ACNielsen: 58-42

The Fairfax broadsheets have published an ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters showing federal Labor’s two-party lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 at the previous poll in November. Labor leads on the primary vote 47 per cent to 37 per cent. Also in the poll:

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up four points to a stratospheric 74 per cent, the highest ever recorded by ACNielsen, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is down eight to 43 per cent. Their respective disapproval ratings are 22 per cent (steady) and 47 per cent (up 12 per cent).

• Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 24 per cent, his lead increasing seven points.

• Remarkably, 57 per cent say Kevin Rudd would be “justified in calling an early election to try and break the Senate impasse that has frustrated the passing of some legislation” (although they might think differently if they realised no double dissolution trigger existed, and that any election for the House of Representatives before the middle of next year would throw the two houses’ cycles out of sync).

• Peter Costello is favoured as Liberal leader by 47 per cent against 39 per cent for Turnbull, although Turnbull has closed the gap six points.

• 66 per cent say they oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, a near identical result to last week’s Newspoll.

In other news:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns. Charts aplenty from Possum, here and here.

• The Victorian Liberals have advertised for federal election candidates in Kooyong, Corangamite and Deakin. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says “long-time Liberal fundraiser and multi-millionaire Andrew Abercrombie is believed to be the Baillieu faction’s secret weapon candidate” to run in Kooyong against the Josh Frydenberg, who is backed by the Kroger camp and “Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers man”, Senator Michael Ronaldson.

The Australian reports the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association have joined in a “Moscow-Berlin pact” to seek a “Senate-style system for Victorian upper house preselections”. This would deny rank-and-file members a vote, and circumvent the recent deal between the two unions’ intra-factional rivals. For their part, the latter group are threatening to back separate ballots for each position rather than proportional representation, which would allow them to secure a clean sweep. More from Andrew Landeryou.

• Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports that former Premier Alan Carpenter has backed Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri to replace Jim McGinty as Labor’s candidate in Fremantle. His presumed rival, LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly, now says he is no longer interested. While still denying it publicly, it is almost universally anticipated that McGinty will shortly quit parliament so a by-election can be held in conjunction with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving. Last week the Herald reported that Keith McCorriston, Maritime Union of Australia official and local party branch president, had “also emerged as a contender”. It was also reported that WA Opinion Polls had been canvassing the electorate asking respondents about Tagliaferri and Greens candidate Adele Carles.

• Speaking of which, The West Australian reports daylight saving advocates have been peddling an “online poll of 610 voters conducted last week by independent research company Synovate”, showing 50.5 per cent planning to vote yes against 46.8 per cent for no. Despite the smaller sample of 400, a Westpoll survey published earlier in the month showing 57 per cent for no and 42 per cent for yes might be thought more credible.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have been keeping busy with preselections for the state election due next March. Mark Worley of the Sunday Tasmanian reports three new candidates have been chosen for Franklin: Vanessa Goodwin, a criminologist who narrowly failed to win a seat in 2006; Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton; and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Party leader Will Hodgman will be a fourth, while the fifth will be “left open until later in the year”.

• In Bass, sitting members Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier will be joined by Michael Ferguson, who gained the federal seat for the Liberals in 2004 and lost it in 2007, and David Fry, who filled a vacancy in 2000 but failed to win election in his own right in 2002 or 2006. As in Franklin, a fifth position has been left vacant for the time being.

Sue Neales of the Mercury reports plans to preselect candidates in Denison have been deferred as the Liberals are “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent”. Michael Hodgman, whose parliamentary career goes back to 1966, is apparently set on another term despite being 70 years old and “suffering ill health”. From Michelle Paine of the Mercury (thanks to Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics for scanning this) comes a report that Marti Zucco, Hobart alderman and twice-unsuccessful independent upper house candidate, is also gearing up to nominate despite troubled relations with the party.

Over the fence, Rebecca White, a 26-year-old electorate officer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr, has been confirmed as a starter for Labor in Lyons.

• Anna Bligh says she will discuss fixed terms, possibly of four years, with whoever ends up leading the Liberal National Party. Queensland is the only state which still has terms of three years.

• Graeme Orr writes on the impact of optional preferential voting at the Queensland election, and related matters, at Australian Policy Online.

Gary Morgan takes aim at Newspoll and Galaxy over their under-estimation of Labor’s vote in Brisbane. To which they might justifiably reply: either shit or get off the pot. When Morgan starts publishing his own state polls, and when these prove more accurate than his rivals, then he can reasonably presume to start giving them advice.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead blowing out to 63-37 from 60-40 last week, and also shows Kevin Rudd’s approval rating at record levels: 21 per cent for “strongly approve”, his best result since this question was first asked last September. Malcolm Turnbull’s overall approval rating is down four points to 28 per cent and his disapproval up five to 48 per cent. In answer to George Megalogenis’s question on Insiders yesterday, 50 per cent say our troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, and 75 per cent say there should be more armed security at airports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  1. What is Shanahan alluding to (if anything) when he talks about the government “getting away with murder”? He just cannot help inserting partisan phrases into his analyses.

