Happy anniversary

I have written a piece on the Rudd government’s first-year polling record relative to that of the Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke and Howard governments, which is freely available in Crikey. Elsewhere:

• For those with ready access to academic journals, the latest edition of the Australian Journal of Politics and History features a look at the role of the Senate in the Australian political system by Stanley Bach, lately of the Congressional Research Service of the US Library of Congress, and an examination of conscience voting in the federal parliament by John Warhurst of the Australian National University. The Australian Journal of Political Science has an overview of the introduction of proportional representation to the Victorian upper house at the 2006 election, by Nick Economou of Monash University.

• The Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission has concluded there will be no state redistribution before the 2010 election, at least on the basis of “current information”. The present boundaries have been in place since the 2002 election. Hat tip to Tom the first and best. UPDATE: Further props to Tom for noting below that the determination rests on a definition of a “general election” that does not count the 2002 election, as it was conducted on the pre-reform regime when only half the Legislative Council faced election – perhaps contrary to the drafters’ intention.

• The Western Australian branch of the Australian Democrats has been deregistered after declining to challenge the electoral commissioner’s determination that it did not have 500 members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

322 comments on “Happy anniversary”

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  1. [Most serious economists agree that will require a stimulus that might push the budget into deficit for a year or two. So be it. Or, we can believe Malcom Turnbull and stay in surplus, while accepting recession, higher unemployment and lower wages. Option 1 please.]
    And this is what’s going to do the Libs in at the next election. Malcolm will have to tell us what projects and programs set up by this government in order to encourage economic activity will be slashed and burned in order to create the surplus he so desires. What extra jobs will go under the Libs? What health and education budgets will have to be cut?
    Add to that the dangers in bringing back WC and the government will have a potent mixture to fire back at the Libs.

  2. Sky are on the mid day news talking about the India terrorist attacks as you would expect. But instead of talking with government officials, they had Downer on air for 10 minutes. Couldn’t they find someone in the active DFAT to talk to? Sheeessshh …..

  3. I think implementing a paid maternity scheme would be the best thing the government could do politically.

    Imagine at the next election they could say “During the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression, the Rudd Government secured jobs and growth by investing in infrastructure and implemented Australia’s first national paid maternity system.”

    The Liberals managed to do neither of those things during the biggest economic boom since the post-war era.

  6. Smith is probably involved in the trade negotiations. There was a promise at the G20 summit that all countries would work towards completing the Doha round trade negotiations this year. That means quite a lot of trade and foreign ministers are burning the midnight oil right now.

  7. [The federal coalition has not ruled out supporting a cut in the GST rate.

    Its economic advisor, Professor Henry Ergas, is one expert suggesting Australia follow the lead of the British government which this week cut the rate of its value-added tax to stimulate a flagging economy.

    Prominent businessman Solomon Lew has also backed a cut in the GST rate, saying it should be halved to five per cent.]

    http://news.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-not-ruling-out-backing-gst-cut-20081127-6jd4.html

    I so hope that happens. Not only do I find the GST an abhorrent and inequitable economic policy, but winding it back is another way of dismantling Howard’s so called achievements.

  8. [The Greens have called for political parties to pay for the cost of by-elections when MPs retire early.

    South Australian Greens MP Mark Parnell said on Thursday he would introduce a bill into state parliament to force parties to cover the cost of early polls.]

    http://news.theage.com.au/national/greens-byelection-costs-transparency-20081127-6jc8.html

    Positive step, in my opinion. Also well thought out. Includes interesting caveats:

    [But it would allow for some exceptions, such as death, major illness or where a member resigned to take on significant family responsibilities, such as caring for a disabled child.

    It would also allow parties to opt out of paying the $150,000 to $200,000 bill, but would then prevent them from contesting the poll.]

  9. I think the Libs were arguing a temporary drop in the GST. I would hate to be the government that increases it again. Not a good idea.

