Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:

• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:

A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.

• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.

• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:

In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.

• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread”

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  7. Joe Hockey’s Howardesq style comment about Australians never being better off even with the GFC won’t go down too well with a lot of people, especially those in Property Investment Trusts.

    [ABOUT $6 billion has been wiped from the value of mum and dad investments after a meltdown in the nation’s $30 billion unlisted property trust sector.

    Those losses – stemming from tumbling commercial property values – are expected to continue to balloon this year, with many investors trapped in frozen funds and unable to reduce the pain, reports The Australian.]

    And the Coalition strategy of blaming Rudd for the freezing of funds in those Institutions gets shot out of the water when the real reason is that they are bleeding funds at a concerning rate and couldn’t meet thowse withdraw2als without going insolvent.

    [“A fair number of those funds are frozen to redemptions, but a number of people are on regular contributions, which means their money just keeps flowing in,” Mr Prosser said yesterday.

    He said commercial property values were likely to remain under pressure for at least another year.]

    [“If the funds are not frozen it’s actually very bad for them to be in that position.”

    More than 30 mortgage and property funds froze investment redemptions in October after a run on non-bank deposits was sparked by a federal Government move to guarantee bank deposits amid the financial turmoil.

    Property Investment Research associate director Dugald Higgins said it was unlikely those mortgage funds would unfreeze assets until investor sentiment in financial markets improved substantially, which was unlikely to occur until at least next year.]

    http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25076473-5013953,00.html

  8. you bluddy beauty

    I think costello has decided to finish off those (in his opinion) who thwarted his leadership ambitions.

    ie Effectively the remnants of Howards cabinet.

    [It will be totally different with Costello as leader, I guarantee it.]

    A shadow minister for hammocks?

  9. [As long as Turnbull remains in parliament, Wayne Swan will look smart.]
    I suspect Turnbull will go nowhere as well, leader or not. Looks like Swan is going to look good for sometime then.
    [It will be totally different with Costello as leader, I guarantee it.]
    I know YOU think Costello is the bees knees but can you provide any empirical evidence that suggests the rest of Australia thinks so as well? I won’t hold my breath waiting for the evidence to appear here.

  10. Antony theres nothing there that wasnt in the papers and as for the personal phone call major crime has it on their records, they came out and took a sworn report, i havnt given any details about the contents of the phone call to me because they were far more serious than what was in the papers, i get nutter groups try to use me at times,they all get a thanks but no thanks.

  13. [I know YOU think Costello is the bees knees but can you provide any empirical evidence that suggests the rest of Australia thinks so as well?]

    Milne and bolta are all the evidence one needs.Those bastions of virtue and truth would never lead us,the ‘umble public astray.
    Surely you know that gary
    🙂

  18. 59 Bree – Is that the best you can do? How do these figures show that the rest of Australia think Costello is the bees knees?
    Those figures show one thing only. Costello is favoured over Turnbull by only 37% of the population (accepting that the figures are right and I assume you do otherwise you wouldn’t be using them as evidence), which is nowhere near a majority of the voting population. In fact the “don’t knows” almost match Costello’s figures. If anything these figures highlight Costello’s lack of popularity.

  19. Judith, so you are saying it is absolutely on the record that libelous claims were made against people because certain police investigated a politican, or is that an accusation? And I don’t expect you to respond to that. I have no idea whether what you say is true or not, and neither will whoever mediates this blog. But in the past Crikey, its former owner Stephen Mayne, and even William himself as a blog publisher, have ended up with libel cases. Poor old William’s was entirely peripheral but still cost him money to defend. Which is why I think he should be cautious, and why anyone posting on this blog should be mindful of, what a can of worms cases like those in South Australia can become.

  21. [Gary my evidence is:

    Essential Research-preferred Liberal leader

    Costello 37%

    Turnbull 26%]

    And Turnbull’s numbers were better than Nelson. Fat lot of good that did. Try again.

  23. [Bree was the town where Frodo (or Mr Underhill) met Strider/Aragorn.]

    at the Prancing Pony IIRC. That would have been a much more appropriate nickname for Bree to have used I think 🙂

  25. Ah, I knew there was a Tolkien connection somewhere in the recesses of my memory. But I read the Narnia books long before I read Tolkien. The name Bree in “The Horse and His Boy” is actually short for Breehy-hinny-brinny-hoohy-hah.

  27. Sky news reports that the AI Group is saying the Govt doesn’t have a mandate to implement sweeping changes to the nation’s workplace laws.
    Well what the heck was “Your Rights at Work” all about then? Not to mention the election that followed. There are still YRAW signs at the top of power poles opposite our Federal (Lib) members house. She bitched about the union using electric company trucks to put them up so high at the time 🙂 and they’re still there!
    The only reason I can think of for this tactic from the AIG is to con X & Fielding into siding with the Coalition and voting the bill down in the senate. They have form (voted down the horse industry bill and the circus over the $42bil) X would do anything to get his face in the paper and Fielding just isn’t smart enough to know when he’s being used.
    [Addressing a parliamentary committee, the industry body says parts of the ‘Fair Work Bill’ need to be dumped or reworked.

