Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  1. [ShowsOn but if i were to compare id say Maxy is far better looking than Leigh.]
    Give Leigh a few years, and she’ll be a Labor parliamentary secretary too.

  4. Does anyone esle think switzer has trouble swallowing his …. sandwich

    Dont let the door smack you on the ass on the way out switzer

  6. [I was referring to Bronwyn BTW]

    I thought he would prefer Angela Bishop, who was a TV star in Broonie’s Womb when Bishop Snr was playing a lawyer* in Divorce Court 🙂

    *Well she is a lawyer, but the show involved actors acting out real divorce cases with the lawyers playing themselves.

  7. ShowsOn, you’re so predictable when it comes to the lovely Leigh. She is gorgeous and as smart as a whip. I’d like to propose Leigh Sayles for head of political reporting across both TV and radio on the ABC; she’d sort them out. Then we might be getting somewhere. Night again, and this time I really mean it.

  10. For those interested in some real goss,

    “Glenn Milne, the pugnacious former TV journalist turned Peter Costello cheer-leader, has been making a unique fashion statement according to Canberra gallery observers. In addition to rather startling red-framed spectacles, Milne was seen this week sporting an eclectic ensemble of suit pants, olive jacket and white shirt with navy stripes. Some thought it was laundry day and he was just wearing what hadn’t been irredeemably soiled. But when he wore the same garb two days running, it led some unkind souls to speculate that there might be trouble at home leading him to a cheap motel with limited laundry service. Developing…”

    http://www.vexnews.com/news/3423/fashion-police-canberra-informants-troubled-by-glenn-milne/

  11. [Btw I prefer Julie Collins as a Brunette.]

    I said the exact same thing on the other thread! Great minds etc.

    Should have done a focus group first, Julie.

  12. Good taste as well Oz.

    I bet now she goes back to being a brunette as word gets out that the pollbludger experts prefer her that way. 😀

  13. On an aside from the celebrations after Parliament today 🙂 and the looming QLD election, has anyone read anywhere what is happening or not happening with bailouts of the automakers in the US? Its not good folks in the Motor City and doesn’t look like getting good any time soon 🙁

    [
    Detroit’s jobless rate hits 26-year high at 22.2%
    http://tinyurl.com/d5837m
    ]

    and this is ONLY in Detroit proper. Doesn’t show surrounding suburbs nor does it show Flint which is probably worse :(.

  14. Answered my own question …..

    [
    WASHINGTON — Detroit’s auto suppliers thanked the Obama administration Thursday after it announced a $5-billion financial aid package, even as questions rose about how many firms could be helped and how much more rescuing the industry would need.

    The administration pledged Thursday that the Supplier Support Program was the first step of a broader auto industry aid plan that could be unveiled next week, addressing requests by General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC for $21.6 billion in survival loans.

    http://tinyurl.com/cwsrz5
    ]

  15. [Will the election coverage be on ABC2 damn i wish i had APAC right now ]

    Glen,

    alas no ABC2 coverage 🙁

    [Live election coverage on ABC TV, Radio and Online

    The ABC will provide live election coverage on ABC1, ABC Local Radio and ABC Online on election night, Saturday 21 March.

    Live results will be available here after 6:20pm AEST.

    An early edition of ABC News will streamed online at 6:00pm AEST, followed by election coverage at 6:30pm.

    Radio coverage by ABC Local Radio Queensland will be streamed online from 6:00pm AEST.]

  16. The joys of international banking meltdowns. I was rung today from someone in a call centre with an Indian accent, asking me to confirm my personal identification details. Obviously I didn’t, but they said that Citibank had recently taken over Visa transactions for my financial institution (true) and had my name, bank and work phone number! I started to wonder how many newly broke banking executives might be peddling data to finance their change in career… If this is an example of Citibank security no wonder they are insolvent. I might need to change bank.

  19. [i think workchoices is in the never ever basket not dead]

    Agreed. They’ll try it again for sure… under a different Orwellian name of course

  23. The MoE on the regional breakdowns would be pretty high, but if you combine Galaxy and Newspoll you’re seeing significant swings away from the government in Brisbane and much smaller swings everywhere else.

