Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

A very well timed Newspoll survey of 752 respondents shows Anna Bligh’s Labor government looking well placed with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – although this may be based on an unduly generous preference estimate. On the primary vote, Labor holds a narrow lead of 43 per cent to 42 per cent. This marks a correction from an aberrant looking result in the last quarter of 2008, when Labor led 45 per cent to 37 per cent (57-43 on two-party preferred). Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

212 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland”

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  1. Dio,

    Yes, I’m sure Bligh would have done some research – although not to so much to measure voting intention as to assess issues and messages.

    However, i don’t think it was research which prompted her to call an election but what they know about the future state of the Qld economy. They believe that it will be much harder to be re-elected in September.

  3. Companies like Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan do their surveys as an adjunct to normal market research. When you do one of these surveys, you get the political questions first then all the market research on products and services, have you seen such and such an ad, etc.

    All the rates are set on the basis of sample size and number of questions. It’s not cheap to do, from memory so many thousand dollars per question. A standard Federal Newspoll has a minimum 5 questions, usually more, and you’d have another 5 on state politics added at the same time which are then accumulated every certain number of months.

    Then there are other questions, most important issues, etc. It’s all very expensive. To do it as a stand alone survey seperate from the market research is even more expensive.

    Whenever you see a survey with a high undecided, it is usually because they cut costs by asking only one question on voter behaviour, where all the big companies probe the undecided on which way they are leaning. That is another question and costs.

  4. Additional Notes on Green preferences.

    Seats where a candidate other than a ALP or LNP candidate came either first or second in final count in 2006: (Figures extracted from ECQ website unless otherwise stated).

    NOOSA (Lib v Ind) – Greens vote at exhaustion 2985 from 2771 primary. Exhausted 1327 or 44.46%. Distributed- 1658 with 27.72% to ALP, 29.32% to Ind (Kate Molloy), 42.96% to Lib.

    NICKLIN (IND v NPA) – Greens vote at exhaustion 1836 from 1836 primary. Exhausted 685 or 37.31%. Distributed- 1151 with 22.24% to ALP, 65.33% to Ind (Peter Wellington), 12.42% to NPA.

    MARYBOROUGH (IND v ALP) – Greens vote at exhaustion 1387 from 1387 primary. Exhausted 550 or 39.65%. Distributed- 837 with 22.46% to ALP, 64.16% to Ind (Chris Foley), 13.88% to NPA.

    GYMPIE (NPA v IND) – Greens vote at exhaustion 3088 from 2598 primary. Exhausted 1117 or 36.17%. Distributed- 1971 with 15.78% to ALP, 61.19% to Ind (Rae Gate), 23.03% to NPA.

    TABLELANDS (NPA v One Nation) – Greens vote at exhaustion 819 from 789 primary. Exhausted 317 or 38.71%. Distributed- 502 with 60.56% to ALP, 26.10% to One Nation (Rosa Lee Long), 13.35% to NPA.

    Additional comment- NPA excluded last, with vote at exhaustion 4706 of 4574 primary. Exhausted 2797 or 59.43%. Distributed- 1909 with 84.49% to One Nation and 15.51% to ALP.

    The new seat of Dalrymple (made up of parts of Tablelands and Charters Towers) could be fascinating, and I would expect that the ALP will be excluded, and that many ALP non-exhausting voters will ‘return the favour’ and preference One Nation ahead of the LNP. The critical issue probably being the exhaustion rate. Antony Green reports that: “On the new boundaries, the Liberal National first preference vote was 34.9% in 2006, One Nation 32.4% and Labor 28.8%. One Nation did not contest Charters Towers in 2006, which means the redistribution calculations underestimate One Nation support at the 2006 election.” – http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/dalr.htm

    GLADSTONE – (IND v ALP) no Greens candidate

    NANANGO– (IND v NPA) no Greens candidate

  5. Antony

    What about Essential Research? They have been great for this site but they don’t get mentioned in the media much. They seem to run more polls than anyone at the moment. They’re obviously not doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. Are they doing it as a loss leader in the hope of becoming a big player or is something else going on?

