Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 59.5-40.5, up from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Primary votes are Labor 50.5 per cent (up 1.5), Coalition 35.5 (down 0.5) and Greens 7.5 (down 1). Elsewhere:

• The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.

• A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green‘s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.

• Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.

• In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. Nothing wrong with th principal in th Opposition Leaders 3rd paragraph Question is do th allegations hav substance or ar they mud raking After dr Death episode one should be cautous

  2. Adam @ 94
    Not sure if any of this helps, but:
    Scotland Island is mostly bush with several hundred houses. It used to be a bit of a haunt for ne’er do wells and down-and-outers but it has been gentrified. It does not have shops or industries but it does have an artists group, which might explain the high labour vote. I seem to recall that there are no cars on the island, which might explain a high green vote.

  3. steve @ 100

    The last paragraph is extraordinarily short-sighted and stupid. Imagine senior public servants trotting off to the Opposition Shadow Ministers for a chat over a cup of tea with a quoir or so of briefing notes. It is not a ‘democratic right’. It is a recipe for failed governance. If they ever get back in, it is the sort of statement that will come back to bite them in the bum.

    ‘Yes Prime Minister, I gave the Shadow Treasurer the budget briefing notes and Finance’s figures; yesterday, actually. Well, it is my democratic right to give it to the Shadow Treasurer, and I believe, the timing is up to me as well. You might be pleased to know that I have made some amendments as a result of her advice. BTW, you might like to know that the Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister is not happy with the direction the Minister for Foreign Affairs is taking in the negotiations with China on the free trade deal, nor with the highly sensitive and top secret Afghanistan War exit discussions that you are having with President Obama. The Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs has some suggestions to make and advice to give.’

  4. juliem

    Interesting link. Fancy a swan trashing a bishop! Problems, problems. Looks like Mr Teamwork has been given his instructions by the OO. Problems, problems.

    It looks like julieb (heh, heh) is gone for all money. They will have to give her a senior portfolio to keep the WA Division sweet. Probably the easiest thing at this stage is a simple swap between julieb and joe the plumber of depths. Problem is, joeh is yesterday’s man. Unless of course, peterc fancies a re-run? Not yet, I should think. Problems, problems.

    But then of course there is the issue of the Young Turks, which means that peterd should get a run. But I can’t imagine the Howard Fud Faction giving in to the Young Turks without a fight. Problems, problems.

    If he is smart, Mr Teamwork will have to give some serious thought to re-arranging the bickies in the Christmas stockings. He could use the julieb pressure to drop a few of the other non-performers and promote a few of the Young Turks. But the Fud Faction will not like that. Problems, problems.

    Then there is the solid non-performing rump in the Nat Fuds. There is some un-used talent in the outer reaches of the Lib back benches who could do much better than the Nat Fuds, but the Nat Fuds understand troughs better than anyone. Problems, problems.

  5. [The last paragraph is extraordinarily short-sighted and stupid. Imagine senior public servants trotting off to the Opposition Shadow Ministers for a chat over a cup of tea with a quoir or so of briefing notes. It is not a ‘democratic right’. It is a recipe for failed governance. If they ever get back in, it is the sort of statement that will come back to bite them in the bum.]

    There is a big possibility that the Privileges and Ethics Committee of the Queensland Parliament will take an interest in this latest display of contempt for the institution of Parliament expressed in the response by McArdle who just happens to be a member with form.

    It is the same McArdle who has a track record of failure of compliance as compliance officer for a law firm who was involved in a mortgage scam preying on senior citizens on the Sunshine Coast prior to becoming a parliamentarian.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/12/2160613.htm

