The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of NSW state voting intention shows a slight recovery for Labor from the disastrous November-December result, while still pointing to a Coalition landslide. Labor’s primary vote is up four points from the last survey’s record low 26 per cent, while the Coalition is down one point to 42 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party lead has moderated from 59-41 to 56-44. Nathan Rees has regained the lead over Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier, leading 34-29 after trailing 30-33 last time (although what really stands out is that 37 per cent are uncommitted). Rees’ approval rating is up three points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is down five to 42 per cent. O’Farrell’s ratings are said to be “steady”.
56-44 is still good for the Coalition. If Rees were to call an election now, Labor would lose 35 seats to the Coalition. If Joe Hockey is NSW Liberal leader, I predict Labor would lose 40 seats. It just gets better for the Coalition.
How embarrassing for Labor. The only way they possibly turn it around is if those rumours of Tony Abbot leaving the Federal Parliament to become NSW leader came true.
#1
Why on earth would you want Hockey to come in and cause destabilisation within the party? Why draw attention to yourself when the public’s focus is squarely on Labor?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/rees-accused-over-family-ties-to-his-embattled-minister-20090302-8mef.html
Don’t worry Labor has decided that if there is good news for Rees, they are going to leak something to damage him. Labor is trying to self destruct before the next election
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25129239-5001021,00.html
Wow these clowns are really good, the Liberals do not have to attack labor, Labor is already doing a good job of it
labor is stuffed but any thoughts on the PP and Rees’ approval turnaround
I don’t think it’s unusual for even unpopular governments to win the preferred premier. Antony Green often reminds us of that one!
Possibly the public accept that the mess is not Rees’ fault personally, even though they want to give the government a huge kicking.
Yes, PP doesn’t mena much for Rees but watch out Fatty O’Barrel. The last thing that the NSW coalition needs is for those polss to keep rising.
Next NSW Premeier may even be Pru Goward?
I think the real question is whether O’Farrell will lead the Libs to the next election.
A drover’s dog’s tick would defeat Labor and the RW of the Libs know it. Barry O is performing poorly (PP numbers against Rees are woeful under the circumstances) but would still win. Throw in any other leader and the polls would not see any reduction in the Libs big lead.
Exactly two years to the next election – O’Farrell will not last the distance. The murmurings will start later this year as the RW gets behind one of its own.
Another Debnam would certainly spice things up!
There’s an unofficial line in the sand in a premier/PMs approval rating. When it gets below 50%, he/she is likely to lose the next election. Rees is only 37%, well within the losing category.
I was asking about Our old mate Nostradamus recently and his whereabouts. With a poll like this, one eyed logic would dictate the following,
“Clearly the trend is back to the Govt up from 41 TPP to 44 TPP, no doubt now that the movement is the Govt’s way. By the time of the election it will be ALP 53 LNP 47, a comfortable win.”
I can’t blame the NSW voters. Rees is just a symptom of the problem, not the cause. But he hasn’t turned out to be the solution either. They don’t deserve to win.
#9
Potential Liberal leadership is one thing that could take the gloss of the Libs. I don’t think it will cost them government, but might make it closer than it should be. It will be interesting to see whether Rees and co try to talk this up in the coming months.
#11
I wonder if any rusted on Labor types would even bother trying to spin for the NSW government anymore.
Graphic here:
Interesting, when the article said Labor’s increase was at the loss of minors and independents, I presumed The Greens would have been down, but they’re up 1 point.
I even think the 2PP figure is inflated for Labor, as they won’t necessarily be able to count on Greens preferences.
Two years to go. I believe Labor will lose the next election and deserve to do so but, as the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. It could be closer than we think yet.
The question for Labor is whether they can restrict their losses to a point where they are a competitive force at the next election in 2014. In 1988 they just managed this and held seats like Waverley, Drummoyne, Kogarah and Ashfield, in 2010 it will similar seats that make the difference between a bad loss and a total disaster. The fact that the core left vote of 40% is now divided between Labor & the Greens (unlike 1988) makes this more difficult. Is Nathan Rees where Anna Bligh will be 2 years from now?
as a Labor supporter I am of course pleased by this result. I don’t think that the Libs will take anything great away from it, the last one showed that the electorate was no longer listening to Labor (helped by the disgracefully biased media coverage I might say) this one indicates that they are starting to put that behind them and listen to us again. It also doesn’t bode well for O’Farell. to come second to Rees after the amount of garbage put on him by the media and toga party commentators on the radio can’t make him feel secure. The Labor government has a lot of capacity now to build up some momentum, this is a great start.
-yes, we would still loose the election if held this Saturday.
Eliis – Labor -I am pleased with the result, I don’t think that the Libs will take anything great away from it
Umm Labor’s vote is 30%, if the election was held today, Labor might not get 20 seats. The Liberal might control both houses of parliament based on this and might have a lower house Margin of 25-30.
