Presidential election minus 21 days

A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.2 38.1 3196 17
Pennsylvania 53.2 39.2 3680 21
Iowa 54.4 40.7 692 7
Washington 54.3 41.8 1244 11
Wisconsin 52.0 41.2 4923 10
New Hampshire 53.0 42.5 2760 4
Minnesota 50.2 43.0 3195 10
New Mexico 49.4 42.4 2427 5
Colorado 51.2 44.7 4281 9
Maine 51.5 45.9 500 4
Nevada 49.5 45.5 3599 5
West Virginia 48.6 45.0 1122 5
Florida 49.1 47.0 3530 27
North Carolina 48.0 45.9 3574 15
Missouri 49.0 47.6 4018 11
North Dakota 45.1 44.0 1206 3
Virginia 48.1 47.8 3811 13
Ohio 47.2 49.1 3151 20
Indiana 45.2 48.3 1977 11
Others – – – 175 155
RCP/Total 49.5 43.2 – 352 186

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Presidential election minus 21 days”

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  3. It definitely is Dario, but I don’t think the final election result will be +6. Just like I didn’t think it would be +8 or +10.

  4. Anyone else sense a general “tightening” now? The next 3 or 4 days of polling will be interesting. Some of those +10 and +14 polls were ridiculously out of kilter, and are keeping the RCP average still a wide one. When those big margins drop off, and we start seeing more 3 and 4 margins, it will change things.

  5. [Anyone else sense a general “tightening” now? The next 3 or 4 days of polling will be interesting. Some of those +10 and +14 polls were ridiculously out of kilter, and are keeping the RCP average still a wide one. When those big margins drop off, and we start seeing more 3 and 4 margins, it will change things.]
    I think so. But I don’t know WHERE the narrowing is occurring. I guess we will find out this week if there is some lag in the state polls.

  6. Check out this national tracking poll: the most accurate pollster from 2004 is now showing a significant Prez-Debate3 bounce for Obama.

    Results of TIPP’s Election 2008 Tracking Poll
    Beginning October 13th, TIPP began publishing the results of its 2008 Presidential race tracking poll.

    The table below shows results for a two-way race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama among likely voters.

    John McCan vs. Barack Obama
    Release Date

    McCain

    Obama

    Undecided

    Spread
    October 18

    39.8%

    47.2%

    13.0%

    +7.3 Obama
    October 17

    40.6%

    45.9%

    13.5%

    +5.3 Obama
    October 16

    41.6%

    45.2%

    13.2%

    +3.6 Obama
    October 15

    41.9%

    45.2%

    12.9%

    +3.3 Obama
    October 14

    41.9%

    44.8%

    13.3%

    +3.0 Obama
    October 13

    42.7%

    44.8%

    12.5%

    +2.1 Obama

    “In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush’s actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of “Nation’s Most Accurate Pollster.” We”re planning to do it again this time around, so why not come along for the ride!”

    Now, that’s my kind of ride!

  10. Of course there will be a “tightening” (or “narrowing” as we call it). I don’t think Obama will carry WV, NC or MO. I think he will carry IA and NM. So then it will come down to CO, FL, NV, OH and VA. He only needs one of these, and you’d have to think he will do that. But they will all be close.

  11. Although the state polls are the ones that matter, I still thought it might cheer Obama supporters up to see the new TIPP national tracking poll, which boasts of its great result in ’04 (whether by dumb luck or not!).

    I fully expect the Robocall assaults, attacks of Anti-Americanism and Socialism etc. to impact on a national level, but mainly in deep red states where the Obama campaign is not spending advertising $ at a 3 to 1 rate over McCain like in Battleground states. Please see my earlier post with link to Prof. Sam Wang’s website at Princeton University.

    There’s going to be a huge backlash at the Anti-American charges by Repub. congress woman, Michele Bachmann, against Obama and other Dem. colleagues on Chris Matthews CNN program. He and pundits on panel were appalled by her attempt to perpetrate such a blatant McCarthyist smear.

