Frome by-election (South Australia): January 17

This post will be progressively updated with news on the South Australian state by-election in Frome, to be held on January 17.

January 16

One day to go: this site will be providing live coverage from shortly after the close of polls at 6pm local time tomorrow. Antony Green lays out the officially registered how-to-vote cards, which have been lodged by all candidates bar the Greens. The Flinders News reports that “No Pokies Senator Nick Xenophon and Member of the House of Assembly Kris Hanna are rallying behind (Geoff) Brock to help him become the next local parliamentarian”. Xenophon’s support for Hanna was instrumental in his surprise success in retaining his seat of Mitchell after quitting first Labor and then the Greens during the previous term.

January 14

The Australian’s Jamie Walker breathlessly reports that Labor’s direction of preferences to Geoff Brock has “thrown the contest wide open”, as if the alternative – preferences to the Liberals – had been in any way in prospect. The Liberals are “taking this remote possibility seriously”, “spending heavily on advertising and working the electorate to get local policeman Terry Boylan over the line”. We are also told that “the ALP can’t be discounted, either”, though I’ll stick my neck out and say that they can be. The Independent Weekly reports the Greens are not directing preferences. The ABC reports a record 1700 early votes have been received along with 2200 postal vote applications, which the State Electoral Office puts down to the number of people away on holidays. Antony Green has a new post on Frome, mostly focused on the historical record of governments winning seats from oppositions at by-elections.

January 12

Former Port Pirie resident Michael Gorey in comments notes that the Nationals are not even putting the Liberals ahead of Labor on preferences: they are issuing a split ticket between the two for third preference behind Geoff Brock. Gorey says we should not rule out the prospect of a Nationals-fuelled Brock overtaking Labor and perhaps achieving an upset with their preferences.

January 2

Mike Rann’s tip: “My expectation is that it’s a safe Liberal seat and will continue to be a safe Liberal seat”.

December 29

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports Geoff Brock and Neville Watson have arranged to swap preferences.

December 24

Russell Emmerson of the Adelaide Advertiser reports that radio ads featuring Mike Rann explaining cuts of 1600 jobs in the government’s recent mini-budget are “under scrutiny” to determine whether they are “electoral material”, and thus in breach of regulations. One very much doubts that the regulations would encompass public information advertising of this kind – what’s more, the ads were broadcast only in the metropolitan area, notwithstanding the opposition’s line that “the footprint for most of these radio stations extends well into the Frome electorate”.

December 18

Nominations have closed, and there are no further candidates to those already noted. The ballot paper order is John Rohde (Country Labor); Neville Wilson (Nationals); Terry Boylan (Liberal); Joy O’Brien (Greens); Peter Fitzpatrick (One Nation); Geoff Brock (Independent Your Voice). Antony Green has gone to town on the by-election here. Along with many other facts and figures, he notes something that had previously escaped my notice: that this is the first state by-election in South Australia since 1994. He also observes that Frome was expressly created to serve as a marginal electorate for purposes of the state’s counter-productive arithmetic test of electoral fairness, which he gets stuck into here.

December 17

The Northern Argus reports Hallett resident Joy O’Brien and Dublin resident Peter Fitzpatrick will respectively run for the Greens and One Nation. Clare and Gilbert Valleys Mayor Allan Aughey, who has “previously been a Labor Party candidate” (not sure when), has denied rumours he will run as an independent.

December 10

The ABC reports that the mayor and deputy mayor of Port Pirie, Geoff Brock and Neville Wilson, will contest the by-election – the former as an independent, the latter as Nationals candidate. Nominations close on Thursday, December 18.

November 28

The State Electoral Office has a Frome by-election page up. Its map and profile of the electorate can be viewed here.

November 25

Channel Nine News reports nominations will close on December 18.