  2. GP,

    Unfortunately, for you your ilk, you are out of step with the real movers and shakers in the world today. Sure you can sit back a snark to your hearts content. But, your constant carping criticisms and dog in the manger attitude only serve to make you and the Libs a little old fashioned and irrelevant.

  3. Adam – My grandmother said virtually the same thing. They were able to pick up property cheaply because they had some cash.

    GP sounds far too young to remember that Howard had 10% unemployment in the early 80s but that left 90% of us OK.

    I get the distinct impression that the Libs and cohorts are just sitting waiting for all those cheap prices to jump on. Meanwhile they can try to blame it all on Labor – except that this time we are not believing them. Hope it stays that way.

    I agree about Shanahan – he must have been drinking ‘hippy juice’. In the past 3 weeks I have actually read a his articles. I haven’t touched them for a couple of years so it’s been a surprise that I have even opened them.

  4. No 1602

    GG, the parliamentary party may be carping without policy, but unlike them I actually have a consistent position.

  5. GP,

    It is just that your “consistent position” does not seem to resonate with any person or group in a position to make the decisons.

    Purity may provide a feeling of intellectual ascendancy. However, only the impotent are truly virtuous.

  6. Here they go again.

    Here’s me thinking today I would be reading and seeing coverage of the G20 and what the leaders’ resolved to do for the future of the world economy, but no, I am confronted with revelations about Kevin Rudd’s temper. Silly me.

    Joe Hockey is getting excited about a negative story on Rudd overshadowing the G20, and laying the groundwork for more to come, “I hope it’s a one off”, he says, and then waiting for the next story to be published so he can make a claim as to a pattern of behaviour. Not much of a poker player is our Joe.

    There could be several stories of this ilk written and the Coalition can try to make as much out of it as possible, but the truth is, in a purely political sense, it doesn’t make any difference. In fact, contrition is a welcome quality and may even be beneficial to Rudd, as if he needs any help.

    Lachlan Harris trying to smother the story was foolish and unnecessary and will no doubt have annoyed Steve Lewis who will now probably try to find more stuff to run with, but they, like so many people in the political fishbowl, lose sight of what the people actually see and what they actually care about.

    The fishbowlee’s have bugger all understanding of Brands and Branding. I have purposely written them as proper nouns, because that’s how important they are. It’s clear most in the fishbowl, know little about market research (polling), it’s even clearer they know absolutely nothing about Branding.

    Simply put, Rudd is like a new purchase – dare I say, a new suit or even a new car.

    After a lot of consideration and thought, the public have bought this new item (suit or car), and after having used it for some time, they are delighted with its performance. It delivers beyond their wildest dreams. Some of this is real performance, but most of it is imagined or perceived performance. (which is the vast majority of what constitutes a Brand)

    Now someone comes along and says, “that new suit of yours – the fabric is wearing poorly, the threads are coming loose, the buttons are falling off”, or alternatively, “that new car of yours – it’s starting to rust, the sound system is playing up, the paint has chipped”.

    What is the person/public to believe? That this new item they have invested so much in is no good? That everything they’ve just been told is true?

    And that’s just for a new product. (the equivalent of a new Prime Minister) What if the suit is an Armani or the car a Mercedes? (which in political terms is exactly what Rudd is – hard to believe I know – but that’s what the polling says)

    What chance do you think the purchaser will agree and now believe that this shiny new item, this Brand they are now so proud to own, is a dud?

    About as much chance as Peter Costello has of showing some conviction and courage.

    So here they go again. Brian Burke volume 35. They learn nothing and remember nothing.

  7. BH, they (Defence through Toll Transitions, their civilian contractor to arrange move details) reimburse us for the replacement cost. The only way we could claim insurance would be if we had exhousted other options and hadn’t received any response. Insurance won’t pay what amounts to a double payout 😉 …..

    The frig is 267L capacity. At GoodGuys in Midland, WA (the “representative” store I visited to “window shop”) the smallest current range frig supplied that has the MINIMUM features that we would want is 394L capacity. We are reimbursed replacement cost of what we had, not based upon what is currently generally available on store floors for purchase. Cost difference is as I noted in earlier message about 1/3 more than what we are getting. Not too bad though to kick in an extra couple of hundred for a decent upgrade 😀

  8. Fielding kicking up his heels again …. article in The West says he will play “hardball” if Swan tries to use raising of any taxes on any alcohol as part of the May budget.

  9. #1609
    What is it with Fielding and alcohol taxes? Considering his strong stand on the problems alcohol causes you would think that a tax on it would be one of the easier taxes to pass muster with him.

