Morgan’s latest fortnightly face-to-face poll shows a one point narrowing in the two-party gap from 60-40 to 59.5-40.5. Labor is down one point on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent while the Coalition is up one to 36 per cent. Elsewhere:
• Not sure how much of this is news, but there’s a lot of good stuff on the Western Australian Electoral Commission site: veteran academic Harry Phillips’ 149-page Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview; Isla Macphail’s 388-page Highest Privilege
and Bounden Duty: A Study of Western Australian Parliamentary Elections 1829–1901; and comprehensive survey data on various aspects of the September state election.
• AAP reports that Jennifer Huppert, a lawyer with the firm Maddocks and “long-time Labor moderate”, has been “unanimously endorsed” by Labor’s national executive to replace Evan Thornley in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan. A “senior Labor source” quoted in the report says “Ms Huppert was the Premier’s pick, chosen from four women candidates selected by Federal MP Michael Danby and state Treasurer John Lenders”. The Herald Sun earlier reported that “a list of six names – four women and two men – had been submitted to the Labor Party’s national executive”, with the Left-aligned Laura Smyth named as frontrunner.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that a looming split in the Right of the Victorian ALP could produce “another round of bloody winner-takes-all preselections replete with branch-stacking, brawls and backstabbing”. The next Victorian opinion poll will be interesting to observe, given the stresses the present heatwave has placed on Melbourne’s infrastructure.
• Malcolm Mackerras muses on the recent history of by-elections and upper house vacancies in the Canberra Times.
• Annual financial disclosure returns for 2007-08 can be viewed at the Australian Electoral Commission site (UPDATE: … from Monday – thanks to Ruawake for pointing that out).
Shows On 493
“This is not surprising considering that Labor holds all but one state, territory, and national government. The party that holds government always tends to get more donations, because they are in a position to change policies.”
How do you account for this comment since it was a Federal election with an incumbent Coalition Govt.
By the way if you look at related party spend the ALP moves to 120mil vs 55mil . Don’t you hate when big money perverts the domocratic process??
[But when Swan has to say we’re in Recession and Rudd and Co have spent everything but the kitchen sink to avoid it…not many will be happy with his way of tackling the GFC…]
Ah, that crystal ball again. That is a hope Glen not a fact.
Glen
The recession per se will not harm the Rudd Govt. most sane people know it has nothing to do with him.
What may harm the Govt. is their reaction to the recession, if Turnbull can win the argument that the Govt has done the wrong things, wasted money, caused unemployment, then it may bite.
All the indicators so far say Rudd is doing a good job and Turnbull is not. 😉
What has he done to protect jobs???
Fair Work Australia?? HAH that has cost jobs…Rudd has done nothing but try to spend his way out of a likely recession…what a genius of a plan!
Rudd has to spill the beans and tell us how much we’re in deficit and when the budget will return to surplus based on forecasts and how much debt he expects we will incurr the last thing i want is Rudd and Swan putting us 96b dollars in debt and having no way out leaving us with a structural deficit!
So trueblue, you’re against party donations then.
By the way you obviously have proof that the Hong Kong connection is corrupt. Can you provide it here?
Whether the coming recession “takes the shine” off the Rudd government or not depends on two things: whom the voters decide to blame for the recession, and whether they think the Rudd government’s policy response to it is correct. On the first point, the voters clearly do not blame Rudd – everyone can see that this crisis started in the US, and results from policy failures by the Bush administration and the Republican Congress. On the second point, on the evidence of opinion polls, so far the voters seem to think Rudd’s efforts to head off and/or mitigate the recession are the right ones. They are after all the same policies which are being followed by every other government in the world, and the policies recommended by most economists. The voters may of course change their minds over the next 20 months, but if the Liberal Party thinks it can coast back to office by saying nothing and waiting the voters to start blaming Rudd for the recession, it is likely to be disappointed.
[Rudd has done nothing but try to spend his way out of a likely recession…what a genius of a plan!]
Oh, so he shouldn’t spend and help save jobs? He should just hoard the cash and boast a surplus. Strangely Glen you’d be one of the few people now saying that. Even your leader has changed his tune on that.
[Rudd has to spill the beans and tell us how much we’re in deficit]
Done. No good in guess when the GFC will be over Glen.
Glen
Surely it is the role of Govt to spend during a recession?
