…….I am taking teddy and retiring to my playpen, your cutting remarks have devastated me.
    🙁

  7. GP, i never read Alan Kohler as he has a big conflict of interest at ABC and what he’s doing privately.

  8. [Acquaintance is favourite of mine to be honest. Jane Austen always used it more elegantly, however.]

    It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single man is possession of a good fortune, must be in want of an acquaintance.

  9. GP

    Jane Austin lived in my birthplace. Bath, England. Although the school I went to had been around for 300 years before her arrival. 🙂

  10. [Jane Austin lived in my birthplace. Bath, England]

    She apparently didn’t like it – Bath gets pretty scathing treatment in her novels.

  11. No 111

    Are you saying his financial reports on the ABC are biased or involve surreptitious plugging of his subscription-based Eureka report?

  12. [What is truly devastating is your puny intellect.]

    Moving from the wet lettuce to the soggy spinach are we GP.

  13. I like the fact that we have got to post 119 and no one has mentioned the poll!

    61-39. Gotta like them apples.

    And even more you gotta like that 61-39 doesn’t even rate an eyebrow raise at the moment.

  14. Boy there are some angry people out there. Whatever you do, don’t show them this Morgan poll, I don’t think their collective cats could handle the kicking. Ouch!

    heh

    last quote listed

    The poll, conducted in late March, shows support for the Government surged by 4.5 per cent to 53 per cent, while support for the coalition fell 5.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent.
    Posted by: Dennis of Sydney 5:55pm today
    Comment 477 of 477

    Funny A 😉

  15. [your imbecillic conclusion]

    [your puny intellect]

    GP, it’s time you join Diog and spend sometime and contemplating under the Knowledge Tree of Macchu Picchu.

  16. There’s been very little discussion of the “New World Order” which came out of the G20.

    1. A ban on increasing trade protection which is great for Oz (and the developing countries)
    2. $1T for stimulus and forgiving loans from the developing world
    3. A crackdown on tax havens and hedge funds
    4. Executive wage regulation

    I can’t see how the agreement on exec wages works or what it is ❓

    I read somewhere that all the deals are done by staffers who are referred to as “sherpas”, presumably because they do all the work to get the leaders into a position where they can conquer Everest but get none of the credit.

  17. [1. A ban on increasing trade protection which is great for Oz (and the developing countries)]

    See here:

    [SATYAJIT DAS: Fundamentally – fundamentally I think there’s a real problem in the world, and the problem has nothing to do with the debate between neo-liberalism and conservative socialism or compassionate socialism, whatever it is. The problem is the world has lived in a particular era of history where we’ve used two things very unwisely. One is debt to grow the economy and the other is carbon emissions, because we haven’t properly costed carbon emissions. The entire growth of the world for the last 30 or 40 or 50 years has been driven by these two factors, and that’s coming to an end, and what I find disappointing about Kevin Rudd’s debate and, indeed, the Opposition’s debate, is they still want to rely on a world of high growth. What this is telling us is that growth is coming to an end and now we have, to pick up the second point, the G20, which is – you know, every business has junkets. This is just a junket. I mean, we’re going to have, basically, what I call a summit led recovery because we have one every week. But essentially these are the people who are part of the problem because they have relied on these growth models for a very, very long period of time and we are now asking them to solve the problem and out of the G20 will come motherhood statements like, “No trade protectionism” and what will happen is, when everybody goes home, trade protectionism, capital protection, will come in, because that’s what happened out of the last meeting. I think fundamentally we need to sit down and look at the way the world is structured economically and debate that in a rational way, and I don’t see the G20 doing that. I mean they’re meeting for four and a half hours, for God sake, about a communiqué that’s already been written. What are they going to decide? And Nicolas Sarkozy has already gone home.]

  18. The brilliance of Rudd, the ease at which he moves and is accepted on the world stage, not as a living Bush sex toy, but in his own right, will be boring a burning hole in a certain Babylonian woman that sells her body for favours to conservatives.

    There will be gnashing of false teeth down at the ABC where there will be great efforts made to hide Rudd’s work at the G20 with something trivial and drawn out. Soon there will come the ring that rules all rings which will take the one filthy ring and clean it with White King. Yes, the ABC is a joke, well ruined by Howard’s cronies.

  19. [And Nicolas Sarkozy has already gone home.]

    Well “fundamentally” that was wrong:

    [FRENCH President Nicolas Sarkozy said that the conclusions of a Group of 20 summit on the economic crisis were “more than we could have hoped for” from the crunch talks.

    “The G20 countries have decided on a profound reform of the international financial architecture, which has not been done to such an extent since the Bretton Woods accords in 1945,” he said. ]
    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25283067-5012749,00.html

  20. Diogenes & 125

    It will be freshing if the MSM media tonight and tomorrow focus on such things and do some decent analysis of the whole box and dice and leave trivial politicking out of it.

    But I won’t hold my breath.

  21. Generic Person #126,

    Is there really a need for 329-word cut and pastes? Why not a precis or apposite quote and link? Lucky this isn’t a user-pays blog, eh?

  22. [Yes, the ABC is a joke, well ruined by Howard’s cronies.]

    TP, can’t believe you’re still going about the ABC.

  23. No 132

    Wouldn’t mind a user-pays blog. Would certainly turn this leftist circle jerk into a conservative paradise.

  24. juliem

    Don’t know what version of this story you read or if in fact, you saw only a picture. The Queen put her arm around Michelle FIRST. Also, while it isn’t a good look in any instance, MO is not a subject of the crown in the same way that Aussies (FOR NOW) are. Probably one of Keating’s bigger gaffes and PJK is my hero (but even heros aren’t perfect)

    The queen is a loverly old stick, and I’m not into snobbery, if others are good luck to them but it doesn’t rock my boat. Both Keating and Michelle where showing a little bit of human kindness, good on em I say.

  25. Thomas Paine: I’m just picking myself off the floor. Were you trying to imply that John Howard was a living Bush sex toy? OMG what has happened to this nation. I loathe John Howard and his sicko off-sider Peter Costello, with every fibre of my being and have called him every name in the book. Look at my name in Yahoo7 and you will see. But, as a sex toy? that’s something I didn’t think of. 🙂 🙂

  26. [Wouldn’t mind a user-pays blog. Would certainly turn this leftist circle jerk into a conservative paradise.]

    Another well argued position from the young Lib. Don’t worry GP mater and pater will pick up the tab. 😉

  27. Back at around 21, Ruawake mentioned a plocy release by Turnbull
    [Turnbull released some policy last night.
    http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2009/04/03/65165_tasmania-news.html
    Was he or any of his team pushing this today? I heard nothing.]
    The article says
    [He outlined a six-point small business plan he wants the Rudd Government to implement immediately to ease pressure on this “most critical segment” of the economy and to enhance its growth prospects.]
    Are we back to the old scheme of leak-announce-claim credit that the Fibs were using a while ago?

  28. It sad thing is Generic Person, the Liberal party probably won’t recover until the average member things Venise Alstergren hatred was well placed.

  29. No 143

    No, it’s not a leak. I received an official email from Turnbull’s parliamentary office. He announced the policy at the ACCI.

  30. No 144

    Fredn, you’re forgetting that she’s probably never voted Liberal in her life so she’s a lost cause for us.

  31. polyquats

    Malcolm announced Tax-Back and spending $5 billion on super. The other four points were fluff, in fact a few are Govt. policy.

    It went down like a lead balloon so he reverted to type. 😉

  32. She probable is, but the party needs to be ran to attract the swinging voters,or at the very least the Liberal voters that became swinging voters because of Howard.

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