Fremantle by-election: May 16

This post is being progressively updated to follow events in the campaign for the May 16 by-election in the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle.

Wednesday, May 6

Last night’s by-election forum at Notre Dame University saw a crowd of several hundred assemble to observe and interrogate 10 of the 11 candidates, independent Rosemary Anne Lorrimar having made her apologies. Although a highly entertaining affair, one wonders about the representativeness of an audience that appeared sharply divided between left and right. The former included a lot of very vocal Greens who extended an equally sympathetic hearing to the Socialist Alliance, while the latter consisted of a remarkably well mobilised crowd of Christian Democratic Party supporters. This included state party figurehead Gerard Goiran, who managed to get a question in. If any Labor partisans were present, they kept their thoughts largely to themselves.

As expected, Tagliaferri faced uncomfortable moments over the previous government’s stance on lead carbonate shipments and his own role in the Fremantle Markets stallholders issue, to which he offered practised responses. He also came face-to-face with Australian Services Union secretary Paul Burlinson over the non-union contracts episode, and found himself used as a punching bag for concerns over uranium and GM crops. His least convincing responses related to the Labor how-to-vote card’s placement of the Christian parties ahead of the Greens, and whether he would cross the floor on issues affecting the electorate. On the first count he replied that the only votes he cared about were primary ones – an honest answer would have been that they were keeping the card as simple as possible to reduce the informal vote, and it’s really only of academic interest anyway. The second was despatched with a line of obfuscation about “always putting Fremantle first”. It was a point worth pursuing, because Labor would face an interesting dilemma if Tagaliaferri did anything to warrant disendorsement, given its evident dependence on him to retain the seat.

Adele Carles inevitably had a much easier time, notwithstanding challenges from CDP supporters over drugs and prostitution, to which her responses would have neither won nor lost her any friends. Her strongest moment came when she told the audience they faced a choice between an independent voice and a Labor backbencher, artfully capped off with “sorry Peter”. She also spoke well in opposition to the “Dubai style” North Port Quay development. Her weakest moment came when she essentially told a representative of the Leeuwin tall ship replica project they could have as much money as they liked.

The outstanding performer of the minor candidates was a very articulate Sam Wainwright of the Socialist Alliance. Julie Hollett was almost as forceful in her presentation of the CDP’s case, which wasn’t so very different from Wainwright’s if you focused on the diagnosis (“we are currently grappling with the consequences of an immoral corporate culture guided by greed and self-interest”) rather the cure. Andriétte du Plessis of Family First left rather less of an impression, and was knocked back on a show of hands when she requested that Liberal MP turned party candidate Anthony Fels take her place when she had to leave early.

Riverton real estate agent and independent candidate Nik Varga still hasn’t made much of a case as to why he would like to represent Fremantle in particular, and his most memorable contribution was a candid admission of his Liberal sympathies. On the latter count he is in the same boat as Carmelo Zagami, who offered bona fide Fremantle credentials, anti-Labor rhetoric and a reasonable grab bag of local policy concerns. I don’t know how feasible independent Steve Boni’s showpiece policy of an underground freight transport tunnel is, but he at least sounded like he’d thought it through. Local anti-council crusader Jan ter Holst got quite a few laughs, apparently intentionally, while Rob Totten of the Citizens Electoral Council didn’t win too many converts with his poster demonstrating why global warming was a fraud. The rest of his spiel was the usual Larouchite deal about looming global depression and the need for a national bank to finance humungous national infrastructure projects, Rex Connor-style – which you would have to say sounds less bonkers than it used to.

I recorded proceedings on my mobile phone, but a) it didn’t sound very good, b) I accidentally deleted part of it, and c) I gather the ABC are going to put it up as a podcast in any case.

Tuesday, May 5

The candidates’ forum will be held this evening at Notre Dame University’s Drill Hall (at the Marine Terrace end of Mouat Street) at 7.30pm, hosted by Peter Kennedy of the ABC. If you recognise me, come up and say hi. A Labor mailout has hit the letterbox, featuring this covering letter, this flyer and a pamphlet with a front and back. That gives Labor a 2-0 lead in the mailout war. The Western Patriot has a good update on the campaign, which beats me to a point I had planned on making myself: that the widespread media coverage of union dissent with Tagliaferri might steel homeless Liberals to give him their vote, or at least their preference. Or as Western Patriot commenter Peter Van Insolent puts it: “Labor voters will be voting Green because they don’t want to vote Liberal and Liberal voters will be voting Labor because Labor is Liberal”. Labor might have hoped for better timing on the CPRS backdown, but the federal government obviously has bigger fish to fry than the Fremantle by-election.

Sunday, May 3

The Sunday Times has conducted a dubious sounding “survey” of 200 Fremantle voters, without providing details of how it was conducted. Respondents broke 106 for Peter Tagliaferri and 94 for Adele Carles, evidently without being given the option of nominating minor candidates. Today’s Fremantle May Day rally got a good run on the evening news, being the second story on Ten and the ABC and somewhat further down the order on Nine. Both stories focused on the Australian Services Union’s opposition to Peter Tagliaferri, with union secretary Wayne Wood sharing screen time with Tagliaferri and Eric Ripper.

