Morgan: 59.5-40.5

Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:

• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:

Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.

• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.

• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.

• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.

• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.

• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  2. For those who still like to imagine Costello was a great treeasurer, Ross Gittins has an interesting comment on the difficulty in balancing the budget in future, not thanks to the stimulus, but Howard’s silly tax cuts for the rich:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/rudd-needs-courage-to-defuse-timebomb-20090222-8env.html?page=-1

    This is a nice quote for Bree:
    “This is the budget time-bomb John Howard and Peter Costello left for their Labor successors. Not quite the good budget managers they keep telling us they were.

    But this leaves a challenge for Kevin Rudd and Swan. Knowing the budget difficulties that lie ahead, why get yourself in deeper by going ahead with the now plainly unaffordable tax cuts scheduled for this July and next?

    Those tax cuts are biased in favour of individuals earning more than $80,000 a year, yielding princely savings of just $2.88 a week to low-income earners.”

    This might have the makings of a mandate for an early election: Rudd should back away from the upper end of teh post-July tax cuts, because they will be unaffordable without a mining boom to pay for them.

  3. Diogenes, in order to accuse Bligh of lying, as opposed to merely using guarded language to keep the Opposition guessing, you have to produce a quote in which she flatly said: “I will not call an election until September.” Until you do so, this is just hot air.

  4. Adam

    She was intellectually dishonest to say that she wouldn’t call an election as the state needed “political and economic stability” and then say that she called an early election because the state needed “political and economic stability”.

    That is not guarded. That is dishonest. Where I come from, using the exact same argument to argue to diametrically opposite views means you are full of sh1t.

  5. Diogenes you were the one who told us your dad was a Liberal, if it’s a touchy subject you only got yourself to blame 😛
    By the way I don’t need to defend Labor and Rudd’s honesty, you need to provide proof of their lies I feel 😛

  7. At least the beefo between the Amigo and Diog is more interesting than the QT.

    Amigo, i posted yesterday, Like Son Like fatner.

  8. [She was intellectually dishonest to say that she wouldn’t call an election as the state needed “political and economic stability” and then say that she called an early election because the state needed “political and economic stability”.]

    Alternatively both statements could be true. Did that occur to you? You could make an argument either way for each of the two scenarios being needed to bring stability.

  13. Geeze Dio take a breath. 😉

    Nearly everyday the election was speculated on. Business was indicating uncertainty, people was speculating, she probably wanted to wait until Sept. but if you’ve seen the RBA gov speak the other day, he said that in 3mths Global Financial markerts suffered the most contracted downturn ever. With 2000 people moving to Qld and the mining and retail sectors sheding jobs, Bligh probably thought it would be prudent to go to the elections now, rather than later.

  19. vera

    I’ve done so already. Rudd lied about the pink batts reducing carbon emissions. Wong lied about reducing household emissions not meaning industry can emit more carbon. Bligh lied about the reasons for going or not going to an early election.

    ltep
    It did in fact. That will reassure the public. When she says something one day it means the opposite to when she says it the day after. And both statements cannot be true as that would be paradoxical.

  20. Now we’ve gone from accusing her of lying to accusing her of “intellectually dishonesty”. She’s a politician, not a philosophy professor. This is how politicians operate, particularly when they’re being badgered by the Murdoch press every day to make an announcement. You know all this, you’re just being precious, so kindly don’t use the kind of language you directed at me at #454.

  22. If she said both at the same time it would be paradoxical. Not necessarily if she said them both weeks apart.

    If she responded to questions weeks ago by saying “I’m not telling you when I’m calling the election” then surely that would bring about instability?

  24. Hockey just asked Swan about fixed interest rates.
    Swan should remind Hockey that his political party ran a scare campaign telling voters that interest rates would be higher under Labor, which would’ve encouraged some to fix the rate of their loans.

    Chrissy Pyne just got warned!

  27. ShowsOn

    [Chrissy Pyne just got warned!]

    It’s time for you to send him another email as his employer asking him to reflect on the appropriateness of his actions.

  29. [It’s time for you to send him another email as his employer asking him to reflect on the appropriateness of his actions.]
    Why of course!

    LOL! Pyne is having a go at Albanese for reporting to the house about the floods!

  30. The strategy of the government is a good one in this QT. Let the Opposition fire off their best shots, knock them down as best possible, then go back to talking about how the government is assisting at a time of tragedy. This keeps the parliament quiet for a good portion of the time and prevents the opposition from getting on a roll with their attacks. Engage them as little as possible.

  31. I don’t see how he lied about the pink batts. I’m assuming his statements were what would happen to emissions without the CPRS, which hasn’t even been introduced yet.

  33. Finns

    There were a couple of times I thought of switching sides just to even things up. But it was Hillary. I just couldn’t do it. 👿

    ltep

    Fair enough for Rudd. Wong’s comments were certainly in the context of the CPRS though.

  36. Finn, naaaah Swannys just letting them know he’s no lightweight like Hockey and stirring a bit of sht by referring to him as deputy lol.

  38. [There were a couple of times I thought of switching sides just to even things up. But it was Hillary. ]

    Diog, Obi did and enjoying it. Ah, the attraction of an older woman.

    Let it download and you will be rewarded.

  40. [Perhaps you should reflect on how it is that you find yourself in their company.]

    No. Just having the temerity to criticise Labor politicians for the same things we criticised the Liberals for.

    I should have remembered that Labor is always right by definition. There is always an excuse when a Labor politician is talking rubbish but there never is when a Liberal is. I’ve learnt my lesson.

  44. Diogenes,

    Your dilemma is explained by invoking Yes Minister irregular verbs:

    Labor supporters discuss serious issues with facts and reasoned argument;
    You trivialise everything with hysterical exaggeration;
    Glen and GP are devious manipulative right wing troglodytes with a hidden agenda.

  47. Speculation that the US government is going to nationalise some banks is intensifying even though the Obama administration is attempting to quell them.

    The WSJ says that the government could end up owning 40% of Citibank.

  49. Essential Research: 62-38, up from 61-39. Also featured: more on the economy, support for federal control over primary health care (overwhelming), Rudd versus Costello as well as Turnbull, and – interestingly – how would you feel about an early election if the Opposition continued to oppose financial measures (38 per cent good, 34 per cent not good).

  50. [Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd or Peter Costello]

    [8 Sept 08 23 Feb 09
    Kevin Rudd 53% 62%
    Peter Costello 27% 21%
    Don’t know 20% 17%]

    Says it all really.

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