Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of NSW state voting intention shows a slight recovery for Labor from the disastrous November-December result, while still pointing to a Coalition landslide. Labor’s primary vote is up four points from the last survey’s record low 26 per cent, while the Coalition is down one point to 42 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead has moderated from 59-41 to 56-44. Nathan Rees has regained the lead over Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier, leading 34-29 after trailing 30-33 last time (although what really stands out is that 37 per cent are uncommitted). Rees’ approval rating is up three points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is down five to 42 per cent. O’Farrell’s ratings are said to be “steady”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

128 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW”

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  2. Phil at 101

    Monaro, Cessnock and Bathurst are all seats where the Coalition would probably do better by running a Liberal. Compare the Fed seats of Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. They wouldn’t run a Nat in such seats in a pink fit.

    Quite why they run a Nat in Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter is a bit beyond me. Basically, that seat has grape growing, coal mining and horse stud farms, with several large towns. Very little of the population in that seat lives in what you might call traditional hayseed country.

    In any event, I fully expect that in 2011 “solid” ALP seats will be crossing over, so to speak.

  3. Two stories on the ABC about two young people in court.

    [a judge has quashed a three-month jail sentence given to an 18-year-old graffiti vandal,]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507446.htm?section=justin

    [Breast-fondling teen avoids jail term, pleaded guilty to playing with the breasts of a 92-year-old woman with severe dementia ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507298.htm?section=justin

    Greg Smith the liberal shadow attorney general was very upset over one.

    [“On this issue I am very hardline because I think that this is a very serious problem which leads to worse crime,” he said.]

    Which one upset the sensitivities of Greg?

    Never underestimate the abilities of the liberal party.

  4. I have figured out why the ALP vote went up over Christmas.

    Since the Parliament did not sit for 3 months, that means there was less chance for a NSW ALP patented stuff up. It only took them 1 day to get back into it.

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25140426-5001021,00.html

    I guess if you do as little as the NSW ALP, you like to sleep too…… he really was reading his notes …. too bad the folder is closed, maybe he wrote in black ink on a black folder

  5. Dovif, if that is the worst crime they committ between now and the election they may stand a chance of avoiding a complete wipeout. How bloody petty of the Daily Pornograph.

  6. Gary

    If I was found asleep at my work, I would be fired.

    These people only work about 100 days a year, the least we could ask them for is to stay awake for those days.

    It might not be hugh, but it speaks volume about how arrogant and out of touch some politicians are. It is also the second time he had done it

    NSW Labor – Asleep on their Job!!!!

  7. Gary

    If I was found asleep at my work, I would be fired.

    These people only work about 100 days a year, the least we could ask them for is to stay awake for those days.

    It might not be hugh, but it speaks volume about how arrogant and out of touch some politicians are. It is also the second time he had done it

    NSW Labor – Asleep on their Job!!!!

  8. [If I was found asleep at my work, I would be fired.]
    I’m sure questions would be asked first Dovif and you would be given the chance to explain yourself. You would probably be given a second chance too. Stop trying to make a minor matter into a federal case. It is BS.

  11. Dovif, I think you’ll find that most politicians work nearly 365 days a year. They only sit in parliament for close to 100. (And I believe that the NSW Parliament sits more than any other in Australia)

  13. #112 Yes Gary he does. The Speaker is an Independent so it will be interesting to monitor his evenhandedness during the parliamentary sessions leading to the March 2011 poll.

  15. Nathan Rees is becoming arrogant and desperate. Barry O’Farrell was holding this disgraceful government to account and he gets kicked out. Nathan Rees and the Speaker should both be sacked right there for this injustice. Face it Nathan! Labor will be wiped out in 2011 so badly, it will take Labor 15 years to get out of opposition. The Liberals alone could win 60 seats in 2011 and then add the Nats.

  16. The speaker is an independent, and I think he’s more of an conservative independent anyways…

    He was focusing on the manner; even when there are things that outrage you, you still need to express it in a proper way…there are standard to abide by.

    And Torbay will never lose his seat,..lol it’s one of the safest in the state I think?

  17. Torbay’s from Armidale, which would make him an interesting guy if the people from there I’ve met are any guide. A large university town in the middle of a farming region, a couple of hours drive from Nimbin / Byron… it doesn’t really fall easily into any particular classification (urban trendy / rural conservative / whatever), so it makes plenty of sense he’s an independent.

    As for those numbers: 72.7% primary vote, 2pp margin 30.3% v Nat. Those numbers say ‘job for life’, whatever happens to the govt. Northern Tablelands will also see one of the smallest swings against Labor (primary vote wise) anywhere in the state. 😉

  21. [Haha, the NSW Labor Defence Force in this thread is amazing.]

    So what do you think of the stories and stance at 103 Ryan.

    Looks like a case of:

    “ya all can jiggle my nanas titties but don’t ya all graffitti ma wall.”

  22. # 119 Barry got fired up in Parliament over a DOCS issue. It has drawn attention to another failure of this government: child protection policy.

  25. Certainly not a good look to have the opposition leader chucked out.

    Sensible oppositions work out their tactics before QT – ie. when Barry gets his second warning, he sits down and someone relatively articulate like Smith or Berejiklian should maintain the rage. Or even Pru Goward, who is after all, the shadow in that portfolio.

    Overall I doubt it will hurt the Libs. Rebel Sports sold out of baseball bats some time ago…

  26. # 123 I agree, Gary, that parliamentarians should observe the rules (that is, the Standing Orders). It is also discourteous. However, I am less censorious than you about this instance of (mis)behaviour reflecting on O’Farrell’s leadership credentials or (as you would have it) lack thereof.

    #124 Yes, I agree that Rees ‘is not up to it’. I expect he will be replaced before the election, probably by a woman. My guess is it will be either the Deputy Premier (only if she wants it and Albo supports her decision) or the Planning Minister. But it will not happen until Obeid and Tripodi have sorted out the factional machinations.

    Hope you are well, Gary.

  28. How low can the NSW ALP go

    NSW government contribute $250,000 to a project after allocating a $1 Billion business park project to a company who donated $150k to the NSW ALP. I guess if you give me $150k we will give you $250k of taxpayer’s money
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25174019-5006009,00.html

    Hospital has no money to buy soap and hygene supplies, presumely the money had gone to ALP donor
    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25173973-5001021,00.html

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