  6. I agree that Gympie would be a likely seta for Pauline Hanson to stand in, if she stands at all. One Nation however has not held Gympie since Ms Roberts, having won it as a One Nation candidate in 2001, resigned from the One Nation party in 2002. She stood in 2004 as an independent and won with an increased majority (from memory) before standing again in 2006 but securing less than 10%.

  7. Fargo, it would be a blow to the Nationals to have the most likely replacement for Springborg defeated at the forthcoming poll but them’s the breaks if they refuse to put their best talent in the Shadow Ministry.

  9. [Thanks! I’ll read with great interest]

    That is one big plus for having independents and small parties in Parliament. Sometimes their speeches just boggle the mind.

  10. As I recall it, One Nation was originally pro the Traveston Crossing Dam but changed side once the heat and pressure began to build. It will be interesting to see what position Hanson would take. She might cast herself as Chief Green.

  11. [That is one big plus for having independents and small parties in Parliament. Sometimes their speeches just boggle the mind.]
    It’s a real piece of work. I felt like cut and pasting the entire thing.

  12. No wonder we don’t need an upper house here. Wth One Nation and the National Party three ring circus of Springborg, McArdle and Nicholls it is a never ending drama. Remember when the Liberals were going to hold a Lucky Dip to break the Liberal deadlock?

    When the merger happened they had to make McArdle Deputy Leader and Nicholls Shadow Treasurer to keep the factions on side. Traditionally in Queensland the National has been Leader and the Liberal both Deputy Leader as well as Treasurer. I am still waiting for Nicholls and Mc Ardle to explain to journalists their economic policy, it will make Springborg’s effort today look like sheer genius.

  15. Is it my imagination, but is the Labor slogan “Keeping Qld Strong” a direct steal from one of the “Joh and the Nationals” slogans from the 80s?

    Even if that’s not true, it’s incredibly scary. Strength is what we look to dictatorships for, in normal situations…

  16. For those of you who are wondering, my Queensland blogging activities over the next few weeks will be conducted at Crikey’s new Pineapple Party Time blog. I’m keeping this thread open for now, but I’ll be ending discussion of the campaign on this site when I get time to announce the changeover with a little more fanfare. Coverage of matters federal and in other states will continue as normal at the Poll Bludger.

  18. Whilst the polls don’t show it at this point Queenslanders are fed up with Anna Bligh and her spineless Labor team.

    Queenslanders are crying out for a pro-development anti-environmentalist Government that will drive more and more people out of poverty.

    Recently a new rail line and port was approved by the State Government in Central Queensland this project was rejected by Federal Environment minister Peter Garrett and not a word of Protest from Premier Bligh. The Shoalhaven development would have provided thousands of jobs for people in the Rockhampton area crying out for employment. Labor no longer is the party of full employment.

    The new look LNP will stand up for Queensland like previous National Party Governments did against Canberras interference in Queensland growth and development. One must question Newspoll in particular I remember seeing a picture of the staff of Newspoll all based in Sydney will little knowledge of Queenslands unique political culture. The staff look really ethnic and i can imagine them making mistakes like thinknig Birdsville was a suburb of Brisbane. The polls just aren’t accurate when people telephoning can’t even speak proper english to gauge voter opinion.

  21. The Borg is one with the people. How can he run and get rejected again. surely he’ll have to dissappear after this. is this 3rd time lucky or 4th time lucky?

  22. [The staff look really ethnic and i can imagine them making mistakes like thinknig Birdsville was a suburb of Brisbane. ]
    Yeah don’t get me started on those ethnics. I mean, they are infiltrating the LNP. Just look at some of the names:
    Ostapovitch, Langbroek, Frizzell, Caltabiano. There’s no way they’ll have ANY idea about how to run QLD. They’ll think they are in the Mediterranean, or the Middle East.

  25. [http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/billionaire-palmer-sues-bligh/2009/02/25/1235237693283.html Billionaire Palmer sues Bligh]

    [Billionaire Clive Palmer has launched defamation action against both Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Treasurer Andrew Fraser.

