Morgan: 59.5-40.5

Morgan’s latest fortnightly face-to-face poll shows a one point narrowing in the two-party gap from 60-40 to 59.5-40.5. Labor is down one point on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent while the Coalition is up one to 36 per cent. Elsewhere:

• Not sure how much of this is news, but there’s a lot of good stuff on the Western Australian Electoral Commission site: veteran academic Harry Phillips’ 149-page Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview; Isla Macphail’s 388-page Highest Privilege
and Bounden Duty: A Study of Western Australian Parliamentary Elections 1829–1901
; and comprehensive survey data on various aspects of the September state election.

• AAP reports that Jennifer Huppert, a lawyer with the firm Maddocks and “long-time Labor moderate”, has been “unanimously endorsed” by Labor’s national executive to replace Evan Thornley in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan. A “senior Labor source” quoted in the report says “Ms Huppert was the Premier’s pick, chosen from four women candidates selected by Federal MP Michael Danby and state Treasurer John Lenders”. The Herald Sun earlier reported that “a list of six names – four women and two men – had been submitted to the Labor Party’s national executive”, with the Left-aligned Laura Smyth named as frontrunner.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that a looming split in the Right of the Victorian ALP could produce “another round of bloody winner-takes-all preselections replete with branch-stacking, brawls and backstabbing”. The next Victorian opinion poll will be interesting to observe, given the stresses the present heatwave has placed on Melbourne’s infrastructure.

• Malcolm Mackerras muses on the recent history of by-elections and upper house vacancies in the Canberra Times.

Annual financial disclosure returns for 2007-08 can be viewed at the Australian Electoral Commission site (UPDATE: … from Monday – thanks to Ruawake for pointing that out).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

614 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. Glens comparisons to the torys of Canada is interesting.

    Doesn’t the fact they HAD to come up with a time frame, how ever rubbery, because they are in minority and need the Grits to pass the budget to keep Harper politically alive? You have to take into account the current political machinations of Canada.

    No one knows how long it will last. The honest answer would be “Buggered if I know”

  2. Nathan Rees, Premier of NSW, just said on ABC news that he “Supports a publicly funded” model for donations but concedes the constitutional impediments.

    Considering William’s view that the constitution is quite wishy-washy and it would be up to the High Court, is the only way to test it to make the law, enforce it and then wait for someone to appeal?

  3. [Nathan Rees, Premier of NSW, just said on ABC news that he “Supports a publicly funded” model for donations but concedes the constitutional impediments.]

    Which is odd as WA already has “Public funding” where the parties and candidates are reimbursed if they get X amount of the vote.

  4. trueblue @546

    I wouldn’t describe donating 600K to a party of workplace vandals the work of a “humble” person, would you?

    And note, that’s 600K that could have gone towards organisations that actually care about looking after families and communities. Half a million bucks that was instead flushed down the toilet with a truck load of how-to-vote cards and Crosby-Textor spin merchandise … Good on you Josephine! Your OM is in the mail!

    I repeat, these are your people!

  5. Mr Edmund Stuart Groves

    2007/08

    LP: $50,000
    ALP: $0

    Poor Eddy wasn’t quite fast enough, it seems, despite his flash cash!

  6. Why would Mr E Groves donate $50,000 to the Qld Libs 9 days before the last election.

    Hey Eddie were skint – throw us a few bucks???

  7. I hunted on their website. It looks like the CFMEU (Vic) and the Greens have become very friendly about abolishing the ABCC, which probably accounts for the $40K. The CFMEU really hates the ABCC, it’s like a fight to the death (I, on the other hand, had to look up what the CFMEU actually stood for).

    [THE Frankston branch of the Australian Greens is showing Joe Loh’s new documentary, Constructing Fear, which looks at the creation and implementation of the Government’s Building Construction Industry Improvement Act]

    http://www.cfmeuvic.com.au/

  8. The ship was sinking and the rats – who he owed favours – were desperate. He sold his cowboy boots and some other personal effects on ebay for $250. I don’t know where he got the remaining $49,750 …

  9. “FAILED childcare chain ABC Learning paid one of its directors, former childcare minister Larry Anthony, more than $235,000 to lobby governments on its behalf.

    Mr Anthony, who still sits on the board of the collapsed childcare corporation, also pocketed up to $65,000 a year in director’s fees.

    His private company, Larry Anthony & Associates Pty Ltd, earned $125,000 in 2007 and $110,000 in 2006, according to ABC Learning’s annual reports.

    Mr Anthony, the architect of the Howard government’s free-market approach to childcare, said yesterday his consultancy work for ABC continued for “a couple of months” last year.

    “It was terminated in 2008,” Mr Anthony told The Australian.