Saturday, May 2

One clear winner has emerged from the campaign so far – the Fremantle Herald, which is bursting this week with election advertising. The paper has a May Day wraparound with a small ad promoting a Greens fundraiser gig at the Fly By Night Club, which I gather will feature Bob Brown backed by Lucky Oceans and Dave Brewer. Page two of the wraparound features ads from Peter Tagliaferri, Melissa Parke and Rachel Siewert. The front page of the paper proper has the first ad I’ve seen from Sam Wainwright, promoting himself as Socialist Alliance but formally an independent. Page three has a second big ad from independent Carmelo Zagami, who gives away rather more than he did in his first ad, along with a quarter-page Tagliaferri ad I can’t be bothered scanning. Adele Carles’ first full page ad graces page five. Page six has a quarter page ad for independent Jan ter Horst and a second entry from deputy mayor John Dowson, taking a too-clever-by-half dig at Tagliaferri. There’s a half-page Tagliaferri ad on the opposite page, and one from the North Port Quay proponents (which doesn’t mention the by-election) across the bottom halves of pages eight and nine. The same full-page ads as appeared for Nik Varga and Steve Boni in the Fremantle Gazette (see below) are on pages 12 and 15.

As for the news, reporter Jenny D’Anger informs us that Labor’s preference determinations have been designed to make the how-to-vote card easy to follow, with the Greens put second last because that’s where they are on the ballot paper (perhaps Labor might give some thought to backing optional preferential voting). Another report finds D’Anger seeking further unions to add to the one laboratory confirmed and one suspected case of anti-Tagliaferrianism, getting no bite from the Maritime Workers Union and no answer from the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union. The paper also features a vox pop in which plentiful support is to be found for the Greens. It was a similar story on the ABC’s Stateline yesterday (link presumably forthcoming), but perhaps that’s café strips for you.

Thursday, April 30

Julian Grill, lobbying colleague of Brian Burke and minister in his government, says Peter Tagliaferri should be expelled from the party he joined so very recently due to his membership of the Liberal fundraiser group the 500 Club. Tagliaferri says he joined after the Barnett government was elected last year to improve his access to its ministers as Fremantle mayor. Grill’s beef is that he himself was expelled ostensibly for making a donation to the Nationals on behalf of a client. This happened in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, as Labor nervously contemplated the impact of its association with Grill and Burke. Embarrassment followed when it was revealed that Gary Gray, then candidate and now member for Brand, had also made donations to the Nationals in his capacity as corporate affairs director for Woodside – and that he was, in his own words, “a member of the 500 Club for about three years”.

The West Australian also reports that the Communications, Electrical and Plumbing Union has “told its members to ignore an ALP email calling on party faithful to march with Mr Tagliaferri and to wear T-shirts expressing Labor support” at the May Day rally in Fremantle this weekend. Its concerns are not shared by another union which Labor has traditionally not been able to rely on – the WA Police Union, whose president Mike Dean says Tagliaferri has been “a strong supporter of police for many years on a number of matters, including on wages claims and local policing issues”.

Two independents have expensive full-page ads in this week’s Fremantle Gazette Community newspaper. Independent candidate and Riverton real estate agent Nik Varga interestingly has the “V” in his name spelled with a tilted Liberal Party logo. However, Varga says he “won’t give my preferences to the Greens” due to his pro-development stance, which presumably means Labor will get them instead. The ad sells Varga as an “Independent with a Liberal voice in a Green wilderness”. One-time Labor candidate Steve Boni has a professional looking effort which like Varga’s expresses support for the North Port Quay project. Frank Calabrese in comments notes that authorisation details for each just show name and suburb – not sure how this stacks up against the Electoral Act’s requirement that the “name and address” be shown. Also in the Fremantle Gazette is an article by Angie Raphael in which the candidates offer brief explanations of what makes them tick.

More axe-grinding from The Western Patriot, which is overdue to start spelling Tagliaferri’s name correctly (UPDATE: WP’s error now corrected.).

Tuesday, April 28

Labor’s postal vote application mailout is hitting Fremantle’s letterboxes, accompanied by this flier. Paul Murray of The West Australian talks up discontent over the Labor credentials of Peter Tagliaferri, who directed preferences to the Liberals as an independent candidate in 1990 and threatened to run against Melissa Parke as an independent at the federal election. Also noted are his “tentative support” for the North Port Quay project, the council’s eviction of Fremantle Markets stallholders and deputy mayor John Dowson’s campaign against him. The article’s star attraction is Ruth Belben, a one-time electorate officer to John Dawkins whose election to council in 1987 prompted Tagliaferri to complain it had become dominated by Labor. Observing that yesterday’s West Australian report focused on a union not affiliated with the ALP, Bule in comments argues: “The real story will be when/if an affiliated union splits to oppose Tagliaferri.”

Monday, April 27

Saturday’s West Australian reported that the Australian Services Union will meet to consider a recommendation by secretary Wayne Wood that it campaign for Adele Carles. The union is unhappy with Peter Tagliaferri because of a Fremantle council non-union pay deal, which Tagliaferri argues he could not legally have involved himself with as it was an operational matter.

Friday, April 24

A candidates’ forum will be held at Notre Dame University’s Drill Hall (at the Marine Terrace end of Mouat Street) at 7.30pm on Tuesday, May 5, hosted by Peter Kennedy of the ABC. The public are invited to submit questions for the candidates to freodebate@yahoo.com.au.

Fremantle deputy mayor John Dowson has been on the warpath against Tagliaferri, first over his move to extend generous lease terms to the Fremantle Italian Club, now on the interesting terrain of Tagliaferri’s alleged neglect of the council’s “green plan”. Dowson has a quarter-page ad in today’s Fremantle Herald in which he says the plan “has not been updated or seriously fudned in the 8 years since he was elected&#148. Elsewhere in the Herald, Adele Carles gets a photo in on front page while Tagliaferri gets two (both posed with Julia Gillard) on page two. There are two ads for Peter Tagliaferri (the one at the top is from last week’s edition), one for the Greens and one for independent Carmelo Zagami.