  6. Well, I don’t know of any CEOs on 2 year contracts, and I’ve appointed/reviewed at least four. Standard CEO contracts are (surprise!) 3 years with an almost guaranteed 2 years added on to this. (They also get paid a lot more than the average politician). Yes, they have annual reviews – I would argue that most pollies have daily ones.
    I would expect that the quality of MPs would go down. You are not going to give up a secure position for one which can be lost each year. I know that the various constitutional rulings on ’employees of the Crown’ has made it much harder to find candidates for this reason – people are not going to quit their job on the possibility only that they will be elected to parliament.
    It will also lead to ‘MP churning’. It takes at least 6 months (and more like a year) for anyone to really get their head around any new position, let alone something so complex as governance. Using local councils as an example, I would say that most councillors are only getting the hang of it at the end of their first three year term (and also that it takes at least three years to make any significant changes). So, under an annual election scenario, you’d have only just got a grasp of the job when you’d be up for election again. (I accept that councillors are only part time, but have also worked closely with MPs and would make much the same observation).

  7. Paul Kelly comes out firing against Julia’s IR legislation:

    [A bizarre fate has befallen Australia. At the precise time it faces a global crisis, a business downturn and rising unemployment, the Rudd Government is recasting workplace relations to increase trade union powers, inhibit employment and impose new costs on employers.

    The Freehills brief on the new bill says: “FWA will have a much more important role than is currently the case, particularly in setting and adjusting minimum wages, facilitating bargaining for enterprise agreements, the expanded unfair-dismissal jurisdiction and dispute resolution under modern awards and enterprise agreements.” ]

    Well that’s not surprising given the rumour that Freehills wrote most of the Work Choices legislation. Kinda like getting the mother in law of your first wife to comment on the beauty and intelligence of your second.

  8. Adam,
    If you go back over the last three decades, Scotland Island almost always recorded the highest Australian Democrat of any booth in NSW, and often outpolled Labor in that booth. I note at the 2007 Federal election, the Greens outpolled both Labor and Liberal. It’s an island, has no roads, has no cars, explains everything.

  9. While Julia is the obvious choice if something happened to the Ruddster, what would happen if they both went down in a plane? Who would take over? Swan would be political suicide and I really can’t think who else Labor would choose as PM. Tanner or Combet come across as the most likely to lead the ship.

  10. Dont know much about Gittins but as far as i know Kelly is a political commentator, and not an economic analyst. Anyone know more of his history and quals??

  11. They don’t call this coming period the “silly season” for nothing. The main political commentators in the media go on holidays or drop down a gear, and second stringers are pushed to the fore. Leadership queries are raised because they allow endless speculation with minimal factual backup. With the polling figures we are seeing the person most in the gun should be Turnbull. His poor performance is only camouflaged by comparison with Nelson who set a very low bar. The best way of avoiding being eaten by the press wolves is to throw them a carcass in order to distract them.

    Julie Bishop has just been thrown from Malcolms sleigh.

  12. From the Gittins article:

    “Only someone who regarded the role of unions as fundamentally illegitimate could worry about this. ”

    That to me sums up Kellys approach and the that of the Fibs.

  13. Seems like they don’t wait for plane crashes in Canada.

    [Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper has deferred an upcoming confidence vote that his Government was set to lose, to avoid a power grab or snap elections.

    Opposition parties had said earlier they would vote on Monday to oust the ruling Conservatives unless Harper rushed an economic stimulus package to help Canadians facing a predicted recession.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/29/2433266.htm?section=justin

  14. Tom i just gave a Blue tongue Lizzard a saucer of cat food (they love it, come in the cat door and help themselves the buggers) then watched your video lol

  15. “Imagine senior public servants trotting off to the Opposition Shadow Ministers for a chat over a cup of tea with a quoir or so of briefing notes.”

    That is an illogical partisan Labor argument Th only person making th crazy sugestion about passing on “briefing notes” to Opposition members is you

    “Briefing notes” and th like ar covered by ethical & protocols (and legal) requirements covering Public servants inter- actions with ANY 3rd Partys , with heavy sanctions for P S offenders …..and regarding offending MP’s there’s ‘House’ Priviledge Commitee problams

    There is todate no evidense this serious line has been crossed at all What so far has occurred apparently is P S generic chatter pro a new Cairns Hospital , that has always happened and always will ALL Govts hate it and ALL Oppositions including Labor oppositions) love it ..which provide general info