    Asked why a company would need to pay a director consultancy fees for advice, he replied: “I was doing a lot of government relations work with them.” ”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24977685-5013871,00.html

    If I was in Mr Groves position I would have donated to my benefactors as well. 😉

  10. well, Malcolm didnt do himself any favours on 7 30 report, he just seemed to stutter and waffle on, Kerry showed him up with a few pointed words, for all Malcolm wants to be kingpin he’s not a very good politician, now he wants Rudd to take him into his confidence, what an ego, he wants to be a co PM, whoops Kerry finished up by hinting Malcolm may not be very safe, he said there was unrest in the lib ranks, Malcolm says they’re a very solid team working together and Kerry made a little remark {with his trademark little smile} that he’d look forward to see proof of that later on.

  11. This is ridiculous.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/02/2480428.htm

    [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and other MPs have come under fire in recent years for travelling overseas at the expense of Chinese businesses.

    That has not stopped two businessmen making significant donations to the ALP’s New South Wales branch.

    Gambling magnate Stanley Ho and one of his business associates have donated $300,000 in the last financial year.

    Ian Tang’s company AustChina donated $50,000 and Mr Ho’s wife Angela Leong donated $500,000.

    The ALP returned Ms Leong’s donation, saying in a statement that it did not meet due diligence.]

    So the ALP collects $350,000 from Chinese businessman and it’s considered a worthy story. The LNP gets $500,000+ and that gets no mention?

    I know this is stated many, many times on this blog, but the media is a joke.

  12. Finns 559

    Yes the 7.30 report was a hoot. Turnbull was really squirming. Kerry didn’t even have to go after him that hard – just point out the contradictions between his statements and his own shadow cabinet and ask him to explain. As Turnbull said in closing “It was a pleasure”.

    It struck me that Turnbull really doesn’t understand the underlying reality. Last year he was all doom and gloom before the bad news came out from China. Now a recession is imminent he is trying to say we won’t go into one, as if people might blame Labor if he says that. Its completely unconvincing – sounds like he’s just playing a game, which he is. He needs a coach badly.

  13. 559, 566, 568 – glad wasn’t the only one thinking “a new year, but nothing changes”. Bad start for MT, doesn’t bode well – his pathetic laugh at Rudd writing a “novel” on his holiday.

  14. Well, let’s hope the EB are now putting their hundreds of thousands towards more worthy causes, such as wrecking families and occult brainwashing!

    Um … that video was a cracker! Cyrius01 is a Green Plant …

  15. It’s going to be interesting what Newspoll reveals tomorrow, as I reckon Turnbull is looking more and more unable to control the political narrative, despite the MSM’s treatment of the Rudd gov’t.. Did anyone else notice the visuals on the ABC tonight in which Rudd was portrayed with slightly slowly psychomotor movements? O.K., it’s a given I’m trained to notice such things, but I asked himself indoors did he notice it, and he had. WTF? I notice Vera had made an earlier comment on the endless broadcasting of endless members of Her Maj’s Opposition on the Midday Report, so took a keen interest in this evenings reports. I think Bushfire Bill has got a handle on at least some of it, with his analysis, but there’s something more going on here. I’m not a paranoid person, or particularly prone to panic or conspiracy, so will look forward to more analysis from Ad Astra, who’s back on deck, and The Shrike (Piping).
    Turnbull was incompetent on the 7.30 Report. Absolute rubbish.

  16. [Did anyone else notice the visuals on the ABC tonight]

    And the 7:30 Report when talking about Rudd’s essay in The Monthly did a slow-mo of papaer from a document (not a magazine) being turned over like it was some shady leaked memo.

  17. I have a prediction for the Newspoll after this one – A shift to the Libs.

    I’m probably going to get savaged by you lot, but here’s why. The downward spiralling of the economy has accelerated. We know that it’s not our governments fault. Most Australians probably recognise that as well. But the repeated gloom and doom by economists and the media, as well as the references to “deficits” “recession”, which the public have been conditioned to jump out. Whether or not this is Rudd’s fault is irrelevant. The perception is all that counts. Thus far, the public opinion has stayed with Rudd. But there are going to be people who swing away purely because they’re scared of recession/deficit, have never experienced one but have heard all the stories about how evil Keating was and because they’ve been subjected to an intense fear-mongering campaign by virtually all sections of the mainstream media who have repeatedly linked Rudd to Keating and refused to even attempt to analyse the nonsense coming out of Turnbull and Bishop’s mouth. Also, as unemployment picks up there are going to be people who have lost their jobs and are going to take out their anger on the incumbent. Regardless of who caused the crisis.

    We read Peter Martin and Ross Gittins everyday, 99% of Australians don’t. I don’t think it’ll be an enormous shift but there will be a net movement to the Libs.

