12.40am. If the election had been single-member first-past-the-post on current boundaries, the result would have been National 41 seats, Labour 21, Maori 5, minor parties 3. Make that preferential, and give Labour 75 per cent of Greens preferences and split the others evenly, and there’s little change: National 40, Labour 22, Maori 5, minor parties 3.
10.55pm. Regarding that ninth Green Party seat, Antony Green writes: “Unlike Australia, they do not count special (absent, postal etc) votes progressively, but as a lump in about 12 days time. It will be two weeks before they do the final allocation of seats.” Strong Green performance on special votes has been a notable feature of past elections.
10.45pm. Green Party leader Jeanette Fitzsimons addressing supporters. Haven’t mentioned them much because the result has left them marginalised. The party has gained two seats, from six to eight, although Fitzsimons is holding out for an ninth. Not bad, but less than the polls had indicated.
10.38pm. Labour and NZ First principals venting about the media, in time-honoured fashion.
10.33pm. Peter Dunne confirmed in his speech 10 minutes ago that he would back a National government, and there’s no doubt left that that’s what we’ll be seeing.
10.28pm. However, Labour has taken the lead in Christchurch Central, where they trailed earlier after winning by 23.7 per cent in 2005 – though I can’t speak for redistribution effects.
10.20pm. Nikki Kaye has won for National in Auckland Central, in what seems to be the biggest electorate seat boilover. Labour won by 9.3 per cent in 2005, presumably on different boundaries.
10.14pm. Remember that when Elections NZ says 90 per cent counted, they mean 90 per cent of booths counted. The ones outstanding are presumably big ones, mostly in Auckland. So the current 45.6-33.6 gap might narrow a little further than you’d think.
10.01pm. Peter Dunne home and hosed in Ohariu, Maori seats now definitely 5-2. Only question is how things are looking beyond 61 seats. National still slowly losing ground, but will win at least 58 seats, ACT NZ looking very good for five, maybe only four if they’re unlucky. No question that we’ll be seeing a National-ACT NZ government.
9.48pm. Antony: “The best estimate I see for the new Parliament is 58 National, 5 ACT plus Peter Dunne – Right with 64, then 44 Labor, 8 Green, Jim Anderton, giving the Left 53, plus 5 Maori. 122 seat Parliament.” Third on the ACT NZ list is Roger Douglas, Treasurer in David Lange’s Labour government in the 1980s famed for his free-market reforms, who could well be back in cabinet.
9.45pm. National vote edges down enough to cost them a seat, so make that National 59 and ACT NZ 5.
9.37pm. We’re likely looking at an overhang of two, so 61 will be a majority with an independent Speaker. Current figures suggest National 60 and ACT NZ five, although the former are fading a little.
9.33pm. Little change in Te Tai Tonga with a big advance in the vote, so the Maori seats are firming up as five Maori Party and two Labour Party, with a very remote possibility that Labour might yet make that 4-3 with Te Tai Tonga.
9.30pm. Big advance in the Ohariu count, but the vote has changed very little, so Peter Dunne should be home.
9.28pm. National Party down to 46.7 per cent with 56 per cent counted, so the prospect of majority government is diminishing.
9.21pm. Antony sticking with his 45-35 prediction.
9.20pm. New Zealand First surely gone now, fading to 4.3 per cent with 47.4 counted.
9.19pm. Labour beginning to gain a little on the National Party as the southern Auckland vote comes in.
9.18pm. Maori seats. Labour home in Ikaroa-Rawhiti; probably done enough in Hauraki-Waikato; only slightly behind in Te Tai Tonga 44.2 to 41.8 per cent, but with 60.3 counted the Maori Party candidate is probably home. Other four seats held by the Maori Party.
9.15pm. Local observers excited the National candidate is ahead in Auckland Central, and in the hunt in Christchurch Central.
9.13pm. Silly woman on Radio New Zealand complaining that UNZF and Progressive Party are in parliament with a small share of the national vote. Of all the criticisms to make of MMP …
9.11pm. Peter Dunne back down from 33.2 to 32.6 per cent in Ohariu with 26.1 per cent. Still likely to win with Labour second on 29.7 per cent, though worth keeping an eye on. It’s probably only his own seat that’s at stake: party’s national vote is 0.9 per cent, whereas they would need at least 1.5 per cent for a second seat (more if NZ First makes the threshold).
9.04pm. National vote count up to 34 per cent, and the National vote still a strong 47.8 per cent. However, ACT NZ is looking at five seats and far the most likely result is a National-ACT coalition. Antony Green discusses talk of Peter Dunne being made Speaker.