  10. Also from The West (and I can’t find this article on the web, atm seems to be only in the print edition) we find that Rudd has Obama’s ear on China {must REALLY get under MT’s skin :-D}

    summarizing with quotes from the first few paragraphs …

    “President Barack Obama has taken a big step to broaden the US relationship with China with the launch of a new dialogue ….. Mr. Obama, visiting London for the Group of 20 summit on the global economic crisis, met Chinese President Hu Jintao and agreed to “strengthen ties at all levels” ….. SOS Hillary Clinton and Treasury Sec. Geithner will meet once a year with (their Chinese equivelents) … will work with China on all issues from Climate Change to Iraq and inbetween ….. ‘China must be a part of the solution’ …… pledged that the dialogue would not sweep sensitive matters under the carpet [ i.e not deal only with the economy but also human rights ] “

  11. 1610, no idea at all … and if that has been reported in The West (conservative bent to say the least) if you checked Google news you might find another net source with more details?

    Ditto on the Obama China story I put up, can’t find that on their website but sure that someone from a US based net source has reported the same 😉 ….. think that Hockey and Turnbull forgot to tell Obama about the Chinese ;-D ……

  12. What I found most interesting about Shanahan’s OO piece today is that he’s actually invited comments. PBers urged to contribute!

  13. A couple of times I’ve responded – politely and with reasoned arguments, I thought – responses to Shanahan’s pieces. Never once published.

  14. Cuppa and dogma

    There is no medical reason why someone who had a heart valve replacement as a child would need a special diet. None whatsoever.

  15. dogma

    The “good try” comment referred to what looked like an attempt to justify Rudd needing special treatment for medical reasons and therefore being a mitigating factor in his little tantrum.

  16. US House of Reps have passed Obi’s budget
    Take note of this Republican line and wait and see how long it is before Ms Copy Cat of Turnbull use it as their own 😉 oh substitute Austraila for America of course.
    [“Never in the history of America have so few voted so fast to indebt so many,” Republican Congressman Jeb Hensarling of Texas said of the House vote.]

  17. Cuppa

    The Heart Foundation’s diet’s are designed for people with coronary artery disease, which is far and away the most common form of heart disease. But having a valve replacement as a child, or even as an adult, doesn’t make you more likely to get coronary artery disease than anyone else. I think Rudd got his heart valve problem from Rheumatic fever but it wouldn’t affect his life expectancy at all. He is in perfect health. The only thing he would need to do is have a shot of antibiotics if he had an operation or dental work to reduce the risk of the heart valve getting infected.

  18. Another righting of a Howard wRONg
    [The federal government has officially endorsed the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

    The former Howard government voted against the declaration in 2007 on the grounds it would elevate customary law above Australian law.

    In Canberra on Friday, Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin said endorsing the declaration was an important symbolic step for building trust and black and white relations in Australia.

    “Today, Australia changes its position,” Ms Macklin said.

    “We do this in the spirit of rethinking the relationship between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians and building trust.”]

  19. Diog comment 12.37pm

    In no way in my first comment did I say Rudd’s special diet should be a justification for throwing a tanty. In fact I said he should have right apologised. Your intention of the comment “good try” was a clear a glass and just as wrong. I still stand by that facts that have been told to me by friends who have similar op’s that they should watch their diets carefully.

    You poked at me, I poked back. Lets move on.

  20. Diog comment 12.37pm

    In no way in my first comment did I say Rudd’s special diet should be a justification for throwing a tanty. In fact I said he should & did, rightly apologise. Your intention of the comment “good try” was a clear a glass and just as wrong. I still stand by that facts that have been told to me by friends who have similar op’s that they should watch their diets carefully.

    You poked at me, I poked back. Lets move on.

  21. So, the G20 pass an historic agreement, with Rudd playing a prominent role, and the story of the day is that several months ago Rudd got annoyed at a flight attendant and apologised at the time. If this is the best the media can do, God help us

  22. So it looks like the leaders of the G20, as well as Rudd and the majority of the Australian people, have rejected Turnbull’s “do nothing” response to the GFC. Even the High Court won’t back him up. He must feel like a misunderstood genius. After all, he can’t possibly be wRONg 😉

  23. Andrew

    How many months ago was it??? I agree it was stupid before I heard that.

    BTW, I do hope someone asks Turnbull next time he is interviewed what he thinks of the G20 agreement. Especially the bit on tax shelters and CEO pay limits 🙂

  24. Andrew, I feel embarassed by the media, not even Bush got bashed over the economy tanking by the US media the way they’re bashing Rudd.

    Yet these articles are what the media thinks the Australian community is interested in. The Australian community wants to know if their jobs or businesses are going to be secure in the next year and how long before we come out of it. Not if Rudd sits beside the British Foreign Minister on a TV talk show, or if he’s having a bad hair day or what Therese is wearing.

