Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 thoughts on “Newspoll: 58-42”

  1. Sorry, pressed submit by accident.I was going to say, regardless of the needs of the Murray, no goverment can allow itself to go on being blackmailed this way.

    Constitutional change is desperately needed and the Libs/Labor need to get together to secure appropriate changes are made.

  7. Who’s the goose who told Bob to go back to Tasmania.
    This makes the pronouncements of the coalition last night, regarding the supposed inability of Labor to get their program through the senate, look like stupid gloating. Gloating that is now over nothing.

  9. Wong: “Senator Brown and the Greens are demonstrating more economic responsibility than the Opposition.”

    (Back to sleep …)

  12. Labor, Xenophon, The Greens and Fielding are just taking turns patting each other on the back and making jibes about the Libs. This is why we need the Senate.

  13. This has ensured that the ALP will be voted in next time, however in the future in better times the debt think will come out again, people will have forgotten amd the coalition will be a chance, as they washed their hands clean and we’ll never know what effect a no would have had.

  14. I think that if it works Turnbull toast.

    If it doesn’t work(hard to assess), or work as well as people hope (easier to assess), Turnbull has now set himself up as vulnerable to take the blame. After all, the X amendments will add to debt at least in the short term. If the coalition had voted for the package the debt attached to it would be less and that is what they have been banging on about.

    They could have headed that off by voting for the package and making X irrelevant bu they didn’t. There will be other issues and ebbs and flows of politics over the next few months but i think the coalition brand is seriously damaged by this and Turnbull will take the blame.

  15. #2856
    News Radio’s Senate commentator said the House will sit “when the bells ring”, but he had no idea when that would be. Shortly after the vote is my guess.

  18. ROFL WTF is Minchin going to say.

    He’s going to say things, then add the refrain “not the way to deal with our problems” after everything he says.

  21. Basically Minchin’s argument is that the recession is going to be SO BAD that we won’t be able to pay back any debt.

    But if that is the case he should actually be arguing for a BIGGER stimulus package.

  27. A year from now, Labor should do some mail outs (NOT government advertising) listing all the school building projects all the Liberals and Nationals voted against.

  31. Isn’t there some irony with a SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SENATOR – Nick Minchin proudly announcing that the opposition parties won’t even support Xenophon’s amendments.

    Which are destined to pass! They should’ve done it at least as a token gesture, even if they voted against the package as a whole.

  33. Nick Minchin (back from the toilet):

    “Putting assembly halls in every Australian primary school is not the way to solve our economic problems … ”

    “This government is condemned to a situation where it may never deliver a surplus budget ….”

    ” … A re-elected Howard government would of course have responded to the Global Economic Downturn with a stimulus package … ”

    ” … There should be a proper bipartisan approach … ”

    ” … The Browns … ”

    “… I respect the integrity of the position Senator Xenophon brings to this debate … ”

    (I hereby nominate Senators Penny Wong and Nick Minchin for the award of Most Soporific Orator in Any Australian Parliament.)

  38. (I hereby nominate Senators Penny Wong and Nick Minchin for the award of Most Soporific Orator in Any Australian Parliament.)

    Yeah, even though Bob Brown always sounds completely confused, he shows a surprisingly level of insight.

  43. HAHAHA

    “What asset are you going to sell to raise money?”

    Idiot f*cking conservatives. Selling assets is not the only way to pay off government.

  46. ROFL

    Barnaby doesn’t know what asset the Govt will sell to pay back the deficit – yeah, cos Howard already sold them all!! As if that is the only way to retire debt, just because it’s Howard’s way.

  48. Conroy being an idiot as usual. Just threatened with expulsion.

    That would go over well with Rudd if Labor lost the vote because they didn’t have the numbers.

    Evans turns around and gives him a serve.

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