  13. From the Associated Press today. The AP has been attempting to “outFox” other national news wire services with rightwing opinions seeping into their supposedly straight news items, so the outcome of their latest favorable-unfav. poll is most illuminating:

    “Negative campaigning and a month of intense public focus on collapsing global economic and financial markets have not been kind to McCain. The new AP-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters, conducted this month by Knowledge Networks, shows more people viewing him favorably than unfavorably by just 5 percentage points, down from a 21-point difference in mid-September.

    During the same period, Obama went the other way, increasing a 5-percentage-point net favorable rating to 15 points. Now, Obama is seen favorably by 57 percent and McCain by 52 percent — a close margin that masks the opposite direction the two rivals’ ratings are heading.”

  14. [This new ad is likely to get voters thinking about the suitablity of Obama for POTUS.]
    All that advert made me think about was how terrible it would be for Sarah Palin to ever get near that room, let alone that chair.

    McCain’s terrible choice of a V.P. candidate killed of his “Obama isn’t experienced” line of argument.

    Oh, and McCain has never worked in executive government either, he has only ever been in the legislature.

  15. Showson your mind is made up and you aren’t voting.

    McCain is not actualy targetting this ad at people like you.

    Contrary to the blogotariats never ending smear against McCain, he is a respected and well liked figure for his military service and years of service to the Senate.

    The fact is that Obama has not “closed the deal” despite having events run his way throughout the Primaries and the campaign to date. there still appear to be doubts about his experience and plans for office.

    If you want to campaign against a Palin Presidency, come back in 2012 or 2016.

  16. * jjulian, I don’t think Bachman’s comments will have any impact, she’s a nobody, and she didn’t say anything that hasn’t been said already a zillion times.
    * GG, nor do I think that ad will shift many votes. Everyone knows Obama is underqualified to be president, but the Repubs are so discredited that no-one cares.

    Unless the RNC is sitting on some monstrous new scandal about Obama (not impossible, not not likely), he will win, though not by much. Debate 3 was really McCain’s last chance to show Obama as unready to rule, and he didn’t.

  17. [If you want to campaign against a Palin Presidency, come back in 2012 or 2016.]

    lol if McCain loses she will cop a lot of the fallout from the conservatives for the result, and will never be heard from again

  18. /Edward Scissorhands style ON
    [Showson your mind is made up and you aren’t voting.]
    Well duh, I’m not a U.S. citizen.
    [McCain is not actualy targetting this ad at people like you.]
    You mean Australians? LOL! 😀
    [Contrary to the blogotariats never ending smear against McCain, he is a respected and well liked figure for his military service and years of service to the Senate.]
    Where did I contradict this? I simply pointed out that the U.S. congress is not part of the executive. In other words, I stated the bleeding obvious.
    [The fact is that Obama has not “closed the deal” despite having events run his way throughout the Primaries and the campaign to date.]
    How did “events run his way” during the primary? Obama won a hard fought campaign against Hillary Clinton – another excellent candidate.
    [If you want to campaign against a Palin Presidency, come back in 2012 or 2016.]
    If you want to keep copying McCain’s talking points, keep posting NOW, because he won’t be running for president in 2012 or 2016.

  20. Adam,

    But, as we get closer to the election, that “je ne sais qua” ambivalence of some undecided voters may wash out when they are confronted with the reality of casting their vote.

    No doubt McCain and his team are hammering this theme because it must still be a vote changing factor according to their research.

  23. JulieM,

    Here’s my two cents worth for the POTUS outcome.

    1 EV 291
    2 Nope
    3 Colorado

    Two ideas behind that guess

    1. McCain will gain some ground over the last two weeks, but not enough. He’s had such an aweful campain over the last two weeks that he can only improve. There is plenty of fear and uncertainty to play off.

    2. I’ve wondered about the theory that Obama has great strength on the ground and this means that (given voting is optional) the poll are 1-2% behind the actual outcome. To me it sound like a theme to keep the troops motivated.

