US election live

10.48pm. Oregon Senate race still close: Republican incumbent Gordon Smith leads Democrat Jeff Merkley 47.7 per cent to 46.7 per cent with 74 per cent of precincts reporting. Coleman now leads Franken by 676 votes (0.02 per cent) with 99.9 per cent reporting.

9.25pm. An extra 0.3 per cent of precincts in Minnesota have widened Coleman’s lead to 2591.

8.45pm. Norm Coleman back ahead of Franken in Minnesota – by 490 votes, with 98.7 per cent reporting.

7.54pm. Al Franken seizes a late lead for the Minnesota Senate (188,073 to 185,786) with 98 per cent reporting.

7.45pm. All precincts reporting from Missouri, and McCain leads 1,442,577 to 1,436,724. Possum writes in comments that there are not enough contested votes to cover the gap.

6.29pm. MSNBC calls Indiana for Obama. Only Missouri and North Carolina still outstanding.

6.26pm. Missouri has gone right back down to the wire with 0.7 per cent still to report: McCain 1,426,779, Obama 1,426,381.

6.06pm. With all precincts reporting, Obama leads in North Carolina by 12,160 votes out of over 4.2 million (0.2 per cent cent).

5.57pm. Earlier chat suggested Republican Senator Ted Stevens was dead meat in Alaska, but he leads 49.4-45.4 with 37 per cent reporting. Partial counts can be misleading though.

5.50pm. Back to lineball in Minnesota Senate. Analyst on Fox News says outstanding precincts are likely to favour Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken.

5.16pm. McCain hanging on to his slender lead in Missouri, which is looming as my only wrong call.

5.11pm. McCain now ahead in Montana.

5.00pm. Al Franken continuing to fade in Minnesota Senate – probably gone now.

4.46pm. Obama’s lead in Montana rapidly evaporating as the count proceeds to 51 per cent.

4.36pm. Ohio still quite tight: Obama leads 50.0-48.4 with 72 per cent reporting.

4.31pm. Oregon Senate race has tightened up considerably: within 1 per cent now.

4.11pm. My reading of the Senate: Democrats to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska (no actual votes yet from the latter) – or eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota, where he trails by 0.8 per cent with 53 per cent counted.

4.09pm. Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 0.8 per cent for Minnesota Senate.

4.07pm. Obama now with a relatively handy 0.6 per cent lead in North Carolina.

3.55pm. Obama back in front in North Carolina, but not going to win Missouri. I’ve only just noticed he’s looking a surprise winner in Montana, although with only 24 per cent counted.

3.32pm. Correct me if I’m wrong here somebody, but the Democrats stand to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska – eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota.

3.17pm. McCain concedes defeat.

3.14pm. Close as close can be between Norm Coleman and Al Franken for Minnesota Senate.

3.10pm. Fox reports Roger Wicker holds Mississippi Senate seat for the Republicans, ending the chances of a Democrat supermajority.

2.59pm. CNN calls the election for Obama.

2.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Indiana.

2.54pm. McCain strengthening in North Carolina and Missouri.

2.51pm. Fox reports Virginia went 60-39 to McCain among white voters, but 92-8 among black voters.

2.42pm. McCain’s lead has vanished in Missouri: now 49.4-49.3.

2.41pm. Franken in fact leads Republican incumbent Norm Coleman 43-40.

2.40pm. Fox calls Virginia for Obama. Al Franken reportedly looking good for Minnesota Senate.

2.37pm. Obama leads in New Mexico 50.1-48.7 with less than half of dominant Bernalillo County reporting, where Obama is leading 57.3-41.5.

2.33pm. Crikey blog commenter Stuart: “Wilson and Franklin in North Carolina unreported. Wilson =44000 people total, 47% black. Franklin 2000 in total people 95% white. Looking good for O.”

2.32pm. McCain now narrowly ahead in North Carolina.

2.20pm. McCain leads by 12,839 in Indiana, but extrapolating unreported precincts from Lake County suggests Obama stands to gain over 22,000 votes.

