Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

A very well timed Newspoll survey of 752 respondents shows Anna Bligh’s Labor government looking well placed with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – although this may be based on an unduly generous preference estimate. On the primary vote, Labor holds a narrow lead of 43 per cent to 42 per cent. This marks a correction from an aberrant looking result in the last quarter of 2008, when Labor led 45 per cent to 37 per cent (57-43 on two-party preferred). Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

212 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland”

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  1. Steve, his form his good:

    http://www.mumble.com.au/index_oldish43.html

    September 6 [2007]

    [..]

    My hunch is that the Lib/Nats will win the two party preferred vote today. But will that be enough?

    My weaker hunch is: yes.

    My weak tip: a Barnett premiership.

    So I’m tipping, with no great certainty, a change of government in Western Australia.

    (We must assume the Nats will support Barnett.)

  2. I don’t see this newspoll telling us all that much. It is less than 800 voters over a one and a half month period. I just hope a 1000 person poll is done over this comming weekend so we can get a really good indication of where each party stands.

  3. Mumble also told us to put our money on John McCain in Nov 2008. If you throw enough stones at a building, you’re gonna break a window sooner or later. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  4. ruawake – looking at that entry, not a prediction (hence your choice of words), just playing the percentages.

    Diogenes – yes Brent talked up McCain’s chances much too much, in contradiction to his usual wisdom about the nature of the electoral cycle.

    Kit – hell no.

  5. Priceless! The LNP’s best asset in campaigning for metropolitan seats wont support them and the ALP’s best asset, Barnaby Joyce is going to campaign for them.

    Should be an interesting election campaign.

    [Cr Newman said he would spend the campaign on the sidelines, as the people of the city did not want him to play politics.

    Cr Newman, the only LNP government leader in Australia, yesterday said he would continue to work for the people of Brisbane, no matter who was state premier.

    “I am a member of a particular political party, the LNP, and I wish Lawrence Springborg the best. I hope he does well,” Cr Newman said. “(But) there’s been two elections since I’ve been the mayor and I’ve not played any prominent role. I don’t intend to this time.”

    However, Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce plans to campaign relentlessly in the state poll as federal politicians closely watch the first election to be called since the global financial meltdown hit Australia.

    Senator Joyce, who is widely viewed as a future federal leader of the Nationals, yesterday said he had begun lending his weight to Liberal National Party candidates on the hustings.

    “If I’m not in Canberra, I’ll be campaigning in Queensland,” he said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25097382-952,00.html

  6. What’s the point of this:

    [Cr Newman, the only LNP government leader in Australia]

    Considering the LNP only exists in one state, at most there can only be two LNP “government leaders”.

  7. Mumble consistently predicted a Labor victory federally in 07 for a long time (years) before the election. Anyone who thinks he’s a cheerleader for the Liberals isn’t paying attention. Sometimes he’s wrong and sometimes he’s right but he’s not biased.

  8. [Sometimes heโ€™s wrong and sometimes heโ€™s right but heโ€™s not biased]

    No he isn’t biased, but he’s been wrong about as much as he’s right, so I wouldn’t be hanging off too much of what he says

  9. I had to break my hiatus Re the rather uninformed comments re Mumble

    1. obviously those here dont remember the “poll wars” or mumble ripping shannas a new one
    2. So he gets some wrong-big deal but his unbiased analysis is the closest we have in this country to learned opine
    3. To suggest he is a liberal lackey demeans the poster(s) who wrotesuch. They are obviously of v. short memories

    “dont shoot the messenger”

  10. #25

    Also mumble seems to be a big believer in the electoral ‘cycle’: i.e. the bar gets higher for governments and lower for oppositions the longer a party’s in power. Given we’re now seeing some decade-old labor governments up for re-election, it’s not surprising he’d be predicting Liberal victories.

  11. [LNP Hospital pledge to deliver more beds for less money.]
    And let me guess, there economic policy is to produce a budget surplus by cutting taxes?

  12. [LNP Hospital pledge to deliver more beds for less money.]

    Yay, a PPP for a children’s hospital.

