Presidential election minus 21 days

A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.2 38.1 3196 17
Pennsylvania 53.2 39.2 3680 21
Iowa 54.4 40.7 692 7
Washington 54.3 41.8 1244 11
Wisconsin 52.0 41.2 4923 10
New Hampshire 53.0 42.5 2760 4
Minnesota 50.2 43.0 3195 10
New Mexico 49.4 42.4 2427 5
Colorado 51.2 44.7 4281 9
Maine 51.5 45.9 500 4
Nevada 49.5 45.5 3599 5
West Virginia 48.6 45.0 1122 5
Florida 49.1 47.0 3530 27
North Carolina 48.0 45.9 3574 15
Missouri 49.0 47.6 4018 11
North Dakota 45.1 44.0 1206 3
Virginia 48.1 47.8 3811 13
Ohio 47.2 49.1 3151 20
Indiana 45.2 48.3 1977 11
Others 175 155
RCP/Total 49.5 43.2 352 186

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Presidential election minus 21 days”

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  1. Zogby is one of the few, if only pollsters who has the same percentage of Dems and Repubs, which is clearly out of whack with reality. However, it does serve a good purpose of motivating the Obama/Biden ground game troops to keep working their tails off.

  2. Adam in Canberra@43

    So there is hope for right wing nutters. I think it would be hard to describe anyone as a left wing nutter in the good old USA, No, perhaps good old George with his nationalization of the banks.

  3. [Though Zogby was 6.2 yesterday and dropped to 3.8. I wonder if the average will]

    2.4, 2.9, 3.6, 4.2, 4.8, 6.1, 4.3, 6.2, 3.8

    Fairly steady really

  4. I have often considered that left and right wing are actually lines that form a circle. If you go out far enough in one direction, you end up on the other side.

  5. Re jjulian1009 @ 50,

    Btw, mailed my absentee ballot yesterday.

    Where do you vote out of? I thought I was the only one voting in the US election for real πŸ˜‰ …. I vote out of Scio Township just west of Ann Arbor, Michigan. Cheers πŸ™‚

  6. Well *practically* the Soviet Union had more in common with fascist states than any democracies but in *theory*, leftism on the economic scale = more government intervention whereas the right-wing is an adovation of less intervention. There’s no way those two could meet up.

    And socially, in theory, the “left” generally applies to an increase in civil liberties and letting people do what they want, and the “right” means authoritariniasm.

    Obviously those are fairly huge generalisations and I’m sure many would dispute but my point is that in theory, the left and right wouldn’t meet up but in practice, extreme leftist states have more in common with extreme right-wing states than either would like to admit.

  7. Julilem @ 58
    Good on ya! I am resident in Sydney and vote out of San Bernardino County, California, so my vote won’t make much difference. Your Ann Arbor vote could be far more important (go Wolverines!).

    Still, it felt seriously splendid to vote for Barack and Joe!

  8. jjulian,

    I voted a straight party ticket for the partisan offerings. Yes, it felt very very good and I actually think that after the pain of Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 that this year will be karmic justice πŸ˜‰ …….

    I’ve been here since December 2004 and am a dual citizen now so I get to vote in both countries elections. Are you an Aussie citizen as well?

  9. jjulian, do you want into our PB EV guessing contest? if you do (no official prizes just the pride of picking the right number), I need your EV guess for Obama and the following two tie breakers – will Obama take Missouri and which state will put him over the top in the EV vote total? Cheers πŸ™‚

  10. juliem @ 61
    You betcha!

    In my heart, I’m now an Aussie, but I visit my rels in California every year. Aren’t we incredibly lucky that they let us live in this glorious country?

  11. jj, yes indeed …. I married an Aussie in 1996 so that explains how I ended up here eventually πŸ˜‰ …… we live here permanently now {not going into my closet to explain my family and why I don’t go back to the US – other than the Republican sister I have in Missouri – if anyone wants to see me, they can come here} and no plans of going back to the US.

    But for this being a glorious country, it sure is. Our family is getting 2 grand courtesy of Rudd’s handouts earlier this week and you know that if I were still back in the US, that we wouldn’t get that kind of generosity over there πŸ˜‰ …..

    I see a lot of parallels between some of Obama’s ideas and things that Rudd has done in the last 12 months :). I know that the left side of politics won’t always carry the day so I want to enjoy it for as many days/weeks/months/years as it continues πŸ™‚

  12. Juliem

    My call is Obama will win 313 EV, but I’dl have to go into a deep karma meditation to call the state which will put him over the top.

    I think McCain will win Mizzou, unless it’s a huge Obamaslide.

    Cheers back at ya!

  13. Sondeo @ 64

    I hope you’re right about Colorado going the big finale. My rightwing Repub-voting brother lives in Denver, so that would be a wee bit more icing on the cake.

