Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  1. I am pretty sure it wasn’t mentioned on Channel 9 News Adelaide, but I am not totally sure because I was flicking back and forth between 7 and 9.

  2. [Unless they do a live cross from said walk :-)]
    Now that would be totally awesome. With him just walking around parliament house wearing a headset.

  3. [With him just walking around parliament house wearing a headset.]

    Nah, radio lapel mic and an earpiece like what Kerry wears if you look carefully.

    OMG, Breaking (delayed) News, Labor has struck a deal to pass the Fair Work Bill 🙂

  4. Cheers SHowsON – I should know to read previous post (but great minds…!)

    I think she’ll dump it at Christmas. My mail is a reshuffle in December.

    (btw my mail is me just thinking stuff) 🙂

  5. Diogenes
    [Isn’t there something a bit weird that an equal vote for the final draft of alcopops means it dies but an equal vote for the IR laws gets it through?]

    Only because of the roundabout way it occurred. They were effectively voting again on the amendment that passed last night, but this time it didn’t get the required majority.

    It’s just as well that the Senate rules don’t require a majority to overturn the first vote, but they were probably designed with this kind of situation in mind. The HOR is the government and should have the right to require the Senate to reconsider the amendment from scratch.

  6. Finns

    The House passed the bill to tax AIG bonuses at 90%.

    In other news, the Empire strikes back at the hapless Conroy.

    [Anti-censorship site Wikileaks has threatened Australian Communications Minister Senator Stephen Conroy with criminal prosecution if he attempts to discover the source of its leaked Australian Internet blacklist. Wikileaks says that under Swedish law it is a criminal offence to try to breach confidentiality agreements between the press and sources.]

    http://www.itwire.com/content/view/23959/1023/

  7. Incredibly, Fair Work was not among the headline stories that opened ABC TV news in Melbourne, and the jailed judge got top billing.

  8. [They must think the viewers won’t easily tolerate more politics so soon after alcopops.]

    If the ABC is making decisions on whether to run or where to run political stories based on what viewers would tolerate then they have truly lost the plot as the national broadcaster

  9. [If the ABC is making decisions on whether to run or where to run political stories based on what viewers would tolerate then they have truly lost the plot as the national broadcaster]

    Alas “Our ABC” are now slaves to the ratings gods, hence the dumbing down across the network 🙁

  10. [Alas “Our ABC” are now slaves to the ratings gods, hence the dumbing down across the network]

    Therein lies the problem. Even ABC online news writes links to suck people in to clicking on them rather then accurately describing the story they link to. It’s pathetic.

  11. #69
    I agree, but that’s the only explanation I can think of. The judge could have waited; that’s only a mid-bulletin worthy item. They trumpeted the alcopops failure the other day. Was that more important than an IR revolution? Blatant political bias is the only other possibility I can see.

  12. I propose that henceforth the death of worstchoices bill be called the emily davison ACT

    Emily davison was the suffragette who threw herself under the kings horse at the 1913 derby

  13. Zombie, don’t forget Anna will get the lions share and then some of the Greens preferences. Doesn’t matter if it has to go to 2PP to end it because if it comes to that, LNP haven’t got a snowballs chance 😀

  14. [workchoices dead, newspoll says 50/50 Anna still in the game. Things starting to look up.]

    They said 50/50 on the Eve of the WA State Election and look what happened – we got Barnett and Laws generated by Talkback and the WA Police Union.

  15. It was the fourth item on ABC in SA. They covered it quite well but it got a low profile. The story itself was fine.

  16. [Zombie, don’t forget Anna will get the lions share and then some of the Greens preferences.]

    unfortunately (or not) they’re optional preferences in QLD.

    When I lived in QLD I liked not having to number every box.

  17. Had to pop back to celebrate the fantastic result for Julia and Labor on this outcome. Julia has probably taken over my estimation of Paul Keating as a killer, consumate, master politician. My Invisible Friend, she’s gooood!
    I realise from having an earlier look at the Crikey live thingy that tomorrow’s Q’L’D election is very iffy, in terms of outcome. However, what do others think would be the impact on the Fed./ State dynamic, if some one as stupid as The Borg was Premier? Wo

  18. WTF? Turnbull is trying to claim credit for the execution of workchoices.

    [
    Mr Turnbull said the Coalition had helped make the laws “less bad” so they would destroy fewer jobs.

    The Coalition was effectively spared a full vote on the final version of the Government’s industrial legislation because the Senate – because of quirks of process – only voted on whether or not it would insist on certain amendments.

    Mr Turnbull maintained that Work Choices was dead – and the Opposition had helped kill it off early today. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25216235-601,00.html

  19. [However, what do others think would be the impact on the Fed./ State dynamic, if some one as stupid as The Borg was Premier? Wo]

    Absolute disaster! The whole bunch of them are incompetent.