    They worked so well with the transport sector.

    In other news, the President of the Young LNP who is contesting a seat in this election has been kicked out of his position.

  13. LNP’s are ducking for cover allready;)
    [Billionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer has cancelled a planned media event on Tuesday.

    Mr Palmer, the biggest single donor to the Liberal National Party (LNP), was due to hold a media conference to talk about the upcoming Queensland election.

    But a spokesman said it had been cancelled due to “an urgent business matter”.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-magnate-cancels-media-conference-20090224-8gak.html

  14. The opposition’s policy from the 2006 election backs the single hospital concept, as recommended by the state’s Review of Paediatric Cardiac Services.

    “Currently specialist services are fragmented across a number of different hospitals,” the policy said.

    “The review makes it quite clear that this is not best practice for ensuring quality care for our children”.

    Are we going to have one dumb policy change per day from the LNP ? ๐Ÿ™

  15. Diog, If you think about it, the only political interest for her to call the election early would be Labor is ahead in the polling – but they’ve been ahead in most of the polling for along time. Beside that, this wouldn’t be the greatest time for her and Labor to go to the polls.

    Diog, I agree with your comments 99% of the time and find your posts interesting. But I come from Qld and see how long the courious snail election speculation articles have been going on, it became old real quick.

  16. [ First conservative ex-Nat Independent to run – Stuart Copeland ]

    Against Ray Hopper, who beat a National candidate in Cunningham a few years ago as an independent, then turned around and joined the party. Wouldn’t it be funny if he went out the same way, to Copeland?

  17. dogma

    What did you think about Mike Steketee’s article today saying that Labor were the ones fanning the flames to provoke self-fulfilling commentary about an early election? I have no idea if it’s true or not but he seems to be one of the few OO journos who is fairly impartial.

    In the final analysis, it isn’t really a big issue unless there’s some REALLY bad news to come that Bligh knows and we don’t.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html

  18. Diog, considering the article’s didn’t name Labor of any of their sources until Bligh commented yesterday, they seem to be covering their collective asses, as JB will attest to the mejia is not above it. Bligh said she made the final date last weekend. I still think that she wanted to go full term, to get more major projects started, but businesses were starting to say, we’ll wait until we know which government will be in place after the election. That can’t happen in this economic climate.

    Happy debating will be off for a while, be back later.

  19. I am pretty sure Mumbel has been pretty accurate recently, I think he bet on the Lib to win in WA (at about $4) and tipped them, he was right in the ACT election, he picked the Lib will go close in NT. Bet on the NSW Lib at $1.9 (wish I could get some of that odd). He switch to Obama.

    On 2PP terms, the Carpenter WA government’s opinion poll was better than Bligh Qld ALP before calling an early election. The next poll will be telling

  20. #37 There was talk of a mid March poll as early as the first week of December from those in the know. Certainly wasn’t decided ‘last weekend’. Beattie did the same thing in 01, 04 and 06. Classic ‘crisis management to claim a mandate tactic’ 01 was the Townsville rorts scandal, 04 was children’s services, 06 health crisis, this time its the economy.

  21. “Normally Newspollโ€™s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 โ€“ obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service”

    Seems like the OO and clones were caught short.
    Which is strange given that they have been constantly saying for a fair while that an election was ‘imminent’.
    Maybe they really didn’t believe themselves otherwise they could have had the Newspoll sitting in reserve waiting to go fully formed.

  22. This last sentence from Mike Steketee’s article demonstrates just how “impartial” he really is. It also demonstrates to the readers that political commentators such as him, regard the political process as nothing more than “spectator sport” and that the continued well-being of the Australian people takes a back seat.

    No proper analysis about which side will provide proper and effective govenence of the State. No. Just base your vote on whether or not you think the current Government should be tossed out because Steketee thinks they should be kicked in the shins. Tosser.

    [If for no other reason than treating voters as mugs, she deserves a good kick in the electoral shins.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html

  23. Barnaby Joyce on PM Agenda just said Anna Bligh will re-introduce death duties in Qld. I think this election will set a low point in gutter politics. ๐Ÿ™

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