    Suggestions that Govts can forse an Opposition to then reveal ‘sources’ of generic leaked info is foolish and would kill off all ‘whistleblowers’ , then a secret executive… These ar issues of balanse and not crossing lines but then in AWB Scandal on your argument we would never hav learnt of th AWB scandal at all …and so your arguement against generic info disclosure is not democracy at all , its is extreme and would lead to extreme

    Whats occuring in Q’d is a healthy debate both on policy and politcs about whether a new Cairns hospital vs refurbishing th old one , and its this context you’d partisanly missed

  16. 122 – Vera, it seems the conservative side of politics just do not know how to fix the mess they have created. I wonder how Key is going in NZ.

  17. Hello Vera , can you clarify

    “i just gave a Blue tongue Lizzard a saucer of cat food (they love it, come in the cat door and help themselves the buggers) then watched your video”

    who watched th video , you , or th Blue tongue Lizzard , or th cats , or all of you

  18. [Dont know much about Gittins but as far as i know Kelly is a political commentator, and not an economic analyst.]

    Sorry, I thought the answer was obvious.

    Gittins knows far about everything, especially economics, than Kelly.

  19. Hello ron how ya been keepin’

    Very fine tanks Vera , and especialy now that I am mostly away from th fake glitz of US politcs and its razmattaz ‘spin’ , and back to th land of ‘oz’ politcs where those that spin we can simply say in aussie style….bullsh.t…. put up sense

    Glad to see you hav Ted so well trained , but don’t let him watch Malcolm it might upset

  20. http://news.bn.gs/article.php?story=20081126183542969

    [Seven countries, including two Caribbean islands, signed a document today paving the way for the establishment of a single currency among them, Cuban state media reported today.

    The political leaders of Venezuela, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Cuba and Dominica issued a final Declaration on Wednesday that gives a green light to the creation of a single currency, called the Sucre, that will initially circulate virtually, Granma said.]

    That seems to have gone unreported.

    Should’ve called it the “People’s Peso”.

  21. No 109

    A rumour is not fact.

    Kelly’s concerns are perfectly legitimate. Why should a union be able to gain entry to businesses in which there are no union members?

    Gillard has been struck off my list as a reasonable ALP minister with this junk.

  22. [Gillard has been struck off my list as a reasonable ALP minister with this junk.]
    Firstly she would have never won you over.
    Secondly, that is music to my ears. So no more “Workchoices lite then?

  23. If the Libs are so sure unions are monsters in disguise why don’t they have a policy of total eradication? Oh, wait they did, Workchoices but the public didn’t believe the unions were bad.

  24. Poor Malcolm. The highest ranking Lib in the land agrees with Rudd over him.

    [The country’s only Liberal premier has suggested federal Labor shouldn’t be blamed if the commonwealth budget goes into deficit.
    “This is a difficult time to be running commonwealth or state treasuries,” Mr Barnett said before attending the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting.

    “Whether it’s commonwealth or state budgets, the deficit is driven more by falling revenue than rising expenditure.

    “There’s not much you can do about that.”

    Mr Barnett said Australia, like the world, was in a “fairly perilous financial position”.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/labour-budget-gets-backing-from-lib-mp-20081129-6nah.html

  25. No 140

    More obfuscation and avoidance of my question.

    I’ll ask again: why should unions have a right of entry into workplaces in which there are no union members?

  26. 141 vera – there you have the difference between being a responsible government and a reckless opposition. Barnett knows that if he criticises the federal government for going into deficit it will rebound in spades if his state budget goes into deficit as well. He not silly

  27. The real question is why shouldn’t a union be able to talk to non union members? They can’t make you do what you don’t want to do.
    The only conclusion I can come to is that you think they are monsters and need eradication. The vast majority of unions and union members are far from the monsters you seem to think they are. But then for anyone who sees reds under the bed as you do I guess it is not surprising you’re carrying on this way.