November 15

Conservative firebrand Christopher Pearson weighs in in his regular column for The Weekend Australian:

The rural electorate of Frome has an industrial end, the city of Port Pirie, where Nyrstar’s mainland lead and zinc-smelting operation is based. Either directly or by way of contractors, the smelter accounts for about 800 jobs and another 600 flow-on jobs. Without them, the city would have no economic reason to exist. Its present unemployment rate is 6.2 per cent. If the plant were to close, it’s estimated the rate would nearly double. On Wednesday, Nyrstar announced it was considering shutting down Pirie’s smelter and its zinc operation in Hobart. Under the eligibility formula in the Rudd Government’s green paper on emissions, Nyrstar is not eligible for assistance as an emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industry. The prospect of a $40 per tonne carbon price, envisaged in Treasury modelling, would drive smelting operations offshore …

On Tuesday there was some doubt over whether Labor would field a candidate at the by-election, despite Kerin’s margin being a low 3.4 per cent. South Australia’s new Country Health Plan has been very poorly received and the Government had resigned itself to a rebuff in a pre-Christmas poll. By Thursday evening, SA Labor had decided to deprive the Liberals of an easy win by postponing the vote until January 17 and running a campaign on the theme of Premier Mike Rann standing up to Canberra and fighting for local jobs. SA Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith had been expecting a December 13 poll. At first he complained about the delay, which will keep the under-resourced Liberals on a war footing throughout the festive season. However, he seems to have warmed to the task in the wake of reports that the launch of Climate Change Minister Penny Wong’s white paper had suddenly been delayed. Federally, the Coalition welcomes the campaign as a mini-referendum on the design and timing of the Rudd Government’s emissions trading scheme.

November 13

House of Assembly Speaker Jack Snelling has set January 17 as the date for the by-election. This has displeased the Liberals, who wished for it to be held on December 13. The accompanying ABC report confirms that John Rohde will contest the seat for Labor.

November 12

Thanks to Max in comments for alerting us to the following tidbit from The Advertiser: ”(Premier Mike Rann) said Labor was likely to contest the by-election. Labor’s candidate is likely to be John Rohde who ran for the seat at the last election.”.

November 11

Former SA Liberal Premier Rob Kerin has announced his retirement, effective immediately. This will initiate a by-election in his seat of Frome, where his margin fell from 11.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent at the March 2006 election. Kerin had already made it known he would note contest the election, and Port Pirie policeman Terry Boylan was preselected to succeed him in May. Labor also has an election candidate in place – postal worker John Rohde, who also contested in 2002 and 2006 – but the struggling Rann government probably won’t be game to take on a mid-term by-election in a normally safe Liberal seat. Unless a strong independent candidate emerges, Boylan is likely to go untroubled. My election guide entry described the electorate thus:

Frome was created when a redistribution before the 1993 election removed Port Pirie from Stuart, which it had previously dominated along with Port Augusta. Port Pirie is an industrial town whose principal attraction is Pasminco’s lead and zinc smelter, and it provided Labor with a safe seat in the days when it formed an electorate in its own right (which ended when rural vote weighting was abolished in 1970). There has since been a decline in both Port Pirie’s relative population and Labor’s share of the vote. It is now included in Frome as part of a 50 kilometre stretch of the eastern Spencer Gulf coastline, from which the electorate stretches south-eastwards through the Clare Valley wine country to Tarlee, about 50 kilometres north of Adelaide. More than half the electorate’s voters are in small country towns such as Gladstone, Crystal Brook and Clare, which have kept the seat in Liberal hands since Rob Kerin became its inaugural member in 1993.

UPDATE: I note Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reported the following on July 23:

SENIOR Liberals are hatching a plan which would force the Rann Government to face a “super Saturday” of by-elections on the growing political row over changes to country health services … The move would involve three Liberal MPs in rural seats – who are all due to retire at the next election – stepping down to force by-elections. The MPs, Rob Kerin in Frome, Liz Penfold (Flinders) and Graham Gunn (Stuart), have all been outspoken in their criticism of the Government’s planned changes to rural health services … Mr Kerin told The Advertiser the by-election idea had been “mentioned a few times’” but he had not spoken to anyone about stepping down in Frome which he holds with a 4.2 per cent margin. He said he would not rule out the idea … (Gunn) ruled out stepping down to force a by-election in his seat of Stuart which, with a 0.4 per cent margin, is the most marginal Liberal seat in the state. Ms Penfold, whose vast Eyre Peninsula seat of Flinders is the safest Liberal seat in the state, said normally she would not support any moves for a by-election. “But this is such an important issue I will reserve my judgment,” she said.

