The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.
UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.
Elsewhere:
• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).
• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.
• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.
• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.
• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.
Gusface, we coined Obama’s oiliness because he came from Chicago and a true Chicago type politician. The oiliness was referring to that classic advertise for a certain lubricant oil where a gangster character was uttering the classic line “Oil ain’t oil”. It has nothing to do with his colour or race. Best of luck to the IT industry.
Malcolm Turnbull is a republican, hence, the Australian people will reject him in 2010 for that stance, because Australians want to remain a constitutional monarchy.
funny that, Rudd wants a republic and intends us to have one and yet his popularity stays at unprecedented levels, either way we’ll end up with a republic.
No way! Anyone that wants a republic should move out of the country. IF IT AIN’T BROKE, DON’T FIX IT!
Bree, I thought that was the only reason the Liberals chose Turnbull as Leader. So the Liberals could lead us into a republic. You knew that when you chose him as leader though Bree, didn’t you?
Hello diog
Every time i just log in you giv me a new line , today it was quote “I was wRONg.” , thats about 6 unique your ones I’ve copied now , and all just “diog-ronian”
Anyways on serous notes , thanks diog for your earlier blog about race , and also to my friend Vera th magnificents , for also doing so
And diog on Mick dodson where i suggested with youse last nite why I thought Mick dodson said he was initially “anxious” about th Award , like with Mansell nutters accusing him of white collabaration (and our nutter Mansell has done this before publicly to both Micj and Pat dodson ) , we today hav a headline that Mick also wuld hav been “anxous” may come out NO MATTER what he said :
“Mick Dodson wants Australia Day date changed”
A disgraseful misquote wording of what he meant and said , here’s a aboriginal australian obviously embracing 26th Jan as date when oz as we know know it today started from , and so celebrating what we ar now as an oz including apologys & reconciliaton process’s started to move forwards , (and he IS biggger than th Mansell’s who don’t understand this is what Australia day is) , and Mick dodson understands that very well …THATS why he accepted award with pride , now of couse there IS undarlying Aboriginol feeling about th 26th Jan we all sensibly understand , which th Mick dodsons ar trying to articulate to his peoples why it CAN be celebrated…but thats a dificult long process , cause th first 150 years variousley not good for aboriginols due to th 26th Jan (white settlement) starting also that bad side for Aboriginals process also
So there’s THREE very opposite competing mesages to aboriginees AND to many ‘left’ Australians We hav th Mansell nutters repreesentin th most extreme anti 26th Jan view for Aborinigees …all that is bad and keep hatreds forever , and maintain sense forever of antipathy resentments That Mansell view undrmines aboriginals desire to ‘reconcile”Its a message to nowhere Then secondley there is th ‘some left’ Australian anti 26th Jan slitely diferent , where I disagree with and oh most here may wsh to string me to a stake for heresy This ‘some left’ view is we invaded , we did bad things , we caused great hurts (and whilst thats all true) and what ? change th Day , but that won’t change what actualy happened , that wont change that was day whites first set foot here , that is revers howardism denying what was , histary his view not only denies history of factualy what happened but seeks to make our 26th Jan celebraton a US celebrating we invade and us also celebrating we did past harm to Aboriginols But that is not th 26th , Australia Day is celebrating
i believe th 26th Jan is worth celebrating but my way is not easy road & a road where one liners can be easily thrown as an ‘thoughtful argument’ … but it is a road ahead to a positive 26th Jan future despite majority view here maybes disagreeing with me , actualy feel perhaps so is Mick Dodson thinking somewhere on my road as well ……seeing FACTUALY Mick dodson DIDS accept Austrlian of Year fo what day ? yes THAT th 26th Jan Day , and it is reflekting yea we understand that there was settlement from overseas peoples & it hurts and its often hurt since , but look at what from th 26th Jan 1788 that has now produced , that was th day it started from so lets not forget that and now what , an oz a wonderful country for us all , & with via applogy & reconciliaton etc we can look forward so in that sense its worth celebrating , and we Australians including Aboriginal Australians should be doing so
Its a fine line this 26th Jan bit between th three competings , and it needs leadership from Leaders from both Parliamentary and Aboriginl areas to smooth this forward
IF as I suspect in long time , an attempt is made to change to 1st jan , what do you tink th Mansell nutters ar gonna say….white man trying to insult us now worse by changin dates , a slite of hand ….so now instead of 26th Jan when we came its now 1st Jan when those white men formalised there take over of our lands So ist Jan may satisfy a tech point of celobrating ‘Australia Day’ on actual day we became ‘Australia’ , a sovereign country…but reely does not solve th Mansell charge AND in fact it may actualy inflame antithathy feelings of white formalisation control by us Aboriginees by whites declaring themselves a new ‘Country’ called Australia (therebys dispossesing th former “Country”) So ist Jan may create m,ore problams than it solves
I personaly favor celebrating both , for what actualy happened on both days , and with ist Jan given more dominanse…not sure howebver how a double public hiolidays works like if same as double penalty time…like we get 2nd Jan off as a holiday as well or not
And so to that false headline , when dodson actualy said we should hv ‘a conversation about that’ , now he said no more , just a conversation about it but MSN falsely assumes what he meantt or what he’d hav a conversaton aqbout and such scandl reporting inflames negatively on th 26th Mansell’s wuld just love that rotten headline Perhaps Pat dodson may even been thinking that 26th could include th appology type day ceremony done every 26th Jan …like where th Aborigin elder in parliament house gav th leaves and all and perhaps do that equivalent as posible every 26th jan , an anyway Mick Dodson’s actual thoughts on a conversation yet to be held and with whoever ar factually unknown , even to that Reporter
So i celebrate 26th today our Australia Day , of th date that commenced where we actualy ar today a wonderful country , although more is to be done and reckon th very worthy on merit Austalin Aboriginal leader Mick Dodson I feel thinks somewhere in my orbits areas And as for lookin backwards as a footy coach sort of said….better to look forward and remeber th past lessons …and those that permanently keep looking in rear view mirrors crash…
Also, I can’t believe there are crazy people in this country who want to change our flag. The Australian flag will never change because our flag shows our heritage.