Saturday, April 18

Robert Taylor reviews the minor players in his Political Sketch column in today’s West Australian:

There’s Christian Democrat Julia Hollett, who yesterday put out a press release opposing the Greens “agenda to introduce primary school curriculum to teach young children lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and inter-sex lifestyles”. We can safely assume her preferences will end with Mr Tagliaferri. Then there’s Rosemary Anne Lorrimar, a nurse who blames Mr McGinty for turning her from a private sector employee into a public servant and twice ran for the DLP in the 1960s against Kim Beazley – that’s Beazley Sr. She will be directing preferences to Mr Tagliaferri not the least because the Greens are “more worried about trees and whales than people.” Mr Tagliaferri can also count on pro-development Labor lawyer Steve Boni, a former ALP candidate, for preferences and more than likely will also get Family First’s Andriette DuPlessis’s preferences.

Ms Carles can count on preferences from Sam Wainwright, a wharfie and member of the Socialist Alliance Party whose main platform is that Australia should be 100 per cent reliant on renewable energy by 2020. Ubiquitous Fremantle campaigner Jan Ter Horst should also put a few votes Ms Carles’ way as should Liberal, now independent, Carmelo Zagami. Sketch isn’t quite sure which way the Citizens’ Electoral Council’s Rob Totten will send his preferences but given that he holds a diploma in homepathic ionic therapy, we’re guessing Green.

Taylor concludes that Labor is most likely just “guarding against complacency” with its talk of possible defeat, as “there’s no unpopular Labor government and more importantly no Liberal Party candidate”. A report on last night’s ABC Television news focusing on the nomination of Carmelo Zagami can be viewed online. Gasp in awe at the dashing fellow with the clipboard standing behind Peter Tagliaferri at the ballot paper draw. Here’s a letter from Tagliaferri seeking assistance from Labor members well outside the electorate, passed on to the Poll Bludger by a top-level party insider.

Friday, April 17

District returning officer Tracey Elliott takes care of business

Full list of candidates in ballot paper order, as drawn today at the Electoral Commission’s Spearwood office (to be updated with biographical details as they come to hand):

Nik Varga (Independent).

Rob Totten (Citizens Electoral Council).

Jan ter Horst (Independent). Ter Horst has been making himself known locally with claims of council corruption, which he has publicised by daubing slogans on his house and driving a car with a coffin on top. He has been in long-running dispute with the council over a neighbouring strata development which has blocked his ocean views.

Carmelo Zagami (Independent). The manager of the Fremantle United soccer club, Zagami polled 35.9 per cent as the Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Fremantle in 2004. The ABC reports he is running “to give Fremantle voters a chance to vote for a conservative candidate”, and plans to direct his preferences to the Greens.

Steve Boni (Independent). Described by Robert Taylor of The West Australian as a “pro-development Labor lawyer”, Boni was Labor’s candidate for Roe (which has since been superseded by Eyre) at the 2001 election, running fourth with 16.2 per cent of the vote.

Andriette du Plessis (Family First).

Peter Tagliaferri (Labor). Tagliaferri is a member of a prominent local Italian family, and assumed ownership of its Interfoods cafe in 1983. In that year he became at 23 the youngest person ever elected to local government in Western Australia when he was elected to East ward on Fremantle City Council. He ran as an independent in the 1990 by-election that brought Jim McGinty to the seat, polling 3.6 per cent. In 2001 he was elected mayor, defeating incumbent Richard Utting, and was re-elected in 2005 with 62 per cent of the vote.

Julie Hollett (Christian Democratic Party). Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Hollett put out a press release on the day nominations closed opposing the Greens’ “agenda to introduce primary school curriculum to teach young children lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and inter-sex lifestyles”. The CDP put the Greens last at the state election in all but a few seats where it didn’t direct preferences, with the interesting exception of Willagee where Alan Carpenter did the honours.

Rosemary-Anne Lorrimar (Independent). Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Lorrimar is “a nurse who blames Mr McGinty for turning her from a private sector employee into a public servant”, and that she “will be directing preferences to Mr Tagliaferri not the least because the Greens are ‘more worried about trees and whales than people’.” As Rosemary Taboni, she was a candidate for the Democratic Labor Party three times in the 1970s – against Kim Beazley Sr in 1972, and for the Senate in 1974 and 1975 – and she is presumably also the Rosemary Lorrimar who for the Christian Democratic Party in Willagee in 2005.

Adele Carles (Greens). Carles is a 41-year-old lawyer and resident of South Fremantle. She came to local prominence first as part of the Save South Beach campaign, which opposed a housing development within contentiously close range of the beach’s dunes, and later when she launched a legal challenge against the state government’s plans to dig up a former lead smelter site in South Fremantle. Carles polled 5.8 per cent as an independent running in opposition to the South Beach development in 2005, and surprised most observers by scoring 27.6 per cent when nominated by the Greens in 2008 – more than 10 per cent higher than former MPs Ian Alexander and Jim Scott had achieved in 2001 and 2005, and 6.0 per cent higher than the combined vote of Carles and Scott in 2005.

Sam Wainwright. Wainwright is the candidate of the unregistered Socialist Alliance, for which he ran officially as federal candidate for Fremantle in 2007 and unofficially in the state upper house region of South Metropolitan in 2005. The Green Left Weekly describes him as “a wharfie, member of the Maritime Union of Australia and activist in the Fremantle Community Solidarity group”.

Thursday, April 16

Only one more shopping day to go before the closure of nominations and ballot paper draw. Considerable media attention has been given this week to Peter Tagliaferri’s determination to stay on as mayor until his term expires in October. Deputy mayor John Dowson is quoted by the Fremantle Cockburn Gazette saying he should stand down if elected, while Amanda Banks of The West Australian relates that Tagliaferri’s predecessor as mayor, Richard Utting, has joined Adele Carles in calling on him to stand down during the by-election campaign. The issue also got a run on last night’s ABC television news. Today’s West features a lengthy opinion piece on the by-election by Paul Murray – a link will hopefully be forthcoming.