Perhaps I’m underestimating the desire of locals to vent their fury about country health services, but this strikes me as foolish in the extreme. Sykesie in comments notes that the government released its draft Country Health Care Strategy just last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

106 comments on “Frome by-election (South Australia): January 17”

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  1. Thanks for the article William.

    Mike Rann will have trouble pretending he is able to fight against Canberra. Most South Aussies think he has thrown us under the bus to further his ambitions as Party President, especially regarding water. Penny Wong is viewed in the same light. The $10M sop for the lower lakes is a tokenistic joke.

    [Meanwhile, Premier Mike Rann has warned that attempts to stop a Victorian pipeline taking water from the Murray-Darling Basin could harm the proposed independent control of the river system.

    “This is a dangerous tactic,” Mr Rann said. The federal Opposition, with the support of Family First, the Greens and No Pokies Senator Nick Xenophon, proposes to amend Murray-Darling Basin legislation to block the pipeline.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24654510-5006301,00.html

  2. “Most South Aussies think he has thrown us under the bus”

    Thanks for that quaint anecdote, however current polling conducted in metropolitan areas show that Rann Labor continues to poll at 2006 levels, when they gained a post-WW2 record of 56.8% on 2pp.

  3. bob

    That’s because there is no opposition in SA. If there was even a semblance of an alternative, Rann would be on his bike next election.

  4. But there is, when you compare the MHS Liberals to Iain Evans Liberals.

    All people will need to do at the next election is look at one thing. The Liberals are too preoccupied with their own positions. Premier, Deputy Premier, portfolios, it was all one big giant musical chairs during their time in government. They couldn’t run their party let alone the state. Their factions run wild. People don’t like instability.

    Compare this to Rann Labor, who has provided stability to the state.

    Politics has always been about the least worst choice.

  5. bob1234

    The Libs have still got much the same personnel under MHS as Evans. MHS has evidently got them working a bit harder and is showing some leadership but he really is a one-man band. Personally, I think he’s a buffoon and given how hopeless the rest of his team is, I wouldn’t trust them to run the state. I can’t name a single decent Lib politician in SA. Seriously, if there is a SA Lib supporter out there, I would love to know who your best politicians are so I can watch them. There must be some but we never see them. The only one I know much about is Wendy Chapman and she is absolutely clueless.

    Rann does have bland, stable competence on his side.

  8. bob1234

    I often make that mistake. It should be Vicki Chapman. Wendy was the Hindmarsh Bridge lady. I think the Marj will end up with the stadium.

  10. Perform a water audit. Look at water consumption versus utility (eg profit, value of crops, jobs, look at the cost of alternative sources of the crop). Work out the lowest performers and buy them out. If they won’t sell for a reasonable amount, cut their water licences. If they still won’t sell, start a grass-roots campaign explaining why buying Australian rice and cotton is wrecking the country and then buy them up when they go bust.

  11. Even if the whole Riverina rice and cotton industries were shut down (which is of course politically impossible), that would not send enough water down the river (given the 70% evaporation rate) to save the Lower Lakes. The only way to do it in the absence of rain is to shut down SA’s irrigation farming completely (ie, kill off the Riverland) and make Adelaide either build a desal plant or drink its own sewage. In other words, it can’t be done. If the drought goes another year, the acidification of the Lakes will require opening the barrages. No-one is yet willing to say that, but that’s the fact.

  12. Actually they have been saying that. I’m sure Rann has already said it and Penny Wong has said a few times they plan to open the barrages in 2010.

  13. Adam

    If your numbers are correct, they should open the barrages. The risk:benefit doesn’t justify the kind of action needed to save them versus the benefit of keeping them alive. They should be a casualty.

