Newspoll: 54-46

The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.

Elsewhere:

• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).

• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.

• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.

• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.

• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. Ron. I also don’t have a problem with sports people having a significant role – but not too loaded. Its not just the Michael Mansells of the world who have a problem with Australia Day being Jan 26. Just about without exception political leaders in SA, NT and WA have to swallow hard to see the relevance of Jan 26 and now with Ron Barassi and plenty of sports people having similar opinions perhaps some change will come. Fact of life that Australia started on 1 January 2001. Unless there is national agreement on an alternative then that is what should be Australia Day dont you think?

  2. Wakefield,

    Don’t forget that there was an Australian national identity well before 1901 – it just wasn’t a legal entity.

    Having said, if the day has to move, the 1st of January would be the best date. Except (I guess) it would mean one less day off!

  3. Dyno
    I read somewhere that the actual reading of the proclaimation was conducted on 25th (will find source later)

    I asked my history teacher many many moons ago why,considering the first fleet made landfall at Botany bay,that date was not used. I never got a satisfactory answer.Anyone know whywe dont use the Botany Bay landfall date?

  4. Gusface , th british flag was first hung up there in oz on 26th Jan 1788 Celebrations subsequently were celebrations of that event ….of first landing on oz shore that day th 26th and putting flag up

    any sane person wuld want to retain 26th January as Australia Day , thats when white settlemetn on oz shore started , and FROM which changed th continent owards what it is , our oz today Thats reality of our history that no sane person should run from , nor will majority of austrlians run from or try to change th date Purpose of apology was in part to recognise what was displaced but not to hide it but to bring Aborginol austrlians in as one part of one australia ie what post 26th january 1788 has produced , oz today , reality todays ….”invasion day” wishs as th disroptive Mansell wants, is to alternatively maintain a pre 26th jan 1788 “permanent” hatred , chips on shoulder &antipathys …otherwise why do you tink Micj Dobson accepted australian of th year unless he & many Aboriginal leaders also thought along my lines , move forward and embrace what we now hav , a great oz country & respectful of there cultures

  5. 18th jan supply-botany bay,rest of fleet 2 days later
    25 jan supply- port jackson (sydney)
    Phillip had taken longboats from 21 jan to survey port jackson

  6. Wakefield

    Just saw your post
    “I also don’t have a problem with sports people having a significant role – but not too loaded.” I agree with your opinion wakefield , i’d mistook your earlir coment as i’ve debated with many who object to any sports people at all , and feel they do belong signifiantly as sport so so big part of our culture vs other coiuntrys Yes you ar right whilst love cricket I didn’t feel Mark Taylor for egcould be best that year he got it , and also add that committee is abit unbalansed

    About ist Jan a date , I partly answered that in #655 to gusface that i feel 26th January should be celebrated for reason thats first day people got on shore and also when flag wnt up I do concede ou hav a good point Wakefield that
    celebration of our Nation forming is also appropriate like US bit on there ‘Day’ My personal preferense would be to very serously celebrate BOTH for what they actualy ar , and what actualy took place on those days (first landing vs Nationhood) as don’t tink our history highlites signifiance of ist jan enough , but think i’d be in minority as ‘change’ is dificult to achieve over tradition

  7. Ron

    It looks like Dodson seriously considered declining the Award.

    [Prof Dodson said he was anxious about accepting the nomination but eventually decided it was in the best interests of the country.

    “I talked long and hard with my family about this,” he said.]

    BTW I agree that we shouldn’t change Australia Day, although I can certainly see how indigenous people feel. Basically, indigenous people lost a war to an invading British force, which is how most of history works. We can’t expect them to like it but nothing will change it.

  8. hi Ron
    I been on the road all day so just read your tip for a dodson to win. well picked amigo 🙂 Don’t worry about getting mixed up about who has the beard, you aren’t the only one, I had to ask the other half if Mick or Pat was the bearded one.
    I think it was a great choice.
    Just saw Dokic win and is now through to the quarter finals, Gutsy girl, she can be next year’s aussie of the year.