Well said Adam (506). I agree.
[How do you account for this comment since it was a Federal election with an incumbent Coalition Govt.]
A federal election that nearly everyone thought Labor would win from about March 2007 onwards. So it isn’t surprising that Labor got more of the donations.
Plus, the disclosure period was July 1st 2007 to June 30th 2008. Labor was in Federal government slightly longer over that period.
[By the way if you look at related party spend the ALP moves to 120mil vs 55mil . Don’t you hate when big money perverts the domocratic process??]
No, this just demonstrates how philosophically, intellectually, and financially bankrupt the Liberal party actually is. Remember, it was the Liberals that raised the disclosure threshold to $10,000, whereas the current government wants it to be $1000, and wants disclosure every 6 months.
http://www.smos.gov.au/transcripts/2008/tr_20080328_electoral_reform.html
It will be the Liberals that will oppose such legislation, because they hate any reform to make the electoral system more transparent.
The Liberal Party can only score points if they show what Rudd has done hasnt helped the situation and explain clearly what they’d have done better and would do if they won…but Gary he’s spent everything we’re in deficit and most likely in recession at some point you’ve got to stop…the whole point about going into deficit is to get out of it and Swan wont tell us how or when the ALP will get us out…on your last point that is a poor response the Tory Govt in Canada has done what Rudd and Co wont…they’re cowards because they fear revealing the extent to which we’re in the poo so to speak.
Adam if it is any consolation i think the ALP will win in 2010 but it is whether our side goes backwards or forwards…
Glen the Lib scare tactics about ALP and recessions and deficits may have worked in Keatings day but now most people have internet access so we can see what’s happening in the rest of the world for ourselves. It can’t be pretended that it’s an Australian financial Crisis and not Global. We are able to see that it is world wide and that OS countries are much worse off than us. We don’t need to rely on consevative leaning TV and newspapers anymore and their version of current affairs. People can’t be spooked so easy nowadays thank goodness.
Gary Bruce 505
“So trueblue, you’re against party donations then.
By the way you obviously have proof that the Hong Kong connection is corrupt. Can you provide it here? ”
As it happens the current political donation seriously disadvantages the Libs. Most public companies that donate a declarable amount donate the equivilant to the ALP. Then the Union movement , either via direct donation or related party activity top the ALP up , in the case of the 2007 election to over double . I hope Faulkiner introduces his reforms ASAP .
Goodness me the comrades are sensitive . My comment was hardly an accusation of corruption , more a lighthearted suggestion that people who own casinos have not traditionally been conidered pillars of virtue.
trueblue
[How do you account for this comment since it was a Federal election with an incumbent Coalition Govt.]
No-one wanted to be seen to be giving money to a loser. The smart money went to curry favour with the overwhelming favourite.
Glen
[Plus we should actually have some policies out this year too.]
Oooh goody! That would be a nice change, wouldn’t it! Imagine that, a political party with a policy!
[The Liberal Party can only score points if they show what Rudd has done hasnt helped the situation and explain clearly what they’d have done better …]
Exactly and so far the only thing they have to say is Tax Cuts.
trueblue @ 470
“I think that it speaks volumes that the Largest donor to the Liberal Party (600k) was a widow from Kwinana who while not even a member wanted to help re-elect John Howard.”
Gee, I hope she signed up for a pre paid funeral – she won’t get anything back for that little investment.
Steve K she made 30 million dollars selling large blocks of property she owned in WA i dont think she would care about losing 600,000 bones…
[the whole point about going into deficit is to get out of it and Swan wont tell us how or when the ALP will get us out]
Glen, we simply don’t have a huge economy, all we can do is protect enough jobs as possible in the short and medium term, and hope that China, Japan, and U.S. come out of recession as soon as possible.
There is no way we can avoid recession if the rest of the developed world is in recession too.
Turnbull knows this, he just can’t admit it for political reasons.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24992901-7583,00.html
Milne seems surprised and shocked about the fact that the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Education & Employment & Industrial Relations, the Treasure and the Minister for Finance are, in his words, “effectively running the country.”
He digs up a bit of the old “Julia is going to dethrone Rudd” conservative rubbish as well.
Oh, and to cap it all off:
“Right now the gang of four, fused into one by the heat of global conflagration, is Labor’s best hope of winning the next election.
Malcolm Turnbull would be advised to recognise that fact and try to do something about it.”
