Newspoll: 54-46

The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.

Elsewhere:

• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).

• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.

• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.

• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.

• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. c’mon Dio, you know usually the Advertiser bangs the liberal drum, look at the lies and twisting they did against Nicole Cornes and how they usually laud MHS’s pie in the sky ideas, perhaps your being a tad biased here because your anti the Marge, some of us are all for it, i’m no doctor but i’m looking at it from a patient’s point of view, the trams will go right past it and it’s right on the train station, there’ll be underground parking and everything will be ultra modern with a helicopter pad on the roof, Dio, have you ever tried to get a park near the RAH, it’s hell i can tell you, i’ve had both of my knees smashed in an accident and walking distances is out, that counts the RAH out for me, just as well vet affairs allows me some sort of choice, my last turn in hospital was for a skin graft, i had it in Calvary, i would have much preferred the RAH specialists, alterations have been going on at the RAH from as far back as i can remember and it’s still a long way from being up to scratch, regardless of all of that Dio to accuse the Advertiser of being left leaning boggles the imagination, thats why Downer is allowed a weekly column, {i could tell you why} and Chris Kenny, Downer’s offsider was also weekly till he went to Canberra to work for Turnbull a couple of weeks ago, i know some of the Advertiser’s editors and believe me they dont have a labor bone in their bodies.

  2. Now we are expected to believe that a small l Queensland Liberal will go to Canberra and sit in the National Party partyroom meetings.

    [IN a political first for Australia, a Liberal senator may be joining the parliamentary Nationals party in Canberra while remaining a Liberal.

    Queensland Liberal senator Russell Trood has left the door open to a suggestion by Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce that he sit in the Nationals partyroom.

    The move could defuse a spat between the Coalition partners over the Senate spot likely to be available by Senator Joyce switching to the House of Representatives. The row has intensified, with Liberals yesterday attacking a plan by Queensland Nationals to breach the constitution of the state’s Liberal National Party by replacing Senator Joyce in the upper house with another Nationals candidate.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24955337-5006786,00.html

  3. Judith

    I don’t think the Nicole Cornes disgrace was necessarily due to anti-Labor sentiment, I think it was just appalling, populist character assassination. I agree that it was an all-time low for them and I cancelled the Saturday Tiser as a result (my wife got it).

    Mansell was a journo with Mike Rann. There are LOTS of close links on the Health side. The only area I know enough about to really comment on is Health and the Tiser just won’t publish anything anti-Hill or anti-Sherbon (who is the CEO of the Health Dept). Their attitude to Lee Stevens, the previous Health Minister was quite different, and Hill is probably more hopeless than Stevens. There is something foul in the State of Denmark…

    And the difference between the Tiser and the Sunday Mail is quite stark. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t another anti-Marj article tomorrow.

    I don’t mind the Tiser thinking that the Marj should be built; there is a good argument for it. There are also good arguments against it, esp the name change, but the Tiser just won’t show any balance and present both arguments.

  5. [Turnbull turns up ETS heat – Mr Turnbull’s plans, for which he will not provide costings, ……]
    Surprise, surprise, surprise. I wonder if he will provide targets.

  8. Gary, surely you dont expect Turnbull to do anything so mundane like giving targets or costings, you should know his lordship is above such everyday exercises, you’ll just have to take him on trust, he learned well with Howard’s $10b Murry intervention and the indiginous foray, both uncosted and scribbled on the back of envelopes without going through cabinet or treasury.

  11. 508 – Besides, at the present time, where finances reign supreme, surely any such plan should be costed. The opposition is saying this can be done now. Well, how do we know that? It could be too costly to achieve. The Libs are all about not going into deficit and being careful with spending.

  12. [So what. Kevin Rudd or Mark Latham never submitted any of their policy costings to treasury in thier respective election campaigns.]

    What garbage

  14. Another thing, Bree.

    [Labor will subject its election promises to official costing, the Leader of the Opposition, Mark Latham, said yesterday.

    Under sustained attack over his party’s economic credibility, Mr Latham confirmed he would send spending and tax policies to the departments of Treasury and Finance for costing before the election on October 9. “We’ll be complying with the charter of budget honesty,” he said.

    His finance spokesman, Bob McMullan, was negotiating “technical procedures” to make this happen, he said]

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/31/1093938926668.html?from=moreStories

  16. [We finally have some good news from Peter Martin as to whether Australia is headed into recession or not. I was getting sick of his pessimism and doom and gloom so this must be good news indeed.]

    Steve, what this GFC, if we dont know it already, is telling us is that NOBODY knew and knows about anything, even for the master-of-the-universe and the quan-king of this world.

    It simply reminds me of my encounter with G.O.D the other day. She asked me about my future plan, so i told her. She has not stopped laughing ever since.

  17. this would come close to the perfect one liner, it’s on the OZ’s letter columns blog.

    “Turnbull turns up ETS heat” read “Turnbull pumps out more hot air”

  18. Debating whether we will have a recession is a bit like debating whether we will have CC.

    You can’t be sure of either, any more than you can be sure the sun will rise tomorrow.