  9. Diogenes

    #658

    “Ron

    It looks like Dodson seriously considered declining the Award.:

    ‘Prof Dodson said he was anxious about accepting the nomination but eventually decided it was in the best interests of the country.’

    diog , you hav admitted being a ‘Shanahan’ apprentice , and that was pure Shanahan “art”

    You quoted he said “he was ANXIOUS about accepting the nomination” , but blah blah… So he did NOT say he was tinking of declining at all What he wuld hav serously thought about and so was quote “anxous” was th reaction of nutters like Mansell faction charging him as a collaborating tyope white , someting Mansell has prevously accuseed both Dobsons of prevously , and that effect of such publisised claims that wuld be headlined would undermine reconcilaition process

    FACT that he DID accept it means what I sugested , he sees 26th Jan as part of oz history process from which 26th Jan reely started that process and he’s embracing a future , and if he thought for a second in his mind that quote 26th Jan was an “invasion day” & maintian th Mansell rage i guarantee you he wuld hav declined , and its not rspectful of micj dodson to think otherwie (not that you were suggesting that I realize)

  10. Ron

    I’m sure that’s what Dodson meant. I wonder if the previous indigenous winners felt they would have to worry about the “nutters”. He said that Australia Day should be changed from 26/1 though. His comment was that lots of his fellows viewed 26/1 as “invasion day”, which I can totally sympathise with.

  11. Vera
    #659

    “hi Ron I been on the road all day so just read your tip for a dodson to win. well picked amigo 🙂 Don’t worry about getting mixed up about who has the beard, you aren’t the only one, I had to ask the other half if Mick or Pat was the bearded one.
    I think it was a great choice.”

    and Vera , it was you i remeber saying first you thought it wuld be great idea to pick an Aboriginal leader , so I just followed your smart idea lead Vera in pickin one Yep a magnifient choise fro this Country , and i always staggered at intelectals swooning over oils Obama and yet here in our country we hav a few dodsons & others to b equaly proud of , and not just talk but actualy done things
    And i promise one nite to tell you a true story of th Michael Long from first hands , of dignity with greatness 🙂 Anyways Vera thanks for lead th other nite

  12. [and i always staggered at intelectals swooning over oils Obama and yet here in our country we hav a few dodson]

    Ron that little statement proves you have no concept of How important Obi’s win was

    Hint-think of the apology and magnify 1000 times

  13. Ron Being a NSWelshman and a Swan supporter (that’s Sydney Swans not Wayne the worlds best treasurer) I’m a fan of another Michael, O’Loughlan that is he’s a sweetheart, and Adam Goodes is a favorite of mine as well.
    Was Michael Long the one who in reply to racist taunts from the crowd lifted his jumper and pointed to his black skin. It became a famous photograph.
    Talking of Obama, on Cactus Island (different place to Gilligans Isle) they call him Barack Oh-Bummer and they have him saying “All men are created equal. It’s just that white guys’ peckers never reach adulthood ”
    http://www.cactus.com.au/index.htm

  14. [Was Michael Long the one who in reply to racist taunts from the crowd lifted his jumper and pointed to his black skin. It became a famous photograph.]

    Nope, that was Nicky winmar – former St Kilda Footy Player.

