UPDATE (29/11/08): For inside dope on progressive counting, Ben Raue of The Tally Room will feed through results provided by his contacts in the Greens. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews might be good for news from the other side of the fence. The Poll Bludger Investigations Unit is also at work in comments.
Local government is the proverbial bridge too far as far as my own commentary is concerned, but here by popular demand is a thread for reader discussion of the imminent Victorian council elections. I gather that most of these are held by post with a deadline of Friday, November 28 for receipt of ballots, but a few holdouts (Banyule, Brimbank, Greater Dandenong, Glen Eira, Hobsons Bay, Knox, Moreland, Port Phillip and my old home of Yarra) do it the old-fashioned way the following day (see the Victorian Electoral Commission for more detail).
Not sure how much success I’ll have with this, but it’s a worth a try. Readers who know or care about a particular local government contest are invited to write a brief, non-partisan overview in comments. If it meets my specifications I will give it a run up here, while keeping an ongoing invitation to other commenters to suggest additions or amendments. To get the ball rolling, I’ll start with everything I can tell you about the race for the lord mayoralty.
Melbourne City Council: After serving two four-year terms as lord mayor, John So is not seeking a third. The candidates to watch appear to be former state Liberal leader Robert Doyle; Adam Bandt, the Greens candidate who came within swinging distance of Lindsay Tanner in the seat of Melbourne at last year’s federal election; current councillor Catherine Ng; Will Fowles, who I’m told is from the Labor Left; Peter McMullin, former Geelong mayor and Labor election candidate linked to the party’s Right faction (although his running mate is the none too Labor-friendly Tim Wilson, director of the Institute of Public Affairs’ free trade unit); and Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research fame. The latter has helpfully furnished us with his very own opinion poll, which shows Doyle well ahead of Bandt on first preferences with Ng in third place. Second preferences are apparently set to produce a close race for second between Bandt, Ng and Morgan, with none posing a threat to Doyle. Bandt appears not to have done well out of preference recommendations, including those of candidates linked to Labor.
Darebin City Council: Three wards electing three councillors. Hat tip to Martin B and Caroline Church for the following.
Rucker ward: There are two Labor candidates, two Greens (Trent McCarthy and Helen Brown) and five others, only one of whom has much of an independent local profile – Darren Lewin-Hill. The ward is the stronghold of the Labor Unity sub-faction associated with state MPs Theo Theophanous and Nazih Elasmar, and is not being contested by the rival sub-faction of Michael Leighton and Robin Scott, the former and current members for Preston. At corresponding booths in the 2007 federal election, Labor polled 49 per cent of the primary vote, the Greens 31 per cent and Liberal 16 per cent. If those numbers are reflective of this vote, the result should be straightforward: one Labor and one Greens candidate will be comfortably elected, with the third seat going to the other Labor candidate or, less likely, Lewin-Hill if he can gather enough Labor preferences and votes from Liberals.
Cazaly ward: There are 17 candidates, nine of whom identify as Labor members (4 Unity, 4 Socialist Left, one unaligned), plus one Greens, one “conservative independent” (allegedly a former Labor member with a decidedly non-conservative activist history) and six other independents. The Labor candidates include incumbents Vince Fontana, a former mayor and member of the Leighton-Scott faction, and Alison Donohue, who is also receiving Leighton-Scott preferences but is apparently not directly linked. Haphazard preference arrangements suggests their proliferation might be down not to dummy candidates, as one might suspect, but to poor party organisation. Donohue and two other candidates, Ben Morgan and Joe Cutri, seem to have fared the best of the nine on preferences. The corresponding federal booth results were Labor 60 per cent, Liberal 20 per cent and Greens 16 per cent, suggesting Greens candidate Mohammed El-leissy will have to rely on Labor fragmentation to get a look-in.
La Trobe ward: Even more candidates than Cazaly ward, with better organisation lending greater credence to suspicions of dummy candidates. No fewer than 16 candidates recommend some permutation of preferences for Gaetano Greco and Tim Laurence of the Labor Socialist Left, while five candidates recommend preferences for the Unity ticket of Stanley Chiang (another associated of Leighton and Scott) and Tania Sharkas. Also on the receiving end of most Socialist Left preference arranagements is Melissa Salata of the Theophanous-Elasmar sub-faction of Labor Unity, who is hostile to the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. That leaves only the Greens candidate, Sara Scally, and another who recommends a preference to her. The campaign between the Socialist Left and Unity has been bitter: Laurence took internal party action against Chiang (which was dismissed), and there were counter-claims that Laurence broke party rules with his material. The federal election booth numbers here were Labor 62 per cent, Liberal 23 per cent and Greens 8 per cent, suggesting the issue is likely to be how the three seats divide between Socialist Left and Unity.
