10.48pm. Oregon Senate race still close: Republican incumbent Gordon Smith leads Democrat Jeff Merkley 47.7 per cent to 46.7 per cent with 74 per cent of precincts reporting. Coleman now leads Franken by 676 votes (0.02 per cent) with 99.9 per cent reporting.
9.25pm. An extra 0.3 per cent of precincts in Minnesota have widened Coleman’s lead to 2591.
8.45pm. Norm Coleman back ahead of Franken in Minnesota – by 490 votes, with 98.7 per cent reporting.
7.54pm. Al Franken seizes a late lead for the Minnesota Senate (188,073 to 185,786) with 98 per cent reporting.
7.45pm. All precincts reporting from Missouri, and McCain leads 1,442,577 to 1,436,724. Possum writes in comments that there are not enough contested votes to cover the gap.
6.29pm. MSNBC calls Indiana for Obama. Only Missouri and North Carolina still outstanding.
6.26pm. Missouri has gone right back down to the wire with 0.7 per cent still to report: McCain 1,426,779, Obama 1,426,381.
6.06pm. With all precincts reporting, Obama leads in North Carolina by 12,160 votes out of over 4.2 million (0.2 per cent cent).
5.57pm. Earlier chat suggested Republican Senator Ted Stevens was dead meat in Alaska, but he leads 49.4-45.4 with 37 per cent reporting. Partial counts can be misleading though.
5.50pm. Back to lineball in Minnesota Senate. Analyst on Fox News says outstanding precincts are likely to favour Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken.
5.16pm. McCain hanging on to his slender lead in Missouri, which is looming as my only wrong call.
5.11pm. McCain now ahead in Montana.
5.00pm. Al Franken continuing to fade in Minnesota Senate – probably gone now.
4.46pm. Obama’s lead in Montana rapidly evaporating as the count proceeds to 51 per cent.
4.36pm. Ohio still quite tight: Obama leads 50.0-48.4 with 72 per cent reporting.
4.31pm. Oregon Senate race has tightened up considerably: within 1 per cent now.
4.11pm. My reading of the Senate: Democrats to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska (no actual votes yet from the latter) – or eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota, where he trails by 0.8 per cent with 53 per cent counted.
4.09pm. Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 0.8 per cent for Minnesota Senate.
4.07pm. Obama now with a relatively handy 0.6 per cent lead in North Carolina.
3.55pm. Obama back in front in North Carolina, but not going to win Missouri. I’ve only just noticed he’s looking a surprise winner in Montana, although with only 24 per cent counted.
3.32pm. Correct me if I’m wrong here somebody, but the Democrats stand to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska – eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota.
3.17pm. McCain concedes defeat.
3.14pm. Close as close can be between Norm Coleman and Al Franken for Minnesota Senate.
3.10pm. Fox reports Roger Wicker holds Mississippi Senate seat for the Republicans, ending the chances of a Democrat supermajority.
2.59pm. CNN calls the election for Obama.
2.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Indiana.
2.54pm. McCain strengthening in North Carolina and Missouri.
2.51pm. Fox reports Virginia went 60-39 to McCain among white voters, but 92-8 among black voters.
2.42pm. McCain’s lead has vanished in Missouri: now 49.4-49.3.
2.41pm. Franken in fact leads Republican incumbent Norm Coleman 43-40.
2.40pm. Fox calls Virginia for Obama. Al Franken reportedly looking good for Minnesota Senate.
2.37pm. Obama leads in New Mexico 50.1-48.7 with less than half of dominant Bernalillo County reporting, where Obama is leading 57.3-41.5.
2.33pm. Crikey blog commenter Stuart: “Wilson and Franklin in North Carolina unreported. Wilson =44000 people total, 47% black. Franklin 2000 in total people 95% white. Looking good for O.”
2.32pm. McCain now narrowly ahead in North Carolina.
2.20pm. McCain leads by 12,839 in Indiana, but extrapolating unreported precincts from Lake County suggests Obama stands to gain over 22,000 votes.