  15. Why drag gayFL into a political blog, rubbish game, expat followers in Sydney and propped up by the Gay FL in Melbourne, so a a bunch of lonely expats and some in the Eastern Suburbs don’t have to mix with the lower classes

  16. Thanks Frank

    Have a go at this.
    [Dodson, 58, describes himself as a “persistent bugger” in his work to pursue justice and reconciliation for indigenous Australians, the National Australia Day Council said in an e- mailed statement. He was presented with the award at a ceremony in Canberra, the nation’s capital, by Prime Minister John Howard.]
    someone should tell Rebecca Keenan we had an election a year back and we got a new much improved PM now. At least Shamahambles and co admit to Howard being gone.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a7zw8J2RJe3E&refer=australia

  17. John Ryan
    How unaustralian-my da played for subiaco and fathered six kids,he was no cream puff

    gayfl indeed-now soccer is another matter 🙂

  18. Vera , an immortal quote indeed !! 🙂

    Yes Frank is corect , Winmar’s gesture was defianse etc , what Long did was publicly chalenge on a footy gtround in front of 50,00 a Collingwood guY Monkhouse over a racial taunt It was a moment cause Long was a known quiet but brillant footballer and because th ‘chalenge’ was prolonged at clearly caught on live TV camera , and continously replayed They made up later both private and public , a ‘code’ was more enforsed , and highlited aboriginol racial discriminaton tp public in way it could reely understand , thru a champion footy plaayer So John relevance of footy here is in its effect FOR aboriginols , although happy to talk footy at anytime even without an excuse to be honest

    Gusface there’s no 1000 apologies nonsense at all , a myth only Realitys for you ar any Democrat (providing he ran a clever campaign & was articulate , and obama did both ) was goin to defeat th most disliked Republicon POTUS in hisary whether he was black or white , a fact you may find gallingly true ….and statsticaly and know youse myth lovers don’t like facts but on actual polls GFC also played big part You mix intelectual myht with politcal reality , Obama did not win because he was black and if he’d lost it would nott hav been becasue he was black , times favourd a Democrat 9obviously given Bush was th comparison) Same reason an Obama wuld not hav defeated Ronald Reagan in 80’s either , politcal tides come and go for Partys and his being black would not hav been a cause

    Now if one reely wants to look at a defining black leader in racial terms it was Martin Luther King , revered by all US blacks and with justificaton

  19. [Obama did not win because he was black and if he’d lost it would nott hav been becasue he was black , times favourd a Democrat ]

    Geez ron if I didnt know better,I would have thought that line was from the KKK

  20. A irrelvant red herring talking points attemppt as a slur doesn’t change politcal reality does it You may not be able to deel with a politcal inspired result that th times favourd a Democrat black or white pprovided they were a clever camaigner and articulate plus GFC effect helped , (and that by chanse somehow Obama had of lost it still wuld not hav been a black race reason either …not that politcal tides suggested that could happen given Bush (read Republicon) was point guard of what voters needed to vote against

    You wish instead to create your own flawed myth of a ‘race’ win for which there is no politcal substanse , and one liner KKK slurs hardly advanses logic of your case reely

  21. Gusface

    I’ve made two posts (#670 and #672) which any objective person can see is politcal assesment based , to clearly rebut your original ‘racial win’ blog showing it lacked politcal credibility

    In fact my argument standards had it been Hillary , and then I wuld hav said (as with Obama black ) she won not because she was a women ( but also becausee politcal times etc favourd a Democrat , if a clever campaigner & articlator plus GFC AND I wuld hav said if she’d unlikely lost (not likely given Bush was POTUS a Republicon) then if would not hv been because he was a women

    So a hillary win or loss would be not because she was a women ie won or lost politcaly but for th same politcal reasons why I listed for Obama wuld not hav been a ‘gender’ win , even though historic in sense she was first , but sane people wuld NOT hav gone gah gah over it swooning that women had been recognised from slaverys of men geez well past that nonsense (but not perect yet) for women and black peoples ..who both hav earned recognition on there ability irrespectiv of being a black or a women or even a Ron

    Your resort in face of my assessed polital realityies , was then in your last 2 posts to try racial black type KKK slurs , which ar irrlevant to my poltical reasons and reely indicate , well …..