    However in both cases (just as with tomorrow’s sunrise) you’d jolly well better be planning for it to happen!

  20. Mr Turnbull wants to put more money into carbon capture and storage, an untried and stupid policy. It is just to say that we are still in denial, unfortunately the Rudd Government is doing much the same thing. Meanwhile the world continues to get hotter, last year temperatures went up again on average in this country and the world continues to warm… Put simply our politicians just do not want to do anything.

  21. http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/global-warming/turnbull-unveils-climate-change-policy/2009/01/24/1232471644804.html

    Some things in it are good, like improving effeciency, but most of it is blah blah blah.

    [Debating whether we will have a recession is a bit like debating whether we will have CC.

    You can’t be sure of either, any more than you can be sure the sun will rise tomorrow.]

    Except the next step of your analogy is that with climate change, the sun currently is rising.

  29. [bluddy hell the libs lost Frome!!!]

    Judith, i have not slept nor eaten all these days waiting for the results. TQ, so now i can resume my normal life.

  31. well Finn it’s great news for those of us who’ve been following it, this was the wrong thread, over excitement i think, still Dio might be interested.

  34. [Finn, this is a political blog. What do you expect? It’s better than taking cheap shots at Obama all day.]

    GB, you mean like this?

    [WASHINGTON – On her first day as secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton yesterday did what she does best: She used her star quality to shine attention on a State Department that felt it had been in the shadows for far too long. With a broad smile, Clinton won excited, almost giddy, applause and cheers from hundreds of diplomats, foreign service officers and staff as she worked a rope line in the department’s packed main lobby yesterday morning….. As if to underscore Clinton’s role both as the high-profile public face of U.S. diplomacy, and as a member of his team of rivals, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden paid an unusually early visit to Foggy Bottom.]

    http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/ny-usclin236009151jan23,0,1737272.story

    Yes, it was unfortunate that Obi has to play second fiddle to Hillary on that occasion. She even got the gig to announce the two special envoys for ME and Afgan/Pakistan.

    [well Finn it’s great news for those of us who’ve been following it, this was the wrong thread, over excitement i think, still Dio might be interested.]

    Yes Judith, that well known Hillary lover will be pleased.

  35. Finn, i’m not going to apologise for posting on the wrong thread in my excitement, please dont use my posts to take sarcastic pot shots at other posters, Dio and i dont always see eye to eye on everything but i have massive respect for him and his views, he treats me with respect which is more than you are doing, if you dont like my post please dont reply to them, cheers, judy.

  38. Finns

    [She used her star quality to shine attention on a State Department that felt it had been in the shadows for far too long. With a broad smile, Clinton won excited, almost giddy, applause and cheers]

    She must have had Bill in tow and they were excited to see him again. Then again, after four years of Condi, anyone would look good. 😀

  41. From that Tiser article.

    [Gleeful Labor MPs have run off copies of Mr Hamilton-Smith’s `Liberal victory’ press release to hold up when State Parliment resumes next month to goad the Liberals.]

  43. While I appreciate the mutual love in going on here I will return to Malcolm’s strategy on carbon.

    Why release it on the Saturday of a long weekend? Was it for public consumption or Liberal – National Party consumption?

    I think the latter.

  44. Diog, hmmmm, only an “appropriate level ” level? never mind.

    But i do have massive respect for you. otherwise, why would I travel all the way to Macchu Piccu to place a “Diog, you were wRONg sign” there even though you were RIGHT about Obi.

  45. Finns

    The last person I know who went to Macchu Pichu went by himself, spoke to the Knowledge Trees, and decided to leave his wife and kids.

  46. ruawake, is there a polling going on this weekend? thats when Turnbull seems to unfold his big announcements, newspoll wont be taken till next weekend, parliament starts tuesday, perhaps he’s trying to get some momentum up or top Rudd’s new package for publicity.

  47. [ruawake, is there a polling going on this weekend? thats when Turnbull seems to unfold his big announcements, newspoll wont be taken till next weekend, parliament starts tuesday, perhaps he’s trying to get some momentum up or top Rudd’s new package for publicity.]

    Or coincide with a column by a News Ltd friendly writer like the poisoned dwarf 🙂 and Mark Riley on Ch 7.

  48. Judith

    Thats why its weird, if Turnbull had announced it yesterday it would have made the printed versions of the newspapers.

    Did it really have to wait for the Young Libs talk fest?

    Parliament sits in a bit over a week, next Friday would have been a good day to release it, then have momentum going into tuesday QT.

    Turnbull must have known, or should have known that his “strategy” will be lost in Australian of the year, fireworks, fights and arrests.

    I think this announcement is more about soothing L-NP factions, than a real attempt at doing anything on carbon.

  49. do you think the troops might just be getting a bit restless? they have this last newspoll that gave him a boost, though blind freddy would see it as things just settling back to normal after an outlier, which it was.

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