Sunday, April 12

The Western Patriot, a feisty new Perth news and opinion site published by former Labor staffers John Theodorsen and Nathan Hondros, identifies a “sleeper” local issue:

12,000 people signed a petition to save Kel Smith’s Carriage Café on the Fremantle Esplanade. Kel’s café has funneled caffeine to exhausted parents near Fremantle’s best playground for the better part of three decades. Many of Kel’s signatories would not be local, but the famous Freo gossip mill puts the City of Fremantle’s plans to bulldoze the café down to lobbying by Camellia Holdings Pty Ltd, the owner of the Esplanade Hotel. This issue is niggling for locals, many of whom are fond of the owners of this small but vital business.

Friday, April 10

The writ for the by-election was issued yesterday, making official May 16 as polling day. Nominations close at noon next Friday (a day earlier for party candidates), with the ballot paper draw to follow and the roll to close at 6pm that evening. The complete timeline for the by-election can be viewed here.

Brendan Foster of the Fremantle Herald reports:

Both the Greens’ Adele Carles and Labor’s Peter Tagliaferri want rail extended south of Fremantle but Ms Carles wants light rail too, extended throughout the metro area. Mr Tagliaferri says moving the port to Kwinana will cost jobs and he’ll fight it … “In particular we need a rail from Fremantle, through South Beach to Port Coogee&#148 (Carles said). Mr Tagliaferri, born and bred in Fremantle, laughed off suggestions by Ms Carles, a South Freo resident, that he would be too Freo-centric, ignoring the outlying suburbs of the electorate in Cockburn and the fringes of Melville.

Thursday, April 9

The ABC reports the Liberals have decided to sit this one out. Obviously they don’t think they’re travelling so well in Fremantle that they could repeat Labor’s feat in the New South Wales seat of Clarence in 1996, when the Nationals-held seat fell to Bob Carr’s promising young government with a 14.0 per cent swing (the margin in Fremantle is 12.0%) – though admittedly this was achieved with a popular candidate who until recently served the area at federal level. Antony Green has a comprehensive guide to the by-election with more historical detail than you can poke a stick at.

Wednesday, April 8

The ABC reports Colin Barnett saying that “while some in the Liberal Party will be keen to run against Labor, he sees it as a distraction for the Government”. The party will discuss whether to field a candidate tonight. Should they require a primer on the subject, Antony Green has written a comprehensive overview of the pros and cons of running by-election candidates in safe seats.

Tuesday, April 7

Labor’s administration committee has unanimously chosen Peter Tagliaferri as its candidate from a field of three nominees, the other two being the aforementioned Keith McCorriston and local branch member David Hume.

Green Left Weekly says the unregistered Socialist Alliance has announced its candidate will be Sam Wainwright, “a wharfie, member of the Maritime Union of Australia and activist in the Fremantle Community Solidarity group”. Wainwright ran for the Socialist Alliance in the federal seat of Fremantle in 2007 and the upper house region of South Metropolitan at the 2005 state election.

Monday, April 6

The grapevine reports that Keith McCorriston nominated for Labor preselection today, ahead of the closure of nominations at 4pm tomorrow. McCorriston is president of the party’s Fremantle branch and an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, which is obviously influential in the portside electorate – although that probably won’t count for much if as expected the preselection is decided by the party’s administration committee. McCorriston is also said to have backing from “some of the other blue-collar Left unions”, but a decisive-sounding combination of the Right unions and McGinty’s Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union has lined up behind Peter Tagliaferri (the Cockburn City Herald reports McGinty has described Tagliaferri as an “excellent candidate with ministerial potential”). However, one might speculate on the possibility of a union-backed independent spoiler emerging, such as helped deliver the federal seat of Cunningham to the Greens at a by-election in 2002. The West Australian reported this morning that the Liberals are still keeping their options open, with the better part of three weeks to go before nominations close. Greens MLC Giz Watson is encouraging them to enter the fray.

Saturday, April 4

The West Australian reports Peter Tagliaferri has gone back on an earlier threat to stand as an independent if he does not win Labor preselection. Joe Poprzeczny at WA Business News reports there are also rumours surrounding the imminent departure of John Kobelke, whose margin in his northern suburbs seat of Balcatta was slashed from 9.3 per cent to 2.3 per cent at the election. However, the rumour seems to be that the departure is not immediately imminent, but will rather coincide with a change of leadership ahead of the federal election and Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt at the Liberal-held federal seat of Canning, allowing for simultaneous by-elections in Balcatta and MacTiernan’s safe Labor seat of Armadale.

Here is my piece from yesterday’s Crikey Daily Mail:

The lid was officially lifted overnight on the worst-kept secret in Western Australian politics: the resignation of Left faction powerbroker, senior front-bencher and one-time Opposition Leader Jim McGinty. The announcement comes six weeks before the May 16 daylight saving referendum, and has obviously been timed so the resulting by-election can be held on the same day.

While this will limit the backlash that usually occurs when voters are dragged to the polling booths mid-term, Labor is by no means out of jail. Like its federal counterpart, McGinty’s electorate of Fremantle has traditionally been a stronghold for Labor, which has held the seat without interruption since 1924. However, a significant demographic shift in recent decades has seen the port city’s waterside workers and migrant communities make way for an assortment of alternative lifestylers, café dwellers, university students and bong shop proprietors.