  10. Oz 207

    I disagree on the GST. It actually helps equity, because many people on large incomes from investments but low taxable incomes still have to pay it. This includes some pensioners who, with no means tests, can be millionaires these days. The most harshly taxed individuals are middle income earners on PAYE and students or others with several part time jobs who only get to claim one tax free threshold. GST income allowed PAYE tax scales to be adjusted, and rightly so. I’d agree to a reduction to the GST IFF other tax anomalies were removed at the same time, such as tax free investment income and family trusts. Kerry Packer pboaste about paying no tax, but he couldn’t avoid the GST.

  11. I should add I’m not in favor of raising the GST – just no reduction unless it goes with a review of the whole tax mix.

    I’d also like to see some State taxes removed that were supposed to be gone after the GST, but in some cases that was never followed through. Property title transfer fees would be a good example, which financially penalise those who must move for work. Here in SA the various first home buyers grants do little more than compensate people for the extortionate rates of property taxes. Buy a home in Adelaide and you pay almost double the stamp duty you pay in Brisbane or Perth.

  15. I was strongly anti GST when it was first introduced, but now I’m a true believer. What with all the traditional tax avoidance measures that have been available to the wealthy, plus the additional measures that Howard introduced such as non taxable income for over 60’s, the only people paying tax will be those in middle income families in their expensive years of life paying mortgages and educating kids. Income tax has been made to be very unfair.
    The principle of the GST is unfair, but at least it is a tax the wealthy have to pay. It should be increased to 20% or more and reliance on income tax should be decreased.

  16. [the only people paying tax will be those in middle income families in their expensive years of life paying mortgages and educating kids.]
    But if such families have enough kids they get all their tax back through Family Tax benefit.

    The REAL people that get slugged are singles and couples without kids. They pay income tax and GST but have no way of getting any back from Centerwank.
    [The principle of the GST is unfair, but at least it is a tax the wealthy have to pay. It should be increased to 20% or more and reliance on income tax should be decreased.]
    Woah, no thank you. the GST is regressive, income tax is somewhat progressive.

    I agree with you that now we have the GST we are stuck with it. But I don’t think it should ever been increased.

    What should be increased is the tax free threshold. It should be doubled instead of decreasing or cutting the highest tax bracket.

  17. Oh dear, it seems Julie Bishop may have asked Brian Burke for advice re entering politics.

    [SHADOW Treasurer Julie Bishop has ”categorically denied” claims she asked Brian Burke for advice when she was contemplating entering federal politics.

    Veteran radio talkback host Bob Maumill made the allegations on the 6PR website today.

    Maumill said he became aware of the situation during a telephone conversation he had with his the disgraced fromer premier, who he is mates with.

    Maumill said he demanded to know the nature of the conversation.

    “Well, said Burkie, she asked my advice on whether to run as an independent for the seat held by Allan Rocher or seek Liberal Party endorsement ,” he said

    “How often did you to speak, I asked?

    “Only three phone calls, no big deal,” he said.

    A spokesperson for the federal Curtin MP refuted the claims as “a nonsense and total rubbish”.

    “Julie has never asked Brian Burke for advice on anything,” she said.

    “Nor has she asked anyone for advice as to whether to run as an independent. Julie was pre-selected by the Liberals to run against an independent.

    “These allegations are defamatory and we are in discussions with 6PR about them.

    “At no time before this blog went up, which was authorised by the station, did they call our office or contact Julie.

    “Instead, they have put up this blog which is highly defamatory and false.” ]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24715336-2761,00.html

  18. YAY! Christopher Pyne was just warned during Question Time.

    This gives me the democratic right to send my local member an abusive email!

  19. How can it be “highly defamatory” just to speak to Brian Burke about entering Parliament? I know he’s a creep but he can give out advice. Julie Bishop is a bit sensitive at the moment.

  23. Income tax can be made fairer by taxing trusts, inheritance and superannuation income.
    Reform of the excise system so that the amount charged is more inline with the costs to governments (e.g. a volumetric alcohol tax, higher petrol and tobacco taxes) and adding some over used products that cause harm to society like sugar, salt and artificial food additives. Also a food processing tax should be considered.
    Then there would be no more need for the GST.

