Newspoll: 59-41

The parliamentary year has ended with a striking result from Newspoll: Labor leads 59-41, up from 55-45 last fortnight, with Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 66 per cent (up three) to 19 per cent (down two). Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 70 per cent is one point shy of his previous best from April, while Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval have both gone five points in the wrong direction, to 47 per cent and 32 per cent (The Australian offers a graphic and a nifty preferred prime minister tracker showing figures back to early 2006). Nonetheless, the leadership ratings suggest voting intention would have been even worse for the Coalition if Brendan Nelson was still leader. Turnbull’s approval rating is still seven points higher than Nelson’s best result, and the 47 per cent gap on preferred prime minister is roughly equal to what Nelson managed when Rudd’s approval was in the mid-50s. Elsewhere:

• Essential Research also has Labor leading 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are questions on the performance of Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer, the relative popularity of Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop and “global terrorism and international unrest”.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper providing statistical details from every election since federation, along with a precis detailing the circumstances of each election.

• Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have announced that a public and political affairs television network called A-APAN, along the lines of the American C-SPAN, will be launched on January 20 next year. It will feature coverage of parliament and committee proceedings, industry meetings, and congressional and parliamentary coverage from the United States and the United Kingdom. It will be available on pay TV and digital free-to-air, the latter initially only in Sydney.

• Colin Barnett says the proposal for fixed terms in Western Australia will feature “a mechanism if there is some catastrophic behaviour of a government that you might be able to bring on a poll”. It will also provide for flexibility in the announcement of a date in either February or March, rather than fixing a precise date.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the recent criticism of New South Wales’ system of fixed four-year terms.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,313 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  4. [Most of the time it’s been between 55 and 60. Strange as it may seem, Rudd is becoming of the great phenomena of Australian political history.]
    We should all get our predictions in for the next election. I’ll go with 90 seats for Labor. They’ll get 54% 2pp

  5. Glen, they knew in the formative days of WorstChoices that people would be “hurt”. They insisted (at first, till the political heat piled up on them) on having no disadvantage test. What other outcome did they envisage than that employers would use their policy to cut pay and conditions? Remember the Spotlight case where employees had to sign “agreements” by which they lost conditions in “exchange” for a 2 cent per hour rise. Spotlight said they were doing just as the legislation asked them to do.

  7. [The strange thing is that Turnbull still has high personal approval ratings for an Opposition Leader with only a 19% PPM. ]
    Didn’t Beazley frequently get similar numbers? People liked him, but only as Opposition Leader.

  8. The best ever:

    ANONYMOUS COUNTRY PARLIAMENTARIAN: “If there’s one thing I’m proud of it’s this: I’m a country member!”

    WHITLAM: “I remember.”

  11. Cuppa, nobody on either side would deliberately put in laws for the purpose of cutting people’s pay that wasnt Workchoices aim whatsoever…in fact the fair pay commission actually raised the minimum wage so please your attempts at smearing the Coalition any further on this is just too rich!

  12. [I’ll go with 90 seats for Labor. They’ll get 54% 2pp]

    Dear me. I’m going to play ALP Den Mother now, and warn you all against the dangers of HUBRIS. Go and look it up, and then write out 100 times. “I must not succumb to hubris.” Many terrible things can happen in two years, and some of them probably will. Good night.

  14. I don’t know if there is much point changing Turnbull at this point, but on these figures I would be very surprised if Julie Bishop is retained. Gillard has her dead to rights.

  15. “The strange thing is that Turnbull still has high personal approval ratings for an Opposition Leader with only a 19% PPM.”

    not strange at all unless you believ in that foolish PPM method (66/19 vs 2PP 59/41)

    wish people would get out of disynland

  16. Glen, what if they were doing it to please their business and employer constituency with the promise of reduced wages and bigger profits?

  17. [Dear me. I’m going to play ALP Den Mother now, and warn you all against the dangers of HUBRIS.]

    Oh come on. One week of Hubris for Christmas, then back to reality!

  18. [Cuppa, nobody on either side would deliberately put in laws for the purpose of cutting people’s pay that wasnt Workchoices aim whatsoever]
    Of course it was! It was designed to lower the wages of low skilled workers, so businesses could employ more people on lower wages.