  28. GP 142 re unions

    When I was a young fella I had a job in a metal foundry, hot hard work at the best of times, but in this decidedly Dickensian factory it was also a very dangerous job. Metal pours would explode with frightening regularity, the safety equipment was crap or non-existent, and the workforce had little or no training in safe work practices or first aid. A few of us tried to get a union to visit the shop, the management went ape, sending out senior onside workers to talk us down, saying the unions would ruin the place etc etc. I eventually left the place after injuring myself, it was just too dangerous, but at least myself and a workmate were able to exercise OUR RIGHT to speak to a union rep just before I left. I’m not sure what happened, but I hope that a union got in to tackle safety and health concerns that plagued this factory. That is why unions need the right to access POTENTIAL members (in scheduled break times). While there are a lot of safe and well run workplaces, there are still dangerous and unhealthy workplaces all over this nation that are run by unscrupulous management, and as long as these places still exist unions need access to see if ANY (not necessarily all) of the workers feel that they could improve their workplace through a relationship with a union. Have you ever worked in a dangerous workplace GP? Have you ever been exploited by management? Have you ever wondered every morning before going to work what sort of injury you might pick up today? Do you have any idea about every day workplaces at all? If you did you wouldn’t need to pose this question about unions. And yes I know, some unions have been dodgy and don’t deserve the name, but by and large my REAL EXPERIENCE with unions has been positive. A long as we have profit driven labour exploitation, we have a role for honest unions in this country.

    ps – if I haven’t made myself absolutely clear here, the short version is you do not know what you are talking about.

  29. That’s a good story.

    Once you realise that union’s are naught but a collective of workers working together to represent their interests, any scaremongering looks really pathetic.

  30. GP – last year, in this area, all the supermarket trolley collectors (mostly mentally impaired) were sacked overnight and replaced by others whom everyone assumed from their skin colour etc were Africans.
    The company stated that they had replaced the former trolley collectors with a cheaper workforce.
    It was discovered on examination that the sacked trolley workers had been paid well under the award for some years, so if the new guys were cheaper then it was fair to assume they were being paid even less.
    However because (i) they were African, with little or no English, and of unknown origing and (ii) no union official could approach them at the workplace and (iii) they were housed in company housing and so no union member could approach them after hours, it has been impossible to establish ANYTHING about the employment status of these people.
    We don’t know what they’re being paid, if they’re on a contract, what their working conditions are, nothing.
    If a union was allowed to enter the workforce, all of this could be sorted out in a couple of hours. As it is, it’s taking a series of court cases which are still a long way from resolution and will probably only address the concerns of the sacked employees, leaving the present guys in limbo.
    Other cases I know of involve seasonal fruit pickers. Again, refugees – they are loaded on to buses in Melbourne, taken to an orchard somewhere in the middle of nowhere and left there. They have no idea where they are, can’t speak the language, have no idea of what they should be paid or what their rights are. When unions have got access to these properties, they have found these workers in sub standard housing (I mean dangerous to human health).
    In both cases, although unions have tried to help, there has been noone else to help these workers. Without the limited aid given to them by unions they would be even further exploited.
    (Disclaimer: I am not a unionist, or at present a member of a union, and I believe unions have too much power in the ALP. But I recognise the reason for their existence and the good work they do).

  31. GP, the top end of town have their unions what do you think the AMA is? what about the various business unions that underpinned Howard’s anti union ads? every group of people has the odd bully boy from the school yard up, unions are no different but Howard’s ads depicting burly bovva boys turning the lights out are nothing but a comical parady to scare the cattle–it didnt work obviously.
    GP, the checkout chick may be in a union, the fireys, the ambos, the nurses, the cops on the beat, the chemist, the teachers, the bus drivers and the folk next door are probably in their respective unions, normal people like us, i dont see any of them swaggering around in Tshirt and braces threatening the little shop owner trying to make a crust, would you ask any of them if they were in a union before accepting their help? i dont think so!
    golly gosh, i think it must be a bit crowded under your bed with the reds ,the illegal immigrants, the terrorists, your spare cash AND the unions, whoops i forgot those pesky labor voters who seem to be blocking your hero Malcolm from his rightful place in the scheme of things.

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