2.18pm. Still tight in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but Obama has a handy lead in each case with most precincts reporting. North Carolina his weakest of the three.

2.16pm. Missouri bouncing around the place, but McCain’s lead currently at 2.6 per cent.

2.12pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri reflating.

2.04pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri is narrowing.

2.01pm. Obama narrowly ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia (in ascending order of narrowness).

1.59pm. Fox calls Iowa for Obama.

1.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Virginia.

1.50pm. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight calls the election for Obama.

1.47pm. CNN calls New Mexico for Obama.

1.33pm. Gap continues to close in Virginia, Obama now only 0.5 per cent behind.

1.25pm. McCain fairly well ahead in Missouri, but nobody’s calling it yet.

1.21pm. Discussion of Indiana on Fox: “central city plus rich suburbs” emerging as the “Obama alliance”, but rural areas holding relatively well for McCain.

1.17pm. Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

1.09pm. Nate Silver: “MSNBC and Fox call Georgia for McCain.”

1.00pm. Fox calls North Dakota for McCain.

12.46pm. Nate Silver on Virginia: “Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia. In the Western half, he’s not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties. I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close.”

12.28pm. Heavily populated Florida counties Orange and Polk are swinging double digits to Obama, blowing away those weaker rural results I was mentioning earlier.

12.12pm. Possum says: “PA has gone Dem, VA has gone Dem – election over”. Adam Carr says: “It’s true that the FL panhandle hasn’t reported yet, but Obama is leading in Orlando and St Petersburg, which are GOP towns. You’d think he’ll win FL from here. Note also Obama’s 75% in Broward – the Jews stuck with Obama despite Lieberman’s defection.”

12.08pm. Discussing Virginia on CNN, confirming the impression that early reporting precincts are rural and we haven’t seen any black areas in the big cities come in. I’m only seeing slight swings to the Democrats in the rural areas.

11.53am. Swings I’m seeing in Florida are also below par: 4.0 per cent in Lake, 2.4 per cent in Manatee, 4.1 per cent in Pinellas. He needs 5.0 per cent.

11.45am. Another substantially reporting Virginia county, Augusta, swinging inadequately to Obama by 5.7 per cent. However, the cities and DC outskirts might tell a different story.

11.37am. Culpeper and Amherst counties in Viriginia swinging 5.1 and 1.8 per cent, against required swing of 8.3 per cent.

11.33am. Manatee County in Florida swinging 2.4 per cent to Democrat – statewide margin is 5.0 per cent.

11.26am. Double digit swings in more counties in Indiana (Clinton, Fayette), but Obama needs 20 per cent across the state.

11.21am. Chesterfield County in Virginia swings 8.9 per cent to Democrat with 94 per cent reporting – the statewide margin in 2004 was 8.2 per cent.

11.09am. Reasonably consistent swings in rural counties in Indiana of around 10 per cent – good, but well short of what Obama would need to win the state if consistent.

10.58am. Swing in Steuben County, Indiana with 68 per cent of precincts reporting is 8.9 per cent: well short of the 20 per cent needed to win the state.

10.52am. 69 per cent of precincts reporting in Vigo County, Indiana – Obama leads by 16 per cent. Bush carried it by 6.4 per cent in 2004 (I’ll be double-posting here on special occasions).

10am. Further efforts will be concentrated above.

4am AEDT. Rain and gusty winds in North Carolina, with rain extending into Virginia. Storms through the north-west, bringing snow to Nevada and Colorado. Weather otherwise very good: fine and warm in Florida and throughout the south, fine and mild through the north-east to the mid-west. You’ll next hear from me at around 9.30am AEDT.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Washington 56.4 39.6 3322 11
Maine 56.5 40.5 2185 4
Minnesota 56.0 41.9 3270 10
Michigan 56.3 42.3 3232 17
New Mexico 57.0 43.2 3305 5
New Hampshire 54.9 41.9 3900 4
Iowa 54.1 41.6 3052 7
Wisconsin 53.3 42.3 3003 10
Colorado 54.8 44.7 3248 9
Pennsylvania 53.0 43.3 5479 21
Nevada 51.6 45.4 3168 5
Virginia 51.9 45.8 3382 13
Ohio 50.5 46.3 6490 20
Florida 49.9 46.8 5381 27
North Dakota 47.6 45.9 1706 3
Montana 48.6 47.6 3934 3
Missouri 49.8 48.8 3217 11
North Carolina 50.0 49.3 5582 15
Indiana 48.5 48.9 3834 11
Georgia 47.8 50.1 3248 15
West Virginia 43.9 54.3 3328 5
Others 175 137
RCP/Total 51.9 44.4 370 168