8.58pm. Count in Ohariu up to 19.6, Peter Dunne gains a bit of ground from 32.1 to 33.2.
8.54pm. Antony: “Really looking like National 45%, Labour 35% at this stage. National plus ACT still looking at just reaching a majority.”
8.53pm. Commentators on 3News expect NZ First to lose ground when special votes are admitted.
8.51pm. Assuming NZ First don’t pull a rabbit out of the hat, it’s looking like the vote for excluded parties will be 6.5 per cent, meaning the National Party will need a bit under 47 per cent to get a majority.
8.50pm. Labour looking increasingly safe in the Maori seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti, leading 51.3 to 41.6 with 28.2 reporting.
8.44pm. Antony confirms that the booth votes should even up the vote in the terms I suggested earlier, to about 45-35 in favour of the National Party. Booths currently coming in are very small ones. City booths later on should see Labour and the Green Party go up (from 31.3 and 6.3 at present, to the National Party’s 48.7).
8.43pm. Jim Anderton has opened up a handy lead in Wigram, 42.4 per cent to 32.4 per cent National.
8.42pm. 15.2 per cent of booths in from Ohariu, and Peter Dunne has faded a little further to 32.1 per cent, against 29.2 per cent Labour and 28.3 per cent National.
8.35pm. Maori Party still looking good in Te Tai Tonga, leaving two of the seven in doubt but favouring Labour.
8.29pm. Labour still looking good in the Maori seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti: leading 49.7 to 43.7 with 12.9 counted (that’s 12.9 per cent of booths, not votes).
8.27pm. No great change in Ohariu with count up from 4.3 to 8.7 per cent.
8.21pm. Commentator on Radio NZ makes the point that the higher NZ First gets without crossing the threshold, the lower the vote the National Party needs for an absolute majority. At present the NZ First is almost exactly where the National Party would want it – 4.5 per cent.
8.17pm. Count in Ohariu up from 4.3 per cent to 6.5 per cent, and Peter Dunne is up from 33.2 per cent
8.15pm. Much as we saw in ACT, we appear to be in a lull between the entry of “advance” votes and booth votes in significant numbers.
8.10pm. Peter Dunne of United Future NZ is down on raw figures from 45.9 per cent to 33.2 per cent in Ohariu with 4.3 per cent counted. He may have suffered from the redistribution which changed the name of his seat from Ohariu-Belmont. At the moment it’s a tight three-horse race: Dunne 1197, National 1032, Labour 1001.
8.03pm. Antony: “The advance votes tell us National will win. But did the gap between National and Labor tighten at the end of the campaign? If it did, then it might be closer. Will Labor plus the Greens come close to National plus ACT? It doesn’t look like Peter Dunne or Jim Anderton will do anyhting other than elect themselves.”
7.58pm. No change in Maori seats: the Maori Party leads in five, but trails slightly in Ikaroa-Räwhiti and Hauraki-Waikato.
7.50pm. Antony on the advance vote: “in 2005, Labor rose from 36.8% to 41.1% at the end of the count, National from 43.5% to 39.1%, Green 4.8% to 5.3%, NZ First 6.1% to 5.7%, United NZ 3.0% to 2.7%, Maori 1.6% to 2.1%.” Does that mean the current raw figures of National 49, Labour 31.5, Green 6, NZF 4.5 should be adjusted to National 44.5, Labour 36, Green 6.5 and NZF 4?
7.48pm. Winston Peters now getting thrashed in Tauranga, and NZ First national vote has faded a little to 4.6 per cent with 4.6 per counted.
7.45pm. ACT NZ on 3.3 per cent so far, and I imagine would go higher with big Auckland booths, compared with 1.5 per cent (two seats) in 2005.
7.41pm. TVNZ projecting a slight National Party majority with 63 seats out of 123, the remainder going 40 Labour, 8 Greens, 6 Maori, 4 ACT New Zealand, one each for Progressive and United Future New Zealand. Even if the National Party is reined in a little from here, they could surely rely on backing from ACT NZ.
7.34pm. Antony (hell, just read his blog): “Models are looking better for Labor than the raw vote, but still not enough to prevent a change of government.”
7.30pm. Antony reckons we’re in for “quite a wait” to see if the National Party wins a majority – but if those are the stakes, it seems there’s very little prospect of any kind of Labour government being formed.
7.28pm. However, Labour leads 730-632 in Ikaroa-Räwhiti. Maori leads of varying sizes in the other five.
7.26pm. Antony projects five of seven Maori seats going to the Maori Party, but the first one I’ve looked at is the one reckoned Labour’s best chance of hanging on (Hauraki-Waikato), and Labour’s lead is only 490-475.