2.18pm. Still tight in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but Obama has a handy lead in each case with most precincts reporting. North Carolina his weakest of the three.
2.16pm. Missouri bouncing around the place, but McCain’s lead currently at 2.6 per cent.
2.12pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri reflating.
2.04pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri is narrowing.
2.01pm. Obama narrowly ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia (in ascending order of narrowness).
1.59pm. Fox calls Iowa for Obama.
1.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Virginia.
1.50pm. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight calls the election for Obama.
1.47pm. CNN calls New Mexico for Obama.
1.33pm. Gap continues to close in Virginia, Obama now only 0.5 per cent behind.
1.25pm. McCain fairly well ahead in Missouri, but nobody’s calling it yet.
1.21pm. Discussion of Indiana on Fox: “central city plus rich suburbs” emerging as the “Obama alliance”, but rural areas holding relatively well for McCain.
1.17pm. Fox calls Ohio for Obama.
1.09pm. Nate Silver: “MSNBC and Fox call Georgia for McCain.”
1.00pm. Fox calls North Dakota for McCain.
12.46pm. Nate Silver on Virginia: “Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia. In the Western half, he’s not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties. I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close.”
12.28pm. Heavily populated Florida counties Orange and Polk are swinging double digits to Obama, blowing away those weaker rural results I was mentioning earlier.
12.12pm. Possum says: “PA has gone Dem, VA has gone Dem – election over”. Adam Carr says: “It’s true that the FL panhandle hasn’t reported yet, but Obama is leading in Orlando and St Petersburg, which are GOP towns. You’d think he’ll win FL from here. Note also Obama’s 75% in Broward – the Jews stuck with Obama despite Lieberman’s defection.”
12.08pm. Discussing Virginia on CNN, confirming the impression that early reporting precincts are rural and we haven’t seen any black areas in the big cities come in. I’m only seeing slight swings to the Democrats in the rural areas.
11.53am. Swings I’m seeing in Florida are also below par: 4.0 per cent in Lake, 2.4 per cent in Manatee, 4.1 per cent in Pinellas. He needs 5.0 per cent.
11.45am. Another substantially reporting Virginia county, Augusta, swinging inadequately to Obama by 5.7 per cent. However, the cities and DC outskirts might tell a different story.
11.37am. Culpeper and Amherst counties in Viriginia swinging 5.1 and 1.8 per cent, against required swing of 8.3 per cent.
11.33am. Manatee County in Florida swinging 2.4 per cent to Democrat – statewide margin is 5.0 per cent.
11.26am. Double digit swings in more counties in Indiana (Clinton, Fayette), but Obama needs 20 per cent across the state.
11.21am. Chesterfield County in Virginia swings 8.9 per cent to Democrat with 94 per cent reporting – the statewide margin in 2004 was 8.2 per cent.
11.09am. Reasonably consistent swings in rural counties in Indiana of around 10 per cent – good, but well short of what Obama would need to win the state if consistent.
10.58am. Swing in Steuben County, Indiana with 68 per cent of precincts reporting is 8.9 per cent: well short of the 20 per cent needed to win the state.
10.52am. 69 per cent of precincts reporting in Vigo County, Indiana – Obama leads by 16 per cent. Bush carried it by 6.4 per cent in 2004 (I’ll be double-posting here on special occasions).
10am. Further efforts will be concentrated above.
4am AEDT. Rain and gusty winds in North Carolina, with rain extending into Virginia. Storms through the north-west, bringing snow to Nevada and Colorado. Weather otherwise very good: fine and warm in Florida and throughout the south, fine and mild through the north-east to the mid-west. You’ll next hear from me at around 9.30am AEDT.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.4 | 39.6 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.5 | 40.5 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.0 | 41.9 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.3 | 42.3 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.0 | 43.2 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 54.9 | 41.9 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.1 | 41.6 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.3 | 42.3 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.8 | 44.7 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.0 | 43.3 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.6 | 45.4 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 51.9 | 45.8 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.5 | 46.3 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 49.9 | 46.8 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.6 | 45.9 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.6 | 47.6 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.8 | 48.8 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.0 | 49.3 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.5 | 48.9 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.8 | 50.1 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 43.9 | 54.3 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 51.9 | 44.4 | – | 370 | 168 |
Oz at number 1348,
it will also be a long time before I forget the spectacle of Liberals jeering and heckling Michelle Grattan as she went about her journalistic duty of putting questions to Howard at his last National Press Club address.