  24. I think its very telling that both Obama and McCain are campaigning in states won by Bush in 2004. Clearly Mccain is on the defensive at the moment and it’s hard to see that changing in the two weeks remaining.

    As for that Bachmann woman – what a disgraceful bit of work she is. Talk about the smiling assassin.. Thank God idiots like her are about to spend a long time in the political wilderness.

  25. Saw a report over the weekend that exit polls conducted on early voters are heavily favouring Obama. If things tighten up a bit between now and polling day those extra votes will no doubt come in handy.

  28. The very slight tightening is occurring in LV but not RV polls. It’s probably a few Repug fans putting their dummies back in their mouths and saying they will vote when 2 weeks ago they were so disgusted with McCain’s lame campaign that they weren’t going to bother voting for him.

    The Repugs senate campaign has pulled out of campaigning in Colorado. I’d be very surprised if CO and VA don’t stay blue which would be game over. The rest are just insurance policies. The lack of any high-profile events and Obama’s 3:1 money advantage should blunt much a narrowing. I’m guessing he’ll win the popular vote by about 4%.

  35. Dario,

    But, such hubris is hardly symtopmatic of a team in touch with their community Keeping the lid on arrogance and indifference towards the people they are purporting to represent would be an important factor in the “don’t screw this up” handbook.

    Could be ripe time for a rerun of the “guns and religion” incident.

  38. Finns

    Hillary gets support from Obama camp for Health Secretary. “Very possible”

    [Members of Obama’s inner circle believe she would be tempted to accept an offer to become health secretary, which would give her the historic opportunity to devise and implement the policy. “That’s very possible. Senator Clinton would be terrific as health secretary,” said Congressman Patrick Murphy, a leading Obama supporter. ]

  39. Dario,

    So eating lobster and Iranian caviar is exactly what the voters facing the loss of their homes and jobs want to see.

    BS! You’re soaking in it if you believe that!

  40. Adam @ 466

    “* jjulian, I don’t think Bachman’s comments will have any impact, she’s a nobody, and she didn’t say anything that hasn’t been said already a zillion times”

    She’s running for re-election after serving one term in the House, and her comments have resulted in a half million $ in donations for her opponent within 24 hours. In 2006, the result was Bachmann 50%, Dem 42%, Indy 8%. It’s not likely to help McCain overcome Obama’s double-digit lead in that state, which his campaign had some valid hopes of gaining about a month ago.

    The Republicans normally stick to milder language to assert that Democrats are not “real” pro-Americans, and it’s interesting to see Palin and other women taking on the role of shock troops this election to divide and conquer.

  42. Dio @ 488,

    That has been my own take on it since she wasn’t named VP. I think that will be a go and will be a super job for her 🙂

  43. Just a reminder that we all need to be careful what we say on the internet.

    [A husband who hacked his wife to death with a meat cleaver in fury over her Facebook entry was jailed for a minimum of 14 years at the Old Bailey today.

    Wayne Forrester, 34, drank alcohol and took cocaine before driving 15 miles to the family home to attack wife Emma as she lay in bed.

    The couple had separated four days before the murder in February and Forrester later told police he had been provoked by his wife changing her marital status to “single” on her Facebook entry, the court heard. ]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078514/Husband-hacked-wife-death-meat-cleaver-changed-Facebook-status-single.html

  45. [Just a reminder that we all need to be careful what we say on the internet]

    anyone who is capable of hacking someone to death doesn’t need the internet to cause it

  47. McCain has been fairly successful so far at NOT looking like a very rich guy, although he is (unlike Turnbull, who can’t help himself). So the way is clear for the Repubs or their surrogates to run ads portraying Michelle Obama as a greedy parvenu already living it up at the taxpayers’ expense, and she hasn’t even got hold of the White House silver yet! The elites will scream, but the blue-collars might well react badly to such self-indulgence in the midst of economic downturn. I’d do it if I was in their position.

  48. [So the way is clear for the Repubs or their surrogates to run ads portraying Michelle Obama as a greedy parvenu already living it up at the taxpayers’ expense]

    How is ordering room service at a hotel at tax-payers expense?

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