Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 59.5-40.5, up from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Primary votes are Labor 50.5 per cent (up 1.5), Coalition 35.5 (down 0.5) and Greens 7.5 (down 1). Elsewhere:

• The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.

• A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green‘s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.

• Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.

• In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. Good post Pica.

    Anti-union forces would argue, I suppose, that a properly regulated industry wouldn’t allow the kind of exploitation you describe to occur. And therein lies the rub: when it comes to the safety of workers, employer-controlled or even state-based, workplace protection and monitoring has historically been less effective than that provided by unions (directly or otherwise).

  4. This idea of Harper’s that an opposition has no right to form a coalition with other parties to defeat his government is a joke. He claims that they weren’t elected as the majority party and therefore have no right to govern without another election. Does he really understand how his political system works?

  5. So what?? It would be a formality that the Bloc and Conservatives would vote down a Liberal/NDP Government…. hence the GG would call another election and it would be a majority for Harps.

    Dion is a lame duck and Harper probably wants to bring down his Government…why else would he try to eliminate campaign financing subsidies by the State…because the Libs who have 0 money would vote against it and the Government…

  6. I just heard on the news that Robert Doyle is leading in the early counting of the local council elections here in Vic. How early do they start counting?

  8. The Bloc Québécois would not be part of any coalition government, but has expressed support for the idea as long as the coalition provides economic help for Quebec’s forest and manufacturing sectors.

    “Gov.-Gen. Michaëlle Jean has been travelling in Europe for the past few days. She’s shown here visiting the monument of Hungary’s 1956 anti-communist revolution martyrs with her husband Jean-Daniel Lafond in Budapest on Wednesday. (Karoly Arvai/Reuters)”What’s happening in Ottawa right now is there are negotiations going on between the Liberals and the NDP about what that government would look like,” CBC’s Margo McDiarmid reported from Ottawa.”
    Glen you may want to read that article linked by ltep at 148. You may not be able to rely on the Bloc.

  9. “Oz, please explain why you believe a union should be able to enter a workplace in which there are no union members?”

    Silly comment.

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/workchoice-lite-thats-a-load-of-emotive-nonsense-20081128-6n1q.html?page=2

    “much publicity has been given to the decision to permit union representatives to enter work sites where they have no members, but where there are workers eligible to be members.

    Only someone who regards unions as fundamentally illegitimate could worry about this. In practice it will mean little.”

  10. GP has yet to tell us if he thinks unions should be scrapped. Let’s face it everything he says in regard to unions points to such a conclusion.

  11. Weak…anyway who would want Dion as PM he’s in the process of vacating the leadership so who’d be PM…Jack Layton HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    The NDP is more radical than the Greens….and you’d have a lame Duck PM lol before someone who never faced an election as leader or been a federal leader before being PM its just stupid really.

    Why wouldnt the Bloc defeat a Liberal/NDP administration??? What have they to gain by getting the Liberals in power federally when they are going cut throat in the Quebec provincial elections right now?

  12. [Why wouldnt the Bloc defeat a Liberal/NDP administration??? What have they to gain by getting the Liberals in power federally when they are going cut throat in the Quebec provincial elections right now?]
    How about this Glen – “the coalition provides economic help for Quebec’s forest and manufacturing sectors.”
    They have Harper over a barrel.

  13. I think you are underestimating the fact that there will be many Liberal Party MPs (Red Tories) who would be very unhappy if they staged this coup…so considering that and given it would only take a few rebels or Bloc MPs their Government would be a shambles…plus they have different ideological positions on issues that would stain any alliance.

    Harper has bent over a barrel to give Quebec what it wants….

  14. You can laugh all you want Glen but if a minority government doesn’t toe the line the strength of such a system, if minor parties are indeed serious about the outcomes they desire, is that they can turn to the opposition to get their way, and fair enough too.

  15. I cannot believe the so called “Red Tories” would forgo government. You sound worried Glen and I would suggest you have something to worry about.

  16. Gary a minority government has to govern….it cannot be held hostage by minor parties…of course all this assumes the Bloc would vote against the Government which is no sure thing…

    The NDP dont need the Liberals the Liberals need the NDP….how could they honestly convince the Bloc they’d have a more stable government than Harpers???

    Also a Liberal/NDP Minority would have just 114 MPs…whereas the Tories would have 143…so even with them combined they’d have 30 less MPs which is just stupid they would try to form a Government….

  19. If what you say is true, and you seem to know more about it than me Glen, then why is Harper reluctant to call parliament together and face the no confidence motion? According to you he has the numbers?
    I think you are taking the Bloc for granted, not a good move. I hope Harper does that.
    The other point I would make Glen is that we’re in unchartered waters financially and any minority government is at risk if the oppostion parties think they are not performing in the best interests of the people they represent. As I said, rightly so.

  20. Yes but the NDP want the Finance Ministry and Environment Ministry so i dunno the Liberals would like that…also the NDP want the Liberals to not proceed with business tax cuts and the Libs supported them in the election…lot of sticking points indeed.

  22. Glen @ 157,

    [
    Glen
    Posted Saturday, November 29, 2008 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
    yeeeeeeeeeeeeha but we have a stupid preferential system so a Doyle win is no cert
    ]

    Well the votes aren’t completely counted yet BUT at this point, I can certainly say I’m GLAD that Kennett kept his nose out of this race …. at least I can thank God for that small favor 😉

  23. “You should not feed pet food to blue-tongues.”

