Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. whatever way you cut it the fibs face a long long time in opposition and on cold porridge.

    clearly this hangs very heavy on them, so much so they have no problem breaking the cutlery smashing the furniture and crapping on the footpath. That approach is not going to get them back in power.

    next week on ‘the rodent years” the public will get further reminders of what they were like.

  2. Poor old liberal supporters, hanging in with 45% 2PP support but being dragged down by a leader that can only manage 24% PPM and falling.

    I suppose I’d be clutching at straws too if I was hanging my hat on a man of such persuasive talents that he couldn’t overcome the combined forces of such heavyweights as Kerry Jones and Sophie Panopoulos at his last major outing. Turnbull is a myth and every time he opens his mouth he convinces more voters of the fact. No amount of journalists blowing wind up his arse is going to keep him afloat.

  3. From scorpio’s link @ 448

    A BOOZY night out for Liberal National Party politicians…

    This changes everything. I wasn’t aware that they were working. LNP pollies are well known for developing their most cherished (and expensive) policies at long boozy nosh ups, especially if they have an envelope to do the economic modelling on!

  4. 447 Dovif – This line of attack is what makes the Libs a laughing stock. Is that really the best you can do? Kevin must be doing a fantastic job where it counts if it is.
    Amazing stuff.

  5. Changing the subject to the price of petrol at the moment. Have we been dudded for the past six or eight months with the high price that we were paying in for petrol over that period? We were told that the high price was partly due to the demand for oil from China and India. I wouldn’t of thought that the demand for oil from those two countries would have decreased in the last month or so. If anything I think it would have increased as more and more people in those countries find themselves affluent enough to be able to purchase a car. So who has been making a killing?

  6. Gary Bruce

    You are not very good at telling between something serious and something satirical aren’t you. How about this:

    One of the greatest accomplishment of the Rudd ERA is the fulfillment of his promise to the electorate before the electrion that he will do something about Petrol prices.

    As a lot of commentator pointed out at the time. Australia is too small to have any impact on Petrol prices, which are controlled by the oil cartel and sellers in Singapore.

    However Rudd was proven right afterall, what we did not know is that Kevin07 could cause a Recession08 that would reduce the price of Petrol to affordable level.

    We are all in DEBT to Rudd for sticking to his promise

    Since Rudd had declared war on Extreme Capitalist for causing this global meltdown, we are left with the realisation that Kevin Rudd should from now on be know as Extreme Capitalise. From now on we should refer to Rudd as your majersty ECKR

  7. [Australia is too small to have any impact on Petrol prices, which are controlled by the oil cartel and sellers in Singapore]

    And yet Fuelwatch worked in WA. Go figure…

  8. all the fibs have left is their hate.

    No policies
    No talent
    No power
    No future
    No Hope and No hopers
    No relevance

    We see it daily in the parliament in the media and also here.

    They are desperate to be relevant again. Downer and the others who bailed out read the situation correctly.

  9. Dario

    Fuelwatch was never proven to work

    Fuelwatch happened at the same time as Coles and Woolworth moving into the Petrol Market in Perth, the cause of the 2c decrease cannot be determined

    That was what the Government department told Kevin Rudd, who did not listen to them

  10. Yes dovif, what an amazing accomplishment by the PM. Rudd said that he will do all he can to lower petrol prices, and yes, as you have said yourself, he has delivered.

    No dovif, Rudd did not cause any recession, you silly sod 🙂 but Rudd has acted from the front dealing with world leaders in this time of crisis. So the Libs had better come up with something better than phonegate, and fast otherwise its going to be real lonly in opposition after the next election lol.

  11. [Fuelwatch was never proven to work]

    In your opinion

    [Fuelwatch happened at the same time as Coles and Woolworth moving into the Petrol Market in Perth, the cause of the 2c decrease cannot be determined]

    Did Coles and Woolworths moving in to other state markets result in a 2c decrease?

  12. Well that’s just great. We can all go on and keep playing two up when we go out and buy some petrol. Or for some, continue to wait in line on cheap tuesdays.

    Why? All because of the cheap whore politics of the Liberal Party.

    Liberal supporters must be so proud!

  13. 460 – Of course dovif your arguement is based on a false premise but don’t let that get in the way of a very cleverly constructed satirical piece.
    (Now that’s what I call irony).

  14. Dario

    It has to do with logistics, while independants have to organise for third party to transport the Petrol, Coles and Woolworth do it independantly.

    That was from the Federal Government department leak, I did not make it up, that was the one where Rudd is looking for the leak.