    My argument was simple. If we are going to take money off people, it should be people who can afford it, not cleaners and check out chicks.
    [in fact the fair pay commission actually raised the minimum wage so please your attempts at smearing the Coalition any further on this is just too rich!]
    Of course the minimum wage went up when the economy was growing.

    What would WorkChoices acheive now that the world economy is going backwards? It would simply make it easier to sack people when they can least afford to lose their jobs.

  19. Adam

    On the recesion front, it is still guesswork but most economists I read still put Australia at one of the best positions in the OECD. So any recession here coudl still legitimately be pointed out as better than most other countries. Hence I really don’t think Labor are very vulnerable there. In fact, even if Australia goes into recession next year, it would probably be coming out by the time a poll is due in 2010.

  20. There was no promise of that Cuppa and like i said the fair pay commission raised wages not decreased them like the Unions and ALP said!

    Just remember Hubris destroyed Howard and it can destroy Rudd too.

  23. [Oh come on. One week of Hubris for Christmas, then back to reality!]
    Hear hear!

    I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term. This has been a strong pattern by Labor states, I am looking for parallels with the first term of the Rudd government.

    The fact Labor’s 2pp vote doesn’t seem to go lower than 54 is evidence that they will secure a second term easily.

  24. http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2008-02-19.14.1

    Julia Gillard, Questions Without Notice, House Of Representatives, 19 February 2008

    [We know that the things that are basic to the take-home pay of Australians got stripped away. Shift loadings were excluded in 70 per cent of agreements, annual leave loading was excluded in 68 per cent of agreements and penalty rates were excluded in 63 per cent of agreements. This is the truth that the Howard government covered up in the run-up to the election.]

  26. True about the hubris. Best way to avoid that is to examine NSW State Labor. There is an ugly mess that needs fixing. If Australia does go into recession, they will probably be the difference.

  27. socrates 64 – I reckon you are right on Bishop being the first to go, but to Glen’s dismay, Brough will never make it back and Tip will in be charge before the next election.

  29. [Cossie would have better numbers than Turnbull as PPM. It’s time he pulled his finger out.]
    He’s gonna sulk until the entire coalition party room pleads with him.

  36. Cuppa find me one piece of evidence that Howard or any Minister created workchoices to reduce the pay of people? You cannot!

    Dario but you are forgetting the Unions and ALP said the fair pay commission would decrease the minimum wage and they didnt, their arguments were spurious!

  39. Was the FPC instructed by Howard to raise the min wage?
    If yes, then serious trouble here.
    If no, then argument @61 is vitiated. There would be a complete disconnect between FPC and Govt policy.

  41. GG no it didnt, we lost for a variety of reasons…

    But i believe in occum’s razor in that all things being equal the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, the simplest explanation is they got tired of Howard and we got the boot.

    Dolly said it the best “they just got over John Howard in the end”

    There is no denying we made policy errors but in the end Howard stayed too long.

  42. “I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term.”

    Nonsense , hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton There is no corelation at all ..and State Govt history is diferent to Federal

  43. Bryce the FPC was set up to not allow massive increases in wages that did not align to productivity and it was successful.

    Now enough from me im getting too depressed.

  44. [Cuppa find me one piece of evidence that Howard or any Minister created workchoices to reduce the pay of people? You cannot!]
    Because that is the effect it had.

    Glen, low skilled workers NEED Award protections to ensure their conditions. WorkChoices undermined Awards (even Hockey admits this!) therefore WorkChoices increased the chance of low skilled workers being ripped off.

    Who cares if WorkChoices made it easier for a corporate lawyer to earn $120,000 instead of $100,000 such people don’t rely on Award protections!

    WorkChoices was designed to attack LOW skilled workers in retail jobs. It is unfair, unethical, and immoral to attack workers who have the least to lose.

  45. [Cuppa find me one piece of evidence that Howard or any Minister created workchoices to reduce the pay of people? You cannot!]

    They made it possible for employers to remove conditions such as penalty rates and overtime with no recompense.

    What did they expect would happen? That employers wouldn’t use this new money-grabbing mechanism?

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