7.24pm. Antony Green reports: “Early models are matching votes up in line with current percentages, which would point to a National majority government.”
7.19pm. Very early results provide hope for NZ First: they’re bobbing around the threshold mark, and Winston Peters leads in Tauranga 236 votes to 224.
7.18pm. National vote with 3 per cent counted: National 49, Labour 32, Green 6 per cent, NZ First 4.5 per cent.
7.17pm. Jim Anderton comfortably ahead in Wigram with 2 of 64 booths reporting.
7.15pm. Peter Dunne only slightly ahead in Ohariu, with 2 of 46 booths reporting.
7.12pm. Antony Green says the “first advance votes” are in line with the polls: National high 40s, Labour mid-to-high 30s, Greens 7 per cent, NZ First 3.8 per cent.
7.10pm. It doesn’t look like they’re providing booth-level figures for tonight’s count either, which pretty much leaves us completely in the dark. In 2005 the early count looked diabolical for Labour to the untrained eye, but that was because rural booths were coming in early. If any media outlets are making the effort to match booth results, I would be pleased if someone could bring it to my attention.
7.02pm. Curses to the NZ Electoral Commission, which claims to have CSV files of booth-level results from 2005 on its site – but all the links are broken. Let’s hope it gets a lot better from here.
7.00pm. A quick guide for beginners. New Zealand has a proportional representation electoral system, which normally means the non-local observer need look no further than the national vote. However, mixed-member proportional brings the complication that minor parties must clear one of two hurdles to win seats proportional to their vote share: either they must win 5 per cent of the national vote, or win at least one constituency seat. The minor parties in play are:
- The Green Party, who current polling suggests are sure to clear 5 per cent. Notwithstanding party leader Jeanette Fitzsimons’ win in Coromandel in 1999, they will probably need to.
- New Zealand First, closely associated with its troubled leader Winston Peters and presumably in big trouble. Peters lost his constituency seat of Tuaranga in 2005, but his party scored 5.7 per cent of the national vote despite a 4.7 per cent swing. In spite of everything, Peters might have some hope of recovering Tauranga with the retirement of one-term National Party MP Bob Clarkson.
- The Maori Party, believed likely to capture most of the seven dedicated Maori electorates (it currently has four), potentially causing a significant overhang (see below).
- ACT New Zealand, the free-market party led by Rodney Hide, who retained his seat of Epsom in 2005 with 42.3 per cent of the vote against the National Party’s 33.7 per cent.
- United Future New Zealand, led by Peter Dunne, who is very likely to be re-elected in his seat of Ohariu.
- Progressive Party, led by veteran Jim Anderton who polled 46.6 per cent in his seat of Wigram in 2005.
In normal circumstances, the parliament will consist of 63 general electorates, seven Maori electorates and 50 list seats. However, these numbers can be increased in the event of an overhang, which occurs if a party wins more constituency seats than it would normally get from its share of the national vote. This is almost certain to be true of the Maori Party, which might win as many as seven seats despite having a national vote of between 2 and 3 per cent according to the polls. The Progressive Party constituency seat is also likely to be won from a negligible national vote that wouldn’t account for a seat. Taken together, that could lead to an overhang of between two and five seats, for a total of up to 125 seats rather than 120. As such, attention here will be focused on the national vote; Tauranga, Epsom, Ohariu and Wigram; and the Maori electorates.
6.10pm (NZ time). Welcome to my live coverage of the New Zealand election count. I’m getting in early here to advertise the fact that I’m doing this – polls in New Zealand do not in fact close until 7pm.
I`ll give you a clue it`s Norwegian.
cheers shows
( i think the rt hon billbo would rather us not dwell on matters theological btw)
that said i still consider yourself the equivalent of BB and in no way was i being churlish.
Sorry, condemnation by the PM @449. Doesn’t read right otherwise, you understand?
gus488, HAH, pissah! ShowsOn, I’m thinking of a term that rhymes with anchor…
[Sorry, condemnation by the PM @449. Doesn’t read right otherwise, you understand?]
Malcolm should have a stay at home day tomorrow. His explanation today of why cutting the petrol excise is now a dumb good idea, instead of a good dumb idea, was hilarious.
He’ll probably probably send Julie Scissorhands to Insiders or Meet the Press instead.
[I`ll give you a clue it`s Norwegian.]
Tampa
[gus488, HAH, pissah! ShowsOn, I’m thinking of a term that rhymes with anchor…]
Tanker?