That is a very good spin on the result as being great for Labor and bad for Liberal.
The two-party-preferred is meaningless when 28% are voting for a minor party/independent. The Greens are now sitting on 15%, which is now their highest vote in, like, forever. They have polled 13%+ at every poll since the beginning of 2008, with the exception of the first poll after Nathan Rees took over.
The Coalition is still on 42%, with the ALP still on a paltry 30%.
And yes, nearly every Preferred Premier/PM poll puts the incumbent ahead, even when they are clearly headed for electoral defeat. It’s pretty meaningless.
Oh, and look at Queensland, where the Greens are on the verge of exhausting statewide. And NSW is much worse than Queensland. If 12-13% vote Green (assuming that we’ll lose a bit off the top) and most of them exhaust the ALP will be devestated.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong – but the interesting thing is that The Greens in Queensland are peeved at the government over the Traveston Dam and that’s the biggest factor when it comes to preference negotiations. In NSW, it’s not an environmental issue but a general level of antipathy towards Labor over their attempts at privatisation, planning law changes, lack of investment and general incompetence.
I think the 2PP figure is still meaningful, so long as the pollsters model it correctly. i.e. That they take into account realise that a large % of preferences will exhaust.
No matter how high their primary vote, the Greens are unlikely to win any seats, and they only run second in the really safe seats. So for the most part we’re only concerned with where their preferences go.
The key marginals in Sydney and the Central Coast will still be straightforward two party contests.
The most interesting aspect of the poll is that Labor’s decline may have bottomed and that there are signs of a revival. This is bad news for the Libs who have had all the pundits and commentators cheering them on for yonks.
I accept that trends are the most important thing for polls and that 56/44 is still a good result. However, it will be interesting to see if Labor can make further inroads at the next poll and at what stage do the Libs start to feel that the certainty of power may not be certain and how they then react.
[That they take into account realise that a large % of preferences will exhaust.]
Normally it’s based on preference flows at the last election. I don’t believe Greens preferences will flow to Labor as comfortably as last time.
[No matter how high their primary vote, the Greens are unlikely to win any seats, ]
Am I missing something, or would an average swing of 6% (as indicated by this poll) demolish Labor in Balmain?
[if the election was held today]
The moment this is written the poll becomes meaningless. It isn’t being held today or tomorrow or next week. It may prove to be the case in two year’s time, who knows, but you cannot extrapolate from this poll what is going to happen 24 months down the track.
My working assumption has been that the Greens are unlikely to win any seats in NSW when they’re starved of Liberal preferences. But looking it up, Balmain 3.75%. I’ll concede it probably would be under threat.
Garry Bruce
Why have opinion polls then, just take a poll on the date of the election
It is an indication of how happy/unhappy people in a state are at the government and whether the government need to lift their act.
I think the people of NSW had spoken loudly, Labor is terminal in NSW, they are just fighting to see who will led the sinking ship in 2 years, whether it is Rees, Tebbett – who would lose her seat based on the poll, or Robertson.
They have ran the state broke, Health, Roads, Infrastructure are a mess. You cannot find a group of more incompetant people to run a state.
It looks like the greens may win three Legislative Council seats at the next election bringing their total to five because the quota is 13.64. Also if they get one or possibly more Legislative Assembly seats then they can ask questions of the majority of the government to whom they cannot at the moment as well as they are more likely to get media coverage for it. What are the requirements for parliamentary party status in NSW.
[It is an indication of how happy/unhappy people in a state are at the government and whether the government need to lift their act.]
Agreed. I didn’t question this aspect of the poll. Read what I said.
You left out some important words in your sentence – “It is an indication of how happy/unhappy people in a state are at the government AT THAT TIME OF THE POLITICAL CYCLE and whether the government need to lift their act.
Geoff Robinson @17
The election is due in 2011, not 2010, and the one after is due in 2015, not 2014.
Dyno just don’t try and use the poll as a definite indication as what will happen in 24 months time. Surely that is a reasonable position to take.
Sorry, I meant Dovif.
[ My working assumption has been that the Greens are unlikely to win any seats in NSW when they’re starved of Liberal preferences. But looking it up, Balmain 3.75%. I’ll concede it probably would be under threat. ]
The Liberals didn’t direct preference the Greens last time either – those margins are where they got all by themselves. With the swing that’s gonna happen to NSW Labor, Balmain and Marrickville are probably gone no matter what the Libs do; if the the Libs decide to change their 2007 policy and preference the Greens, well… they could be looking at a few more than that.
The whole state had gone to hell in a handbasket.I’m sure The Liberal party will just finish what labor started and stuff the place up completely.They will do this easily as they have not one policy worth a bumper ,just like Labor.I’d nearly vote for anyone even the east portland Billygoat ballbag dessicators party rather than vote for the major parties
Ellis @ 18. I disagree. There is now no capacity for this NSW ALP government to ‘build up some momentum’. The capacity will, of course, return in time but it will have to be in opposition. Further, you had better hope the ‘disaster’ scenario to which Geoff Robinson refers @ 17, does not come to be; otherwise, the time for the ALP to enliven some capacity might take longer than you wish.