Banyule City Council: Consists of seven wards in Melbourne’s inner north-east. Olympia ward: Incumbent Anthony Carbines is chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike (and the son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines), and thus unquestionably aligned to Labor. Beale ward: Incumbent Wayne Phillips was the Liberal member for Eltham from 1992 to 2002, when he became one of dozens of victims of the first Brackslide. Ibbot ward: Incumbent Tom Melican is said to be an independent. Hawdon ward: Vacant ward being contested by two Labor members, Sandra MacNeil and Martin Appleby, along with an independent and a Green. Grimshaw ward: Labor incumbent Dean Sherriff is being contested by two fellow party members, Frank Beard and Jess Paul. Sherriff’s career on council was saved in April 2007 when a conviction for criminal damage was overturned on appeal, but he retains a conviction for assault relating to the same incident. Griffin ward: Incumbent Jenny Mulholland challenged by Steve Walpole, a Labor member, and Dora Bergman, a one-time running mate of Mulholland. Bakewell ward: A rematch between Liberal incumbent Peter McKenna and Labor member Michael Paul, following a very close result in 2005. Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews reports that Greens candidate Ian Kirk has raised eyebrows by giving McKenna his second preference. A Greens supporter in comments claims this was in response to Paul’s attitude in preference negotiations, but the Labor camp insists discussions were entirely cordial until Kirk advised he would preference McKenna on the grounds that he was a “serious candidate”.
Glen Eira City Council: Glen Eira has gone against the prevailing trend by changing from postal to attendance voting. This has apparently discouraged dummy candidates, resulting in 26 nominations compared with 61 in 2005. The council consists of three wards which each elect three councillors, with seven sitting councillors seeking re-election. The assessments that follow come direct from Winston in comments. Camden ward: Michael Lipshutz and Helen Whiteside are standing for re-election and appear to be working together with the backing of the Liberal Party – although neither are members. Other candidates include local businessman Frank Penhalluriack (who actually lives in Kew) and a residents group ticket headed by Peter Blight. Lipshutz is a prominent member of the Jewish community and with over one third of the ward Jewish should have no problems getting re-elected. Penhalluriack has number one position on the voting card which will help him. Lipshutz, Whiteside and Penhalluriack are spending big and will probably be elected. Rosstown ward: Nine candidates. Three sitting councillors standing: Margaret Esakoff, Steven Tang and Rob Spaulding. This is the only ward with a Greens candidate – Neil Pilling – who could be the wild card as he is getting some flow of preferences. Tucker ward: Ten candidates, two sitting councillors standing: Nick Staikos (Labor) and Henry Buch (Liberal). Buch may struggle as he only recently joined council on a countback after the resignation of former Mayor David Feldman. Fellow Liberal and former councillor Jamie Hyams has scored number one position and should be elected. The other candidate with a chance is Jim Magee, who lead the fight to save the local swimming pool and polled well in the 2005 election.
Kingston City Council: The council has been reformed from seven single-member wards to three three-member wards. Hat-tip to Deano in comments for the following. North ward: Incumbent councillors Greg Alabaster and Arthur Athanasopolous are likely to be returned, but the third is up for grabs. Contestants are Paul Peulich, son of Liberal MP Inga Peulich, and Liz Larking, a past councillor and former ALP member. Mara Hayler is running for the Greens. Central ward: No fewer than 21 candidates have nominated, included 73-year-old mayor Bill Nixon and councillor Rosemary West. Other candidates include past councillor Ron Brownless, said to have done well out of preference recommendations, and John Natoli, an independent running a “well-organised campaign”. Three candidates have Labor links, including former state upper house MP Noel Pullen. Geoff Heard is said to be a “dark horse” and a “greenie”, although the actual Greens candidate is Dean Andrew. South Ward: John Ronke, incumbent for the Braeside Park ward, is said to be certain to win one of the three seats. Twelve candidates are competing for the other two. They include Donna Bauer, said to have run a “big spending campaign”; Trever Shewan, a former councillor; Carlos Lopez, the candidate of the Greens; Jeremy Nash, a member of the ALP; and Peter Wertheimer, an RSL captain.
Port Phillip City Council: JH writes in comments: “Another interesting council will be Port Phillip with the Unchain crew looking a reasonable chance in Catani Ward (Serge Thomann has been getting lots of press) and MAV boss Dick Gross could have a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Junction Ward. Having said that, I’ve not seen HTVs for anyone, so I don’t know who’s giving what. The Greens are running in every ward bar Albert Park, which is uncontested.”.
Bendigo Shire Council: The Greens have an incumbent mayor here in David Jones, seeking re-election in Kangaroo Flat ward. Another Greens incumbent is former mayor Julie Rivendell of Eppalock ward. The council consists of nine single-member wards: I gather councillors have an annual vote to determine who hte mayor will be for the coming year. The Greens between them have held the position for three of the past four years. North West Plains ward councillor Kevin Gibbins was a Liberal candidate at the 2004 federal and 2006 state elections.
Mount Alexander Shire Council: Commenter Follow the Preferences has high hopes for the Greens here. The council consists of the three-member Castlemaine ward in the centre, which is surrounded by the single-member rural wards of Tarrengower, Calder, Coliban and Loddon. The Greens have one incumbent in Philip Schier of Castlemaine ward, with Jan Garood and Doug Ralph respectively contesting Coliban and Calder.
it’s easy to criticise party politics in local govt, but in Warrnambool we have candidates mostly with identikit policy statements: proactive, engaged, listens to community etc. etc. although some are particularly concerned about one car park. Democracy is weakened when nobody knows what candidates stand for
Re politics in local government, there is tonnes of evidence that if you run for council and say I’m an endorsed ‘Blah” that you will get a fairly good return.