While this mixture had long made the electorate a strong source of support for the Greens, few anticipated the strength of their candidate’s performance at last September’s state election. Adele Carles picked up a swing of over 10 per cent on the primary vote, and appeared on track early in the count to overtake the Liberal candidate and defeat McGinty on preferences. Carles ultimately finished in third place 3.4 per cent behind the Liberals, but the result made it clear that Labor could no longer take Fremantle for granted, particularly in the context of a by-election.

The Labor hierarchy has recognised its weakness by courting a non-party member in Peter Tagliaferri, who has been mayor of Fremantle since 2001. This trod on the toes of various union officials, reportedly including McGinty’s successor at the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union, Dave Kelly. While Keith McCorriston of the Maritime Union of Australia could recently be heard musing about his options, it appears all but certain that Tagliaferri will be endorsed in coming weeks by the party’s administrative committee. The Greens meanwhile have conducted a pre-emptive preselection which saw Carles win endorsement without opposition.

The Liberals are remaining coy as to whether they will go to the effort of fielding a candidate. While they could reasonably plead that running in a seat with Fremantle’s track record would not be worth the expense, they might care to recall that they cut the margin below five per cent at the 1990 by-election that brought Jim McGinty to the seat. However, the Barnett government hasn’t been making too many friends locally with its plan to allow Magellan Metals to transport lead carbonate through the port, after a similar operation in Esperance was linked to widespread contamination and the deaths of thousands of birds. A more realistic consideration is whether they would harm the Greens by giving them a hurdle to clear for second place, or help them by marshalling the votes of supporters who dutifully follow the how-to-vote card.

The word from the Labor camp is that polling shows local supporters are so angry that last year’s botched early election delivered government to the hated Coalition that they are of a mind to punish the party further with a protest vote. The story goes that Labor are by no means assured of victory over the Greens even with Tagliaferri in their corner, and would be gone for all money without him.

Below is a chart mapping the primary vote in Fremantle going back to 1974, when John Tonkin’s one-term Labor government was defeated by the Charles Court-led Coalition. There have of course been redistributions over this time, but they have had little effect on Fremantle, whose northern and western boundaries have remained defined by the Swan River and the ocean. The one-vote one-value redistribution ahead of the last election slightly weakened Labor by removing working class areas in the electorate’s far south and increasing the potency of Greens support around the city centre, but even this only reduced Labor from 44.9 per cent to 43.8 per cent and boosted the Greens from 15.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent (as calculated by Antony Green). Labor’s slump in 1989 resulted from the independent candidacy of John Troy, who held the seat from 1977 to 1980 when he was rolled for preselection by David Parker (no doubt explaining the slight dip in Labor’s vote in 1980). The Labor primary vote fell further at the 1990 by-election held when Parker made way for Jim McGinty after the WA Inc catastrophe cost him the deputy premiership. Among the Melbourne Cup field on that occasion was one Pietro Tagliaferri, who polled 645 votes (3.62 per cent) as an independent.

fremantle19742008

Friday, April 3

The lid has officially been lifted on the worst-kept secret in Western Australian politics: the resignation of Left faction powerbroker, senior front-bencher and one-time Opposition Leader Jim McGinty. This will result in a by-election in the Poll Bludger’s very own electorate of Fremantle. While the timing of the by-election remains at the discretion of the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, it can be taken for granted that it will be held in conjunction with the May 16 daylight savings referendum. Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924 and is in no danger from the Liberals, but it nonetheless looms as a fascinating contest due to the strong performance at last year’s state election by Greens candidate Adele Carles, who fell 3.4 per cent short of overtaking the Liberals and winning the seat on their preferences. Carles has already been endorsed as the Greens candidate for the by-election, while Labor is considered all but certain to nominate Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri. Much, much more to follow, including a piece in today’s Crikey Daily Mail.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

202 comments on “Fremantle by-election: May 16”

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  1. Ahh Jim. I went to high school with his daughters and I’d run into him at lefty garden parties in the western suburbs from time to time. I wonder what he’ll get up to now.

  2. Actually, if I were the Libs, I’d have a run at it. If that last Westpoll is right (57:43 to the Libs), they might not win the seat but they could severely dent Labor morale. And we have seen Libs at various times sitting out byelections because they don’t want to give themselves unnecessary distractions, but this is really a distraction for Labor. So I think the Libs will have a run at it. How well they do will be interesting.

    On the Greens – will Carles do any better in the byelection? While some of McGinty’s personal vote will disappear, the ALP is in opposition. Yes, Ripper is hardly popular, but Tagliaferri is hardly un-popular, so I wouldn’t expect a Cunningham scenario. I would actually expect the Green vote to fall slightly, the Libs to come up & ALP to hold steady. Of course, the machinations of the referendum might play in to – and I don’t know how that’s playing out at present. And there is the raft of others who come out to play at byelection time to mix it up as well!

  3. #3

    – Fremantle is not the sort of seat where Labor is under threat from the Liberals. Labor’s biggest threat is from the Greens or a left-wing independent. The Libs might well finish third in a seat like Fremantle; a humiliating result even if Fremantle is not really representative of WA as a whole.

    – The best chance of a Green or other candidate getting up is for the Libs to sit it out and give them a free run. Keeps all the focus on Labor, and allows all the candidates to preference among themselves and put Labor last. This maximises the impact of any protest vote against Labor. See Cunningham for a good example of this.

    – As Gippsland showed, even popular governments tend not to do well in by-elections. Rudd was polling even better than Barnett and was still comprehensively beaten in Gippsland, then wisely decided to sit out Mayo.

    So…what would the Liberals achieve by running?

