Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Being in Opposition is really bringing out the worst in the Liberals – which is saying something, given their low standards when in government.

  3. 497 [The backbench are getting very rowdy which is always a sign of weak leadership.]

    Adam I have never seen so many points of order taken from members in the far reaches of the Liberal backbench as this year. It makes sense to me that if the frontbench isn’t leading then the rabble will respond from the back of the parliament.

  5. It also shows how poor their research is. Boyce’s question was laughably easy for Evans to hit for six, and then she followed up with a supplmentary that just ignored what he had said, and that’s when he actually got angry, which I’ve never seen before.

  7. Thank you Adam in Canberra. I’m just a bit biased myself, though probably just a bit more leftish (Vietnam War and Jo in Q’l’d regime – very very bad for human beings). Nice summation and sounds pretty much on the mark. Nifty, if you could do some sort of maybe weekly summation on William’s site??

  8. Steve, yes, and when cretins like Tuckey and Randall try to assert themselves they always go too far and embarrass the front bench. Tuckey got chucked out for three days (second offence) yesterday for blatant defiance of the chair, thus derailing whatever line Turnbull was trying to develop.

  10. Quote of the week belongs to the Liberal National shadow minister for Child safety in the Queensland parliament, for sheer stupidity her quote scores ten out of ten.

    [Mr LUCAS:
    The question is who gave the story to the
    Gold Coast Bulletin
    about event No. 1 and who took the photographs of event No. 2 and gave them to the
    Cairns Post
    ? We know that the member for Currumbin is not in the shots. Did she take the photographs and did she make them available?

    Mrs STUCKEY:
    I rise to a point of order. I find any reference to me offensive and I ask that it be withdrawn.

    Mr SPEAKER:
    There is no point of order.]

  11. Hockey gave me a good laugh today, always nice to see how low the Libs stoop with their questions. I wonder if it’s the first time the word ‘transsexual’ has been said in parliament?

    Mr HOCKEY (3.02 pm)—My question is to the
    Acting Prime Minister. I refer the Acting Prime Minister
    to media reports that Dean Mighell, the Secretary of
    the Electrical Trades Union, spent $80,000 from his
    own workers’ redundancy fund, Protect, on an extraordinary
    trip to London that included business class
    flights, meals, drinks, valet service, internet, in-house
    movies, booze and other items including a phone call
    to a transsexual escort by the name of Suzana. Is this
    an appropriate use of workers’ redundancy funds? Is
    the Acting Prime Minister aware that the member for
    Deakin is a former organiser for the redundancy fund?
    Can the Acting Prime Minister assure the House that
    the member for Deakin was not involved in the distribution
    of almost $1.4 million of the funds that were
    used to buy a house for Kevin Harkins, the union’s
    state secretary and former candidate for the Labor
    Party at the last election?

  12. Why do they hold so grimly to a turkey like Tuckey? Not bad enough that he is a convicted criminal, he heavied a state police minister on behalf of a family member.

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/08/22/1061529333629.html

    He was also disloyal to Howard in the run-up to the election.

    If the Liberals are to be judged by the company they keep – as they do with Labor and their union associations – then the judgement is not a very good one.

  14. I am a bit out of step with most of the people on this blog refarding the ABC. I really dont believe that they are biased in their coverage. I do believe that the legendary journalistic standards of the past are sadly absent in the newer crop of senior reporters. Michael Brissendon so obviously takes a poll of the press gallery before bothering to say anything, I cannot remember a single instance where he has not toed the consensus line on any topic at all. He is just so utterly predictable as to be sleep inducing with his “analysis”.He is a waste of time. Chris Uhllman is as shallow as a summer mirage, and of as much interest. He is utterly out of his depth, even in these days of of much lowered standards. He should get a job with the Riverina Irrigator or some such as local government commentator. Much more his style. Even Kerry O’Brien can drive me crazy sometimes with his single minded pursuit of the ultra trivial gotcha word. The other night he was trying to get Wayne Swan to say “recession” or something and went on and on at it.Would it have added anything to our knowledge of the GFC if he had ultimately suceeded in doing so? No, it was just Kerry masturbating in public at our expense. And he is the best of them, although Ticky Fullarton and Leigh Sales are fast overtaking the field.

    Is all this a symptom of political interference or just fiscal starvation?

  15. Sorry, William, suggestion that there be some sort of summation of the main play in both the House and the Senate from Adam in Canberra and some one of equal stature from the other side, over the week? I reckon it would be a gas.

  17. Adam, I would certainly appreciate a report or two from you on the doings of the House each week if you could spare the time. I have invariably enjoyed your postings, and your honesty in stating your biases. Thanking you and William in anticipation.