Where is the evidence that the majority don’t want people to be honest.
SNIP: Off-topic comment deleted – The Management.
Melbourne City Council, front runner and celebrity candidate, Robert Doyle failed to front up to the Press Council’s grill the candidates’ breakfast.
Doyle’s absence and lack of commitment to the City election has been a notable talking point throughout the campaign. By not tuning up to meetings and public events Robert Doyle has avoided public scrutiny and questioning over his leadership and policies for Melbourne. The level of contempt shown by Robert Doyle seriously undermines confidence in the the direct election of Lord mayor.
Robert Doyle has been a silent puppet candidate with his Deputy candidate, Susan Riley, pulling the strings. Susan Riley was John So’s former Deputy Lord Mayor before being dumped by John So in favour of Gary Singer.
He has thumbed his nose at the people of Melbourne and expects to be elected Lord Mayor on the strength of his name alone. Robert Doyle’s lack of participation and minimial activity in the campaign does nothing to support his billboard campaign slogan “Activate Melbourne”.
The Victorian Electoral Commission to is set to deny proper and effective scrutiny of the Municipal ballot – setting the scene for a repeat of the mistakes made in conduct of the 2006 State Election.
The Victorian Electoral Commission intends on using a computerised counting system to count single-member electorates and in the process will deny opportunity for the proper and detailed scrutiny of the ballot which in turn brings the electoral system into disrepute.
There is no justification for a the use of a computerised count for single-member electorates or the City of Melbourne ‘Lord Mayor’ Leadership Team.
In multi-member electorates a computerised count can assist in the filling of casual vacancies but there is no advantage in conducting a computerised count for single-member elections. Any savings in time comes at the expense of the scrutiny of the ballot. We could very much see a repeat of the mistakes made by the Victorian Electoral Commission during the 2006 State Election.
Unlike the State Election the Victorian Electoral Commission will not pre-sort ballot papers into primary votes before subjecting the ballots to a computerised data-entry count.
The process adopted by the Victorian Electoral Commission is akin to the three shells and a pea used by con artists. A ball is placed and hidden under a shell and then the shells are rotated and mixed-up and the punter has to guess which shell the pea is under.
Ballot papers will be randomly collated and batched before preferences are transcribed and data-entered into a computer. Whilst scrutineers will have the opportunity to observe the data-entry process they will not be able to effectively observe all ballot papers.
The quality of the count would be better if single-member electorates where counted manually as it provides more opportunity for the proper scrutiny of the ballot. By pre-sorting the ballot papers into primary votes scrutineers can follow the count and focus their attention on the votes that count. The randomisation of the data-entry process prevents the proper scrutiny of the ballot.
The Victorian Electoral Commission does not use a system of double entry validation, instead they use what is referred to as random sampling quality checking, This system has a number of short comings which is unacceptable where the results of the election are likely to be close. Radom sapmpliying is fine in a manufatoring process where strict contyrol is not required but it bwould be unaceptable for a bank to use a random sampling process in teh conting of money. It is also unacceptable in the counting of votes.
The time and resources required to undertake a computerised count for single-member electorates is the same, if not more, then a manual counting process. More important is that the quality of the count and the scrutiny of the ballot is significantly reduced as a result of a computerised count.
The use of a computerised counting system for single-member elections is a case of Boys with Toys.
The Victorian Electoral Commission has spent millions of dollars duplicating resources and developing a computerised counting system. having spent allthis money dupolicating systems atht are already used by the Australian Electoral Commison the VEC consider it is necessary to use the computersied counting software even though the results and savings in the process are minimal if not worst.
A computerised counting system should not be used for single member electorates.
Where a computerised count is undertaken, ballot papers should be pre-sorted into primary votes before being transcribed and data-entered into a computerised counting system.
Sportingbet Australia have made a surprising change in the odds on offer for the outcome of the Lord Mayors Race, just as the Melbourne leader publishes a story on the Sportingbet’s “A” list candidates.
Prior to today Sportingbet had Peter McMullin (3.25), Robert Doyle (3.5) and Catherine Ng (3.8) listed as the favourites to win the Melbourne Spring Carnival closing event.
For reasons unknown the “A” list of candidates has changed overnight. Racing identity, Nick Columb (4.2 up from 11.0) has come from behind and overtaken Catherine Ng (5.0 down from 3.8) who has lost ground. Robert Doyle remains steady on 3.5 with Peter McMullin (3.4 down from 3.25) dropping slightly in his lead as the gap narrows.
The reason for this change of odds is unexplained as are the positioning in the betting table.
Could Nick Columb and his mates down at the track know something we don’t?
Another conspiracy by the VEC, then?
There are three main candidates for the Lord Mayor and depending on their vote and the flower to the council tickets the results of the Council (7 member) electionaremore or less known. I would not work off Morgans dodgy poll. He has double counted the stats to make himself look good.