M.V. Tampa
Holy crack hour, Robyn, what the hell are you guys imbibing this evening? Nuw Zulund votes for the sheep herders? Lead by the ..what the hell is he anyway? Get a grip.
[M.V. Tampa]
I should’ve thought of that sooner.
I wonder if they knew about its significance?
An cu
I truly respect most posters on this blog.
shows on is one of few that I truly value in terms of opinions
nuff said
(most people who know me,know that when i go mongrel i go mongrel)
[Holy crack hour, Robyn, what the hell are you guys imbibing this evening? Nuw Zulund votes for the sheep herders? Lead by the ..what the hell is he anyway? Get a grip.]
Does it really matter?
Or are you worried that now more N.Z.ers are going to come here, so the RBA will have to sell some more government bonds to cover the increase in Centrelink payments?
I doubt it. It would not have got much coverage in America and not been brought up repeatedly over years.
I was hoping it might be this fine vessel.
[shows on is one of few that I truly value in terms of opinions]
That’s only cos we usually agree.
They did have a fishing trawler but that does not have anywhere near as much Australian political significance.
Well done on the ship guess showson, and aplos if the ‘anchor’ snipe seemed a little churlish after your rejoinder to Gus, chronology being what it is etc, I was late onto the plate, Tanker is good but not quite there…
[Well done on the ship guess showson, and aplos if the ‘anchor’ snipe seemed a little churlish after your rejoinder to Gus, chronology being what it is etc, I was late onto the plate, Tanker is good but not quite there…]
I know what you meant, I just used ‘Ta’ to match with Tampa.
[They did have a fishing trawler but that does not have anywhere near as much Australian political significance.]
And it certainly would’ve been bad taste to name one SIEV X.
Shows On. The ego that masquerades as Malcolm will no doubt be out and about tomorrow, telling, nooo, demanding that President elect Obama, should do exactly what Malcolm demands. He’s looking a lot like a buffoon in my opinion.
The collapse of the neocon agenda is not complete, it would seem with the Nationals returned in N.Z. What the hell are they going to do with their economy, and how weensy they are? Are they that much bigger than Tasmania as an economy?
[I wonder if they knew about its significance?]
As the show is produced by Beyond Productions, I’m pretty sure most of the Australian Crew who work on Mythbusters would’ve realised it’s significance 🙂
[Shows On. The ego that masquerades as Malcolm will no doubt be out and about tomorrow, telling, nooo, demanding that President elect Obama, should do exactly what Malcolm demands. He’s looking a lot like a buffoon in my opinion.]
Today out there at the press conference it was just like he was waving his arms around while saying HELLO, HELLO! OVER HERE, HERE! I’m ALIVE!
He is irrelevant at the moment, and it’s killing him.
Oh, and he got a nice verbal touch up the other night from PJK.
[As the show is produced by Beyond Productions, I’m pretty sure most of the Australian Crew who work on Mythbusters would’ve realised it’s significance]
Nuts, didn’t realise it had that Oz link.
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
To the claim that only a Joh electoral system could have won government for Clarke is rubbish. It would have made the National victory bigger because it would have given the advantage to the National voting rural areas. Only a reverse of Joh (a Hoj) using Lenin`s argument that the proletarian workers votes have a right to the most weight (he actually argued that as why the results of the elected assembly, for which the elections were held after the Bolshevik takeover but still gave them an overall minority within a large leftist majority, was dissolved in his eyes legitimately (Marx predicted that the socialist revolution would come from urban industrial workers therefore according to Leninism they were more important)) (a majority of industrial urban workers voted for the Bolsheviks).
an cu
i feels as though the wires are crossed here somehow 🙁
sorry for any disrespect-what i meant about mongrel was that i would have called shows a prick,simple as that
[(Marx predicted that the socialist revolution would come from urban industrial workers therefore according to Leninism they were more important)) (a majority of industrial urban workers voted for the Bolsheviks).]
What sort of leftists did the rural / peasent types vote for?
[sorry for any disrespect-what i meant about mongrel was that i would have called shows a prick,simple as that]
And even I concede that would’ve been fair.
But honestly, my memory failed me.
Gus 473, got ya, apos from this end too, got a rush of blood on that last one, thanks for your oil on the water, cheers,
Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) (including left SRs*) and Mencheviks.
*Lenin also agued that the SR/Left SR division was not reflected in the election results because they had been organised before the November Revolution (I do mean November because I use the Gregorian calendar).
Shows On @ 461, What a very strange question to pose of me. Look, boyo, I’m a social worker, and a bloody old one at that. I’m a bit behind Margaret Whitlam’s vintage. I’m a damn sight more concerned that those who are disadvantaged in this society, don’t get left out in the construction of a new society. Mind you, I’m not holding my breath.
