Newspoll: 59-41

The parliamentary year has ended with a striking result from Newspoll: Labor leads 59-41, up from 55-45 last fortnight, with Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 66 per cent (up three) to 19 per cent (down two). Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 70 per cent is one point shy of his previous best from April, while Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval have both gone five points in the wrong direction, to 47 per cent and 32 per cent (The Australian offers a graphic and a nifty preferred prime minister tracker showing figures back to early 2006). Nonetheless, the leadership ratings suggest voting intention would have been even worse for the Coalition if Brendan Nelson was still leader. Turnbull’s approval rating is still seven points higher than Nelson’s best result, and the 47 per cent gap on preferred prime minister is roughly equal to what Nelson managed when Rudd’s approval was in the mid-50s. Elsewhere:

Essential Research also has Labor leading 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are questions on the performance of Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer, the relative popularity of Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop and “global terrorism and international unrest”.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper providing statistical details from every election since federation, along with a precis detailing the circumstances of each election.

• Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have announced that a public and political affairs television network called A-APAN, along the lines of the American C-SPAN, will be launched on January 20 next year. It will feature coverage of parliament and committee proceedings, industry meetings, and congressional and parliamentary coverage from the United States and the United Kingdom. It will be available on pay TV and digital free-to-air, the latter initially only in Sydney.

• Colin Barnett says the proposal for fixed terms in Western Australia will feature “a mechanism if there is some catastrophic behaviour of a government that you might be able to bring on a poll”. It will also provide for flexibility in the announcement of a date in either February or March, rather than fixing a precise date.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the recent criticism of New South Wales’ system of fixed four-year terms.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,313 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. Albert

    I’m not sure about Adam not making a mistake. His nuke ’em solution to Muslim extremism doesn’t seem to be on the ALP as their official policy. Perhaps I need to read between the lines. And Ron is the James Joyce and Vargas Llosa of the blogging world. His writings are actually more complex and nuanced than plain boring English.

    MayoFeral

    Is that arsenic poisoning the same as in Bangladesh? They’re being mass poisoned at the moment and are having to leave their land (I’m not up to that bit yet. I’m reading about Lewisite and arsenic poisoning from beer in Manchester, 6000 people of whom 70 died!).

    Ronster

    Biomass is about 2/3 of that. Hydroelectric is 16%, solar is about 6%. Geothermal, solar, wind and tide are only 4%. I trust this this satisfies your requirements.

  2. #1250 – I also heard on RN this morning that the ‘experts” are predicting that the OZ dollar will fall below 60c to USD in 2009. i seem to remember the same ‘experts” were predicting that the OZ dollar will be on parity with USD right now.

    As the Peruvians like to say under the knowledge tree of Maccu Picchu “FARC the experts”.

  3. Dio 1253

    I presume you mean that the republicans guiding principle is to help their friends and forget the rest? The economic case for helping the auto industry was vastly stronger than for the banks, yet they spent $700 billion on the latter and none on the former. The US auto industry employs over 2 million people. I agree its badly run and should be forced to reform, but this pretty much guarantees they will go into a severe recession next year.

  4. Socrates

    I’m just saying the Repug principle (right or wrong) is no hand-outs, no bail-outs, let the free market sort out who lives and dies. I don’t agree myself, but at least they are following their guiding principles, although I suspect it’s mainly because of fear of the huge auto union. 👿

  5. Dio

    Understood, but I was just pointing out that they didn’t apply it when their banker buddies were going broke. Hence its just empty rhetoric used to justify what they want to do for reasons of personal prejudice.

    Anyway you can’t put 2 million people on the dole-queue without pretty major adverse social and economic consequences. Among other things, GM alone has unfunded employee retirement and health care liabilities that exceed $40 billion US. Even right wing economists I read pointed out that the bailout would have been cheaper than the unemployment and health costs that will fall to government. Financially Ford is the only one that seems likely to survive unaided, although it has already made large job cuts when it closed the SUV factories.