    Enjoy Australia Day , its started , and as courtesy goodnite

  22. Hi judith, at least we have in common that both our teams are of the feathered variety. Crows & Swans, probably suits us us pair of old chooks what do you reckon. 🙂

  23. I love journalists:

    The headline:
    [Mick Dodson wants Australia Day date changed]

    the quote:
    [“I’m not suggesting we move the date. I’m saying that we should have a conversation about that.” ]

    and how fortuitous for Bolt to come back from holidays to trash Dodson.
    Apparently he thinks the Australian of the year committee is a govt stacked one – presumably because the Secretary of Immmigration and a Dep Sec of PM&C are 2 of the 8 members.
    http://www.australianoftheyear.org.au/pages/page15.asp

    sigh.

  24. Grog, most journos are an unethical amoral lot, i’ve got nothing but contempt for most of them and that includes journos of all types not just political, i could tell you stories of some of their practices that would make your hair curl, the motto is “why spoil a good story with the truth” the ordinary news journos bask in dramatic headlines and story’s that bear no relation to the truth and the political journos delight in stirring up strife where theres none, they use inflammatory headlines to make supposition seem fact and trouble where theres not, every now and then you strike gold, the late Matt Price was one, a great journo and a decent person, in Adelaide we have a reasonable political journo in Mike Smithson but these apolitical ones are few and far between, the only reason Dolly Downer gets his monday stint in the Advertiser is because its payback, when a certain editor was based in Canberra Dolly fed him political leaks, so now we have to tolerate Downers fatuious ramblings to pay for it, believe me over the years i’ve had a great deal to do with journos from australia wide host down, most are tarred with the same brush.

  25. Ron@674
    All your backtracking and “muddying” of the waters,confirm my earlier assesment

    I suggest you actually speak to a few “blackfellas” and see what reaction you get when you call obi “oiliness”.

    I am saddened that you think aborigines are great “sporting” models (and seemingly thats all they are good for) and that an intelligent popular african american is “oiliness”,but I suppose reading all that KKK literature does that to you eh ron.

  26. Gusface
    Blackfellas like us whitefellas are also proud of black sporting heros and I don’t recall Ron saying that’s all they are good for. It seems you are the one who has suggested that and your hyphenated blackfellas says a lot. No need for hyphens, trying to emphasise the word as though you are being daring using it. For chrissake I grew up with and my best mate is aboriginal and they call themselves blackfellas and us whitefellas and putting emphasses on one and not the other is a hidden form of rasism IMHO.
    In fact Ron has been full of praise for the Dobsons and they aren’t known for their sporting prowess.

  27. Back on “Australia Day”. Does anyone know of another colonised country which has its national day celebrating – I doubt there are many.

  28. Try again. Does anyone know of another colonised country which has its national day celebrating the start of colonisation – I doubt there are many

  29. Canada’s national day is the day the four provinces became one country.

    New Zealand’s national day is kind of the opposite of ours, it celebrates the Treaty of Waitangi which enshrined Maori civil rights.

  30. Gusface,

    So, Ron’s criticism of Obama makes him a closet racist who takes his cues from KKK literature?

    What a pathetic argument.

  31. Gary, Malcolm’s ideas just get weirder and weirder, who else would advocate a threat to 50,000 jobs in this economic crisis? that was on top of his way out CC scheme, i’m wondering if he’s having a mid life crisis of his own.

  32. [Kim Beasley scored an AC in the Australia Day Honours List. Pathetic.]
    William, I was going to ask much the same question. I think Dio has overlooked the work Beazley has done over his political life, not just the last few years.

  33. William and Gary

    My main problem is that the AC is the highest award in the Honours list. Kim Beasley is only one of many politicians who have worked for the public good over many years. He has made quite a few contributions esp as Defence Minister, but so have many other politicians from both sides of the fence.

    Are all of those politicians who have made as much of a contribution to Australia going to receive an AC? Most politicians don’t receive any Award, let alone the AC. Or does that only go to politicians who have been kicked out as leader of a Party which wins the next election? Are the Honours there to make Rudd and Beasley feel better about what happened?