    The mining magnate, who is the biggest single donor to Queensland’s opposition Liberal National Party (LNP), lodged a statement of claim against the premier yesterday in the Queensland Supreme Court in Brisbane.

    It is believed he is demanding $1 million and a public apology from Ms Bligh following her comments in an ABC television interview last month questioning his influence on the LNP.

    Mr Palmer also launched defamation action against Mr Fraser in the Brisbane District Court demanding $200,000 and a public apology over his comments to The Australian newspaper.]

  27. Paul Nash (118) – Straight out of the LNP offices? If the polls change significantly I’ll take some notice of what you say until then I see it as wishful thinking on your part.

  28. I certainly won’t be voting One Nation as I Know its secrets OLdfield, Ettridge and Hanson all ex?

    I hope the people of Beaudesert make sure Hanson doesn’t even get her deposit back.

  30. [I certainly won’t be voting One Nation as I Know its secrets OLdfield, Ettridge and Hanson all ex?]
    WHAT! You are going to support all the ethnics in the LNP! They will FAIL TO RUIN THE ENVIRONMENT! We need more ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION to ensure the ETHNIC FACTION of the LNP understands Queensland properly.

  31. But Show’s Own they are most likely German collaborators and peoples exempt from the white Australia policy. There are no wogs, paki’s or nips amongst them.

  36. Anyway Showson,

    No stirring from this blog can conceal my excitement at voting at this upcoming Queensland election for finally after 12 years of living in the Metropolitan seat of Clayfield I finally have a party I can feel proud to vote for.

  38. [I finally have a party I can feel proud to vote for.]
    Just remember, that party has already been infiltrated by ETHNICS. So if you vote for them, they’ll let other ETHNICS steal your JOB.
    [Its like 1983 and 1986 revisited in Metropolitan Brisbane]
    Except this time there are MORE ETHNICS.

  39. Showson when moved form my hometown of Toowoomba to Sydney in the early 1990s I relised where the majority of ethnics lived and its not in sunny Brisbane its in the Southern capitals. I remember travelling in the train to work every morning from Strathfield to Town Hall and they were everywhere. I’m so lucky I came back to Queensland I feel a lot more comfortable and secure.

  41. [I’m so lucky I came back to Queensland I feel a lot more comfortable and secure.]
    BUT THE ETHNICS ARE COMING! One thousand ETHNICS a week! They are going to steal your job, marry your daughters, blow up your car, make ETHNIC FOOD in your kitchen, steal your DOG and put it in ETHNIC STEW, infiltrate your BELOVED political party, in order to take over the ENTIRE STATE, then it will be renamed ETHNICLAND.

  43. The Country to National Party as always fought population increase and demographic change to remain a permanent fixture on Australia’s political landscape.

  46. Cenaur009 lets get one thing straight Pauline Hanson was a Liberal and her right hand man David Oldfield was a Sydney Liberal who served on the Manly council before he met Hanson he worked for Tony Abbott. NO ONE HAS THE CONCRETE PROOF YET BUT ONE DAY THE REAL TRUTH ABOUT ONE NATION WILL COME OUT AND IT WILL SHOCK PEOPLE.

  47. [The Country to National Party as always fought population increase and demographic change to remain a permanent fixture on Australia’s political landscape.]
    And yet they PRESELECTED ETHNICS by BILL O’CHEE!
    [O’Chee is Eurasian, having been born to a Chinese father and an Irish-Australian mother. This made him the first ethnic-Chinese Australian to be elected to the Parliament of Australia. At age 24, he was also the youngest person ever appointed to the Senate.]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_O%27Chee

  48. [NO ONE HAS THE CONCRETE PROOF YET BUT ONE DAY THE REAL TRUTH ABOUT ONE NATION WILL COME OUT AND IT WILL SHOCK PEOPLE.]
    THAT THEY HAVE INFILTRATED THE ETHNICALLY INFILTRATED LNP!

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