  14. In regard to William’s bit above:

    “The rural electorate of Frome has an industrial end, the city of Port Pirie, where Nyrstar’s mainland lead and zinc-smelting operation is based. Either directly or by way of contractors, the smelter accounts for about 800 jobs and another 600 flow-on jobs. Without them, the city would have no economic reason to exist. Its present unemployment rate is 6.2 per cent. If the plant were to close, it’s estimated the rate would nearly double. On Wednesday, Nyrstar announced it was considering shutting down Pirie’s smelter and its zinc operation in Hobart. Under the eligibility formula in the Rudd Government’s green paper on emissions, Nyrstar is not eligible for assistance as an emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industry. The prospect of a $40 per tonne carbon price, envisaged in Treasury modelling, would drive smelting operations offshore …

    Federally, the Coalition welcomes the campaign as a mini-referendum on the design and timing of the Rudd Government’s emissions trading scheme.”

    ETS scheme will protect jobs: Carr – http://news.theage.com.au/national/ets-scheme-will-protect-jobs-carr-20081116-67tt.html

    “The federal government says its emissions trading scheme will be designed to protect jobs.

    The emission heavy zinc industry is warning up to 3,000 jobs will be at risk if the government rushes to implement a scheme by 2010.

    Nyrstar, which produces zinc and lead, says its smelters will no longer be viable under the emissions trading scheme, which will cost it $70 million in carbon taxes.

    It wants to qualify for the same government assistance available to the steel and aluminium industries.

    Industry Minister Kim Carr said the government is working closely with industry to design a scheme that will protect jobs.”

    Stay tuned! I’m sure this will be most covered by-election in SA parliament in history.

  15. bob1234

    Given that it’s a state rather than Federal by-election, don’t you think the Country Health changes will be more important than the ETS? I’m sure Federal Libs will say the inevitable swing away to SA Libs in Frome was due to a “resounding rejection of Mr Rudd’s hasty introduction of a scheme to kill Australian jobs” but in reality, it will be a vote against downgrading the small regional hospitals.

  17. In reply to Diogenes “I’m sure Federal Libs will say the inevitable swing away to SA Libs in Frome was due to a “resounding rejection of Mr Rudd’s hasty introduction of a scheme to kill Australian jobs” but in reality, it will be a vote against downgrading the small regional hospitals.”

    I couldn’t agree more. But it won’t stop the fed libs thrashing the hell out of it.

  18. bob1234

    Well I hope that Fed Labor keep a close eye on what the Liberal guy campaigns on so they can counter that argument. I’ll be really pissed off if John Hill stuffing up the integrated Country Health System ends up delaying the introduction of an ETS. It would be grossly irresponsible of Federal Liberal but they seem pretty bereft of any ideas at the moment and they’ll latch onto anything like parasites.

  19. One of the besetting weaknesses of the blogotariat (like the printotariat, only moreso) is the obsessive desire to OVER-ANALYSE EVERYTHING. There will be a swing to the Libs in Frome because there is ALWAYS a swing to the opposition party in a by-election in a safe opposition seat. IT WON’T MEAN ANYTHING.

  20. Adam

    I know it won’t mean anything but the MSM and the public may well be convinced that it does. My opinion doesn’t matter but the politicians might take notice of the MSM and public.

  21. Now things get interesting!

    Labor divided over emissions trading – http://news.smh.com.au/national/labor-divided-over-emissions-trading-20081113-666h.html

    Tasmanian premier David Bartlett says his federal Labor colleagues have “got it wrong” on emissions trading, after a large metals company warned the scheme would drive its smelters out of business.

    Nyrstar, which produces zinc and lead, says its smelters in Tasmania and South Australia would not be viable under emissions trading.

    The company employs 1,500 people in Hobart and a similar number at its Port Pirie plant in South Australia.

    …

    Nyrstar’s comments prompted a reaction from the Tasmanian and South Australian governments.

    Mr Bartlett said he would fight to keep the Hobart smelter open.