David,
Labor has a war chest of capital expenditure projects that will start to roll out real soon. Spending money in local areas on things like kindergartens, schools, roads and sporting grounds. I doubt Labor will die wondering if they spent enough money to encourage people to vote for them.
GG @ 37 That is a fair point about the “war chest” and I acknowledge that if effectively implemented (that is, both administratively and politically), it gives the ALP some chance of averting the ‘disaster’ scenario.
Gary Bruce
Do you know what is asked in a opinion poll? if an election is held today, which side of politics would you vote for?
See this from Oz, if you do not understand
It is the best current guide for voter intention at the moment. So I am using the exact same word as an opinion poll, which you do not seem to comprehend
Yes the opinion poll could ask, what are your intention to vote in 24 months time, but since we do not know what will happen in 24 months time, that would just be moronic.
As for the ALP could improve in the next 24 months, well they have had 14 years of doing nothing, dispite the budget doubling and Rees has busily cut back spending at the start of a recession, what make anyone think they have any money to spend on capital project.
There was a recent artical that they have not even done budgets for the North West rail line, that was proposed 12 years ago. What make anyone think this will change?
[just don’t try and use the poll as a definite indication as what will happen in 24 months time. Surely that is a reasonable position to take.]
To me, these polls are reflective of polls signalling the end of the Howard Government. Something COULD change, but it’s unlikely to.
[Do you know what is asked in a opinion poll? if an election is held today, which side of politics would you vote for?]
What in the hell do you think I’ve been arguing?
For heaven sake Dovif let me repeat. Agreed. I didn’t question this aspect of the poll. It’s the interpretation that this will necessarily apply in two year’s time placed on it by others I question. As I said earlier I believe Labor will lose the next election and deserve to do so but, as the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. It could be closer than we think yet.
[Yes the opinion poll could ask, what are your intention to vote in 24 months time, but since we do not know what will happen in 24 months time, that would just be moronic.]
Agreed, so let’s not even go there.
In conclusion, let me repeat, let’s just not try and use the poll as an indication as what will happen in 24 months time. Surely that is a reasonable position to take.
It’s true that the Greens have gotten to where they are in Balmain and Marrickville without Liberal preferences, unlike in Sydney federal, Grayndler, Melbourne federal, state Melbourne, Richmond, Northcote, Brunswick and Fremantle state.
But while Liberal preferences might seal Balmain and Marrickville and rack up the margins, there isn’t really a clear next contender. Seats like Keira, Coogee, Blue Mountains, Ballina and Heffron are all possible contenders, but none of them are such “perfect storms” as the two inner-city seats.
LOL @ ellis.
Mate, you must be living in the basement of ALP Headquarters at Sussex Street. They have utterly ruined NSW and are terminal, deservedly so.
I would be quite happy if the ALP retained just 10 seats in the lower house.
No 3
I agree. It makes no sense for Abbott or Hockey to cause instability in NSW. The NSW Liberals already have a commanding lead in the polls, thus any upheaval or show of disunity would be disastrous and would be a recipe for 4 more years in opposition.
NSW Labor must go.
#37
“Labor has a war chest of capital expenditure projects that will start to roll out real soon. Spending money in local areas on things like kindergartens, schools, roads and sporting grounds. I doubt Labor will die wondering if they spent enough money to encourage people to vote for them”
In theory, yes. In practise the NSW government has made a mess of many capital works projects, particularly road and rail infrastructure. M5 East, X-city tunnel, Lane Cove, Epping-Chatswood, Clearways, new ticketing system, on again/off again M4 East, on again/off again NW and SW rail, light rail and metro lines…..
Just too many things have been dumped, delayed, done half-arsed or otherwise fiddled with. I doubt they’ll start impoving after 16 years not getting it right. If these things were finally implemented the attitude from a tired and cynical electorate would be “About bloody time!” rather than “Wow what a visionary government!”
#42
In the current climate Coogee and BM would probably be won by the Liberals. At the very least, the Liberal vote would be too high for the Greens to finish second.
Keira is a bit of a dark horse for a Greens win in 2011. Northern Wollongong/Illawarra is becoming very good territory for them, especially with Labor on the nose.
[I would be quite happy if the ALP retained just 10 seats in the lower house.]
So you don’t believe in strong oppositions then. Oh yeah, what am I thinking, you support a weak Federal opposition.
GP,
“Labor must go”.
The last person to resort to such hysterical humbug was John Hewson in 1993. And, that ended well didn’t it!
[The strange electoral race in the Queensland seat of Beaudesert has taken another twist, with former Australian rules footballer Warwick Capper failing to nominate by today’s deadline.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2506486.htm
oops wrong thread!