Is it just me or does that look like it’s written from the perspective of Turnbull being in commanding position and Labor way on the back foot.
ShowsOn just because a recession is not avoidable doesnt mean Rudd should never tell the Australian people how or when he’ll get the budget into surplus and how or when the debt will be paid off based on forecasts? They are afraid of bad publicity…
[Fair Work Australia?? HAH that has cost jobs]
WorkChoices did away with Unfair Dismissal protection for millions of employees. Meaning they could be sacked without rhyme or reason. It also removed the onus from employers to pay redundancy compensation. It effectively removed every obstacle from employees making mass lay-offs.
Which is all well and good when unemployment is low and the economy is booming (thanks China). A disaster during a downturn, as we narrowly avoided learning.
Shows On 510
“No, this just demonstrates how philosophically, intellectually, and financially bankrupt the Liberal party actually is.”
I love the hypocracy of the left . So when the Libs raise more money than the ALP will that mean that we are “philosophically , intellectually and financially superior??
By the way, we know where trueblue is getting their talking points from:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24995518-601,00.html
“NSW Labor has drawn some of the biggest political donations in the country from Chinese gambling tycoon Stanley Ho and other Hong Kong-based individuals and companies.
The Australian Electoral Commission’s annual returns reveal Mr Ho, who held a casino monopoly in Macau for decades, contributed $200,000 to NSW Labor coffers in 2007-08.”
But what do we find way down the bottom?
“Other beneficiaries of Hong Kong Kingson Investment’s largesse included the ALP’s Queensland branch ($20,000), the Liberal Party ($230,000) and Nationals ($250,000).”
So the “gangsters” give twice as much to the conservatives as to Labor, but the headline is “Tycoon Stanley Ho among large NSW Labor donors”.
Idiotic news report for the day.
The ABC reports on house prices. “There were falls across all capital cities – except Adelaide, Canberra and Darwin”.
See that Labor derives a goodly amount of income from its landholdings and businesses. Who said Labor doesnt’ have business-sense?
That’s right, Liberals, the lawyers’ party.
[So when the Libs raise more money than the ALP will that mean that we are “philosophically , intellectually and financially superior??]
It’s not about who raised the lesser amount of money, but the Liberal’s attitude towards disclosures – to make them less transparent.
[So when the Libs raise more money than the ALP will that mean that we are “philosophically , intellectually and financially superior??]
No, it just means we have to wait 15 years to see.
Glen @ 517
So the 300K donation didn’t leave her skint? I’m so happy for her.
[My comment was hardly an accusation of corruption , more a lighthearted suggestion that people who own casinos have not traditionally been conidered pillars of virtue.]
LOL.
OZ @ 523
“It’s not about who raised the lesser amount of money, but the Liberal’s attitude towards disclosures – to make them less transparent.”
You would be suprised how many of the Liberal party donors are individuals,often pensioners, who donate amounts of around $100.We have nothing to fear from disclosure laws.
[ShowsOn just because a recession is not avoidable doesnt mean Rudd should never tell the Australian people how or when he’ll get the budget into surplus and how or when the debt will be paid off based on forecasts? They are afraid of bad publicity…]
The budget will return to surplus when tax revenue starts growing again, this will occur when the economy starts to grow. This will occur when the world economy (and in particular China and Japan) are growing strongly again.
[I love the hypocracy of the left . So when the Libs raise more money than the ALP will that mean that we are “philosophically , intellectually and financially superior??]
Whatever you reckon.
Adam 506
I think that is a good summary. I think the Rudd government’s current course is correct (as best anyone can kow) and that should stand them in good stead. I think the greatest political risk in future from the recession is external i.e. with the United States. If Obama goes protectionist it would harm Australia’s interests and presumably strain relations with them. Yet I would have thought that Rudd would wish to stay/become close to the US, both ideologically and in terms of Australia’s foreign policy stance. It would also be desirable to work together on CC policies. But if the US strikes an opposing stance Rudd could find himself in an awkward position, especially since he likes to take such a high personal profile on the foreign policy issues.
Oh Dear, Barry O’Farrell has been exposed as a hypocrite re his call on a ban on Overseas Political Donations.
[NSW Greens MP Lee Rhiannon said the Federal Liberals previously blocked a ban on overseas donations.