  6. Those puzzled by events in Greece may find this interesting:

        In Greece, a crisis decades in the making

    Diogenes @ 1251

    Is that arsenic poisoning the same as in Bangladesh?

    I’ve read that the water from a majority of the wells there has high arsenic levels which I assume has something to do with the soil, but I don’t know if it is acid sulphate or another factor.

    BTW-repeated inquiries about the ability of our current water filtration plants to remove arsenic and other toxic compounds have drawn contradictory answers. I’m beginning to suspect that if there is indeed anyone who really knows Rann has had him/her locked in a very dark soundproof cupboard deep in the bowels of a secret state government facility.

  7. You aren’t intimating that the Repugs are hypocritical, are you? OMG you awful man!! I would have thought $15B was pretty cheap, but what would I know? It looks like Obama will inherit the problem and his Senate numbers should allow him to get the legislation through.

  8. Glen

    Agreed but I think there’s a timing issue with GM especially paying it’s bills. If a few banks decide to call in their loans to get in first, it could all be over in a few weeks. The bankruptcy lawyers, who must think all their Christmases have come at once, are already on the case at GM and Chrysler.

  9. Personally id rather them spend that 15b on another stimulus package…the motor industry has not cleaned its act up and they dont run viable businesses so i hardly think they deserve a get out of jail free card.

  10. I would like to see GM go bankrupt – then have the bailout package.

    If you let GM go down, Congress will have a better bargaining position with the other car-makers, because they will be able to say “We’re willing to see you go down if we don’t like the terms of the deal, so accept what we’re offering or go down like GM”.

  11. On the the Auto Industry debate, The Republican Senate leader Senator Mitch McConnell (Rep) is from Kentucky! he seems to be playing hard to get, I see its been reported that this Senator is willing to support admendment to the purposed bill that basically wants Union members to take a pay-cut to match the pay levels of non-union car markers elsewhere in America.

    Are the Republicans this narrow minded, sure I find it bizarre that the car makers pay for retired workers when that should be the job of one’s on personal savings and the Government should be providing a suitable health system thus saving business the cost of paying for long retired workers.

    How and why is America so stuffed?

  12. If the three auto makers fall over it is good-bye to three million jobs!!

    I don’t envy Obama for one moment but he needs to look Congress in the eye and totally reform that country!

    This is a country that runs around the world claiming to know how to run things but from what I can see do they get anything right.

  13. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has today released the
    latest Photovoltaics Status Report. This scientific study combines analysis of
    up-to-date international manufacturing and market implementation data
    throughout 2007 with subsequent strategic and political developments up to
    September 2008.

    Preliminary findings show:

    – an increase in the yearly growth rate of solar photovoltaic production, averaging
    40% over five years and then peaking at 60% in 2007;

    – a €5.7 billion turnover in Germany in 2007 with in excess of 100,000 houses
    installing solar panels;

    – world electricity production with PV systems is ca 10 Billion KWh, of which half
    comes from the EU. Solar energy still accounts for only 0.2% of total electricity
    consumption in Europe. Yet, the net effect is 4 million fewer tonnes of CO2 being
    released;

    – incentive schemes and technical advances are having a positive downward
    impact on photovoltaic costs. Market value is estimated to reach €40 billion by
    2010 with lower prices for consumers.

    http://tinyurl.com/6jxdoh (pdf)

    Full report (pdf): http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/PV%20Report%202008.pdf

  14. Reports all over the media about pensioners pouring their $1,400 windfall into poker machines.

    I hope journos remember this when next they interview half naked OAPs whinging about the heartless government forcing them to exist on dog food.

  15. [Reports all over the media about pensioners pouring their $1,400 windfall into poker machines. ]

    The media knows a good beat up when they smell it

  16. Glen

    The answer on the majority is procedural – since Obama fell short of the 60 seat fillibuster proof majority the republicans can stall this bailout bill indefinitely.

    I agree with all the criticisms of GM, but even so if it breaks up there is a huge loss.