The three main contenders for Lord Mayor are Doyle, Ng and McMullin. Column is an interesting bet but he has no coverage. Overall the city of more or less divided, 30% Labor 30% Liberal 20 S0-ites and 20% Green independents. I will not go into detail of the anticipated count at this time other then to say that the Greens will get elected. 65% of punters choice their candidates and follow the HTV in the published book. Doyle’s campaign is the key to the outcome. he is expected to pick up a significant number of inverse donkey votes. (Votes where people preference their chosen candidate then a then preference through from top to bottom those remaining.)
John So never won the popular vote but he did pick but a significant drift in preferences. The Greens had 9% last election and they only pick up 1.5% from the newly added area of Kensington (In the Senate Election the Greens won 25% of the Kensington vote) and yes you may say that Local Government is not the Senate this has been taken into consideration . And those that reject the notion of party Politics in Local Government (The keep politics out of Politics con) The Greens have not poled too well and their preference deals are not in their favour. Catherine NG is best placed in terns of picking up preferences and coming up the middle. Catherin Ng is in fact a “sleeping Tory” who has promised to used Town Hall in her campaign of Opposition to the State Government
The State Government may yet regret the day that left Minister Bob Cameron opted for a direct election model.
Cassandra
If you have Casandra up and running then maybe you can use it for the 7 councillor positions. 95% of punters will vote above the line. The City of Melbourne being the only municipality with the flawed senate counting system. Add to that the other flaws in the way the VEC calculates the Surplus transfer and distributes exclusions the results will prove most interesting. Not just in Melbourne but in many other Municipalities that will for the first time use a proportional voting system. It would be interesting to also include Moreland which will be decided by the single 5 member ward. The rest are going to be more or less a rude awaking for some municipalities as they will find that they have to share dinners seats at the table with “outsiders” for the first time. Stonington could also be interesting to watch if not at the election in the year ahead.
Postal Vote closed Early
The other issue that has not had any real consideration is that most municipalities are using a postal voting system. The ballot will close on Friday November 28 at 6:00PM. How many people will rock up on the Saturday expecting to cast an absentee vote we will never know. It would have been more inclusive had the postal ballot closed on the Money following the “Election day” as opposed to 24 hours earlier.
I will not be surprised if the state Government comes under fire for what is a very poorly considered and executed election. But then Christmas and apathy will always dampen any disgruntled punters.
MDM Connell @ 8:28 pm #57
it is not a conspiracy more like a stuff up and plain incompetence and wasted resources. The VEC uses a random sampling quality control method in its counting system. This is find for manufacturing process but you would not see a bank adopt it. by contrast the AEC uses a double entry verification quality control. The letters is much more accurate and with a recount the error rates are very small.
It is impossible to properly scrutinise a data-entry counting system where the ballot papers are randomly batched. The VEC should be required to presort the ballot papers into primary votes (as is the case in Federal and State elections) prior to data entry. There is no benefit in using a computers data-entry counting system for single member electorates (That includes the City of Melbourne Leadership-team ballot)
Some reference was made earlier to Boroondara. The election in Boroondara will be by single councillor wards, thanks to a campaign orchestrated by Diane Anderson, Jeff Kennett, Mary Drost and Ken Coghill. Fairfax local newspapers see the latter as its authority on local government. He’s not, and he lives in the nineteenth century. The four people mentioned campaigned to get the VEC to adopt single councillor wards, and they were unfortunately successful.
Boroondara has ten single councillor wards. Only in one ward, Solway, does any ALP candidate have a chance, and the Libs are allowing this to happen.
There are less candidates this time than last time. A local blog, http://www.boroondaravotereform.blogspot.com has exposed the activities of former Labor Speaker in the Legislative Assembly Ken Coghill and is now supporting Kroger candidates in the Liberal Party, whoever these are.
Dummy candidates exist, but they are not making themselves obvious.
What a pity Jeff Kennett didn’t run for Melbourne Lord Mayor? Rumour has it the exposure on the blog http://www.boroondaravotereform.blogspot.com of Kennett’s intention to make ALP Higgins activist Diane Anderson his campaign manager forced him to withdraw. Also the boroondara blog claimed Diane Anderson was the force behind both Kennett and Boroondara activist Mary Drost (Mary has been a contributor to Diane’s Higgins News, despite the fact that she’s a very conservative Lib).
Making Diane your campaign manager is a stupid move Jeff, and I’m pleased you saw the light.
Also the most recent item on the boroondara blog urges voters in council elections to refuse to support ALP candidates and their dummies, and to support Kroger faction candidates, presumably when they identify themselves and I’ve yet to find any.
Funny that. Robert Doyle used to contribute to the blog that no longer exists the Melbourne media claimed was controlled by former ALP state secretary Erik Locke (who I think is a very decent man) all his press releases so lazy journos would pick them up, and sometimes they did. On the Locke blog last time Doyle urged voters to reject ALP candidates and their dummies. Seems one of his supporters is using identical language on the boroondara blog!