  25. It’s pathetic Andrew. Instead of concentrating on the big issues of this crisis, and perhaps expressing a little admiration that our PM is serving and representing the Australia well on the world stage, here they are beating up a trivial incident from months ago.

    They are playing the fiddle for the Liberal Party, no doubt in my mind about that, while degrading anything the national spirit (which needs a lift at at time of economic uncertainty) might get out of Mr Rudd’s contribution to the global debate.

  26. OK, he shouldn’t have lost his temper BUT
    i. he’s been visiting a foreign country
    ii. he gets on the plane that’s meant to be our equivalent of Airforce One, where his every whim is meant to be catered for
    iii. he’s tired and hungry (not ‘tired and emotional’)
    iv. the meal he’s ordered isn’t there. As it’s vegetarian, that quite possibly means he has nothing to eat.
    I’d be peeved.

  27. [OK, he shouldn’t have lost his temper BUT]

    Does it matter? He’s human. He lost his temper and yelled at someone. Big whoop. He didn’t assault them. He hurt someone’s feelings. Boo freaking hoo.

    Slow news week.

  28. But bob, it’s NOT a slow news week, that’s the point. And see, we’re getting distracted by the story just like the writers (and opposition) had hoped. If anything, like the scores episode, it makes Rudd seem more human. And, as the polls have consistently shown for 18 months, the public actually can see through the crap and spin that the Libs and their MSM continually dish up…

  29. Now Abbott is saying that Rudd was right to make the apology to the stolen generation. I thought he and his mates thought it was simply empty symbolism. His uncle Howie will strike People Skills from his Xmas card list.

  30. Andrew

    We are agreed that is the real news story of the day – for the whole world! Very few people were otpimistic the G20 would actualy agree anything substantial before it started; this result is a win.

    Meanwhile, Turnbull sticks to his do nothign strategy. Captain non-action

  31. Howard seemed to make a virtue of not apologising. I recall his fumbled and clumsy “apology” – which-wasn’t-really-an-apology – for the interest rate rises that occurred after the Liberals had promised to keep rates historically low.

  32. [ Diogenes
    Posted Friday, April 3, 2009 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

    The “good try” comment referred to what looked like an attempt to justify Rudd needing special treatment for medical reasons and therefore being a mitigating factor in his little tantrum.]

    It has already been stated that Rudd apologised for losing his temper. To me, that is a clear indication that Rudd himself thought he was in the wrong. The arguments by the atagonists here trying to justify or condemn Rudd for the original outburst are totally pointless. None of you were there. None of you know the full story other than that portrayed by the MSM. The same MSM that most of you complain about. For all we know he may have been served rotten meat on 5 day old bread. There again, he may have been totally out of order.

    To keep arguing about this in this manner is rather pointless and immature. A lot of you are arguing your OPINION over anothers OPINION. Facts have little to do with it.


  33. Imagine how Turnbull would look if he came out and said “look, the PM got angry, we all do for time to time, there are more important issues etc etc”. Instead, he goes for the predictable hysterical line. Rudd never LIED about this incident. He apologised AT THE TIME (3 months ago) and when asked today, he admitted it

  34. Hehehe
    only to have it pointed out that he had previously said that he should only say ‘sorry’ if something was actually his fault (to get out of apologising to the Aborigines) and that by apologising for high interest rates he was in fact taking responsibility for them.
    A very nice political moment.

  35. And Tom, most of us have stated that Rudd did the wrong thing. The issue is the IMPORTANCE and PROMINENCE given to this story by the MSM at a time when the G20 has reached an historic deal, and Rudd has played a part in that

  36. [Imagine how Turnbull would look if he came out and said “look, the PM got angry, we all do for time to time, there are more important issues etc etc”. Instead, he goes for the predictable hysterical line. Rudd never LIED about this incident.]

    I suppose Mr Turnbull thinks the PM should’ve called a press conference 3 months ago to apologise for yelling at someone.

  37. Another take on the ‘airline food/Rudd Tanty’ story:
    The RAAF can’t even get the meals right on the PM’s plane – and we trust these people with billion dollar contracts and to look after our troops?
    Looks like another sign of DoD incompetence to me.
    And Go Kev! Great work this week.

  38. Tom, I agree, Come onnnnn!!! Bludgers 😉 , don’t take the Lib suckhole media’s bait and make Kev’s manners the topic of the day.
    Let’s get back to ripping it up the Fibs and the ABC, the way it should be 😀

  39. I thought Turnbull sounded unusually mild in his criticism but the ABC gives it the headline
    “Turnbull seizes on Rudd’s air rage admission”.
    Maybe their eagerness is going to bite Turnbull this time because London to a brick he’s done his share of yelling. If so and if he didn’t have the decency to apologise straight away as Rudd did, it wont be a good look.

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