  17. Amigo FINNS
    Posted Friday, December 12, 2008 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    #1249
    “Amigo Ronnie,
    “let me repeat this for the uninitiated:”

    Ah th flock grows daily , expidentialy Forks in road to th pearly gates of Uni’s of overlooded information flows & certificates of confirmation , and where were those wisdom sense & logic learnings but in another fork th knowledge trees of Maccu Picchu , and yet th band continues unheard to play

  18. Regarding the infrastructure announcement, obviously as an engineer I am biased but it is welcome news and should geneate jobs, (although most of these big projects take at least 6-12 months to get going). Even so there is an obvious political risk. on economic and infrsatructure condition grounds the biggest need is in Sydney but Rudd will want to avoid the perception of rewarding that state for its failure by funding all the works it failed to fund itself. There is also the potential to make genuine progress on emission reductions via funding for improvements to the electricity grid (more capacity for wind plants and competition across state boundaries) and urban rail.

  19. IF the Senate snots on the Auto Bailout and , say GM files for bankruptcy, won’t Ford and Chrysler be able to pick up some cheap machinery and workers? Surely that will make them competitive. Also the big question is how would a failure of the Auto Bailout package affect the Australian auto industry? Would it be a net positive or negative?

  20. Diogenes, I never claimed that nuking the Muslim world was ALP policy, so that was not a mistake. If you got out of your tub occasionally you would be better informed. If you want to know about my mistakes, which are legion, I keep a list. My best for the year so far is the one made after Obama won the Iowa caucus: “None of this matters, because Clinton will wrap up the nomination on Super Tuesday.”

  21. Dio

    Its tricky. The machinery is to make different cars so it may be worth very little. Look around Adelaide and you will know how much old factories are worth. The skilled workers (engineers and designers) will be fine but factory workers is a problem. First they are scattered in cities all over the mid-west; they aren’t all in Detroit. There is already an oversupply of car workers. Ford and Chrysler would probably rehire their own people they laid off recently while closing their SUV plants and cutting shifts.

    In some respects Ford and Chrysler will be more likely to survive without GM because they will have a chance of increasing their market share and hence reducing losses. However there are many component manufacturers who supply all three that a closure of GM could send bust. That would hurt Chrysler and Ford. Similar things have already happened in Australia in the past two years.

    As for effects on Australia I have no idea. GM here would struggle without the parent; despite the claims about local engineering they can’t develop an entire car here – they import a lot of the more advanced technology. GM here is still a profitable business and so they might be attractive to buy out. If the end result was that someone else (Honda or Mazda?) bought them that might be good in the long term. Hard part is that nobody has got much money for large acquisitions now.

  22. Adam

    I never said that you claimed nuking the Muslim world is ALP policy. My very tricky and subtle point was that you are a prominent and very famous ALP figure who was veering just a little bit away from ALP policy. The Labor Party could form the view that you were in error. Personally, I quite enjoyed the discussion. And why would I want to leave my tub? It’s so warm and cosy.

  23. [Even so there is an obvious political risk. on economic and infrsatructure condition grounds the biggest need is in Sydney but Rudd will want to avoid the perception of rewarding that state for its failure by funding all the works it failed to fund itself.]

    But if you add the fact that NSW is the only state where Rudd is now less popular than last year, you’ve got a convincing political case to invest there.

  24. [My very tricky and subtle point was that you are a prominent and very famous ALP ]
    Is he REALLY that prominent and famous?

    He’s not like Barry Jones or Robert Ray.

  25. AdelaideNow is also running a poll on whether the Libs and Nats should part company. HAHAHAHA

    [SECRET talks aimed at averting another disastrous breakdown in internal discipline inside the Federal Coalition will be held today.
    AdelaideNow can reveal that Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull will convene the talks with key players in Sydney.
    It is understood that others attending will be: Opposition Leader in the Senate, Nick Minchin, the leader of the powerful right faction of the Liberal Party, Nationals Leader, Warren Truss, and Liberal National Party Queensland President, Bruce McIver, and the outspoken and high profile Queensland Nationals senator, Barnaby Joyce.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24789405-5006301,00.html

  26. Either we should merge or they can get out im sick of the Nats really, either they actually want to bring Rudd down or they dont!