    Gary – thank you, apart from a few hick ups he had done a good job, but he is better than Howard to ridicule

  15. [That was from the Federal Government department leak]

    I don’t really care where it’s from. There have been all kinds of research done on this with varying results. One thing is clear. Fuelwatch gives consumers information about where the cheapest price in their area is. That can ONLY be good for consumers in the long run. Talk of Fuelwatch increasing prices is just utter rubbish.

  16. Number 464:

    [Fuelwatch was never proven to work]

    A few of your fellow “Liberals” would beg to differ …

    ABC News, 29 May 2008:
    [Queensland Liberal leader Mark McArdle has contradicted his federal counterparts and expressed support for FuelWatch.

    Mr McArdle says FuelWatch is worth considering.

    “… certainly it is an initiative that appears to have worked in Western Australia and I think it should be looked at here in Queensland and across Australia as well,” he said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/29/2259298.htm

    ______

    news.com.au, 28 May 2008:
    [FuelWatch works in WA, says Lib senator

    FuelWatch is helping West Australian motorists find cheaper petrol, a Liberal senator says, putting her at odds with fellow opposition MPs.

    “I think FuelWatch is working,” Senator Judith Adams told reporters.]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23771512-29277,00.html

  17. Dave at 463 wrote:

    [all the fibs have left is their hate.

    No policies]

    The “hate” part I would agree with. A more belligerent, sullen pack of sour-grapes born-to-rulers would be difficult to imagine.

    But I wouldn’t say they have no policies. The philosophy that gave employees the vicious SerfChoices burns hot and bright in the Liberal breast. Whether they come clean with the electorate before it’s too late to be ensnared again is another matter …

  18. Well we had better get Ron Wilson on channel 10 to shut up and not tell us where the cheapest fuel is. It might cause the price to go up. Has there ever been a more comical stance taken than this by the Liberal Party.

    No that’s right, that’s who Lightweight stands for. The rich oil companies!

  19. Gus, they stake out their own constituency and advance their causes. If observing it for what it is – the big end of town – is considered by them an act of “class war”, so be it. It originates with them: their deliberate “choices” of constituency.

  20. re post 457.

    enjaybee, of course we have been dudded by the price of petrol. EVERYTHING IS A RORT. Petrol prices, the stock market, annual reports, the gallops, the trots, real estate agents, divorce lawyers etc. etc. etc.

    Where there is money there is corruption.

  21. I thought I’d turn around the situation and imagine if JH and Bush had had the supposed conversation.
    1.The AFP would have been called in,Howard would had a press conference “alleging unknown elements are out to destabilise the good intentions of oz and the us.”
    …..you know the rest.

    But noooo,its kevvie and how dare he not respond to the jackals, i mean since howard there has been no-one to give em a bone.poor sooks

  22. dovif @ 460:

    “One of the greatest accomplishment of the Rudd ERA is the fulfillment of his promise to the electorate before the electrion that he will do something about Petrol prices.”

    I challenge you to find one place where Rudd promised to do anything about petrol prices that he hasn’t done or attempted to do.

    The idiotic opposition to Fuelwatch is just that… idiotic. The Libs are just opposing it for the sake of opposing it. ‘Magic Tuesday’ is a rubbish rort which has not been demonstrated to help consumers at all.

  23. [‘Magic Tuesday’ is a rubbish rort which has not been demonstrated to help consumers at all.]

    Well, yes. Why not have petrol cheaper on the average every day, than just on (part of) Tuesdays?

    “Magic Tuesday” is evidence in itself that the oil companies and their retailers are rorting the system.

    Q. What’s the “magic” difference between Tuesday and any other day?

    A. Nothing. As soon as everyone lines up on Tuesdays to benefit from the imaginary lower prices the prices get jacked up.

  24. BB and Itep

    And now, every time I drive past a service station in the afternoon and see the price 10c higher than it was in the morning (when I made the decision to fill up there in the afternoon) I’ll be cursing the Libs and Xenephon. And with stuff like that, you are reminded of it several times a week, each and every week right up to the next election (when you can bet we’ll be reminded of it from Labor as well!)

  25. Well, there you go, fellow bludgers. Another day of extraordinary and ongoing global economic turmoil, and what does Her Maj’s Loyal Opposition have to offer us? Anything? Anything? Nup. No wonder the polls don’t move.
    BTW, just a thought. Maybe one of the reasons there has been previous bleatings about Kevin747 and so forth, is that the Libs are actually, really scared of Julia G. and Lindsay T. in the House.