  20. [Mr Turnbull maintained that Work Choices was dead – and the Opposition had helped kill it off early today. ]
    If Turnbull really helped kill it off, the House and Senate wouldn’t of had to sit today.

  21. Watch out for the ABC,s main story, it’ll be something like
    ‘Hero of the people Turnbull saves the day by killing off Workchoices’

  22. We had a power blackout at 5.15 p.m. and we lost APAC. What did Mason do? The last thing I saw was Erica raving on about Julia.

    Skynoos had Shadow IR bloke – is it Keeton? He and Turnbull must be spinning he same yarn. Said that they had framed the bill to make it better!!

    Does Xenophon really believe talkback radio callers – he must be a bit naive. What small business has got the time to ring up looney shockjocks.

  23. Hey, Socs, have you been posting material on the ABC site somewhat different to what you normally post here?

    [socrates:

    20 Mar 2009 5:30:38pm

    The ego has finally landed! Gillard has finally compromised on a small definitional amendment and seen common sense. This seems to have been about her monumental ego and her inability to understand that politics is the art of compromise. She has wasted god knows much in taxpayers’ money holding up both Houses while she strutted her pride. Anyway good riddance to Work Choices – but all this could have been achieved much earlier with a more open minded approach. And don’t blame the Senate – we all know how it works.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/20/2522077.htm

  24. The other side of the Danish Muhammad cartoons fiasco:
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25216959-23109,00.html
    [STIFLED by heavy-handed censors, a dozen Arab cartoonists have spirited to Lebanon drawings banned in their own countries and have put on them on display in Beirut as their way of fighting back.

    The cartoons from Sudan, Syria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq and other Arab capitals provide a satirical view of an Arab world eaten by totalitarianism, corruption, rampant unemployment and chronic violence.]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25216959-23109,00.html

  25. scorpio @ 84, it’s pretty much what I was thinking. If the Borg doesn’t believe there’s a Global Financial Fiasco and that global warming is caused by volcanic activity, and he thinks that slashing jobs is a good idea while being unable to explain how he’ll fund his election promises, the next COAG may be interesting as everyone present, including Barnett, leaps over the table to throttle him, or implodes from trying to resist the urge to do so.

  26. My goodness, could this be true?

    Howard’s Work Choices lies exposed

    [It took very little time for the federal government’s lies about Work Choices to be exposed. Many workers were sacked on the day Work Choices came into operation, immediately revealing that the new law’s sole purpose was to screw workers. As each day passes, more injustices against workers are revealed, making it clear that the laws are giving bosses greater confidence to wield the hatchet.

    As for the $55 million spent on propaganda promising that award conditions would be protected, you only have to read the Office of the Employment Advocate’s own findings to realise that it is bulldust.]

    [On May 29, OEA head Peter McIlwain revealed to a Senate Estimates Committee that every Australian Workplace Agreement (AWA) lodged under Work Choices has removed at least one protected award condition. Penalty rates, shift allowances and annual leave loading have been abolished in the majority of new individual contracts, leaving employees thousands of dollars worse off than they would be under an award.

    McIlwain also revealed that:

    * annual leave loading has been erased in 64% of AWAs lodged under the new laws;

    * penalty rates have disappeared in 63%;

    * shift allowances have been removed in 52% of AWAs;

    * 16% of agreements have dropped all award conditions and replaced them with just the government’s five minimum conditions;

    * 40% of the agreements have dropped government-recognised public holidays;

    * 31% of agreements modified overtime loading, with 29% changing rest breaks and 27% altering public holiday payments; and

    * more than one in five new workplace agreements (22%) contain no pay increases over the life of the agreement.]

    Some time later….

    [Workplace Relations Minister Julia Gillard has declared Work Choices “finally buried” after the Senate passed Labor’s Fair Work bill on Friday.

    A relieved Ms Gillard told reporters that Labor had fulfilled its promise to get rid of the Howard government’s industrial relation (IR) laws almost three years after they were introduced.]

  27. Brace yourselves bludgers. It is going to be very close.

    The late momentum is with the LNP. The LNP has firmed from 2.80 to 2.20. The ALP has eased from 1.50 to 1.67.

    QLD may have a new Premier tomorrow night???

  28. Dario, I’m over whomever’s ABC, on the whole, in relation to political reporting and analysis. The corruption of language used to describe events being a big reason. If I had the time and resources, there’s a nifty audio analysis research tool you could use to demonstrate distortion away from impartiality. If I ever win Tatts, I’ll go back to Uni., and do such research. And porcine creatures might take to the air.

  29. Only one comment on the QLD election here – if they elect Springborg then they are simply nuts, voting for change for its own sake without paying attention to what Borg is saying. The Hoover of Qld.

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