    It is political cronyism of the highest order. I think it cheapens the Award by politicising it. It’s exactly what would happen in Yes Minister.

  34. [Are all of those politicians who have made as much of a contribution to Australia going to receive an AC?]

    Well yeah they should.. given me a list of those who have done as much as he has over as many years. I think you’ll find it’s a damn small list.

    Not many politicians get them – have a look at this year’s list. Most pollies need to put in as many years as Beazley did. It’s hardly “political” – he is no longer a politician, and it doesn’t give him any money like say an appointment to the UN etc.

    The Bomber deserves the nod; he was a good one.

  35. William and Gary

    In the interests of fairness, I went back and looked at the CVs of previous politicians who had won an AC. All the PMs (except Keating who has never even had an OAM, presumably he declined) have won ACs. Quite a few deputy PMs, Foreign Ministers and long-serving Party leaders have won them.

    So given Beasley’s short time as Deputy PM, his long-term Leadership of the Opposition and time as Defence Minister, I am happy to say I stand corrected and that Beasley deserves the AC, based on precedent. I was wRONg.

  36. [Foreign Ministers and long-serving Party leaders have won them.]

    So I guess Downer will get one one day…
    who else?
    Roddick? – very long service.
    Costello? – somehow I doubt it.
    Crean?? – the honour’s site is down at the minute, but I’d say he probably is already AM from his union days (he and Garrett are probably the only MP with an AM for service done before going into politics)

  37. National days. The following site has most nations listed with a reason for National Day. Australia along with some other countries is missing. Can’t see any that emulate Australia in celebrating a colonial settlement date. Commonwealth of Australia well worth celebrating but on a day which has national recognition – not just the colony of New South Wales?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day

  38. [Commonwealth of Australia well worth celebrating but on a day which has national recognition – not just the colony of New South Wales?]

    Hear, hear.

    But, it’ll never be changed.

    So the best we can do is ignore the tradiitonal reaosn and just make it about celebrating whatever we like about Australia – you know the vibe…

  39. [So the best we can do is ignore the tradiitonal reaosn and just make it about celebrating whatever we like about Australia – you know the vibe…]

    Yeah, but you used to be able to have a picnic in Hyde Park without being mobbed by drunk bogans draped in Aussie flags.

  40. Like a good Aussie, my missus took me to see “Australia” on Australia Day. i am normally not one for our Nic, but i have to say that i really enjoy Australia and our Nic.

    I agree with those bloggers who question the celebration of Australia Day on 26/1.

    [26/01/1788 – But after all no words had come to Wunbula that day. For he had been only a few moments on the cliffs when he had seen something which made his heart leap in his chest, and his pulses hammer with excitement.It was a magic boat. At first only a drift of white to his far sighted eyes. he saw it come out of then south, and he was afraid, believing it to be a spirit sent by Turong, who rules the water……. Wunbula was still there, but now his head was bent and his hands hung idly, and he looked so full of sorrow that Bennilong sidled up to him curiously and looked over his shoulder. There was the winged magic boat.]

    From Timeless Land by Eleanor Dark. Wunbula was the father of Bennilong. I can understand how Wunbula felt that day. He knew, his paradise was lost forever on that moment on the arrival of the magic boat. And now, his people are asked to celebrate the day that Wunbula’s paradise was lost. It does not make sense to me. It has to be a better way and better day.

  41. Malcolm better watch his back
    [A CONTROVERSIAL pastor is seeking divine intervention to install Peter Costello in The Lodge.
    Mr Costello has sent a video message to an Australia Day prayer meeting being organised by Catch the Fire Ministries leader Danny Nalliah.

    Mr Nalliah yesterday said he hoped Mr Costello would lead the Liberal Party to victory at the next election after accusing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull of having anti-Christian agendas.

    Mr Nalliah believes the drought and the world financial crisis can be blamed at least partly on human sin.]
    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24950285-662,00.html

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