Ooops thanks Ben – that makes a lot more sense.
My own fault for not delving deeper into the Wikipedia article I was reading.
Which you would think would teach me to NOT read such articles but I digress.
I think all of us have made the wikipedia mistake from time to time.
[I’m a damn sight more concerned that those who are disadvantaged in this society, don’t get left out in the construction of a new society. Mind you, I’m not holding my breath.]
Sorry, I was being silly. I just don’t think the change of government there matters much to Oz.
The change of the U.S. government… that’s different.
william
i beg leave of the blog to proffer a pearler {coutesy of one o wilde]
“your majesty is like bats piss”
hushed silence
‘say what mr wilde’
mutter mutter
“when all else is darkness,you shine out like a shaft of gloden light”
court descends into hysterics
pps i first posted this on peter martins blog pre the oz fed election,for those that remember he was the first to question the fibs economic superiority.
gloden=golden
bloody chardonnay!
[gloden=golden
bloody chardonnay!]
I thought gloden was a poetic word that was enjoyable to pronounce!
goodo, Shows On. I’m clearly a grumpmy old b*&^%$#d. And please pass the kardonnay, preferrably unwooded.
The NZ CEO site has all the results. For each electorate there is a figure for “Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places” – what is the significance of this?
I note that the MP won only 5 of the 7 reserved seats and that the NP did not run in any of them which seems strange in view of the fact that their party vote in some of them what not totally disastrous.
Albert Ross, Antony Green explains:
[Elections NZ do not report booth results where less than 6 votes are taken. This is mainly an issue in the Maori electorates, especially Te Tai Tonga which covers the whole of South Island, where there will be many booths attracting few Maori voters. The Maori population of New Zealand was heavily concentrated on the North Island, which is why many of the early British settlements were on the South Island.]
In other words, if you’re one of only a couple of people voting in a Maori electorate at a small booth, the secrecy of your vote would be endangered if booth results were reported. That said, I’m not sure why they need to point this out on election night, when as far as I can see they weren’t reporting booth-level results at all.
That’s interesting, William. What do you make of that, if anything?
Thanks WB. Does anyone know:-
* if the booth staff have to sit around all day waiting for voters (who may or may not turn up given non-compulsory voting) or do they organise things and get it over with like Dixville Notch?
* if Maori electors get multiple votes ie. in both an open and reserved electorate?
* if anyone knows what the % turnout was. The defeated Lab candidate for Auckland Central was bitching about the large number of people who stayed home.
* what the odious Don Brash was banging on about when he said Keys will be reforming MMP? Are NZz unhappy with MMP?
I’m a bit late to the party, but big congratulations to Mr Key for winning government in NZ. Conservatism is not dead yet, and neither is capitalism. 😉
Albert, Maori voters have the right to go on either the Maori or the General roll, not both, so they only get one vote. Each booth exists in a General electorate and a Maori electorate, but the number of votes taken from the Maori roll may be very small which is where you get the booths with less than 6 votes. It is usually less than 6 votes on the Maori roll, but the booth may take hundreds on the general roll.
Well, GP, I think we’ll swap you NZ for the US anyday.
Albert, I was going to provide a link saying the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party has also resigned, on the ’08 election highlights’ there is a story about the case against MMP. I also understand that National has proposed to abolish the seven Maori seats but whether this will change in government, nobody seems to know.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501799&objectid=10541911
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501799&objectid=10541905
Once you have PR or MMP I don’t see what rationale there can be for separate Maori seats. Plenty of Maori are getting elected on the party lists.
GP:
“Conservatism is not dead yet, and neither is capitalism”
Capitalism never looked like dying as far as I can see…
Albert Ross
Everyone in their right minds is disenchanhted with MMP, even New Zealanders!
Adam in the big C.
Maori seats were invented to give the Maori a voice when they were not getting one. It was a good idea that may have had it’s day as the NZ society becomes more integrated.
No 497
Affirmative Action is crap. Barack Obama proves that you need not have positive discrimination to become the most powerful man on earth. You do so by being the better candidate.
[Barack Obama proves that you need not have positive discrimination to become the most powerful man on earth.]
Yes, and now Obama is President there is no disparity amongst different ethnic groups in America, or anywhere else around the world, and the glass ceiling has been shattered.
What a hero.
Cheers Harry,
From one social worker to another.
Keep up the good word, we all know it is a lifelong one, and there will always be disadvantage, but it is the little victories along the way that keep us going.
Here’s to the underdog