Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

A very well timed Newspoll survey of 752 respondents shows Anna Bligh’s Labor government looking well placed with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – although this may be based on an unduly generous preference estimate. On the primary vote, Labor holds a narrow lead of 43 per cent to 42 per cent. This marks a correction from an aberrant looking result in the last quarter of 2008, when Labor led 45 per cent to 37 per cent (57-43 on two-party preferred). Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

212 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland”

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5

  3. Good point Diogenes,

    IN Queensland Sir Frank Nicklin worked and chiped away from 1943 until 1957 to achieve Government for the Country Party so it can happen with even more than three attempts. I think that lack of Loyalty in its leader lead to the National Party losing support in later periods.

  4. Wow! I looked Frank Nicklin up and he lost five successive elections as leader over a 16 year period. And then to go on to be premier for ten years is pretty amazing. He must have been a remarkable guy.

  5. Mind you Paul, he did become Premier after the unusual situation where Premier Vince Gair and all but one member of his cabinet were expelled from the Labor Party. Such spectacular splits don’t happen too often in politics.

  6. Lets not also forget Antony the gentleman he was afterall Vince Gair offered him the Deputy Premiership of a QLP_Country Party Coalition Government but he stood for Loyalty to his Liberal Party Junior collegues who would soon try and cut his troat with the beginning of the three-cornered contests in the 1960’s.

  7. Shades of Peter Beattie in the last days of a Joh Bjelke-Petersen!

    As for the rise of 3-cornered constest, the reason they didn’t happen before Nicklin became Premier was because Queensland used first-past-the-post voting at the time. Nicklin knew that with first past the post voting, the ALP-QLP split would guarantee Coalition victory, as it did.

    Both the Liberal and Country Parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete agianst each other, so it’s a bit rich to say the Liberals were trying to cut his throat. Both parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete against each other.

  8. [Showson when moved form my hometown of Toowoomba to Sydney in the early 1990s I relised where the majority of ethnics lived and its not in sunny Brisbane its in the Southern capitals. I remember travelling in the train to work every morning from Strathfield to Town Hall and they were everywhere. I’m so lucky I came back to Queensland I feel a lot more comfortable and secure.]

    #139, Are we talking about the world of 2009 or 1869?

    [they were everywhere]

    yes like germs, they were everywhere.

  10. Antony Green @ 157

    You can’t compare the circumstances between Vince Gair’s polite offer to Frank Nicklin following the 1957 ALP split in QLD to form a stable Government to Peter Beattie trying to use an manipulate a hurt, fragile and vunerable Sir Joh in his attempt to bring down the Ahern National Party Government.

    Sir Joh had experienced a year from hell in 1987 in his attempt to rid Australia from the A and B flickpass he loved Queensland and thought the Australian way should be the Queensland way to try and compare these two events is most disturbing.

  11. [Both the Liberal and Country Parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete agianst each other, so it’s a bit rich to say the Liberals were trying to cut his throat. Both parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete against each other.]

    And then ignorance comes along en masse after the Frome by-election where Libs whinge over Brock winning on Labor prefs.

  12. Anyway enough tripping back into the past the new look LNP is fresh with a new vision and new ideas to take Queensland further to the right and make the Sunshine State shine above all the states throughout Australia and maybe some in the United States itself.

  14. [Anyway enough tripping back into the past the new look LNP is fresh with a new vision and new ideas to take Queensland further to the right]

    New branding, same stale vision. Parties win by moving to the centre, not to the extremes.

  18. Paul Nash

    I agree completely, we should put a fence around Queenland and kick out all those smelly ethnics

    We should start with Anne Bligonski, Lawrence Springbogwitz, all Qld school kids should be taught Mein Kumf, we will need to invite the communist in. But if they were Chinese, we will have to kick them out again

    We will all wear white conehead as well, I love Qld

  19. Paul Nash

    I agree completely, we should put a fence around Queenland and kick out all those smelly ethnics

    We should start with Anne Bligonski, Lawrence Springbogwitz, all Qld school kids should be taught Mein Kumf, we will need to invite the communist in. But if they were Chinese, we will have to kick them out again

    We will all wear white conehead as well, I love Qld

  23. One thing that voters in Queensland should be reminded of this election is that in the 20 years that Labor has dominated Queensland Politics they rarely run their full three years.
    In 1992 Goss went early by three months
    In 1995 Goss went early by two months
    In 2001 Beattie went early by four months
    in 2006 Beattie went early by five months
    and in 2009 Bligh goes early by six months

    Should Queensland voters reward Labor for not running their full three years I don’t think so its time for change. LABORS GOT TO GO

  27. Thats right after 10 years of boom just before a recession hits Labor in Queensland as left the state broke with little room to fight a Recession. Its just Socialism and its just not right weve suffered for long enough we need a strong direction and sense of right wing purpose.