    But you can’t call anything from this poll. It just reiterates that this election is probably going to be very close.

  24. [But you can’t call anything from this poll. It just reiterates that this election is probably going to be very close.]

    Exactly, this is an exact replay of the WA State poll last September – I predict Labor will lose seats where the local ALP member has retired and/or new seats being contested for the first time.

  26. [one diff though. no where near as many ‘open seats’ with no sitting member as was the case in WA. Then again QLD has optional prefs.]

    Yep, and if the LNP DO get up, they’ll have the equivalent of Brendon Gryls, but without the intelligence or streetsmarts 🙂

  27. It looks like this is what I was phone polled on 2 nights ago:
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/pdfs/statepolitics18mar2009.pdf
    [ALP 56% and Liberals 44% statewide
    •
    In metro Adelaide the TPP is ALP 56% and Liberals 44%
    •
    In SA country regions the TPP is ALP 57% and Liberals 43%]
    That country vote looks completely wrong, apparently it was 58/42 in favour of the Liberals last time, that is a gigantic turn around!
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25219155-5006301,00.html

    They probably have their weighting all screwed up.

  29. Dear Dorothy Dixers
    I may have missed something or misunderstood something, but does anyone know whether the drafting of the child of Work Choices Act excludes specifically the accessing to Commonwealth, State and Territory Government organisations and departmental employers to check the books? If it does not specifically exclude it, does it mean that union delegates will automatically have access to the books? Are the ‘books’ a subset of the whole ‘books’? Or am I barking up the wrong tree completely?
    Signed
    perplexed.

  31. The Pine Bark Beetles are hot on Borg.

    Does anyone have a reference to the suggestion/claim that he believes volcanoes cause climate change?

  32. The Australian Brown Paper Bag Manufacturer’s Association today denied that it was looking forward to any particular government in Queensland. The Association’s press spokesperson stated that the issue was an ‘irrelevant because these days all that sort of stuff gets done electronically.’

  33. It is truly sad that the USA is trying so hard to destroy itself. On the brink of economic extinction they have a President who has a logical plan to at least do something in a systematic way that will at least pull the country away from the abyss.

    Yet you have a load of toxic media and Republicans doing their hardest to bring down or mutilate his strategy and, leave the country with what? If they are successful what is the result? The great depression. The probably consequences don’t seem to bother the Republicans or papers like the Wall Street Journal, as long as a Democrat is not successful.

    The US is fighting a huge fight for its existence and yet part of the US is trying to make their Champion ineffective and for the country to lose the fight.

    We see the same thing with Turnbull and the Australian media, but not as bad as the USA willingness to suicide out of spite. Some of the Murdoch media and the Liberal party dearly wish for a recession and would help it along if they could (by blocking bills, undermining confidence etc) for the sake of maybe wining an election.

    It is truly disgusting. This is a culmination and revelation of the character of the Republicanism and Howardism of the past 8 years. We get to see what they are really like underneath and it is awful to behold.

    No wonder you see Obama and Rudd trying to find ways to talk to the Australian media directly, over the heads of MSM.

  34. Ever noticed that since the introduction of computers and printers into the workforce the use and waste of paper has probably gone up 1000%

    Back in the days of typewriters and carbon paper nobody had the time to go through so much paper.

  36. [His views on climate change have also been lampooned, after he pointed to evidence of volcanoes causing global warming. ]
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25094907-5018787,00.html

    [A CARBON-TRADING scheme would cost Queensland business billions of dollars and should be delayed until the economy picked up, Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg said yesterday.]
    [Claiming the planet could “cool down and warm up very quickly”, the Liberal National Party leader and former farmer said he had “always believed in climate change”.]

    A dead give away that he didn’t until recently.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25169390-5018775,00.html

  37. [Bryce McGain 10 Overs 2 Maidens 93 Runs 0 Wickets 9.30 Runs Per Over]

    Why the hell they picked an ageing spinner to make his debut now I cannot work out. He turns 37 next week ffs!!!