  24. [YAY! Christopher Pyne was just warned during Question Time.

    This gives me the democratic right to send my local member an abusive email!]
    NO WAY! 2 minutes after I sent my abusive email Pyne gets kicked for a frivolous Point of Order!

    Of course this means I can send another abusive email!

  25. In my post at 183 I meant Albert Park (or Prahran) would have to cross the river for it to make a difference to overpopulation in Melbourne. A cross Yarra inner-city electorate is unlikely.

  26. I gathered thats what you meant when you remarked crossing the yarra.

    It has been done federally, for many years Hawthorn was joined with Richmond in the seat of Yarra then held by Jim Cains, that seemed to have been the case for a good 20+ years. and of course both Williamstown and Port Melbourne use to both be in Melbourne Ports.

    The City of Melbourne crosses the Yarra to include Southbank and the domain part or South Yarra, both normally vote Liberal which may strengthen the ALP’s position in the seat of Melbourne.

  27. Pyne is my member too. ShowsOn, tell him that a number of Sturt residents are concerned that his unrully behaviour is trashing the reputation of our quiet locale. Nothing abusive mind – we don’t want to start behaving like Liberal staffers in Lindsay 🙂

  28. [Pyne is my member too. ShowsOn, tell him that a number of Sturt residents are concerned that his unrully behaviour is trashing the reputation of our quiet locale. Nothing abusive mind – we don’t want to start behaving like Liberal staffers in Lindsay]
    Here it is! A real zinger!
    [Dear Mr Pyne,

    Today during Question Time you were warned by The Speaker. In future, please refrain from acting like a child while in such an important forum; it is unbecoming of your position as the Member for Sturt.

    I mention this as one of your loyal constituents.

    Thank you for your time,]
    I mentioned I was loyal; I didn’t say I’d EVER vote for him.

    (You know, like Stephen Colbert, he endorsed Obama, but didn’t vote for him)

  29. [This from Samantha Maiden – “ASSISTANT Treasurer Chris Bowen has refused to rule out a proposal to cut the GST – placing him at odds with Treasurer Wayne Swan.”]
    Once again “refusing to rule out” is interpreted as meaning “ruling in”. What a croc.

  31. ShowsOn

    Very good. Something like this might hit the mark too:
    “This is no way for a member of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to behave!”. Frankly I would have expected this sort of thing from the socialists and their union thugs.

    Dissappointed of Beaumont

  32. [Once again “refusing to rule out” is interpreted as meaning “ruling in”. What a croc.]
    It’s called Flying Spaghetti Monster journalism. If it isn’t false, it must be true!

  33. I am again reminded of Derek and Clive, when Peter Cook wrote to Margaret Thatcher complaining that he had “the horn”:

    I was expecting a reasoned reply of some kind. What do I get? F*cking letter coming back saying, “Mrs Thatcher has read your inquiry with interest, but it will not be part of official Conservative Party policy, though we are sympathetic to your cause”. Well, in my view she hadn’t even read the f*cking thing …

  34. If he’d been from my electorate, I’d be reminding him that that was no way for a member of the Opposition, repeat, the Opposition, to behave.

  35. ShowsOn

    Next time you should send an email saying that you are sick of being dismissed by patronising politicians who use brief platitudes instead of addressing the concerns raised, and that ss far as you are concerned, the phrase “Thanks for the feedback” is an incitement to justifiable homicide.

    See if you get the same message back then.

  36. [“This is no way for a member of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to behave!”. Frankly I would have expected this sort of thing from the socialists and their union thugs.

    Dissappointed of Beaumont]
    Solid gold! This would work!