  4. McGinty was a consumate performer in just about every office he held, with the glaring exception of ALP leader in Opposition. It was largely his work as Attorney General and Health Minister that got Geoff Gallop re-elected.

    William’s post on the previous thread noted that former premier Alan Carpenter had given his imprimatur to Peter Tagliaferri to replace McGinty, rather than LHMU head Dave Kelly. This might say more about Carpenter’s own plans. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carpenter announced his intention to quit parliament in the next few days, so Kelly could have a run in Willagee.

  5. MDMConnell
    Sure, and thats been the perceived wisdom, but then Brogden played that sort of hand (as an opposition leader) for byelections in seats that the Libs had no chance – and this was at east in part his downfall. If the part of the action is to provide branding and to reinforce it, then there is every reason to run. Now I don’t seriously think the Libs will win this seat, but electors also don’t like MP’s quitting post-election when their side lost. The anger and disappointment in Nedlands when Richard Court resigned post-election was almost palpable – they wanted him to stay, but he chose to jump ship. The election went down to the wire (with the ALP running pretty dead, but making sure they had people on the booths handing out HTV’s to gather up as many votes as they could) with Sue Walker winning a Lib heartland seat on 53.4% TPP.

    So, I’d see the Libs running as a distraction for Labor, maybe not running hard but directing preferences away from Labor (they have disciplined voters who follow HTV’s) to cause as much grief as possible for Labor. I’m not sure what Independents there are in Freo these days (hey William, that’s one for you as a local boy!), so I’d expect the Greens to have the best chance. And they could tie the ALP to daylight saving to make it even more tricky.

    Or they could decide to run as hard as possible to try and push the Greens back into 3rd place. Why? To try to minimise the impact of the Greens. Not likely, but I haven’t forgotten the Tassie MP reductions designed to cut the Greens out of parliament. Of, and we have Rann wanting to have a referendum on the SA upper house…loss of over-sight & accountability anyone?

  6. Brogden’s downfall had nothing to do with skipping any by-elections and everything to do with do with his drunken tomfoolery.

    The only election they sat out under his leadership was the Londonderry supplementary. That was in May 2003. He remained leader until September 2005.

  7. Correction. Looking it up, I now see the decision to sit out Maroubra and Marrickville (but contest Macquarie Fields) was made whilst Brogden was still leader.

    Nonetheless, I can’t imagine that stories of Brogden’s behaviour were leaked by his party enemies in a fit of rage about not contesting Bob Carr’s old seat.

  8. David Walsh
    No, but it was one of the reasons given for people being unhappy with his leadership. O’Farrell made a point of saying they’d contest everything after that – and it certainly delivered a resounding message to NSW Labor in the byelections that followed – including a swing of over 20% in Cabramatta.

    McGinty’s vote dropped 6% between the 2005 & 2008 elections, so could conceivably fall further (the Libs polled 30% at that last election). What would it say if the Libs outpolled the ALP? Or the Greens outpolled the ALP? I would suggest that standing aside for the Greens in Fremantle is not on Barnett’s agenda, and it would be in his interest to rub the ALP’s face in the lost election (and Ripper’s face in particular). Not that this is the outcome I would prefer. McGinty was a good performer, and to my mind his one blemish was giving in too easily to the Greens on electoral reform (and I say that as a Green)…oh, and he wasn’t great as Opposition Leader, but then those were dark days under Court.

  9. Even if it was wimpish for the NSW Libs to sit out some by-elections, it’s not particularly relevant. By-elections are a different game for governments than they are for oppositions. The Howard govt recognised this: they never contested a by-election in a Labor seat.

    Typically goverments suffer some sort of backlash at a by-election. Perhaps that may be different for a young, fresh government. But the experience of Gippsland suggests it may not.

    Barnett won’t be rubbing Ripper’s face in anything because this is an unwinnable seat for the Liberal Party. The only way they can cause the ALP embarassment is if they step aside for a party that can defeat Labor.

  10. In freo the libs would be even less popular due to the lead shipment proposal. People in Freo are very pissed off. Assuming Tagliaferri gets the nod, I would be very surprised if the ALP has a problem.

  11. Because Howard did or did not context an election doesn’t make it wisdom. And of course by-elections are different when in Govt & Opposition – but thats as much about perception as anything else. I come back to Nedlands – Labor ran in a safe Lib seat, when Labor were in govt. The edge they provided was they gathered votes and directed them to the Greens and Libs 4 Forests (running as an Independent) ahead of the Libs The ALP still polled second but were overtaken by the Greens Steve Walker & Collin (the L4F candidate) combined. It makes just as much sense to do that here.

    That said, they could just as easily sit back and watch everybody else fight over the seat. And they could rub Ripper’s face in it if the ALP was outpolled by either the Libs OR Greens – just to say 16% wont win you elections.

    By the way, I’m not entirely convinced the Greens can win the seat. There will always be a slice of Lib voters who would prefer another major party (ie; the ALP) to win over the Greens who may just go ahead and vote directly for the ALP, or will channel their preferences through the other minors like the CDP or FFP. And there wont be the hype around the general election (which, with the “arrogance” of Carpenter would have surpressed McGinty’s primary vote), Tagliaferri isn’t being “imposed” on them like Martin in Cunningham, nor will be seen like Court’s dummy spit in Nedlands, although I’m assuming the last. Thats why I think Labor’s primary vote will hold up or increase.

  12. Ah, Zombie Mayo – thanks for that, forgot about the lead shipments. That of course might mean the Libs not standing OR it might mean they stand and direct their supporters to vote Green before ALP.

  13. #13

    Aren’t you contradicting yourself there, SJ? You suggest the Liberals could rub Labor’s face in it by outpolling them, then claim Labor’s primary vote will hold up or increase.