With all respect Dr Ken Coghill, who was speaker of the Victorian parliament is very much an authority on local government. Diane Anderson is not. The ALP’s push for single member electorates in so called ALP safe seats is obvious seeking to maintain the political advantage. The VEC when it came up with its patchwork quilt of electoral representation models tended to favour single member constituencies in ALP dominated areas. (I fail to see why Hobson Bay was not a 3 x 3 ward council yet stonington was – they both should have adopted a three x three model. Maybe it had something to do with the fact that Steve Bracks was the local member in Williamstown – A some claim the VEC is independent). The patchwork approach to local government reform in Victoria has little to desire. Nillumbik council should have also been a 3 x 3 model as opposed to the nine single member wards. Those municipalities like Moreland where there are differing number of representatives in each ward will produce the worst outcome. Each ward/electorate should have been equal in quota percentage as well as number of constituents. Whilst wards give the perception of a community of interest the fact is that the council votes as a whole on all issues and so called community of interest are not necessarily based around geographic neighbourhoods.
Banyule has an election too. Seems there is something strange in the water out there.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/1541/plants-has-the-greens-party-been-infiltrated-by-a-shrewd-northern-suburbs-liberal-machine/
Sorry mean to say that the Greens will get NOT be eleted in the above post
Democracy@work @ 58
“John So never won the popular vote but he did pick but a significant drift in preferences.”
Say what? In 2004 he got over 19,000 first preferences from about 49,000 votes. Greens came second with just over 4,000. Sounds like he won the popular vote to me.
Glen Eira Council is interesting as it has changed from postal to attendance voting (probably the only council to do this).
In 2005 (with postal voting) there were 61 candidates across 3 wards – each electing 3 councillors. It was well known that at least half the 2005 candidates were dummies – and by dummies I mean they nominated but did no campaigning and almost all directed their preferences to a particular group of candidates aligned with the Liberal Party.
This election there are 26 candidates. It appears that the change to attendance voting has discouraged candidates from running dummies – as to pass on preferences they would need to campaign and produce how-to-vote cards.
One exception seems to be Nellie Khoroshima who has been a serial dummy candidate – standing in the previous 2 elections in different wards.
Also of interest is the candidature of Frank Penhalluriack, the rebel hardware store owner who spent time in gaol in the 70’s for opening on Sundays. Frank has had a number of planning applications turned down by council recently and was made to remove illegally built structures on his business property. He doesn’t actually live in the municipality – and had previously sponsored the discredited Mayor Peter Goudge (who didn’t live in the area either). Perhaps he’s hoping for better treatment if he gets elected.
There is a reasonable chance of getting 3 Green councillors at this election in Glen Eira (3 wards x 3 seats).
The Green pre-poll vote will be higher that the Green vote on election day because of the pre-poll booth coverage.
That would be very difficult Tom @ 67 a there is only a Green candidate standing in one ward.
You are right but if they were standing candidates then they might win one of three in each ward.
Winston John did not win over 50% of the vote and as such he did not win the popular vote. Thanks god our elctoralsyustem is not first past the post. teh direct election system has failed to deliver good governance. The Greens received 9% primary in 2004. They were never going to be elected. If you so confident in Green brand power then I wuggest you log on to Sportingbet who are also offering good odds. I have done some extensive modelling of the elctroate and I am copnfident that teh greens will not come close to winning the seat. There are three main contenders for the lord mayor as I have stated above. With one week to still go in the ballot, I would be pleased to share with you some of teh profiling analysius but it will have to wait a little longer. but it is not hard to do,. Start by looking at the 2005 results and make a comparison/correctuion based on the State Election and Senate results and you have the base in which to then build on. I willgoive you one hint..Whislt the state and senate elction are good indicators they do not represent the electorate. You really need to go back and look more closely at the 2004 results, If you nknow the electorate you then need to redistibute John So’s and James Long vote. HAVE FUN. I LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR ANALYSIS. IF YOU CARE TO PROVIDE SOME PERCENTAGES WE CAN TEST YOUR SKILL AND TELL YOU THE OUTCOME OF THE SEVEN COUNCILORS
Winston… Since when has it been a requirement to live in the electorate. That is a nice cheapshot but it has no real bearing on a persons ability to represent their electorate.
Here is the 2004 City of Melbourne LM results Try and reallocate the vote to todays candidate list. I would be interetsed in your assessment backed by by some had facts and stats.