  18. Grog, that’s just some crap visual filler, and doesn’t concern me. What I found disturbing was the visual of Rudd, singled out, eyelids moving slowly, as the camera fixed on his face only, no other people or dynamic in frame to provide reference. As I said I’ve never seen this before. It’s a film technique for sure, but national reporting?

  19. Oz, if what I’ve noticed as a new technique of manipulation of public perception is right, and I sincerely hope others show me how I’m just crazy/deluded, you can entirely revise your estimate of public perception and future elections altogether.

  20. HSO – I have to make the comment altho I can’t stay logged in tonight.

    I also wondered what I was seeing when it looked as tho Kev was falling asleep on camera – if you are right that this a manipulation then we should all be screaming about it before it becomes prevalent.

    You know what the media mob are like – one does it, they all do it.

    It would be grossly unfair to everyone, not just Kev, if this becomes the norm.

  21. excruciating for the viewer or for Turnbull. Listening to the sound bytes I’m beginning to think Turnbull is labors best asset.

  22. Diogenes

    replying to your post today

    Evey World leader has condemned Obama & Democrat HOR discriminatory selfish protectionist Bill as econamicly wrong

    Every econamist in World I’ve searchd also has condemned Obama & Democrat HOR discriminatory selfish protectionist Bill as econamicly wrong

    Not surprising seeing th World Trade Oroganizaton WTO has been progressiveley impove fair trading for years wih ACTIVE support of most world Leaders includig all of Hawke , Keating Howard & Rudd , all in agreement and activ

    Obama & th Dems protectonist Bill will destroy th wto program completely & decrease world trade , increase world povery & unemployment and kill growth
    There is only ONE anti protectionist disenter in th World , USA’s Obama & Democrat HOR , and a few US economists whose americon ego is shamed by unified world attacks of protectionist selfhishness and econamic foolihness…reverse stimuli’s and transferable Debt nonsense but linked only to a ‘Debtor” (US broke Country) not to “Creditor” Countrys selectively in a downturn absolutely cr.ap econamics that Krugman will live to regret , seeing World economists think its nonsense apologistic USA ‘spin’

    Coinsidently , There is only ONE anti KyotoCC ratification supporter disenter in th World , USA’s Obama….youse rusted on obama-ites keep th company of World pariahs on protectionism and Kyoto ratificiaton , just th USA & Obama

    Instead of saying saying he’s unqualifiably wrong on both issues , obama rusted ons tink Obama must be perfect and th whole world wrong on both isues And you rust ons then critisise Turnbull claimin objeectivity

    Had you been objective , I would hav said find a few ‘left’ OR ‘right’ Australian econamic writers who agree with Obama/Dems HOR protectionist Bill….like Davidson , McCrann , Kohler , Gittins , Mengelopos..neither ‘left’ or ‘right’ economists agree with Obama here in oz or 95% in non US whole Worlds

    BUT chickens will come home to roost when EU (a biger GDP than US and not debt ridden like US) retaliates as it has threatened , let alone China who can kill US $ currency quite quickie , then US also will suffer badly from US’s foolish econamixcs

    Yes , lets allow Australia and ALL poor & less developd countrys be econamicly devastated by this discrimatory Obama/Dems protectionism such aussie spirit indeed , instead of critisisng th Obama protectionism without lame conditions
    Obama rustedons silense or some spamming here will not change this reality

    About time Obama was praided when right and crisised when wrong like non suppotrting Kyoto ratifcation & discrimatory protectionism

  23. I just felt uncomfortable watching it. It was not pleasant. That bit when he was caught out on the changing budget deficit was the moment his political career must have died, surely. O’Brien didn’t even make the point that clearly, but Turnbull did the job for him.

    I think there was a Nelson interview almost as bad but I’m not sure.

  24. Oz
    Posted Monday, February 2, 2009 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    “I’m probably going to get savaged by you lot”

    Really doesn’t matter one way or the other, my prediction somewhere in the range 58 to 60 two party preferred, just like any other week. And time will tell.

  25. trueblue
    Posted Monday, February 2, 2009 at 7:06 pm

    Read all about it ::–” Humble widow living in modest circumstances donates $600,000 to liberal election campain”

    Ya, for sure.

  26. Further to the earlier comments about current and recent media coverage, this is a good example of what bugs me so much about the one-sided style of coverage that now seems to be the norm.

    The common denominator is that they all seem to finish with an unanswered, negative, anti-Labor comment such as this on the ABC web site.

    [But Mr Turnbull says it is vital that the plan the Government adopts is workable.

    “The problem with the cash splash before Christmas is that all the evidence to date [suggests it] was an ineffective use of $9 billion,” he said.

    “That’s a lot of money – we will have a deficit this year certainly and that $9 billion that’s been spent will be a big contributor to that deficit.