  39. TP @ 286

    Thank you for the links. Culled from the two links, Borg:

    1. Asserts that climate change exists.
    2. Asserts that it can change very quickly up and down.
    3. Asserts that volcanoes cause it.
    4. Asserts that Bligh has done nothing to mitigate climate change by ignoring food security and allowing building to occur in those coastal bits of Queensland that might get wet.
    5. Asserts that something should be done about emissions because they are bad for your health.
    6. Asserts that it is too soon to do anything about it because it will cost jobs.

    Yep, all that should just about stop global warming in its tracks.

  40. By the way as nobody has said it yet…

    Thank you Julia Gillard for all your effort from beginning to end. A wonderful effort that must earn the highest praise.

    Congratulations Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, the Labor Party, the Greens, Senator Fielding and especially the Australian people for exercising democracy to remove a very nasty stain from our history.

    Hail Julia Gillard!

  42. [What do these two people have in common (apart looking like they attend the same school of arrogant sneers)?]

    They were both PMs who implemented controversial IR legislation, and lost the next election as well as their own parliamentary seat?

  43. Yes. Watching turnbull mouth off in the HOR feeling so victorious just note how smiley Julia was and staring him. Gillard knew then that he was the loser. JG has won a huge psychological over turnbull.

  44. I think I have made my view on Senator Conroy little effort to censor the net.

    Here is a link to Getups campain:
    http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/SaveTheNet&id=576

    Here is a link the the current black list, don’t worry William Australia has reached the standard of Chine, it’s been blocked. But do let us know if you feel you have to snip is anyway.
    http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Australian_government_secret_ACMA_internet_censorship_blacklist%2C_6_Aug_2008#The_ACMA_blacklist

    At least things aren’t as bad as the anti terrorist laws where you couldn’t even talk about the abuse of power.

  46. Vera et. al.,

    [
    “Quite often, their desires and their involvements are not mutually exclusive, and in my case, what I did as a musician and in the Oils and in those other activities connects very directly to what I’m doing now.”

    The curious thing is how few observers see the connection, and how they tend to regard Garrett, the uncompromising and charismatic rock star, and Garrett, the cautious and too-often colourless Federal Government minister, as if they are two very different people.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/best-of-both-worlds-20090320-94hs.html?page=-1
    ]

  47. TP @ 283 & 290,

    EXACTLY on both scores! 😀 …… That is one big reason why (1) I am NOT in America and (2) why I’m an Australian citizen. {I’m a dual citizen US by birth}

    Julia is great, Kevin is great, the whole country is great and yeah, we’ve got the right wing rabble too (Libs vs. Republicans) but in Oz, the country is on the right track. Not in the US and with the Reps. making up a proportional amount of 280 million or so (?) their noise is much louder on a day to day basis than the Libs here. Don’t know if it will ever be figured out and put back onto the right track …..

  48. Glen et. al.,

    [
    The Coalition will still be branded with the memory of WorkChoices, but it should be able to move on — though finding an industrial relations policy for next year’s election will be a challenge. It could do worse than what Howard in opposition did with Medicare — simply embrace and learn to love Labor’s scheme on the grounds the people want it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/gillards-steel-helps-grind-workchoices-into-extinction-20090320-94hn.html
    ]

  49. The week in parliament from a teenager’s view point 😀 ….

    [
    The Alcopops Diaries, by A. Backbencher

    Okay, so the @*%#, like, totally hit the fan this week.

    Remember a year ago when Kevin went all mental about binge drinking?

    He rang up all the newspapers one day and said, “I’ve got this big story for you but it’s like, totally secret.”

    And so all the newspapers went like, yeah, OK, and then Kevin got all these public servants in and they spent all day making up this new announcement.

    Kevin rang all the newspapers that night and he was like, set your face to stunned! It was a new tax on Bacardi Breezers and stuff.

    All the parents were like, “Excellent!” and it was cool because Kevin got all this extra money, too.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/its-heaps-serious-kevin-went-mental-20090320-94dm.html?page=-1
    ]

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