    The Liberals going to poll 45% primary vote in Fremantle, are they? 😉

  14. MDM
    Libs poll 45% in Freo? Not very likely, but then McGinty won with 38% primary. To overturn McGinty’s TPP, the Libs would have to poll over 42%, which while still unlikely is not impossible. The issue of the Libs rubbing Ripper’s face in it is really a side issue. Yes, the Libs would love for Labor to lose another seat, if only to make their own position a little more secure. After Lawrence lost in 1993 there were 3 byelections in ALP-held seats, with 1 being won slightly unexpectedly by the Libs (Helena), but the others hangin on. All good grist for the Liberal mill to show how the ALP was not fit to govern. Can the picking of non-Party member Tagliaferri be seen as the ALP being worried about Fremantle? Maybe also to make sure the voters come out and vote (although the referendum should help). One thing, though, are the ALP running a pro-Daylight Saving campaign? If they are it could make life more difficult (I think I’ve asked this before, but can’t remember the answer).

    My own preference in all of this is a low key Lib campaign with HTV’s preferencing the Greens distributed – ala the ALP Nedlands byelection – and a big Greens campaign (with real money being spent too).

    BTW, having met Ripper on a number of occasions he always seemed the reasonable sort, but in the dying days of the Lawrence Govt he was the Minister responsible for underfunding Supported Accomodation in WA (homeless accommodation etc) such that he was nicknamed “Eric the Ripper”. Some of us in that field were less than impressed…

  15. the Liberals really hate Mcginty too.. i can’t see them allowing him to pass along the seat without causing a bit of trouble one way or the other.

  16. [In freo the libs would be even less popular due to the lead shipment proposal. People in Freo are very pissed off. Assuming Tagliaferri gets the nod, I would be very surprised if the ALP has a problem.]

    Don’t underestimate the Italian vote for Tagliaferri. With his hight profile as Fremantle Mayor, and his outspoken oppositrion to Lead Shipments I reckon He’ll win it for Labor.

  17. [William should run as a Liberal. Barnett might give you a portfolio!]

    Small problem – William has to become a member first 🙂

  18. From WA Today:

    [They might not have much chance of winning the seat, but the Liberals could hold the key to the Fremantle by-election.

    As high-profile Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri emerges as the front-runner to win Labor preselection to replace Jim McGinty, he is likely to face a tough battle against Greens candidate Adele Carles.

    Ms Carles probably went within 500 votes of ousting Mr McGinty at the state election, but late votes for Liberals candidate Brian Christie carried him ahead of her in the count.

    If Ms Carles had held on to second place, it is likely she would have drawn enough Liberal preferences to overtake Mr McGinty. Mr Christie preferenced her ahead of Mr McGinty on his how-to-vote cards.

    Mr Tagliaferri, a factional opponent of Mr McGinty, will nominate for preselection today and is heavily favoured to gain the Labor nod. He is due to hold a media conference this afternoon.

    However, as a supporter of the high-profile North Port Quay project – which was derided by Mr McGinty and opposed by many in Labor – he could face a tough battle. Even if he is selected by the ALP, his stance ought to mean a fight with Ms Carles, who opposes the plan to build a residential and office development on several islands off Fremantle.]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-could-hold-the-key-in-fremantle-20090403-9lxb.html

  19. Re Nedlands, how can running third be considered a good result for the Gallop government?

    Once again it was the Greens who stood the best chance of embarassing the Opposition and the government nearly got in the way.

  20. It would be a disgrace to give the seat to the Greens the last thing those extremists deserve is a voice in the LA!

    The Libs should run and run hard. It will hurt the ALP and destroy the Greens at the same time.

  21. Glen just proving that everybody but a Liberal is an enemy – not just the ALP. How about “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” Glen?

    Re Nedlands – because running third meant that their preferences were distributed. Given that some Lib voters were voting against the Libs but not for the ALP there was an opportunity to harvest preferences against the Libs. The state ALP saw this and went with the low-key approach (and ran a young inexperienced candidate). It was not a seat the ALP was going to win, but there was an opportunity for the Libs to lose a seat. The same applies here – the Libs don’t have much of a prospect, but there is the opportunity for the ALP to lose a seat.

  22. [It would be a disgrace to give the seat to the Greens the last thing those extremists deserve is a voice in the LA!]

    Because Michael Organ was just such a troublemaker in the House of Reps… sigh.

    Funny how historically it used to be Labor v the rest, and now it seems it’s Liberal v the rest.

  23. Here we go:

    [They might not have much chance of winning the seat, but the Liberals could hold the key to the Fremantle by-election.

    As high-profile Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri emerges as the front-runner to win Labor preselection to replace Jim McGinty, he is likely to face a tough battle against Greens candidate Adele Carles.

    Ms Carles probably went within 500 votes of ousting Mr McGinty at the state election, but late votes for Liberals candidate Brian Christie carried him ahead of her in the count.

    If Ms Carles had held on to second place, it is likely she would have drawn enough Liberal preferences to overtake Mr McGinty. Mr Christie preferenced her ahead of Mr McGinty on his how-to-vote cards.]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-could-hold-the-key-in-fremantle-20090403-9lxb.html

  24. I reckon the Liberals should run in the seat, whether or not some of Fremantle is pissed off with their decision to truck through some goodies through their electorate.

    I think all the obvious reasons stand:

    *Barnett to at least spin a positive story [with his Media Department ;P you all know what I mean by that] and demoralise Labor no matter what the vote brings in.

    *A chance at giving the Greens some pref flows on their HTV cards to maybe cause a Green upset, or at the very least, deprive Labor some of its bounty in the war chest.