[Was anyone charged and convicted? I think not. They’re meaningless allegations.]
It was a joke, not an allegation… Relax.
hey GP
Im off to bed but before I go,cant you provide one decent “dirty tactic’ that labor has engaged in.
you know like-
accuse a judge falsely
allege the then oppn deputy leader was “barren”
robo-phone calls to electors
distribute raciallly explosive flyers etc
……
I also can’t believe Palin would be a credible candidate in 2012. She has serious damage control to do after this. If she tried Tina Fey would make millions.
Robocalls are hardly dirty tactics. Annoying yes, dirty no.
As far as a Labor dirty tactic. The false Howard/Kennet letter in ’96.
62 million (Obama) v 55 million (McCain)
Still an impressive result for McCain in light of the terrible disapproval ratings of George Bush.
[I also can’t believe Palin would be a credible candidate in 2012. She has serious damage control to do after this. If she tried Tina Fey would make millions.]
If Tina Fey did do 30 Rock, she could do a reality TV show as Palin.
Similarly I think many people would find the whole Liberal Party insulting on account of their endorsing convicted filth such as “Iron Bar” Tuckey …
[… charges Tuckey reportedly faced in 1967 for beating an Aboriginal man with an iron bar, allegedly while the man was being held down. Tuckey was convicted of assault and fined $50]
The Age, 23 August 2003
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/08/22/1061529333629.html
No 1353
Keating and Latham had many examples that I need not waste my time detailing.
Just looking at the electoral map first time I noticed the Michigan is an odd state. Why isn’t the northern part of it part of wisconsin? – It’s make more sense geographically.
Is Intrade going to open a book on how long it will take Obama’s hair to turn completely grey?
No 1353
Brian Burke ring a bell Cuppa? Brought down the WA Labor Government.
Aussie Expectations Of Obama:
http://umrresearch.com.au/doc/postelectionobamanov.pdf
No 1361
I think it will be completely grey by January 20, 2009.
[The leaflet scandal was a disgrace.]
Obscene even?
No 1363
That was already posted.
[Still an impressive result for McCain in light of the terrible disapproval ratings of George Bush.]
Or a bad result given that Obama is an inexperienced one term senator, who has never held executive office, nor served in the military, who is the most left wing of all senators, has links to a domestic terrorist, is black oh and his middle name is “Hussein”.
Gee that Obama he had it all on a plate didn’t he. Just born to rule….
[Why isn’t the northern part of it part of wisconsin?]
Wisconsin wasn’t a state when Michigan joined the union
UMMM GP
how is burke a Labor ‘dirty tactic’ -own goal more likely
try again
Troy Buswell ring a bell, Generic Person? After details of his chair-sniffing, testicle-grabbing and bra-snapping had been made public he survived a leadership spill of the WA Liberal Party.
There’s a bit of a difference between indecency and corruption.
For Palin to become a credible candidate, she’d need a broader appeal and more national experience. Getting out of Alaska and off to Washington as Senator would be perfect.
With Stevens looking like winning, the Repugs have a huge decision ahead when the Senate sits. Do they support the motion to expel Stevens for unethical conduct (and allow Palin in the tent) or do they support their colleague?
Some of the moderates might not want Palin in the Senate. You could get the extreme right voting to chuck out their buddy and the moderates voting to keep a felon in power.
Pass the popcorn!
[Still an impressive result for McCain in light of the terrible disapproval ratings of George Bush.]
An impressive defeat but a defeat we had to have. A landslide? Who cares.