    To envoke the words of a ‘Great’ President, “You are either with us or against us”…

    LNP or bust

  27. MB @ 1263,

    [
    On the the Auto Industry debate, The Republican Senate leader Senator Mitch McConnell (Rep) is from Kentucky! he seems to be playing hard to get, I see its been reported that this Senator is willing to support admendment to the purposed bill that basically wants Union members to take a pay-cut to match the pay levels of non-union car markers elsewhere in America.

    Are the Republicans this narrow minded, sure I find it bizarre that the car makers pay for retired workers when that should be the job of one’s on personal savings and the Government should be providing a suitable health system thus saving business the cost of paying for long retired workers.

    How and why is America so stuffed?
    ]

    As # 1265 noted, arrogance (a suitable equiv. for hubris). The US has never ever been able to be a national health care plan organized. People simply don’t want to be taxed over it I don’t think so don’t know how else they could get the money organized to pay for it. With the US population, this concept of UHC won’t come cheaply, even now with whatever Obama turns out.

    On your other point though of Auto companies/unions/retirees health programs etc. etc., I can speak to that. There is a long tradition, right or wrong but it exists none the less, of the unions getting as good a deal as they can for their workers. This is plainly and simply why US cars cost more and give you less than those manufactered in other countries. They have to pay for the union contracts somehow. Given todays economic climate, you could create a persuasive argument that these problems have been building over a number of years because of the benefits conferred to the union employees. You might be right, but the question is what to do about it in the HERE and NOW. You simply can NOT take the benefits for retirees away from them as that is a contractual obligation the car companies must fulfill. The only way that it can legally be removed is through the bankruptcy courts as then EVERYONE has to stand in the queue for sorting out who gets paid in the end and how much.

    Had the US had the mettle to get health care sorted out over the years, the economy wouldn’t be saddled right now with so much overhead on costs and charges in that regard.

    I feel really sorry for my parents as I’ve no idea what will happen to them in the new year if GM goes under. They are both 73. Mum is scheduled for a hip replacement in the North American spring. Dad is a GM retiree 🙁 ………

  28. Glen

    Briggs agrees with you and is happy to say so. Briggs seems to lack some of Downer’s diplomatic skills. This is a pretty extraordinary attack on a senior politician by a six month newbie.

    [“Barnaby wants to make a decision over the Christmas period, does he want to be part of a team or does he want to be a renegade?” Mr Briggs said on ABC local radio. “If he wants to be a maverick, he does that outside of the Coalition.”
    Mr Briggs later told The Advertiser he stood by his comments.
    “It’s exactly what I said – if you are part of a team, you have to play by team rules,” he said.”You can’t have a situation where people get special privileges to go out and say whatever they want to say.” He said the Coalition was “working quite well, but the problem is, one person needs to make up his mind on whether he wants to part of the coalition or not”.]
    Jamie Briggs lashes out at Barnaby Joyce
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24789355-5006301,00.html

  29. [ # 1249 –

    And now I understand
    what you tried to say to me
    How you suffered for you sanity
    How you tried to set them free
    They would not listen they did not know how
    perhaps they’ll listen now
    Starry starry night ]

    and there is another version –

    A long, long time ago
    I can still remember
    How the government would keep me down
    And I knew if I had my chance
    That my portfolio would advance
    And I’d exploit the system for a while

    But no disclosure made folks writhe
    With every derivative I derived
    Not a word was spoken
    ‘Bout how it all was broken
    And the three that I thought were so grand
    Reagan, Greenspan, and Ayn Rand
    We know now they should’ve all been canned
    The day the market died

    So, bye bye, Mr. Capitalist Guy
    Sold the public down the river, now they want you to fry
    And good old boys continue with the same lies
    Singing “please bail us out or we’ll die, please bail us out or we’ll die”

  30. glen said:

    To envoke the words of a ‘Great’ President, “You are either with us or against us”

    I say, that statement pretty much sums up the problem with the liberal party, broad church, like hell.

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