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,508 comments on “US election live”

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  1. Can someone please give me an actual outcome for Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina?

    Different news services are calling them or not calling them.

    CNN for example has BO winning NC with 100% counted, but that haven’t called it???

  2. Assuming no proviobn votes issued and if so not counted

    IN Obama lead 23,000 , 0.86%
    NC Obama lead 12,000 , 0.30%
    I can not see a recount nor a legal challenge upsetting either for Obama

    MO McCain leads by about 6,000 , 0.20% thats a little more interesting seeing it was regarded by many including me to be a statiscal tie on polling trends and maybe some naughty business occurred there Hope not , better an untainted electon especialy after chads in 2090

  3. [I can not see a recount nor a legal challenge upsetting either for Obama ]
    Why would the Republicans bother? Even with those states they lost badly.

  4. I’m serious, ShowsOn. Geraldo was on and they were saying how perhaps Ayers might have reduced Obama’s popular vote from what was predicted.

  5. Geraldo wasn’t, they were giving him crap, and he said that Obama will win by over 7 million votes and they’re still talking about Bill Ayers.

  6. [Geraldo was on and they were saying how perhaps Ayers might have reduced Obama’s popular vote from what was predicted.]
    So does that mean Obama only gets a voucher to be President for 2 years instead of 4?

  7. I reckon from my non intenet research I know more about Bill Ayers than Fox do and Bill Ayers would not hav cost votes My query was simply his judgemetn asssociating with th guy (a small factor if any in an Independent voters decsion making)

    What th foolish Republicons did (and I presume Fox hav , seeing I don’t watch biased stuff like that) was to insinuate Obama somehow condoned Ayers A rediculous assertion that Independent voters would hav also regarded as ridiculous

    Of course many of those rusted on may believe it but they were going to vote for mcCain anyway , but then many of those probavbley believed he was a muslim as well , was in corrupt cohoots with rezko and had no birth certificate

    And how many above 364 e/v’s was it going to take to constatute a blowout in fox’s opinion

  8. I just (re-)watched the entirety of the two speeches (just caught fragments before).

    McCain’s speech was a corker that his audience was unworthy of. In fact, I’d be surprised if I ever hear a more moving concession speech (maybe if Obama loses in 2012 he might touch it!). Made even more pathetic (in the good sense of the word) by the fact that it was effectively his swansong.

    The content of Obama’s was okay– extremely well-delivered and fleetingly moving– (and tellingly the crowd cheered when McCain’s name was mentioned, a civility not observed at the Repub rally), but the tone of the whole address was part-way between a lecture and a funeral oration. You’ve just won a freakin’ election, you’re addressing about a million people, and the only lighthearted moment is that you’re buying your kids a puppy? Sure, the economy’s rooted, much work to do, world’s in a mess etc, but in this moment, out of all moments in your life, shouldn’t you allow yourself to look a little bit celebratory at some point in the 17 minutes you’re yapping to the crowd? For gawsake, lighten up a bit, man.

    The fact that the tone grated a bit with me, probably reflects the ‘hand on my heart’ nature of American politics. By contrast, Aussies not only tolerate, but approve of, some level of larrikinism in our leaders.

  9. Hi all… it’s been a long time. I hope all are well. 🙂

    Congrats to Obama.

    IMHO he’s going to have a hard time bringing forth everyones dreams of change.

  10. [Sure, the economy’s rooted, much work to do, world’s in a mess etc, but in this moment, out of all moments in your life, shouldn’t you allow yourself to look a little bit celebratory at some point in the 17 minutes you’re yapping to the crowd? For gawsake, lighten up a bit, man.]