  14. julian, to be honest, I know nothing ( literally ) πŸ™‚ about how the US political system works, but from reading the blogs, I get the feeling that when push comes to shove, the repubs will get a big shove, goodbye.

  15. jj, we need to do something about these blacksheep republicans in our respective families πŸ˜‰ …… i tried converting my sister, but she won’t have anything of it. her husband is a life time army nco, now retired to the civilian police force, and she votes like the traditional military voters, always republican as they usually are more friendly towards the military budget. she is on my case the last week or two about A.C.O.R.N but I just delete those emails after reading them and let them go through to the keeper πŸ˜‰ ….

    have you ever wondered how maria and arnie manage it? i could never ever live in the same household [moved out of home before that sister first began voting. my first election was 1980, hers was 1984.] with someone who voted the opposite party from myself, let alone if it was my spouse. i don’t know how they manage it, it is beyond me. perhaps being from California, you can shed some light on that? my husband and i both vote labor as do my inlaws, no libs in this family LOL ……

  16. Grog @ 70,

    Both you & Gusface are the same at present – 348, No on Missouri and Colorado to put Obama over the top. Incidentally, Gary Bruce and I are currently the only ones who have said “yes” that Obama will take Missouri.

    jj, I hear where you are coming from in #68 as that was part of my motivation in saying that I thought Obama would take Missouri. Also, RCP has had it mostly in the Obama camp on the no tossup states map for awhile now.

  17. 2-0. I like it! Go you good things!

    Thanks juliem.

    Well looking at the RC no-toss up is currently 364. .. would like to change, but I’ll stick with my pick, but switch to Florida being the over the top state.

  18. Ah, Juliem, now you have struck upon one of the great existential questions.

    My brother often tries to lure me into political arguments by taking cheap shots at Democratic candidates, but I never bite. No Coalition voters in my Aussie family either, but we’ll be voting Greens until the NSW Liberals-in-sheep’s-clothing government is thrown out.

    By the way, I’m a Vietnam Vet, and most of my ‘Nam buddies are voting for Obama, if for no other reason than to avenge the Swiftboating of Captain John Kerry which gave an AWOL flyboy another disastrous term. Speaking of the highest disapproval-rated President in history, have you heard any buzz on Oliver Stone’s bioflick, “W”, which is coming out this week?

  19. Juliem @ 74

    My scepticism about Mizzou is that I was stationed near K.C. for 6 months, and it was real rednecky (nothwithstanding Pres.Truman having been a K.C. boy). However, an Obamalanche would bury it easy!

    Grog @ 75

    Always a good bet to go with Florida because, if the election is close, who knows how many weeks it will take for the Republican Party Supreme Court justices to award Florida and the election to McCain.

  20. Grog,
    Thanks for the link to the “W” reviews. Have you any thoughts on whether it could impact on the election, ala “Fahrenheit 9/11”?

  21. I doubt it’ll have any – people already hate W πŸ˜‰

    Plus Stone’s films rarely do well at the box office, so I doubt many will see it – and those who do will see it to confrim their feelings on him.

  22. [Good call, Grog. I’m hoping it will be a timely reminder of the need to have an intelligent and thoughtful person as Prez.]
    Hillary would’ve won by more.

  23. ShowsOn @ 83.

    Perhaps so, assuming that a lot of people wanted to see the Big Dog, Bill, back in action. However, I hope you’re not a PUMA because Obama is going to be one of the all-time greats.

  24. gus,

    P (arty) U (nity) M (y) A (**)

    most recently used by disaffected Hillary supporters when Obama got enough votes to go over the top for the nomination back in June ……

    * william, hope that wasn’t too sneaky for the filters as I wasn’t sure if they would catch on that particular word πŸ˜‰

  25. [Perhaps so, assuming that a lot of people wanted to see the Big Dog, Bill, back in action. However, I hope you’re not a PUMA because Obama is going to be one of the all-time greats.]
    Sorry, it is a silly in-joke that this blog has spawned. Whatever poll results Obama achieves (narrow leads in North Carolina and Virginia, line ball in Missouri, with North Dakota in play!?), there’s a faction that says Hillary would’ve been leading by more (as if she gets two presidencies if she wins by a larger amount!?)

    I say this as someone who wanted Hillary Clinton to win the primary, but now it is obvious that Obama is by far a better candidate and campaigner than McCain & Train-wreck.
    [at least 37.5%]
    LOL! Exactly. πŸ˜€

  26. Gusface,
    PUMA stands for Party Unity My A**, whose website is for aggrieved Hillary supporters supporting McCain. However, the arrival of Gov. Palin has probably deflated the PUMAS down to negligible numbers (except in the Deep South, of course).

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