There is no need to celebrate Australia Day on January 26. We should take the lead from the monarchists and move it to a more convenient date, such as has been done with the “Queens birthday” holiday which is mostly celebrated on a monday in mid june, well away from the Queens real birthday. I suggest the last Monday in January so that it can fulfill its role as the symbol of the end of the holiday season and the return to a year of serious work.
Mid June long weekend will soon be Republic day.
Bree, so anyone who has different view or opinion from you are either have to leave the country or crazy. You will go well with the religious fundamentalists.
When the time comes that the Australian people voted to be a Republic, you should leave the country.
There will be no republic day, because we will not become a republic.
I’m going to do everything I can to block the republicans.
Any Australian flag alledged to “show our heritage” that has no reference to the Aboriginals and TS islanders, has no trace of green or gold, no trace of our unique flora, etc etc is just cover for mindless conservatism.
I know “mindless conservatism” is an egregious tautology!
I have met plenty of Aborigines that say the Australian should stay the way it is.
CORRECTION:I have met plenty of Aborigines that say the Australian flag should stay the way it is.
Bree, I encourage a broad range of views on this site, but you’re testing the limits with your assertions that the 50 per cent of Australians who support a republic and the 32 per cent who want a new flag are “crazy people” who should “leave the country”.
On the other hand, it seems from the latter link that 77 per cent want one of the worst songs ever written to remain as our national anthem against 6 per cent who would prefer one of the best, so in some ways your views are similar to my own. Mark Steyn gets it.
[I’m going to do everything I can to block the republicans.]
yes, you just do that. Just lay your body down in front of the history train. Then you dont have to leave the country, it will crush you to death.
William @ 715
That umr research survey doesn’t seem very accurate to me. It looks like the only people surveyed were republicans.
[That umr research survey doesn’t seem very accurate to me. It looks like the only people surveyed were republicans.]
And the only people who voted at the last election were Labor supporters.
And I’ve quoted Colbert before;
“Reality has a well-known liberal bias.”
Newspoll’s surveys this decade have had it between 45 per cent and 52 per cent, while Morgan’s have had it between 45 per cent and 51 per cent. Every poll has had support well ahead of opposition.
[It looks like the only people surveyed were republicans.]
You mean 50%, of course.
I’d prefer to hear ‘I Am Australian’ (I think that’s the name?) as the anthem. The one that goes “We are one, but we are many; and from all the lands on earth we come”. It’s better, and doesn’t have the word ‘girt’ in it.
As for that republic, that’s the main reason I hope Turnbull will last longer than I think he will.
If Australia is to become a Republic in the next 5 or so years then I don’t think who the leader of the Liberal Party is will make any difference.
I like that ‘I am Australian’ song too
Thinking about it though, the “We are one, but we are many; and from all the lands on earth we come” has similar sentiments to Advance Aust Fair’s
[For those who’ve come across the seas
We’ve boundless plains to share;
With courage let us all combine
To advance Australia fair.]
I’m happy enough with Advance Australia Fair
Its interesting how Conservatives like to think Australia is a “young” country (which it isn’t) and then that we should cling to historic links because history is terribly important (but just ignore history that they don’t like) and that we should never change the flag (which we have changed several times) nor change the national anthem (why not keep God Save the Queen) nor become a really independent Commonwealth of Australia by having our own head of State and on and on. There is nothing wrong with serious debate about national symbols – any group that doesn’t like such debate is just frightened of a serious look at our history and our current society and lacks confidence in the institutions they prefer.
Becoming a republic will not cost us thousands, it will not cost us millions but it will cost us billions, yes BILLIONS of dollars.
It may even run into the zillions.
A republic will definately turn Australia into a Zimbabwe.
WB
anyway good to see that you have all encompassing views (when they suit)
ps If you get a chance go to the KKK site and surprise surprise, you will find an exact copy of the quote I took exception too
It would be the end of civilization as we know it.