    That’s just who he is, and has always been. Very calm and steady no matter the situation.

  11. Hi Ron, up from a nap… absolutely was jesting, but take the crown and wear it with pride (except when David needs it). I’d be strutting around! Indiana did my 353 in, {insert appropriate whinge/whine here}

  12. Expat Follower

    A nap ? from celebratory champers perhaps

    Well th voters of US saved me on one score , I’d heard a few exubant US commentators talking about a host of ‘red’ States that were allegedly in play ….and a few were just over th top ….so whereas posters here just nominated a score i went th whole hog and explicitedly ALSO listed these pundits 5 States allegedly in play and said they were all unwinnable without qualification so i kept an eye on those also today Montana , Arizona , Georgia , West Virginia and South Dakota & I was right , but th pundits still get paid a fortune to make ‘expert’ opinions ….maybe ex Fox employees reconverted

  13. Ronster – I’m here in Sth Africa and about 9hrs behind y’all in Oz. Pulled an all-nighter to follow this, hence the need for a late mng / mid afternoon nap my time! I’d put Georgia in the more likely than Indiana/Missouri column, but that was just kool aid. Am surprised he got Indiana and not Missouri, though… not that it diminishes your glory whatsoever but I’m sure you went for MO and not IN. That’s why my 353 missed out (whinge, whine, etc).. but will take the extra EV’s over the glory… though hesitated before typing that just now!!!

    Mac’s speech was very gracious. His ref to Obi’s gran were really touching. I wish he’d been more centrist and less like the Dole-rerun (ie centrist forced to the right to try and win) in the campaign – he can revert to normal-persona now, I wonder how much he will feel like he sold out to be viable? His speech hinted in this direction (though its a stretch call, that) – he did well… has to keep going in the Senate, or else his seat will be appointed by a Dem govenor.

  14. Actualky not south Dakota , it was North Dakota they reckoned was in play and it was North Dakota i explicitly said was unwinnable (aqlthough so was soth Dakota anyway) plus as well Georgia , West Virginia , Arizona and Montana

  15. Expat Follower

    “I wonder how much he will feel like he sold out to be viable? ”

    Pretty bad I’d tink Th campaign was less than his standards particularly th ‘right consevative’ messages to faithful Sometimes hierachy ar not ‘experts’

    About th predictions you mentioned , apart from th winnable States I posted , Actualy I predicted on betting chanse %’s with polling trends deomgraphics and stuff ,
    FL 70/30% chanse based on trends but said thought it should be narrower (had demographics etc in mind)…and th other 3 bets chanses were so marginal on polling trends etc per my %’s
    ….NC 54/46% chanse , IN 52/48% chanse , almost a tie bet , MO a 50/50% chanse and said extra likeleys would weight it slightly to 50.5/49.5%

    Not that this will cheer you up after th event Expat , but IL is obama’s home state , media friendly , obama had buckets of add money and tha pro Obama nedia does beams into west of IN

  16. Congrats to Obama.

    There was jubilation on the streets here in Chicago and at Grant Park last night. Massive queues to get into the unticketed areas – even longer queues to get into the ticketed areas.

    Every blue state called was greeted with a huge cheer – every red state with a resounding blue. Very big cheer for Illinois, Ohio and Virginia (and obviously, when the election was called). And brilliant speeches from both McCain and Obama at the end…

  17. I’ve now listened to Obama’s speech Feel it was planned to be sober and measured for reassurance to th non exeburant supporters who voted for him , for th markets & financial community and for other Countries that US was in calm hands , and that was th apropriate politcal message to send now (rather than either huboris or inspirations)

  18. Swing Lowe

    You cann’t beat good luck Here you ar 12,000 KM away blogging on PB containing probabley over Obama suporters and all you’ve got is amigo Ron , your mate

    Anyway watch your safety and drink long SL , preferably where th drinks ar free….providing you can convince those US yankees you ar th official Ambassador to th US of “PB” (they may tink ‘PB’ is a State of Australia)