  29. Paul Nash, your post at 118 had this accusation. It is blatantly false. Please provide “ANY” proof that what you claim here contains even a remote semblance of truth.

    [Recently a new rail line and port was approved by the State Government in Central Queensland this project was rejected by Federal Environment minister Peter Garrett and not a word of Protest from Premier Bligh. The Shoalhaven development would have provided thousands of jobs for people in the Rockhampton area crying out for employment.]

  32. Surely Scorpio you can’t be getting offended by the Nash. In all seriousness, labor has it in the bag but how many seats are they likely to lose and how many to gain. what are the mrginals seriously at play?

  33. centaur009 @ 182,

    I don’t any of that is of concern to Mr Nash. His only concern appears to be to disrupt the thread with multiple, inflamatory comments which he hopes will get a response from posters who take the thread seriously and put forward sensible, well throughout comments which address the subject of the thread.

  34. I don’t (think)any of that…

    No, not offended at all, centaur009. I do though, think that Mr Nash is just wasting his time and William’s bandwidth.

  36. Paul Nash, that’s because QLD doesn’t have fixed terms, like federal.

    In federal politics, the last election to be called following a completion of the entire term was the 1910 election.

  37. Paul Nash, please learn the difference between a budget deficit and a recession. You’re a National so I can understand why you might have trouble grasping the concept, so here goes.

    No state has recorded two quarters of negative growth. No states are in a recession (at least, one doesn’t spring to mind). The budgets have all gone in to deficit around the country because tax income has declined sharply. Look at the Liberal/National government in WA – it is also going in to a deficit because of this very reason. Should we assume WA Labor was superior to the WA Lib/Nats just because Labor ran a surplus whole the WA Libs/Nats are going in to deficit? No, governments don’t control the economy, the market does. And if you still think they do, you would probably pay for the bear patrol tax because the rock is keeping bears away.

    Idiot.

  38. bob1234

    How do you explain Kevin Rudd spending $22 billion of our money on short term stimulus then, he thinks he can control the economy and prevent 300,000 job losses.

  39. A government can attempt to influence the economy, but they cannot control it. Cash handouts are the short term stimulus, and the infrastructure spending is the medium and long term stimulus. The IMF, the RBA, the OECD, the Senate enquiry, and 95% of economists support the stimulus package that the Rudd government has proposed, which is very similar to the Obama package.

    It’s a better recipe than a Liberal government which would just cut spending everywhere. Look what happened when they did that in the Great Depression.

  40. No not similar to the Obama package at all, the obama package offer tax cut to all people who lodge tax, only those who does not lodge gets handout

    This is because tax cut is a quick but longer term stimulus

  42. dovif, unlike the US, the Rudd government already has tax cuts being implemented every year. It was an election committment. So tax cuts are already there.

    Not to mention the IMF, the RBA, the OECD, the Senate enquiry, and 95% of economists all agree that tax cuts are not a good economic stimulus.

  43. The Daylight Saving Party (DS4SEQ) had previously announced that they would stand candidates in 69 seats, but has now announced that it “plans to field candidates in 20 to 30 seats, including Indooroopilly, Chatsworth, and electorates on the Gold Coast”.

    “The only other single-issue party on the Queensland ticket, The Fishing Party (Qld), has pulled out of the race. Party leader Kevin Collins blamed a legal dispute with its rival, The Fishing Party, which was registered in NSW eight years ago and has asked the Administrative Appeals Tribunal to deregister the newer Queensland namesake.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25103217-5018775,00.html

    Meanwhile, The Greens currently have 31 candidates listed on their website.

    The Family First website is not currently showing candidates, although they have previously announced some in various local (eg – Quest) newspapers.

  45. I don’t profess to be Nostradamus, but judging by how things are going at the moment I don’t see a change in government, even though ALP will lose a swag of seats. I think the end result will be a Bligh majority of something in the order of eight to fourteen seats.

    Pauline Hanson has not a televangelist’s chance in Nimbin of winning Beaudesert; if she had even a two-digit IQ she should have selected a different electorate.

  46. “Murray McNaught, manager of Infinity Solar, which installed the system facing south at Mr Pollard’s request, said the panels were generating enough power to run the campaign office but he could not predict how efficient they would be during winter.”

    Winter? In Qld? Why weren’t we told?

  49. [In federal politics, the last election to be called following a completion of the entire term was the 1910 election.]

    Bob, unless you are playing some obscure word game, that statement is clearly wrong. The 2007 federal election was more than three years after the 2004 one.

  50. Whatever the faults of Colin Barnett, he’s no Springborg. Springborg’s not electable in the Brisbane seats that he would need to win.

    This ain’t going to be WA all over again.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5