GG
#688
Thanks for your race comments GG (and to Vera) , however GG somehow before when posting I incorectly thankd diog instead of correctly you Now I could say we had a barbie and we did , and a mistake was made , me put in charge of meat , then coverts add some wine…. for ‘taste’ but not explain how diog name snuck in there And as for you diog….. a recipient of a completely undeserved thanks , damn well cann’t take it back now , so will treat that as a ‘credit’ I hav…. for a free ‘hit’
the “i am”
song was written by the Seekers, i love it, as for the flag a mixture of the Eureka flag and the indiginous flag would be good, we wont get a new flag or anthem until we’re a republic anyway.
the best songs were written by the seekers and John Farnham, working class man by Jimmy Barnes is a sort of great blue collar anthem, i was friends with Dot, Jim’s mum years ago and i knew Jimmy and his half brother John Swan when they were young and practicing in the garage, nobody could have told then how far they’d go, John was the more laid back one and he was more interesed in fishing than music.
Bree
Posted Monday, January 26, 2009 at 5:30 pm | Permalink
“Becoming a republic will not cost us thousands, it will not cost us millions but it will cost us billions, yes BILLIONS of dollars.”
Its a flick of a pen on a doc , don’t know where you get your pens from but th $2 shop hav them ….for yep $2
I actualy wrote a ditty for th Gough competiton , but poorly educatd peoples obviously couldn’t read my reel lyrics It sort of went along th “I’m am one” theme but diferents …but introduced aboriginols as first as ‘only’ Australians , then whites and Aboriginols as th ‘only’ Australians , then other lands peoples come recognised blah blah , then multicultural , and was not ‘one’ through it but instead started and went all thru as th ‘only Australin’ , so by end we were all th “only” Australian
Ron
Yeah, I wondered what I was being thanked for. FWIW I know better than anyone that your dislike of Obama has nothing to do with race, it’s that disturbing infatuation you have with Bill Clinton’s wife. 😉
Listen to the voice of the young. My son (20s) said that Australia Day should be the day when Australia as a Republic is proclaimed. That’s our Independence Day. hear, hear.
Making Australia a republic will Americanise our country. If you want to live in a republic, bugger off to America.
[Making Australia a republic will Americanise our country. If you want to live in a republic, bugger off to America.]
Didn’t JWH already proclaim Australia the 51st State of the USA ? 🙂
I doubt we will become a republic while Her Maj Liz is alive, given her mum’s longevity it could be a while.
All it will take is a Royal Scandal with Charles then its all over for the Monarchists.
Does the flag really matter? It has great importance for some and they wil take offence if it is changed – so why bother?
ruawake, i think our own flag matters, i have the current Australian flag folded in my cupboard, it covered my John’s body when i became a war widow, i will never part with it nor will my children, John was a career soldier and fought under it in all conflicts from Korea to Vietman, but there comes a time when we need to say who we are as a nation, we cant and must never forget our roots, but with migration our roots are so very different now, walk down any street and you’ll see Vietnamese shops, Greek, Italian, Egyptian,Chinese, Indian and so on, what have these Australians got in common with the English flag? i’m Irish heritage third generation Australian, one of my great grandies is half Asian, we no longer owe allegience to mother England, we are adults in our own right, when we become a republic we need our own new flag and anthem to go with it.
Hang on, will Australia become “Americanised” or “turn into a Zimbabwe” if we become a repubilic? How confusing.
We will become a bunch of American Zimbawens and it will cost trillions. Does anyone else feel that someone is having a lend of us?
We dont need to change what already works so well…we already have an Australian as defacto Head of State our GG Bryce and have the added safety of a Monarch who can act to protect Australian interests…
Judith you’ll win more people over to a Republic if you promise never to change the flag…the amount of aussie flags i saw on my way down to the beach and worn by young people was staggering …you’ll never win hearts and minds if you take that away from them.
Gary,
Maybe we should all go to the dreamtime land of “bugger off”.
Glen, they wouldnt have it taken from them just replaced and you dont think they’d be just as proud of a flag with their own heritage on it like the Eureka flag?
jeeeez i thought we oldies were supposed to resist change
I think it would be pretty inconsistent to have a Union Jack on our flag if we were a republic. How many republics have someone else’s flag on their flag? I’m guessing none.
Lots of people are understandably attached to the flag though. We could become a republic, with a view to changing the flag later with a separate referendum, although I gather we probably don’t need one constitutionally or legally.
I always get a bit of a chuckle from those conservatives who lambaste Rudd for “symbolism” (Apology), yet who would be the first to say we must never change the flag because is an important symbol.
I bet if the new flag had Howard’s head in place of the Union Jack the consevatives wouldn’t be able to get rid of the old one quick enough
Steve of the Munch rendition. I just read that the Munch Museum follows up copyright infringements. They seem more concerned about advertisers taking advantage of the work, but I would be remiss if I didn’t share this. The topic needs a separate blog post, almost.
Dio, of course it would have to be done in steps, easy does it, if the public were eased along step by step only the most conservative would dig their heels in, Cuppa, symbols are fine until you outgrow them, i think any flag to mark us as a nation must bring in the indiginous flag, they were the custodians of this land well before we came and took over.
Amigo Vera, on Australia Day, the OZ cricketers are playing oh Collapso kind of cricket. Bring back Damir Dokic anytime.