    This is a political statement.

    pet food – e.g. saccharine praise

    blue-tongues – e.g. Christopher Pyne after a night on the merlot

    (Pet food gives blue-tongues the bloat, which can sometimes, perversely, result in their thoroughly undeserved re-election.)

  24. Glen, when government is on the line many sticking points can be overcome. Harper had better do so or he will find himself on the other side of the chamber.

  25. Also Gary it would look bad if the Libs/NDP stayed in power only because of a political party that wants to destroy Canada…not a good look!

  26. [Also Gary it would look bad if the Libs/NDP stayed in power only because of a political party that wants to destroy Canada]

    You realise that the flipside is that the Conservatives stay in power only because of a political that wants to “destroy Canada”.

  27. The Conservatives are in a minority in the Commons so they need at least one other party and I don`t think the Liberals and the NDP have been helping them there in the last 20 months or so, so the Conservatives have been propped up by the Block during their current stint in government.

  28. Denis Shanahan has realised the obvious, that Julie Bishop is a political corpse. So over the political silly season it will all be about the Dept Leadership tensions.

    Anyone care to wager on Ms Bishop retiring from politics for “personal reasons” ? 😛

  30. Oz, you know that if a political party wants to destroy Canada that that is OK as long as they support a Conservative government. Where is your mind at?

  31. Why is it that the Liberals say they believe in choice when their policies do not reflect that to be the case?
    * They admit that people have a right to join a union yet they want to destroy unions.
    * They say you can choose between public or private hospitals yet strip funding from public and offer a rebate for private.
    * Same again with funding for private and public schools, more for private than public.
    * They say they believe in a fair go in the workplace yet introduce workchoices.

    The Liberal Party is the party of deceit and is one of the main reasons I switched to Labor.

  32. I can’t remember who said it, but someone earlier noted that the media has begun to smell blood. Turnbull and the powerbrokers in the Libs are getting nervous and if they don’t do something the media will be start gunning for Turnbull.

    So what they’ve done, cleverly, is throw them a carcass – Bishop.

  34. I note that most here, including William it seems, are placing little importance on the local council elections here in Vic. Wise move. Give me a can of drying paint any day.

  35. Ruawake! why do you think Dutton is gone in Dickson, I would imagine that while it is winnible I would have thought if the ALP couldn’t win it last time they may struggle next time, the same applies to Herbert

  38. [I noticed that PBers were talking about fixed terms earlier, how about fixed 3.5 year terms? :)]

    Just who do you think you are coming up with compromises like that?

  39. There will probably be a redistribution in Qld next year so it’s a bit premature to be speculating about particular seats in 2010.

    What’s happening in Canada is very interesting. Harper’s Tory government is the only major western government which is refusing to resort to Keynesian policies (spend big and go into deficit) to deal with the GFC. Instead he proposes cutting spending to balance the budget, which is what governments did in pre-Keynesian days. That’s why the 1929 Crash turned into the Great Depression. Very bold stuff for a minority PM. No wonder the other three parties are planning to put him out. The BQ profess not to care who rules in Anglo-Canada, but in fact they prefer the Tories because they think Tory rule makes the BQ more popular in Quebec. But if the Tories are going to drag Canada into a depression with their pre-Keynesian policies, the BQ will have to react, by supporting a Liberal-NDP coalition.

  40. LOL I honestly think that 3 is too short and 4 is too long.

    Elections could be held on the last Saturday in March and then, 3.5 years later, the last Saturday in September?

  42. Adam

    The redistribution is irrelevant, the Libs vote in outer metro Brisbane is suffering from demographic change, probably more than any other place in Australia.

    I suggest 2% swings to Labor in these type of seats is almost certain in SE Qld (barring some areas of the Gold Coast).

  43. I agree 0.26% makes Dutton look gone but considering the last election was an outstanding result for Rudd and it would be hard to see him improve.

    Actually not just in 1929 but also the 1890s bust were made worst by Government cutting spending rather than attempting to use there position to generate growth.

  44. beemer, yes that’s true. That’s what all governments did before Keynes solved the question of how to deal with the cyclical nature of capitalism, thus saving the system from itself. Only truly backward and stupid Tories still reject his recommendations – like Harper and the Australian Liberal Party.

  45. Labor received 50.44% of the TPP vote in Qld, if anyone thinks they will not do better next federal election, well counselling may be available. 😛

  46. COAG added to the funding of Health and Education today which will go a long way towards addressing the underfunding of hospitals during the Howard era.

    [Federal-state relations have taken a “strong step forward” with an extra $15.1 billion in funding for the states over the next five years, says Prime Minister Kevin Rudd .

    Premiers and chief ministers appeared pleased with the result, nutted out after a meeting of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) on Saturday, and improving on the commonwealth’s original offer of $11.1 billion.

    The deal means $64.4 billion in funding over five years for health and hospitals, an increase of $22.4 billion over the previous agreement.]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/5179469/coag-agrees-151b-new-funding/

  48. The next election is two years away. In the current volatile economic and political circumstances, speculating about what will happen in 2010 is just hot air. Jim Scullin was pretty popular in his first year too.

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