  37. [If he’d been from my electorate, I’d be reminding him that that was no way for a member of the Opposition, repeat, the Opposition, to behave.]
    Yeah, but sent as a HTML email with “Opposition” written in 52 point font.
    [Next time you should send an email saying that you are sick of being dismissed by patronising politicians who use brief platitudes instead of addressing the concerns raised, and that ss far as you are concerned, the phrase “Thanks for the feedback” is an incitement to justifiable homicide.]
    Good idea! But I followed it up with:
    [Thank you for your reply.

    Ironically 2 minutes after I sent the mail you were kicked from the chamber.

    Such is life.]

    Regarding the M.P.I. debate now on, you know you have lost if Kevin Andrews gets a chance to speak, let alone speak 3rd!

  38. ShowsOn @ 212/213,

    I was watching here at home and said virtually the same thing at the same time. “Sick, overcome with emotion or out of breath …..”

  39. OH NO! He has done it! Pyne has made me feel sorry for him! He replied to my reply with:
    [Indeed.

    Christopher]

    That is the reply of a guy completely stuck in the doldrums of opposition.

    That’s the reply of a guy who hasjust realised what everyone else has known for years; he will never make it to cabinet.

  40. ShowsOn @ 228,

    😀 ….. you are in rare form today 😉 ….

    [
    I mentioned I was loyal; I didn’t say I’d EVER vote for him.
    ]

    I will remind myself of this line when I might have occasion in WA to reference my sitting member. Both Federal and State for Ellenbrook are Libs …….

  41. [I was watching here at home and said virtually the same thing at the same time. “Sick, overcome with emotion or out of breath …..”]
    I was listening on the radio, which made it a bit hard to work out. But I think he is just sick.

  42. [I will remind myself of this line when I might have occasion in WA to reference my sitting member. Both Federal and State for Ellenbrook are Libs …….]

    Indeed :-(but at least your local Ellenbrook Ward Councillors are good Labor People 🙂

  43. [I will remind myself of this line when I might have occasion in WA to reference my sitting member. Both Federal and State for Ellenbrook are Libs …….]
    Well, we have to make our own fun!

    The thing is, I spent a few hours on election day last year standing next to Pyne handing out Labor ‘how to votes’.

    I annoyed him to most by encouraging people to vote against WorkChoices.

    There was a 10% swing at the booth I worked at, but it still wasn’t enough.

  44. Socrates @ 231,

    [
    “This is no way for a member of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to behave!”. Frankly I would have expected this sort of thing from the socialists and their union thugs.
    ]

    I don’t watch Parliament every day, wish I could. But speaking of “thugs” though, what the h*** gives with Joe Hockey today?????? Does he always speak so badly of Kevin or was today an exception?

  45. ShowsOn @ 241, jet lag tends to do that to you if you don’t give your body time to rest up a bit. Betcha Kevin is going to get a nice sleepin this weekend 😀 …….

  46. ShowsOn

    I met Pyne once when he visited the hospital. I could barely resist the urge to run from the room. It was like being Maced into all orifices simultaneously.

  47. i believe rudd was just puffed after running to the chamber he arrived just in time after the speaker had sat down the member for cowper and hockey pointed to him with an angry face so i’m guessing that he was just puffed as he seemed to improve

  49. [I am all too aware you and your Party were (are) staunchly wedded to WorkChoices-type workplace conditions, so do I take it you will agree that employers have the right to expect that employees give of their absolute utmost at all times.

    As such, being your employer (in a manner of speaking), I was disappointed in your unruly behaviour in your Parliament House workplace, and in the fact you could only come up with desultory one-sentence responses to my serious emails of concern.

    As your employer I expect better, and ask that you inform me why you are not performing to the same high standard you expect other employees in their workplaces to do.]

  50. Oh come on, Pyne loves the theatre of a parliamentary hurl! He’s a dandy, remember. A political narcissist. The more attention he gets the better. And the snickering bully boys he leaves behind (Hockey, Abbott, Robb and, in an honourary capacity, Bishop) all give him his due …

    (From the OED: Dandy: A person who is superlatively fine, neat, or dainty; also neat, trim, or ‘tidy’ in form or action.)

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