  19. Hmmm – the achiements of the US since WW2? Hadn’t thought of it in an organised way before. Here’s some starters:

    Fors (trying to stick to big ones):
    1. Ensured that both Germany and Japan became functioning democracies.
    2. Ensured that European recovery from WW2 was rapid.
    3. Was instrumental in setting up the UN. Mostly, but not always, a positive.
    4. Set democracy as the ideal form of governance. Instrumental in encouraging, forcing, and supporting the growth of democracies world-wide.
    5. Post-war, helped destroy the British, French and Dutch empires, liberating hundreds of millions of people, most, but not all of whom, for the first time in their histories came to live in democracies. Most still do.
    6. Through its technical brilliance, and its dynamic energy, contributed immensely to the material well-being, longevity and health of billions of people around the world.
    7. Stopped the military march of the Soviet Union and, ultimately, helped significantly to put such pressure on the Soviet system that it collapsed, liberating hundreds of millions of people – without a war being necessary so to do.
    8. Contributed enormously to world cultural options through developments in all the arts.

    Againsts (again sticking to the big ones)
    1. Killed a million vietnamese for no good reason and to no good effect.
    2. Killed and wounded towards the same number of Iraqis, and forced a further 4 million out of their homes, again for no good reason, and with the effect uncertain, at best.
    3. By adopting counterproductive policies and practices, ensured that conflicts involving muslims will continue to be with us for decades more.
    4. Primary driver in cooking the planet.
    5. Primary obstacle to doing anything positive about it.
    6. Supported various dicatorships, contrary to its own democratic principles.
    7. Seriously skewed the proportion of its own, and world investment, in the military.
    8. Failed to evolve, or support, economic/financial/governance models that result in social, economic and environmental sustainability. In fact, the reverse, with some global catastrophic effects.

    On balance? Depends on what you think climate change is going to do. If, more or less catastrophic, then the US contribution postwar is overwhelmingly negative. Apart from that, if you weren’t bastardised in one of the tinpot dictatorships they supported, if you are not vietnamese or Iraqi, then, for other areas, the US must be regarded as having made a huge contribution for the better.

  20. 1395,

    At least there will be some moderate Republicans left in the Party.

    Glen, the adjective used to describe a Republican doesn’t matter. The problem is the branding and you can’t run away from the word Republican. After GB’s last 8 years, that brand name is poison right now.

  21. No 1433

    Julie, the fact that McCain could still secure over 55 million votes in that climate shows that the Republican brand is still strong. The time in the wilderness will be a good time to regroup for them, however. They need to prune the big government dead wood, reunite with their traditional principles of individual freedom, free markets and small government.

  22. Dario,

    Posted Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 12:05 am | Permalink
    Yeah Fox BS’ers saying it wasn’t a blowout… folks, you got toasted royally so STFU

    It’s so sad …. I don’t watch Fox but my family version of this story …

    my sister emailed me unsolicited overnight. I wasn’t going to say anything to her and hadn’t before I turned in last night. She seems to think she is going to spend the next 8 years in the unemployment line because the wrong man according to her is in the WH. I told her she survived 1992 to 2000 and she is still around. She won’t melt and that the President governs for all of the country not just the Democrats. The Republicans can’t conceive of life on a day to day basis without a neo-con in charge. They are all walking around like zombies this morning I swear it …..

  23. SimonH @ 1416,

    Sure, the economy’s rooted, much work to do, world’s in a mess etc, but in this moment, out of all moments in your life, shouldn’t you allow yourself to look a little bit celebratory at some point in the 17 minutes you’re yapping to the crowd? For gawsake, lighten up a bit, man.

    I think that most of us thought it was wonderful. However, if you didn’t pick up the right tone that you were personally looking for, perhaps you ought to remember his grandma passed about 48 hours beforehand. He hasn’t had time to adjust to that let alone the pleasant emotions of what happened on Tuesday US time. While I won’t hear it live, I am sure that the Inauguration Speech will be better, for you, as he will have had time to digest all emotions, happy and sad, by then.