Candidates”.”Team”.”1st Pref Votes”.”“
“LM 2004”.”“.”“.”“
“POROCHOWSKY, Christian (Lord Mayor)”.”YOUTH FOR AUSTRALIA”.”777”.”1.43%”
“MORGAN, Gary (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE CIVIC GROUP – THE CITY’S FUTURE”.”3545”.”6.52%”
“DI NATALE, Richard (Lord Mayor)”.”THE GREENS – FOR A LIVING CITY”.”4187”.”7.71%”
“LONG, James (Lord Mayor)”.”ADVANCE MELBOURNE”.”2680”.”4.93%”
“LEE, Wellington (Lord Mayor)”.”TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY”.”742”.”1.37%”
“VULIN, Milo (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE ARTS FASHION DESIGN INNOVATION”.”240”.”0.44%”
“BARRY, Matthew (Lord Mayor)”.”RESIDENTS FIRST:-STOP THE RATES RIPOFF”.”1312”.”2.41%”
“CHAMBERLIN, Kevin Francis (Lord Mayor)”.”KEVIN CHAMBERLIN FOR MELBOURNE”.”3552”.”6.54%”
“COLLINS, Neil Desmond (Lord Mayor)”.”GROWING MELBOURNE”.”656”.”1.21%”
“COLLINS, Raymond (Lord Mayor)”.”ACTIVE. LOCAL. PROGRESSIVE.”.”1550”.”2.85%”
“FINN, Joan (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE FOR PEOPLE”.”246”.”0.45%”
“WATSON, Allan James (Lord Mayor)”.”RESPONSIBLE RATEPAYERS”.”505”.”0.93%”
“MORRISON, Peter (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE: OPEN FOR BUSINESS”.”253”.”0.47%”
“COOPER, John (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE FIRST”.”974”.”1.79%”
“STOOKE, Warren (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE AT WORK”.”531”.”0.98%”
“PERRY, Pamela (Lord Mayor)”.”SAVE OUR STREETS”.”240”.”0.44%”
“HUGHES, James (Lord Mayor)”.”GREENING MELBOURNE”.”343”.”0.63%”
“McGEE, Steven (Lord Mayor)”.”!ST@ND UP 4 MELBOURNE!”.”503”.”0.93%”
“TAI, Melissa (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE NIGHTLIFE”.”480”.”0.88%”
“SO, John (Lord Mayor)”.”MELBOURNE LIVING”.”19114”.”35.17%”
“NEWTON-BROWN, Clem (Lord Mayor)”.”SERVING MELBOURNE”.”2911”.”5.36%”
Now break it down and distribute the vote to this years list
Fowles Ng Singer Doyle Morgan Columb Greens
You can include the others if your wish. I expect they represent no more then 5% of the overall vote and they will not preference in one directon. Oh I also think the informal vote and non partipation rate will be higher this year. The real issue out there is the ‘economy stupid.
Sorry the list left off McMullin
Should read McMullin Fowles Ng Singer Doyle Morgan Columb Greens
Go to it profilers … Allocate a percenatge to each of the above candidates using on the 2004 results as a starting point.
Caroline Church@61
I think what really sucked the wind out of Kennett’s mayoral sails was his ill-advised sledging of the gay community (which while not large enough in Melbourne to get a person elected, is probably large enough to sink someone). It occurred right at the formative time for his mayoral run and probably subtly shifted the landscape just enough to force him out.
I’ve added sketchy overviews of Mount Alexander, Bendigo, Banyule and Glen Eira, based on what I’ve been told by readers. Would be delighted if any informed local observers could fill in some of the gaps. Would obviously like to hear on other councils as well – surely there’s some good Labor-versus-Greens biffo going on in the inner-city?
Adam, that “VexNews” article is a piece of crap. As is VexNews.
I still don’t know if it’s an Onion-esque satire or supposed to be taken seriously. Either way, it’s not remotely funny and full of unsubstantiated crap.
This bit in particular:
“The suggestion that upper house MP Greg Barber might have sanctioned the establishment of a Blue-Green “Aqua” faction of Greens Party pro-development low-tax conservatives was vigorously denied by the source.”
Will be laughed at by anyone who has any idea of how The Greens work.
Also ridiculous is the notion that keeping rates at current levels, tackling vandalism, engaging with local businesses and improving planning regulations and laws are some anti-Greens policies.
FAR OUT.
Why do I keep calling you Adam?
This is getting a bit weird.
*William.
So it’s not the case that “Greens candidate Ian Kirk has raised eyebrows by giving McKenna his second preference”?
William the Greens are more or less resigned to the fact that they will not win the Lord Mayor. They will win one seat in the City of melbourne and that’s all. In Yarra two to three. At best they poll 25% on average 9%. There is some concern and backlash against the Greens on the economic agreement and it is hard at this stage to know if the economic down turn is focusing voters attention. I suspect it will.
Oz,
The Greens have preferenced a Liberal pro development hack who is an up front “Climate Change’ denialist. Would have thought that was core business for Greens supporters.
Obviously not.
The age did a beat up on Google.
The Age newspaper published yesterday a free campaign plug for Catherine Ng who has falsely claimed that her opponents had initiated a google cyber attack against her site.
Catherine Ng’s claims are another example of the false and misleading statements of wrong doing that is being pumped out by her campaign director Ian Hanke – The Liberal Party “Spin doctor” who promoted the “Children Overboard” lie used to win votes for John Howard in 2004.
The Age, keen to promote Catherine Ng and cash in on the false and misleading statements, demonstrated an alarming lack of professionalism and bias in its reporting. If you look closely at the Google screen shot shown in the Age article you will notice on the right had side (slightly obscured) an ad placed by Gary Singer. The Age had deliberatly sought to crop that out from the photo.