    “I think at the moment, in the Green Paper, (Climate Change Minister) Penny Wong and (Prime Minister) Kevin Rudd have got it wrong,” Mr Bartlett told the Tasmanian parliament.

    “They have it wrong because they are penalising companies such as Nyrstar.”

    Mr Bartlett said the government should not target companies which used renewable hydro energy.

    South Australian premier Mike Rann said he had asked the federal government for a compromise.

    “We’ve made submissions to the federal government to see if we can get some special exemptions for Nyrstar and I’m sure that will be sorted out,” Mr Rann told ABC.

    …

    Greens climate change spokeswoman Christine Milne said Nyrstar’s claims seemed “thin”.

    “Nyrstar will not go offshore,” she said.

    “The threat is just another bargaining chip in the emissions trading political games which makes no real sense.”

    Senator Milne said Nyrstar ran smelters in Europe where electricity was more expensive than in Australia, and where emissions trading was already operating.

  22. bob1234

    It’s everywhere.

    [PREMIERS are in revolt over Kevin Rudd’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, urging changes to the proposed formulas for compensating export industries to ensure they are not pushed offshore.

    The premiers of South Australia and Tasmania have written to the Prime Minister raising specific concerns about the design of the scheme, its impact on major industries and expressing fears that the ETS will spark major losses of jobs and revenue.

    Queensland, Victoria and the West Australian Liberal Government have raised concerns about the effects on emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24648977-601,00.html

  25. [Bring on a referendum to abolish the states.]

    I’d vote for that.

    My wife had to write an essay on housing policy in SA regarding clients with mental health issues, based on the Social Inclusion Report released in SA a little while ago. She asked me to go to the Adelaide Uni Library to get some stuff out. Every bloody state has commisioned reports on housing for the mentally ill, which I dutifully borrowed and lugged home. Six of the bloody things which must have cost millions of dollars. Each state then had to work with it’s own little organisations to implement something.

    It’s an appalling waste of resources and time, and nothing happens. No-one is accountable. If you had a few experts on a national board dealing with a few Departments, there would be accountability, expertise and transparency so we could see if we made things better or not. At the moment, it’s a big mish-mash of cost and blame shifting.

  27. Haha that’s funny. Adam, in his 110% support of all Labor decisions, is torn, and has to choose between supporting fed Labor, or state Labor on this issue, so what does he reply with?

    “Bring on a referendum to abolish the states.”

    Classic Carr.

  30. [One of the besetting weaknesses of the blogotariat (like the printotariat, only moreso) is the obsessive desire to OVER-ANALYSE EVERYTHING.]

    True.

    [IT WON’T MEAN ANYTHING.]

    Not true. The electorate presents a fascinating contrast – Port Pirie at one end, the Clare Valley at the other. What if we get a huge swing at the former end and a modest one at the latter, as per the Gippsland by-election? Will that really “not mean anything”?

  31. William

    [What if we get a huge swing at the former end and a modest one at the latter, as per the Gippsland by-election? Will that really “not mean anything”?]

    There are going to be a lot of Labor people telling us that it doesn’t mean anything.

    Both ends of the electorate fared poorly in the Country Health Plan and none of the four upgraded “hub” hospitals are in the electorate (what a surprise, it’s a safe Lib seat). Port Pirie at least has Whyalla Hospital fairly close but the Clare Valley really got shafted. That might even up a preferential swing in Port Pirie due to ETS concerns. But as you say, there’s going to be a lot of analysis of the results.

  32. “none of the four upgraded “hub” hospitals are in the electorate (what a surprise, it’s a safe Lib seat)”

    Frome on paper appears a safe Lib seat, but when you consider rural seats, it is the most likely, apart from Stuart, to fall to Labor, now and in recent elections.

    It does say a lot about SA rural seats…

  33. bob

    The Lib=rural and Labor = suburban divide is pretty dramatic in SA isn’t it.

    I looked at what electorates the four “hub” hospitals are in. Given that Labor has only one rural electorate, it’s amazing that three of the four hospitals are in electorates held by members of the Rann Government….