“Barry O’Farrell’s call for a ban on overseas donations ignores the fact that it was his party that last year voted to block this reform initiative in the Senate,” she said.
“This shows that the NSW Liberal Party is happy to say anything it feels fits the public mood, despite contrary policy positions within its own party.”]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24997484-5005361,00.html
[You would be suprised how many of the Liberal party donors are individuals,often pensioners, who donate amounts of around $100.We have nothing to fear from disclosure laws.]
Nonsense. Why did the previous government increase disclosures to $10,000?
Hey trueblue, got no reply about the Liberal and National parties being funded by “gangsters”?
[We {Liberals} have nothing to fear from disclosure laws]
Yet when in government Howard raised the threshold above which donations must be publicly listed to an absurd $10,000 (I believe the figure was).
trueblue @529
Is Josephine Armstrong a pensioner? Ignoring all of the worthy causes in her state – such as homeless shelters, disability support services, drought relief and other community-based charities – this woman pumps $600,000 into Howard’s doomed re-election effort. And what was it all spent on? Corflute? Attack ads?
If Howard was re-elected, what are the chances Mrs Armstrong would have earnt herself a nice little OM or some such …
These are your people!
William
Thanks for the link to the AEC site; heaps of fun for all 🙂
Oz 523
Not only is it a stupid complaint, but they have missed another story. As the SMH pointed out after the last NSW election, 4 of the ten biggest donators to NSW Labor were property developers. Given the many scandals in Sydney planning approvals this is a real story, but it was missed by the Oz.
[We have nothing to fear from disclosure laws.]
Would that be because the way the Liberal finances are going they will soon have nothing to disclose?
British American Tobacco
Liberal Party $120,000
National Party $5,000
Labor Party $0
Greens $0
You know that an organisation has no scruples when they take money from BAT and Philip Morris.
Am I really the only one surprised that large, prominent blue collar unions in sectors like construction and manufacturing are ditching Labor for The Greens? Or is this old news? I had heard of the ETU giving vocal support, but nothing about the CFMEU or the AMWU.
I think this already has pretty severe implications for left-wing politics in Australia, and even more so if the trend continues.
Oz better watch out , next election all the scary union thug adds will be directed at you greens 🙂
Vera, if history repeats itself that means The Greens will win government =P
[Am I really the only one surprised that large, prominent blue collar unions in sectors like construction and manufacturing are ditching Labor for The Greens? Or is this old news? I had heard of the ETU giving vocal support, but nothing about the CFMEU or the AMWU.]
Well the CFMEU in WA dumped Labor due to Brian Burke and the fact that Shelley Archer (Wife of CMFEU Boss Kevin Reynolds) refused to sever her links to Burke.
Oz Bob Brown PM! I’d like to see that 😉
Innner Westie@537
“Is Josephine Armstrong a pensioner? Ignoring all of the worthy causes in her state – such as homeless shelters, disability support services, drought relief and other community-based charities – this woman pumps $600,000 into Howard’s doomed re-election effort. And what was it all spent on? Corflute? Attack ads?
If Howard was re-elected, what are the chances Mrs Armstrong would have earnt herself a nice little OM or some such …”
My understanding is Mrs Armstrong contacted the Liberal party and asked nothing in reurn , simply that she wanted to help John Howards re-election effort. As for Mrs Armstrongs donations to other charities I have no idea and nor do you. The West hunted around to find some dirt on the woman and came up with a humble widow living in modest circumstances whose biggest thrill was her up coming move into a 2 storey house.It might be wise not to judge everybody by ALP standards.
Oz
The Victorian branch of the CFMEU slipped the Greens a lazy $40 grand, the question is why?
Have the Greens been bought by the C-Foresty-MEU? 😉
[Well the CFMEU in WA dumped Labor due to Brian Burke and the fact that Shelley Archer (Wife of CMFEU Boss Kevin Reynolds) refused to sever her links to Burke.]
Interesting, thanks for the info.
This was the CFMEU Victorian division, however.
Anyone know how unions decide how much too donate and too whom? Is it purely at the discretion of the executive? Does this mean that there are Greens part of, or leading, the executives of the AMWU and the ETU?
[The Victorian branch of the CFMEU slipped the Greens a lazy $40 grand, the question is why?]
I’m trying to figure that out as well.
If Mrs Armstrong had donated to the Labor party she would be branded as a “property developer”.