Catherin Ng’s spin masters tired to make our and imply that there was some of hanke panky going on in cyberspace. The only Hanke panky is coming from Catherine Ng herself. So desperate is Catherine Ng to seek headlines and attrack media attention to her campaign that she has stooped to making false claims. There is nothing wrong or underhanded in a person buying advertising space on the Internet. in fact is is very much apart of the free market economy and a open democratic society.
Gary Singer, Catherine Ng’s running mate, admitted that he also had brought Google advertising space to promote for his campaign.
It should also be noted that both Ng and Singer also have placed ads using Google keywords.
Contrary to the statements published in the Age article hotlinks to Catherine Ng and Gary Singer’s web sites appear more regularly then they do for Peter McMullin who has been the target of envy, dirty ticks and lies by the Singer and Ng camps.
A simple Google search on the keyword “Lord Mayor” shows that all three candidates appear in the Google hot links page, proving that the statements made by both Ng and Singer that their ads only appear when you do a Google on their names are false.
False statements or deliberate lie published in The Age dirty tricks campaign?:
William. It is true that Ian Kirk has preferenced Peter McKenna 2nd. However this did not come about because of policy. Peter was preferenced above the serious ALP candidate (Michael Paul) for one simple reason. When Ian was asked by Michael where his preferences would go, he said he would talk to the branch. Michael immediately became angry and abusive because he wasn’t automatically getting preferenced over Peter. I dont know why the branch decided to put Peter and Michael 2nd and 3rd, but thats not the point. Michael verbally abused Ian. We made the decision that verbal assault is wrong and thus Michael was punished. Yes, it may have been the wrong thing to do ideologically, but it was the right thing to do morally.
Fair enough. Nothing says “I find you morally repugnant” like a third placement out of eight.
That depends on who the other 5 are, William.
None of the other 5 tried to talk to Ian about preferences. And the 3 that weren’t ALP apparently didn’t talk to anyone. So it seemed fairly obvious that they werent very serious.
Based on reresentation at pre-poll booths, and preferences, I’ved made a guess of the front-runners.
IBBOT
Tom Melican is independent. Respected by ALP, Libs and Greens alike for this. Will win.
GRIFFIN
Jenny Mulholland needs to win on primaries, as the best she does in preferences is 4th out of 6 from the Greens.
Its essentially a race between Stephen Walpole(ALP), Jenny, and Dean Griffin(Green) who is getting 2nd or 3rd from most. Jenny is giving her 2nd to Dean, so I think he is in. Its the Greens strongest area and Jenny has plenty of support.
BEALE
Wayne Phillips has it won. Only 2 against him and isgetting preferences from one of them.
OLYMPIA
Anthony Carbines will probably get back, but its hard to say because I’ve only seen 2 of the other 4 HTV’s. Both are putting Anthony last and swapping preferences.
HAWDON
This is a strange one. 3 have said they are ALP, with another preferencing as if she was. Someone who says he is a Lib, but the Lib helpers are handing out for the Independent instead. (Including the local branch president. The Green is getting preferences from the Lib and the Independent. Sandra and Martin(ALP) are the front runners preference wise, but the Green beat Martin last time, so he cant be counted out.
BAKEWELL
Of the tickets I’ve seen, Michael Paul has one going his way, Peter McKenna has 2. The Greens aren’t in this one. I have heard that one of the candidates without a card is running to support Michael. It’s his daughters friend supposedly.
GRIMSHAW
Lots of stories here. First 3 of 9 without cards. 3 ALP members, and the rest seem to be minor players without much of a chance. Frank Beard and Dean Sherriff are best positioned.
Frank has gone against party rules(something about preferencing fellow ALP above others) by putting Dean last. Now someone handing out for Frank has been threatened and has called the police for help. Frank faces possible expulsion from the party and Dean has reportably had to be restrained from physically attacking Frank multiple times. I see it as a probable win for Frank Beard.
Dave,
Magner did not out poll Appleby last time.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/BanyuleResult2005.html#5
Just to correct Dave – the Green running in Griffin Ward is Dean Winkle, not Dean Griffin.
Another interesting council will be Port Phillip with the Unchain crew looking a reasonable chance in Catani Ward (Serge Thomann has been getting lots of press) and MAV boss Dick Gross could have a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Junction Ward. Having said that, I’ve not seen HTVs for anyone, so I don’t know who’s giving what. The Greens are running in every ward bar Albert Park, which is uncontested.
Dave,
Appleby beat magner, fact, and the fact that the greens did not preferance appleby clearly points to a green/liberal alliance in Banyule no other explenation required. but please add your version
William, I would have thought the fact that someone with a conviction for assault was running again and considered a favourite would raise more eyebrows than any Green preference decision.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21593669-2862,00.html
Not just a technical assault either, with two very young children showered with broken glass, and completely unprovoked as well.
NOTE: This does not refer to Michael Paul, as I assumed when first reading it – The Management.
I would love to know what’s going on in Moreland and I live there!! We have 11 candidates standing for 3 positions in South Ward and I only know that 2 are Greens because they’re sitting Councillors. The rest seem to be ALP or Socialist Alliance but no one is prepared to say who they are backed by. Is this embarrassment or are they hiding something? Whatever happened to hoisting your name to the flagpole and standing on your principles?