  26. So they should be. They were both brilliant today. Big Joe made a total fool of himself as per usual. And in the Senate, the normally somnolent Chris Evans bit Sue Boyce’s head off. He should get angry more often.

  27. Adam in Canberra, clearly you get to watch up close more than the likes of me, who are working during the day. It would be very interesting to hear more your views of how things are playing, in both the House and the Senate. What, in particular, was the Chris Evans/Sue Boyce thingy all about?

  28. Well there’s this lady in Western Australia who was going to be deported by the Department of Immigration and her son has down syndrome

    Chris Evans, the Minister of Immigration, said that he was reviewing the case and would make a decision soon. He, quite rightly, granted the lady permanent residency. The Opposition started harping on about broken systems blah blah, not looking after the disabled and abouthnow Evans had made the family wait 6 months.

    Evans fired up and said “Well she hadn’t been waiting 6 months, she’d been waiting five or six years because YOU LOT twice rejected her application for permanent residency”.

    That shut them up.

  29. Thanks, Oz. Bloody hell. Shakes head in ongoing horror at the depths to which the remaining rump of neo-conism that is the Libs. will sink. They have no shame, but a good deal of fear. Quite rightly.

  30. Also of slight interest was the change to the way Senate Question Time will be conducted for the next two weeks. Ministers will be constrained to a 2 minutes answer to main questions and then questioners will be allowed 2 supplementary questions, with 1 minute answers to each of those.

  31. The Liberal Party and their demented cousins, The Nationals, are dinosaurs. The only reason they haven’t been reduced to a rump in Parliament is due to a corrupt process with ridiculously high levels of business influence and a lopsided media.

  32. Oh for whatever imaginary friend in the sky there may be, give me strength. The ABC TV News are still banging on about…..”the leak”. Gotta go and lodge yet another complaint they’ll ignore. Warning. The 3 legged cat is loose and investigating. Postings may get scrambled. No. Second thought, he’s gone for a bit of a nap. The 3 legged cat for Leader of the Opposition, I say.

  33. The day Red Kerry leaves the ABC will be a sad day indeed.

    The sad thing is the ABC, by comparison, isn’t THAT bad. That’s not so much a positive reflection on the ABC as an extremely negative view of the rest of our media. Bias’ aside, I wouldn’t find many who would argue that we lack real independent, investigative journalism. Is this a phenomenon isolated here? Or is it worldwide? I presume the latter due to a combination of inept management with both eyes on profit and cost-cutting.

  34. Harry, I’m grossly biased so it’s hard for me to make judicious comments, but I really don’t think the Libs are landing a punch in either house at the moment. Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Tanner and Roxon are all well on top of their game, and no-one else gets to say much. There is no obvious weak link at present. The Senate frontbench isn’t brilliant (apart from Wong, but she’s a bit quiet) but they’re not up against much, except for Brandis who is smart in a nasty sort of way. Carr is a plodder, and has been getting a hard time, but obviously he has a stinker of a portfolio at the moment. On the other side, Turnbull is not exactly bad, he’s just out of tune with the zeitgeist, which is “things are crook but Rudd and co are making sincere efforts to deal with problems they didn’t cause,” and there’s not much he can do about it. Bishop and Hockey are no help at all – Hockey has become very surly and does dumb things like his question about Dean Mighell today. Pyne, Dutton, Keenan are lightweights. Abbott is obviously seething with frustration that he doesn’t get to do more. The Nats are invisible. The backbench are getting very rowdy which is always a sign of weak leadership.

  35. I don’t think that will happen quickly or at all. The MD board etc will serve terms then the new so called bi-partisan sort of stuff comes in.

    Long gone are the days of appointing a david hill or even better paul keating to go in and really do effective rodent control. The “reforms” are nonsense. The fibs will just go back to appointing their mates once labor is voted out.

    The only way to deal with the fibs is to have your boot firmly on their throat all the time. Thats all they respond to.

    I wish keating was back to slap them around for a while – like at cat dealing with rats.

  36. If in seeking to bring about reform and meaningful change, you have “roadblocks”, then this beat up by the ABC exposes the said “roadblocks” .

    If anything the dolts in the ABC are just standing out by their willingness to toe the fibs line.

    As I mentioned previously re other smears the same names appear over and over.More interesting is the way the line gets spun thru the “clique”

  37. Oz I just read your post at 489. So the Liberals were complaining that Evans had kept this women waiting for 6 months for her residency YET they had rejected her application twice and made her wait 5 to 6 years.

    Sheezus Kris!.

    That could have broken the world hypcrisy record.

    They have no shame. The Liberals would get paid for servicing animals!

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