Great discussion. Your sides corruption beats my sides corruption. I would have thought any corruption on either side is wrong. Let’s just hope that when either side sees it within their ranks they rid themselves of it.
No 1369
Oh please Gusface.
Cheers Dario – still looks dopey, though at least it’s better than Colorado and Wyoming…
No 1373
LOL. Yes it’s a defeat. I just expected the margin to be larger given how poorly Bush was doing.
1346,
I read US news from multiple places. Occasionally, you find me at the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Detroit Free Press, the Real Clear Politics site which is a clearing house for articles from various other sites, TheHill.com, DailyKos, TalkingPointsMemo. Sometimes I even find the US news in a first source form from the Aussie news sites. I try to avoid The Australian though :-D. I usually find the best stuff though at the HP. Cheers 🙂
I
Dio @ 1372,
Hit the nail on the head.
What made Palin unelectable is not her right-wing views (most of which are barely right-wing at all in Republican Party). No, it was her complete lack of relevant experience.
She is (street) smart, articulate, and now has good brand recognition. She needs to gain more credibility as a potential national leader but a stint in the Senate (8 years would probably be better than 4) might fill the gap.
I don’t like her and I said so right from the time McCain chose her. But I doubt if we’ve heard the last of her.
[There’s a bit of a difference between indecency and corruption.]
Just as there is a bit of difference between corruption and beating an aboriginal man with an iron bar while he is being held down.
Then, adding insult to injury, by making the convicted assaulter a minister in a federal Liberal government.
Cuppa,
We could detail (not tonight, it’s too late, but some other time) the misdeeds of various prominent Labor politicians.
Or, alternatively, you could stop being holier than thou.
Yes, but without him we wouldn’t know the cure to stopping bushfires.
Grog @ 1360, thanks for asking 🙂 Not often I get the chance to talk about where I used to live ….
[
19th century
During the War of 1812, Michigan Territory (effectively consisting of Detroit and the surrounding area) was captured by the British and nominally returned to Upper Canada. American forces forced the British out in 1813 and pushed into Canada.
The Treaty of Ghent implemented the policy of “Status Quo Ante Bellum” or “Just as Things Were Before the War.” That meant Michigan stayed American, and the agreement to establish a joint U.S.-UK boundary commission also remained valid. Subsequent to the findings of that commission in 1817, control of the Upper Peninsula and of islands in the St. Clair River delta was transferred from Ontario to Michigan in 1818. Mackinac Island (to which the British had moved their Michilimackinac army base) was transferred to the U.S. in 1847.
The population grew slowly until the opening of the Erie Canal in 1825. This brought a large influx of settlers to Michigan because it made transportation by ships through the Great Lakes possible. By the 1830s, Michigan had some 80,000 residents, which were more than enough to apply for statehood.
In 1836 a state government was formed, although Congressional recognition of the state was delayed pending resolution of a boundary dispute with Ohio. Both states claimed a 468-square-mile (1,210 km²) strip of land that included the newly incorporated city of Toledo on Lake Erie and an area to the west then known as the “Great Black Swamp.” The dispute came to be called the Toledo War. Michigan and Ohio militia maneuvered in the area but never exchanged fire. Congress awarded the “Toledo Strip” to Ohio. Michigan received the western part of the Upper Peninsula as a concession and formally entered the Union on January 26, 1837.
Thought to be nearly valueless, the Upper Peninsula was discovered to be a rich and important source of lumber, iron, and copper. These became the state’s most sought-after natural resources and generated early wealth. Geologist Douglass Houghton and land surveyor William Austin Burt were among the first to document many of these resources. Developers rushed to the state. Michigan led the nation in lumber production from 1850s to the 1880s. The lumber harvested in Michigan was shipped to the rapidly developing prairie states, Chicago, to the eastern states, and even all of the way to Europe.