    “The question is, with every element of Government policy, is this going to be effective to promote jobs to promote economic activity?”

    Mr Turnbull says the Government must have a strategy to get out of deficit.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/02/2480392.htm

  27. In post 497 Trueblue states “since when has Hong Kong been a race?”
    One of my nephew’s good mates at school (a boarding school) is from Hong Kong and spent a week over the Christmas Holidays at my Brothers place.
    My Brother ask the boy what the people of Hong Kong Called themselves, the boy replied
    mostly we call ourselves Chinese but some times we call ourselves Honkies

    My Moneys on Newspoll showing an improvement in Labors Primary and Two Party Preferred Support

  28. I was struck by how much Keating seemed to have aged on Lateline and how much more slowly he spoke. Nevertheless he still had some good lines, and his understanding of the problem was clear and sharp. I bet he’d still love to have a go at Turnbull.

  29. Just a quick comment about Paul Keating. It under him and Hawke that we got a deregulated financial system, privatisation, negative gearing, superannuation and a pathetic communications network. The Howard Government came along and extended such stupid market policies and now we have a mess.
    Superannuation going backwards, privatised companies doing as they as please, homeowners soon to experience great pain, and a financial system regulated due to some changes after the last recession but still throwing money left right and centre to people and putting them in massive debt of which many will never get out of. Fed up with listening to Keating, he rarely says he made mistakes and sorry but his governments policies have caused some of the probs which linger in our economy today. Howard and Costello only worsened such probs.
    Government ownership and regulation are the only things which will get us out of the mess.

  30. marky marky

    I agree that Keating could never admit he was wrong, but I thought he was right on this one. He did create all those systems but he didn’t cause our current mess. My house valuation hardly changed from 1994 through to about 2001. There was really no bubble in Australian property markets till after 2000, when Howard and Costello made some crucial changes to capital gains and negative gearing deductions that led to a bonanza of investment home buying and corresponding borrowing. I expressed concerns about this to several people in 2004 but got ignored then. The changes to mobile super and self regulation were also due to Costello and Clerp 9 reforms. I’m not suggesting Howard and Costello caused the world credit binge, world assett price bubble (or our mining income boom either) or GFC but you can’t blame any of that on Keating.

  31. Turnbull on 7.30 Report was pathetic. He was made mince meat of by Kerry. But what he highlighted however was the sorry state of politics in this country at present.
    People who say one thing and then change their mind the next, people in cabinet who have differing views with leaders and parties which have no idea what they believe in.
    Gillard goes to Davos meeting and spruiks economic lassez faire policies whilst Rudd says the opposite in Oz only to have said something different five months earlier.
    Why do these people go into politics and what ideological believes do they have?

  32. marky marky, it’s a different World today then it was 6 months ago and getting worse. I feel sorry for people aged between 30 and 55 and still working.
    Things are changing everyday. Things were a lot worse 3 months ago than what we thought 6 months ago and now it’s worse than it was 3 months ago.

  33. MARKY MARKY

    “Gillard goes to Davos meeting and spruiks economic lassez faire policies”

    like what ??? , fairer trade rules so our farmers and exporters get a fair deel Its US & past protectionism she’s fiting fo , plus prevent current Obama protectonist fiasco
    AND she pushed better world finacial regulation within a reel globlisation world that we can not change , she’s pushed to stop repeat of wall st barons

    julia is doing fine

  34. Keatings’ policies have helped to put money into peoples’ hands to go out on a free for all.
    Negative gearing that policy is now such a drain on the governments’ purse strings and in the next year we will see how people who are negative geared go, will high rents continue? How many homeless will result? When people start losing their jobs and are unable to pay their rents?
    Yes the Howard Government introduced capital gains taxes concessions on housing which made it worse but negative gearing is the main problem restricting first home owners…
    Superannuation has put money into financial guru’s hands to invest in shoddy investments and sharemarket and now look it is going backwards and fast. Many people have lost their life savings, some have little to show and many are now taking the pension.
    More money into the system and more debt.
    Privatisation and yep how many of the privatised companies now employ more people than they did in the 1990’s? More unemployment to come from these companies seek greater profits and shareholder dividends.
    A deregulated financial system now allows banks to charge us fees on services, reduce rates when the feel like it, reduce staff, and throw money like confetti to people, yep how many phone calls do you get to borrow against your equity? I get it all the time..
    And how many credit cards are now available. Sorry his and next government have fueled this mess. In 1983 their was hardly any foreign debt in Australia, from the moment we deregulated the financial system it balloned and now is approaching 700 billion.

  35. “from the moment we deregulated the financial system it balloned and now is
    approaching 700 billion.”

    no connextion at all between those 2

    credit cards came in in 1975

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