  24. 1422,

    Expat, I was done in by Missouri and Omaha, Nebraska ….. I feel pretty good though for getting close. I took the RCP map of no tossup states and added IN MO, IN and NC. Got two of those 3 guesses right 😉

  25. 1434

    I agree GP it may take a few years but they’ll be back.

    Dont forget that in 1992 Bush Snr Lost and the Dems were in the same situation they find themselves today but it took just 2 years to reverse this.

    The Republican brand has been burnt, but once W leaves the White House the media will no longer have a punching bag and this is when the Republicans could shine if they get back to basics, get new young people in the Party and reconnect with America.

    This was a big win but not a jaw dropping wipeout as some predicted.
    So long as Obama includes some moderates or Republicans in his Administration as i assume he will then the Republicans will have to work with him.

  26. Good morning bludgers, and congratulations Obamanauts. You were right and I was wrong. As Al Gore said through gritted teeth: “for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.”

    I now sincerely hope Obama succeeds, because both the US and the world need a strong and successful US presidency. The world badly the US to resume its rightful place as the leader of the free world. While I retain my doubts about Obama, he will start with immense goodwill and lots of talented and experienced people at his disposal. He will certainly be vastly better than Bush, and probably better than McCain. Better than Clinton? We’ll never know. But with such high levels of expectation there is bound to be some let-down.

    Nor is the Democrat victory all that massive. While Obama slightly exceeded expectations at the EC level, in the popular vote McCain was far from disgraced with 46%. Roosevelt in 1932, a very comparable election, got 57% (although I expect that if Obama had been running against Bush he would have got 60%). The Democrats fell well short of expectations in the House (only 19 gains at present) and the Senate (only five gains at present, with two dead heats). Given the depths of Republican unpopularity, these were not huge gains, although of course they come on top of big Dem gains in 2006.

  27. Well done to Obama and lets hope for a new direction. It is badly needed. With a clear victory margin he at least has a mandate to take action.

    As for the republicans, I am in two minds. OTOH it would be a mistake to write them off. FPP elections tend to magnify the size of winning margins and we should remember that the popular vote difference was still only 52/48 – hardly a massacre. If they return to the values they were founded on they will do much better in 2012.

    OTOH they have to accept that they need to recover those values. Their record in office under Bush really has been shamefull. If they can’t see that then they will keep losing. In that regard I was staggered to see this piece in the Wall Street Journal, which despite its lofty reputation is in danger of turning into the print equivalent of Fox News:

    It says the treatment of Bush has been a disgrace. What? It is Bush who was lucky. despite a questionable rise to power, he was given on trust 90% support after 9/11. But since then he has so abused that trust that now 80% of people see him as a failure. The abuse of trust is the disgrace. We will probably never know how many crimes were committed by his administration while in office, but many will be watching the issuing of presidential pardons in his closing days with close interest. More Scooter Libby type pardon deals will seal his fate as one of the most unethical presidents in history.

  28. While Obama didn’t get a Reagan-esque landslide, he did end up with a popular vote win similar to Bush I in 1988 – at present, Obama is up 53-46 in the popular vote and you’d expect that margin to expand as votes continue to come in from California, Oregon and Washington.

    Of course, he won’t match Bush I’s win in the EC (426-111), but 364-174 (assuming he maintains his lead in NC but doesn’t win in MO) is very close to Bill Clinton’s wins in 1992 (370-168) and 1996 (397-159).

  29. [He will certainly be vastly better than Bush, and probably better than McCain. Better than Clinton? We’ll never know.]
    I’m interested to know why you are able to venture an opinion on Obama being possibly better than McCain yet you say “We’ll never know” when it comes to H Clinton. Being fair minded I would have thought the “We’ll never know” would apply to McCain as well.

  30. Correct me if I’m wrong here (I’m looking at you Adam), but as well as being the first time the Dems broke 50% in the popular vote, this year looks like the largest Democratic win in the electoral college where an incumbent isn’t standing since Franklin Pierce in 1852.

  31. It’s my understanding (and I certainly could be wrong on this) that Carter was the last president to receive over 50% of the popular vote. Am I correct?

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