The first official meeting of the Republican Party took place July 6, 1854 in Jackson, Michigan, where the party adopted its platform. Michigan made a significant contribution to the Union in the American Civil War and sent more than forty regiments of volunteers to the Federal armies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan
]
[Cheers Dario – still looks dopey, though at least it’s better than Colorado and Wyoming…]
hahaha very true. I think they nearly fired shots with Ohio over land claims just before they were admitted to the union, so that may have had something to do with it also. Don’t forget that the US went to war with Canada only a few years before that, so the whole region was in flux really.
1383, there you go… a better explanation of it 🙂
dyno
I was really impressed with how positive and energetic she was. She was a great campaigner and really believed in what she was doing. She looked really crushed when she lost. She had so much vitriol and denigrading commentary (from me as much as anyone) directed at her and she just kept going and didn’t let it get to her. I’ve got a lot more respect for her as a person now than at the start but I don’t agree with anything she says.
I think she’ll be back.
[you could stop being holier than thou.]
I could, and I shall. If you read back to the previous page you’ll see I was actually responding to Generic Person’s sanctimonious comment that he found “the whole Labor Party insulting” on account of the alleged activities of some alleged unionists.
Cuppa,
Fair enough. I plead guilty to not reading back to the start of the argument!
Cheers
1383 – cheers – so ’twas money was the reason. – Gotta have that lumber!
[so ’twas money was the reason]
aint it always?
[I’ve got a lot more respect for her as a person now than at the start ]
You’re a better person that I.
[aint it always?]
Yep.
anyhoo, night all, well done BO. SNIP: See Article II of comment moderation guidelines.
Have to admit to being interested in seeing who he picks for his top cabinet posts… bet he’ll do a Matt Santos and appoint a republican (though I doubt very much it’ll be McCain!)
I guess Alaskans are happy with a crook for a Senator, i guess they dont want change lol!
Expat Follower
Notised you posted to me a while ago and assume you were jesting
However perceptions can be misunderstood Barack Obama is th elected US POTUS and I actually congratulate him on being elected firstly and on his achievement from where he was 12 months ago and also for his victory over McCain…emfphatic and & without democracy questionmarks
Now there ar many here you believe I hav sour grapes over Hillary losing because I kept quoting her comparatively to Obama both on ‘left’ policy and electoral Poll comparisons of electability Those that tink that can continue to and thats fair enough My alternative view always was had Hillary been th Nominee she would hav won by more (an opinion) but that reality was she lost th Primary race so that was that and so was reely acadamic BUT I did believe and still do that comparative ‘left’ policy criticisms (even of th beaten candidate’s policys & demographic electabilitys) ar still an objective legitimate poilical tool to point out what th winning candidate is NOT (and without sulking your guy lost) That’s simply comparative policy assessment & I listed 19 ‘left’ deficent policys on 1/11 to support my opinion which others disagreed on , but sour grapes is an easy (and cheap) alternative shot often used by defendars of th winning candidate which one knows one runs th risk of but that’s blogging and people ar quite entitled to there views
Now to my little criticism of McCain who I “generally” praised earlier & genuinely Fact is whilst he is not a “Bush” , McCain was still a Republicon …an idealology I completeley differ on…no need to say more I thought & still tink (although I also said he was a ‘dud’ for what th World needed) Now while I retain reservations about Obama on both my 19 ‘left’ policy areas & his ability to deliver what many perceive he is saying he will deliver on , however I actualy hope he is at least an able POTUS because that will be a vast improvement on th predecessor and if better th Palestinians for one may finaly get justice
and for those interested in historys th inauguration moment may be comparable to th last poignent 10 seconds of th series “Roots”
Smith and Coleman holding…thank god!
At least there will be some moderate Republicans left in the Party.
National vote now at Obama 52-46
Expat Follower , delete ‘you’ & sub ‘who’ from first line 2nd para
Dario 1396
If that national vote holds- Rsmussen takes the bikkies for thier final poll
Others polling at just 1.1%
[If that national vote holds- Rsmussen takes the bikkies for thier final poll]
Yep, I’d like to see a run down of their final state by state polls too to see how accurate they were