  18. Michael Cusack, I reckon there are a number of answers to your question. Bushfire Bill has posted any number of critical analyses of the ABC and MSM, and I would also refer you to Political Sword, access via Possum’s site for excellent, and evolving analysis of the MSM of which the ABC is a part. I personally would argue, that even if you’re up against it in terms of service delivery, you owe it to the people you’re ultimately responsible to, to give it your best shot. The ABC currently, in my view, is c%$p, on the whole.

  19. [suggestion that there be some sort of summation of the main play in both the House and the Senate from Adam in Canberra and some one of equal stature from the other side]

    No such person exists. Were it so, I agree it would be a very fine thing to have a two-headed weekly round-up of parliament appearing as its own post. Failing that, I encourage Adam to keep up the good work in comments.

  21. A major problem the Liberals have yet to face is what will be their policies given that Australians may well be like the Americans and made a solid shift to supporting leftish policy.

    This link out of LP is an interesting overview of what Americans now support.

    America Is a Center-Left Country No Matter How Much the Corporate Media Say Otherwise
    http://www.alternet.org/election08/106276/america_is_a_center-left_country_no_matter_how_much_the_corporate_media_say_otherwise/?page=3

    Which reminds me, Workchoices still lingers among the LNP like the smell of rotting flesh (Howard’s).

  22. Harry SO @518. I obviously didnt make myself sufficiently clear. I agree with you that the political coverage on the ABC is often crap, especially from the two I nominated, but it is incompetent crap and not biased crap.

  23. O.K. bludgers, the 3 legged cat is asleep, himself indoors is not being polled, and Kev’s off to Washington….. Mr. Rudd goes to Washington. Mr Turnbull gets really, really upset about this and decides to , what, go to Washington himself? Will he take economy? Business ? What if no one notices him? Oh, the ignominy! Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke.

  25. William, is it really the case that there is no one from a more rightish sort of perspective, who could comment in the way I was suggesting? If that’s the case, I should probably just declare myself a total nong.

  26. TP, that’s quite right. Obama is going to become the pole star of world politics for at least the next few years, and blame for everything bad in the world will be heaped on Bush and conservatism generally. Whether this is fair or not is irrelevant, that’s the way it will be. Rudd is very nicely placed to ride the tide of Obamaism, as the forthcoming love fest in Washington will no doubt demonstrate. Turnbull is not only saddled with WorkChoices and climate denialism, but also the GFC, which world is blaming on Bush and conservative deregulationism. Even if Rudd’s responses don’t work, the blame will still not fall on him.

    Look at what’s happening in the UK. “The poll for yesterday’s London Times put the Conservatives on 41 per cent (down four points), with Labour on 35 per cent (up five points) and the Liberal Democrats up one point to 16 per cent. This was the lowest Conservative lead for months and the best showing for Labour since early this year. Half those surveyed (52 per cent) said Mr Brown was the best prime minister “right now, to deal with Britain’s economy in recession”, as against just 32 per cent for Mr Cameron. If Brown can come back from the dead like this, Rudd can expect to stay well ahead into next year.

  28. One of the more interesting things to be shown this week is how many conflicting messages the Coalition has floating around at the moment. This showed itself by the weird insistence on passing a private senators’ bill on the reviewing of terorrism laws on the same day as a report came down on Medicare funding for abortions (ordered by right-wing loon Senator Barnett). Also weird was the stern words had between Brandis and Joyce in the chamber over Joyce’s comments on the Same-Sex entitlements bills. All the noise emerging doesn’t resemble a more cohesive message that Oppositions need to put out to be electable.

  29. the poor hapless opposition, cant get a trick right. when they try to scuttle Evans with the immigration case, he cleans them up. they really seem to take their talking points from the likes of the OO. Whereas the OO and the MSM cheersquad seem to take up and applaud anything Howard said/did, this opposition seems to take their lead in the first place from them. They have no strategy and cant grasp the fact that the Rudd government is POPULAR. They need to redefine and review themselves, but thankfully for Labor (less so for democracy) they are in too much denial to do do. If Turnbull was the great saviour he was supposed to be, he would have put a stop to the Nelson populism/ story of the day for a large scale vision and review. He missed an opporunity and the 62/22 PPM says it all

  31. Yup, Adam in Canberra,one scenario is that Malcolm and his party are still so caught up in the business of being Howard’s party, they haven’t figured it out yet. Or, Turnbull knows, but is caught by whom he is beholden to for the leadership. Either way, it’s quite delicious.

  32. The number of declared conservatives at this site can be counted on one hand, and even most of them seem to have gone quiet lately. If any of them think they can comment authoritatively on what goes on in parliament on a weekly basis, I invite them to volunteer. Perhaps there are Greens partisans out there who might want to put their hands up. Unfortunately, as Adam points out, this is ill-timed as we’re about to enter the silly season.

  33. Oh, sorry, Oz, it’s my bloke who got polled by Neilsen. It’s probably silly, but I refer to him as him indooors. He thinks it’s amusing, so I guess that’s O.K.