    Whyalla is in Giles held by Labor.
    Berri is in Chaffey, held by our Water Minister
    Mt Gambier is held by the Agriculture Minster
    Pt Lincoln is in the Liberals Flinders

    Looks like Rann can afford to hold his nerve on Country Health. He doesn’t have a lot to lose.

  34. “Given that Labor has only one rural electorate, it’s amazing that three of the four hospitals are in electorates held by members of the Rann Government….”

    Oh come now. Three of the four hospitals are in electorates held by non-Labor MPs.

    Mt Gambier is held by a Liberal turned independent (Rory McEwen), and Chaffey is held by an SA National (Karlene Maywald). Both supported a Liberal government in 2002, when Liberal turned independent (Peter Lewis) sided with the Labor MPs to create a majority on the floor.

    In 2006, all the polling suggested Labor would romp it home – gain a majority and then some. Yet despite this, during the 02-06 term, Maywald and McEwen were put in to the Labor ministry and were promised they would keep their portfolios – something that typically is not Labor-like. McEwen is retiring in 2010 and is a near certainty to revert to the Liberals unless some high profile independent comes out of nowhere, and Maywald is looking shaky herself, but all in all only one of four hubs are in Labor MP electorates.

  35. It’s a bit rich to confine the accusation of over-analysis to the blogotariat. Which I appreciate you weren’t doing (per se) but I’m just saying.

    You want over-analysing, wait until you see what the Tiser manages to pull from the poll result if its anything more than the smallest of swings to the Libs. I’m just thankful it will be in January and most of the journo’s will be on holidays.

  36. Not everything is going the Liberals’ way. Yesterday The Advertiser reported that defeated Kingston MHR Kym Richardson would no longer be contesting the marginal state seat of Mawson because he was facing possible criminal charges of impersonating a police officer. Richardson, a former police officer, said he was seeking legal advice over possible criminal charges relating to a telephone call he allegedly made from Parliament House in Canberra after his son, Jayce, was charged with assault. Mawson, held by Leon Bignell, is Labor’s second most marginal seat in the state parliament.

  37. Bowe, your Nov 28 update – “Its map and profile of the electorate can be viewed here.”

    The here link goes to their news section which is blank.

  41. Noms close at midday, only another 30 mins to go… I wonder when they’ll release the list to the media?

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more independents in the mix…

    I wonder if Family First will run? Considering they got 5.2% in 2006. But some of that could have been a protest Liberal vote.

  45. Some gos I heard recently.
    The Greens are quietly optimistic of improving their vote from last federal and state levels by a small but significant amount.
    During the Federal campaign the Nationals candidate for Grey Wilbur Klein was frequently critical of Coalition policies.
    Since then he has become State President of the Nationals.
    Now at this Frome election the nationals are NOT giving their second preference to the Liberals.
    Significant?

  46. Not really. They’re giving their 2nd pref to the independent, and surely the Liberals will come next. I can’t see any other party taking their next pref.

    And of course the Green vote will improve. It won’t exactly go backward… no doubt disaffected left Labor voters will move to the Greens in small numbers.

  47. The Nationals are running a Democrats-style split ticket. Brock gets their second preference, then they give voters a choice of Labor or Liberal for third.

    Labor are giving their second preference to Brock (not that it should matter) and Brock is giving his second preference to the Nats.

    I used to live in Port Pirie and Brock is popular. The combined Brock/Nat vote should go close to pinching second position and therefore possibly winning on preferences.

  48. Thanks for the info Michael!

    First state by-election in 15 years, only 4 days away! I’m excited! One can only hope that Brock manages to get over the line on prefs.

  49. I travelled through Frome just before Christmas and noted a large number of national party signs around towns such as Clare, Penwortham and Watervale – so it will be interesting to see how they poll on Saturday – could be some possibility of the Nationals running second I suppose, but I somehow doubt it.

  50. Thanks for the update William.

    So Nats and Labor prefing Brock, and Greens not prefing anyone. I think it’ll be Liberal v Brock, and hopefully Brock gets over the line on prefs.

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