Dave, where are you
OK, my mistake on the 2005 result.
Damian put Appleby above the Lib. That sort of nullifies your entire arguament.
And as for where I was, I was having a life.
Oz @ 77. I didn’t post a link to Vex News. I posted a link to the VEC (http:.www.vec.vic.gov.au)
[Whatever happened to hoisting your name to the flagpole?]
I presume therefore that Moreland Mushroom is your real name?
The victorian Electoral Commission is set to repeat some of the mistakes they made in 2006. Bill Laing, Melbourne City Council’s Returning Office has to date refused calls for a manual count of the lord Mayors election. There is no justification for a computerised data-entry count. A number of candidates in the election have supported the call for the count to be open and transparent.
If the computer count is to proceed then the VEC should do a presort of the ballot papers prior to batching them ready for data-entry.
Whilst there is nothing in the legislation that requires a presorting of the ballot, other then the requirement and obligation to ensure that the election is open and transparent, there is nothing that prevents the VEC from initiating a presort of the ballot papers into primary vote as is the case in senate elections.
The election of Lord Mayor of Melbourne is expected to be close and the reporting of ballot papers would significantly assist in the orderly scrutiny of the ballot.
The Victorian State Parliament in its report on the Conduct of the 2006 State election had recommended that ballot papers be presorted prior to data entry. The VEC’s refusal to comply with requests to date is further evidence of the inability of the VEC’s inability to self regulate the conduct of the count.
Extract of the Victorian Parliament Electoral Matters Committe report on the 2006 election
Effective, timely and transparent scrutiny of elections is a cornerstone of democratic government. In paper based voting systems, transparency is typically managed by having “observers and scrutineers present at different stages of the voting and counting processes”.
Ms Williams [Deputy Electoral Commissioner] suggested the VEC did not “pre-sort the ballot papers into first preferences”. EMC member the Honourable Christine Campbell MP expressed concern that this did not occur:
Ms Campbell—What you were also going to, instead of having as you have described there “a batch” checked, that before the result was keyed into the computer that if, for argument’s sake, there were 100 batches of 50 first preference for Liz, then someone had the ability to quickly check randomly a number of those batches to check they were all number 1 Liz.
Ms Williams—No, they are not sorted. They are all mixed. The advantage, we do not pre-sort the ballot papers into first preferences. We do not do that.
Ms Campbell—I thought you had me on side, but you have me worried again.
The EMC recognises that the batching of ballot papers is a necessary practice during Legislative Council election counts. The EMC therefore supports the VEC continuing to batch ballot papers at future Legislative Council elections.
Nevertheless, the EMC holds the view that current batching procedures could be improved. Specifically, the EMC would like to see the VEC improve verification procedures for batches.
While the EMC is mindful that scrutineers are precluded from physically inspecting or handling batches, the EMC recommends that pre-sorting of ballot papers into batches of first preferences would improve the scrutineering of Legislative Council counts.
Recommendation 9.4:
The Victorian Electoral Commission considers pre-sorting ballot papers into batches of first preferences for Legislative Council counts.
…
Scrutiny of electronic election counts
The EMC received general comments from stakeholders about scrutiny arrangements during electronic election counts. Anthony van der Craats commented that one potential benefit of a manual counting system is that “scrutineers and individuals involved in the election can physically watch the transfer of ballot papers and have multiple opportunities to observe the allocation of preferences as they move throughout the manual counting cycle. With a computerised counting system a different approach is required”.
In addition, the Australian Greens (Victoria) expressed a view that the count needs to be both transparent and seen to be transparent”.
Alison Clarke, Australian Greens’ (Victoria) Party Co-ordinator, elaborated further:
It is more difficult to scrutinise electronic votes than it is by hand vote, a paper count. Also because of that the perception of transparency can be reduced. We are not 100 per cent convinced that the benefits of electronic voting outweigh the drawbacks, that you lose some transparency, obviously there is some efficiency but whether that trade-off is worthwhile.
With less then one week to go, as of Friday November 21, the VEC has received back for the City of Melbourne in the post 23844 envelopes. This is less then 25% of the number of voters on the roll.
Voting closes on Friday November 28 at 6:00PM Ballot papers must be received by the Retuning Officer priot to this date and time
Bill Lang
Level 6, Council House
200 Little Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Phone: (03) 9639 0046
My apologies to Michael Paul if anyone reading my piece but not clicking on the link thought he was the one who committed the assault. Nevertheless, he is a factional ally of Dean Sherriff and it is rather amazing that people can be making such a fuss about a preference decision while backing a man in a different ward who has been convicted of such serious crimes, and has PRECAUTIONARY LEGAL SNIP – The Management.
Dave,
Look again, magner has preferanced the inderpandant lib, my argument stil is as strong as ever!!
feral by nature as well, if you had any knowledge of banyule, you would be aware of who’s who in the zoo, bur with comments like sherriff and paul it clearly shows you are lacking infomation to correctly comment on these matters