  35. The problem with Liberals at this site is that they mostly just amuse themselves with vituperation rather than serious comment, like GP. What’s become of ESJ? He was reasonable sometimes.

    Oh I had forgotten about the astounding hypocrisy of the “inspector of terrorism bill” or whatever it was called, moved the Judith Troeth and supported by Brandis. When the Howard terrorism bills were brought it, without consultation or notice, anyone who criticised one comma of them was called soft on terrorism and virtually accused of treason by the Coalition. Now in opposition they’ve suddenly gone all civil libertarian on us! I nearly gagged on my muffin.

  40. Exactly, Adam. There’s got to be some way, William, this medium could do a more effective job of communicating what’s important, as opposed to the idiotic and trivial. What does your boss, the Green guy think about this stuff?

  42. William and Adam, if you are going to organise something along the lines I was suggesting, can I please, nah, F%%%%%t tell you what us political tragics want. We want information. We can make up our own minds.

  43. Michael @ 522. Incompetance becomes bias. Witness tonights’s news report on Rudd’s visit to the G20. The faux world weary cynical tone infecting all abc commentators in regard to this visit illustrates their refusal to examine why this summit is taking place, in favour of demeaning its chance of some success. So they mock the idea that Rudd is participating in a possibly worthwhile event, and continue their shallow diatribe that he will be given the cold shoulder and has sullied the nation’s international reputation.

    This from an editorial in the West Australian which attempts to excoriate Rudd over phonygate just about sums up the paucity of that argument “Regardless of whether Mr Rudd had any direct responsibility for a supposed leak….” For that read “regardless thats its a bunch of cobbled together bullshit”

  45. At least the Libs have learnt to give the “Kevin747” thing a rest.

    Though I wouldn’t put it past Randall to rock up to work and give it a spin.

  46. Hello hairy nose and welcome. I’ll have a yak with you tomorrow if that’s O.K. cause it’s night to all bludgers from me and the 3 legged cat. I’ve no idea why cats do that strange cello licking number. Is there a Ken Henry of cats around to explain?

  47. One good test to get an idea how the media are behaving is to assess how they would be talking if it were PM Howard and not PM Rudd.

    They most certainly would be singing Howard’s praises if it were him making economic policies in response to the GFC and the trip to the G20 meeting. And it wouldn’t matter what his policies were or what it was he said. Likewise with this phone leak nonsense.

    Howard basically trashed one half of American politics for the specific purpose of helping the other side get elected yet there was no huge out cry by the media.

  48. It will be interesting nearer to election time to see what the Liberal Party policies will be.

    They are going to have to move to the left and occupy the same ground as Labor if they are to have any chance. Rudd would have by that time been helping business quite a lot with stimulus packages, tax breaks and the like that the LNP are going to have trouble taking that ground.

    Their record so far seems to have been:

    No action on ETS and Climate Change
    Anti-Fuel watch no policy on reducing fuel prices
    Workchoices still lives
    Tax breaks for Ferrari buyers
    Alcopops for teenage girls
    Anti-Obama Democrat – still no repudiation of Howard.
    Anti-efforts to address the GFC or so its seems from their inconsistent behaviour.
    Anti-tax breaks for people who don’t need or cannot afford Private Health.
    Anti-RBA
    Anti-Treasury

  50. Triton

    #392
    “Ron @ 364, it’s my impression that a leak is accepted fact, but Rudd is using the false parts to argue that it’s not a leak if it’s not true.”

    Triton I used to get a minority of Obama suporters using a sentence as you made above …with unrealizing pride Its unwittingingly circular logic , you start at one spot , go around , but end back at th start

    If you like to work backwards , Rudd says th comment was not made , he therefore says there is no leak , well that follows obviousley how can there be a leak of something that was never said Now Rudd is not going to say more than that simply bcause he answered th point AND furthermore to do so would require divulging what was said between 2 Leaders that crucialy had nothing to do with what was not said

    You will find that a John howard , bob Hawke or any aussie PM would not countenanse being tricked into so divulging any part of a conversation either on National Security grounds (other than what rudd has done and thats to say that comment did not occur)

    Whlst th greens anyway will probably kill it , they soon will when they realize an inquiry would require getting into who is th non existent Media’s sourse , and asking for a media’s sourse in a Senate Inquiry thats a no no issue in ‘oz’ unless you want th Media to tear your Party apart

    And finaly , th RIDDLE…..they say thiefs ar dumb , well so ar hoaxers You may be able to ring th TAB and place a bet on spot , but Ruddy just can not pick up th phone to George Bush “cold” to talk solely about th G20 and hit “cold” George with G20 comments…Geroge Bush would hav known in advanse briefed what th call was about , about th G20 , th hoax reely relied on peoples not understanding how Leaders calls ar made , rather than what occurs on West Wing fantasy

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