    This is a big turnaround from November when AI had said that ‘on balance’ the legislation appeared to be ‘workable.’]
    http://www.skynews.com.au/business/article.aspx?id=304212

  29. [Sky news reports that the AI Group is saying the Govt doesn’t have a mandate to implement sweeping changes to the nation’s workplace laws.]

    AIG are full of it

  30. [Sky news reports that the AI Group is saying the Govt doesn’t have a mandate to implement sweeping changes to the nation’s workplace laws.]

    I wonder where they were when Howard was making sweeping changes to the nation’s workplace laws? He didn’t even take it to an election. Pffft.

  31. Antony, published in the papers and been through court, the pedophilia claims were made against the two investigating policemen who were entirely innocent as were the pollies, all four were cleared of wrongdoing, as for the phone call to me you may have noted i didnt give any details and it is on record at major crime, there is nothing in my blog that isnt on public record except the phone call, i’m well known to major crime and i waste no time contacting them if at times needed as with the phone call or the latest nutter contacting me though they are getting fewer and further between nowadays

  34. John Howard has given Shannahan a preview of his speech tonight in Melbourne. I’m not quite sure Howard realises the potential impacts that it could have.

    One is that he undermines Turnbull’s/Bishop’s/Hockey’s contention that the GFC is not the boogie man being portrayed by Rudd (and most economic commentators and Global media sources), and the other is Howard accuses Rudd of contradiction and promptly contradicts his own position.

    [But in the inaugural Howard lecture for the Menzies Research Centre in Melbourne tonight, Mr Howard will say Mr Rudd’s arguments are contradictory and implausible and ignore similar policies pursued by US Democratic presidents and British Labour prime ministers.

    Mr Howard says that if there has been a prevailing neo-liberal view in the past 30 years “that philosophy, to a greater or lesser extent, has beguiled both sides of the political divide in many countries”. ]

    [He argues that instead of being a failure, the systems of free trade and competitive capitalism have succeeded.]

    [“The strength of the Australian banking system, of which the Deputy Prime Minister is so proud, is a direct result of a sensible balance between market forces and prudential regulation in Australia which was both reaffirmed and modernised by the Wallis Financial Inquiry’s recommendations adopted by my government not long after it came to office,” he says.

    In the past 30 years “some regulation has failed and some have not been enforced”.

    “In some instances, governments have not intervened enough. In others, such as through Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae in relation to the spread of sub-prime mortgages, governments, their agencies and legislators have intervened too much.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25075647-5013871,00.html

  35. And I still think you made an unbacked accusation of intent in the earlier post, and if you’ve been through that process, I’m sure you’d understand why anyone involved in running this blog wants to get involved.

  38. Sorry, this is the quote which I meant to insert after my lead-in paragraph.

    John Howard has given Shannahan a preview of his speech tonight in Melbourne. I’m not quite sure Howard realises the potential impacts that it could have.

    One is that he undermines Turnbull’s/Bishop’s/Hockey’s contention that the GFC is not the boogie man being portrayed by Rudd (and most economic commentators and Global media sources), and the other is Howard accuses Rudd of contradiction and promptly contradicts his own position.

    [John Howard has given Shannahan a preview of his speech tonight in Melbourne. I’m not quite sure Howard realises the potential impacts that it could have.

    One is that he undermines Turnbull’s/Bishop’s/Hockey’s contention that the GFC is not the boogie man being portrayed by Rudd (and most economic commentators and Global media sources), and the other is Howard accuses Rudd of contradiction and promptly contradicts his own position.]

  42. JB, I’ve gone with Antony and snipped the concluding part of your original comment. The problem is that you ascribed a particular motivation for persons’ actions, which is obviously not “on public record”. I’d be more comfortable if we moved along now, thanks.

  44. Messed it up again. Quote here!

    [JOHN Howard has accused Kevin Rudd of “stretching the facts” of the global financial crisis in an unsustainable economic argument to score “a base political point”.

    In his first response to the Prime Minister’s extended attack on extreme capitalism, Wall Street greed, neo-liberals, free marketeers and the Howard years, Mr Howard says the global crisis is not the result of a neo-liberal failure. “Our current predicament is not the result of some malign economic philosophy having held total sway for the past 30 years,” the former Liberal prime minister says in a speech to be delivered in Melbourne tonight.

    “We all face a very difficult economic climate. There will be legitimate differences in our responses, based on different philosophies.]

  46. WB,AIC and AG
    last night discussion was held re the Monarchs actual powers.
    some confusion arose as to what they were and where they were applicable.

    Could one of the esteemed psephological troika please direct me to where i might get a definitive answer.
    pretty please.
    thank you

  49. Dario, rusted Libs will, they think Rudd conned the Australian people and that Howard was the better choice, and that Costello would have been electorally feasible as the next PM to take over from Howard in the current term of parliament.

    Ahh, Liberals. So deluded, so funny.

  50. This will be popular, especially coming from “people skills”

    There’s been a policy backflip by the federal Opposition – it no longer supports an increase to the single age pension.

    The Harmer pension review is expected to call for a $35 a week boost to the single age pension, claiming the current rate is too low.

    The Opposition previously called for a $30 increase to the pension, but Shadow Community Services Minister Tony Abbott says Australia would now struggle to afford the rise.

    http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2009/02/19/Opposition_backflips_on_pension_increase

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