    *Any shot at this early in the Govt for a by-election is worth a chance, I’m sure Barnett doesn’t like the minority govt hanging on with the independents that much [as liberal as they are]. Even at extreme long odds, still worth having a shot, as the above 2 points still apply.

    *Make this seat more marginal, means Labor will have to divert resources to it next election, which might also add as another reason why the Liberals would run.

    However: Does anyone know where the Greens, Labor and Liberals all stand on the daylight saving position? I thought urban WA actually liked daylight saving, so the trials under Labor should work in their favour in this seat. However, if not, could backfire towards the Greens/Libs. A very interesting seat to watch and something to keep me occupied post-Qld 2009 Election.

  25. To add on to point 1: all the more positive spin for barnett will keep those ugly pages of the public service & council amalgamations vs canal, troy and the rest of Govt out of the headlines and give his Govt some breathing space.

  26. I don’t see why the Libs would run in a by-election that they can’t win. They should just run a Liberal Independent for the true believers and let the Greens and ALP scrap it out.

  27. [*Make this seat more marginal, means Labor will have to divert resources to it next election, which might also add as another reason why the Liberals would run.]

    Hardly. They know a by-election is very different to a general election.

  28. [*Barnett to at least spin a positive story (with his Media Department ;P you all know what I mean by that) and demoralise Labor no matter what the vote brings in.]
    By-elections typically see swings against the govt. So if this is their aim, the odds are against them.

    [*A chance at giving the Greens some pref flows on their HTV cards to maybe cause a Green upset, or at the very least, deprive Labor some of its bounty in the war chest.]
    Problem with this idea is the very real risk that the Libs will deprive the Greens of preferences by running ahead of them. And the war chest argument goes both ways; the Libs would also be spending money.

    [*Any shot at this early in the Govt for a by-election is worth a chance, I’m sure Barnett doesn’t like the minority govt hanging on with the independents that much (as liberal as they are). Even at extreme long odds, still worth having a shot, as the above 2 points still apply.]
    This is the only point I can credit. Yes the govt has a free shot at a seat, and they have nothing to lose. Shame it’s not a very winnable seat.

    [*Make this seat more marginal, means Labor will have to divert resources to it next election, which might also add as another reason why the Liberals would run.]
    No, this is flawed reasoning. One abberant by-election result doesn’t make a seat more winnable. Take Aston in 2001. Was the Liberal position more precarious because their margin had been reduced to 0.6%? Not at all, if anything the seat was seen as stronger for the Libs because they’d survived the by-election.

  29. Latest update:

    [The grapevine reports that Keith McCorriston nominated for Labor preselection today, ahead of the closure of nominations at 4pm tomorrow. McCorriston is president of the party’s Fremantle branch and an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, which is obviously influential in the portside electorate – although that probably won’t count for much if as expected the preselection is decided by the party’s administration committee. McCorriston is also said to have backing from “some of the other blue-collar Left unions”, but a decisive-sounding combination of the Right unions and McGinty’s Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union has lined up behind Peter Tagliaferri (the Cockburn City Herald reports McGinty has described Tagliaferri as an “excellent candidate with ministerial potential”). However, one might speculate on the possibility of a union-backed independent spoiler emerging, such as helped deliver the federal seat of Cunningham to the Greens at a by-election in 2002. The West Australian reported this morning that the Liberals are still keeping their options open, with the better part of three weeks to go before nominations close. Greens MLC Giz Watson is encouraging them to enter the fray.]

  30. Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere yet. The Greens did pretty well in 2008, but half of what you could call the swing to them actually happened in 2005. Jim Scott (who’d just resigned from the upper house) got 15.8%, down 0.7%, but Adele Carles ran as an independent (anti South Beach development I think) and got 5.8% herself, so the combined vote was 21.6% – compare to 26.6% for the Liberals and 44.9% for Labor. Most of Carles’ voters preferenced the Greens, so that was almost as close as 2008 – just not as obviously.

  31. And I wonder how the Italian vote will be a factor in this ? With Tagliaferri’s Italian roots, and his former ownership of Interfoods and his high profile in the Italian Community and his role as mayor will play a major factor as Italians feel more comfortable dealing with an Italian speaking local member (as do other ethnic voters) – John D’Orazio and John Castrilli are two such examples, especially the latter with the Italian Community in Bunbury, though this strategy failed when current City of Swan Mayor Charlie Zannino stood in Midland.

  32. I don’t understand the MacTiernan speculation… is Canning really that likely a win for the ALP? I don’t see it.

  33. ltep, don’t underestimate the propensity of suburbanites to swing towards a first term government. We’ve seen it a number times at state elections.

    The voters of Canning might’ve been reluctant to get rid of Howard, but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote Liberal this time. On the contrary, they might decide once again to stick with the devil they know; which in this case will be Rudd.

    Plus Labor’s coming off a low base in WA; so there’s ample room for improvement. I’d expect strong challenges from Labor in Swan (which they already notionally hold), Stirling, Canning and Cowan.

    (Hope I’m not getting too far off topic…)

  34. It seems Mr Rat has an axe to grind against the CCC andd in particular Mike Sliverstone, in particular in his role in the Children Overboard Fiasco.

  35. [Not to mention his role in the CCC fiasco.]

    That as well 🙂 Now are we going to have Flyer watch for the By-election ? Will the Libs bring back Brian Burke, or that other Freo fellow Norm Malborough ? 🙂

  36. David @45. You are right. WA has a history of major corrections against the national swing. 1998 is probably a feasible target for WA Labor in terms of federal seats won. At the state level the really big swings to first-term Labor govts have been in the middle-class suburbs and most of Perth is a middle-class suburb.

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