Presidential election minus 21 days

A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 54.2 38.1 3196 17
Pennsylvania 53.2 39.2 3680 21
Iowa 54.4 40.7 692 7
Washington 54.3 41.8 1244 11
Wisconsin 52.0 41.2 4923 10
New Hampshire 53.0 42.5 2760 4
Minnesota 50.2 43.0 3195 10
New Mexico 49.4 42.4 2427 5
Colorado 51.2 44.7 4281 9
Maine 51.5 45.9 500 4
Nevada 49.5 45.5 3599 5
West Virginia 48.6 45.0 1122 5
Florida 49.1 47.0 3530 27
North Carolina 48.0 45.9 3574 15
Missouri 49.0 47.6 4018 11
North Dakota 45.1 44.0 1206 3
Virginia 48.1 47.8 3811 13
Ohio 47.2 49.1 3151 20
Indiana 45.2 48.3 1977 11
Others 175 155
RCP/Total 49.5 43.2 352 186

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Presidential election minus 21 days”

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  1. Adam and other HC fans,

    WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton puts the chances of her running for president again at near zero _ slightly higher than the chances she gives for becoming Senate majority leader or a Supreme Court justice.

    In an interview aired Tuesday on “Fox & Friends” on the Fox News Channel, Clinton, D-N.Y., was asked the chances, on a scale of 1 to 10, that she would be the next majority leader in the Senate.

    “Oh, probably zero,” she said. “I’m not seeking any other position than to be the best senator from New York that I can be.”

    Being nominated to the Supreme Court?

    “Zero,” Clinton said. “I have no interest in doing that.”

    Running for president again?

    “Probably close to zero,” she said. “There’s an old saying: Bloom where you’re planted.”

    The former first lady, who was elected to the Senate in 2000 and re-elected in 2006, said she looked forward to working as a senator with a Barack Obama administration.

  2. [
    Fourteen Changes Barack Obama Could Make in His First 30 Days

    Some time ago, I found 194 things Barack Obama would do as President. I took them from the plethora of Obama policy papers in the issues area of the official Obama site.

    There are many remarkable things about Barack Obama. Here are two:

    First, Obama is a governance junkie. Second, Barack has his act together.
    cut and paste of two reasons
    Obama will not sign any non-emergency bill without giving the American public an opportunity to review and comment on the White House website for five days.

    Obama will bring democracy and policy directly to the people by requiring his Cabinet officials to have periodic national broadband townhall meetings to discuss issues before their agencies.

    Think with the second one I mentioned that Obama is channeling Kevin 😉 …..

  3. The 3rd debate seems to be McCain’s last chance. Watching him argue with the maddies amongst his own supporters it is easy to recall why he was an outsider in his own party for so many years. And still is. Probably would have disappeared off the heartlands radar without Palin. Sad reflection on Republican Party politics and its dominance by the religious and rural right. Anyway he deserves to be judged by the company he keeps.

  4. Juliem @ 2,

    As a Clintonista, I find that slightly depressing. It’s a shame that the Americans aren’t going to elect the best person to lead their country (IMHO) in this time of financial crisis.

    However, I take comfort from the fact that they look set to elect the second-best person (Obama) and not the third-best (McCain). All of the other contenders in the primary campaigns (from both parties) were a bunch of hacks…

  5. Some shifts in the RCP Electoral Map:

    Colorado shifts from Toss-up to Leaning Obama
    Michigan shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
    Wisconscin shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama

    Obama is now up 313-158, with 67 (OH, IN, MO, WV, NV and NC) still toss-ups.

  6. Clinton has to say that at the moment, otherwise it raises the prospect that she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. She’s making a concession to the Party that they are all on the same team for this election.

    If he does somehow lose, it’d be a good bet she’ll be back and more determined than ever, though.

  7. Are these polls in swing states ever going to stabilise? I’ve been expecting them to level off at some stage, but day after day they just seem to keep moving Obama’s way.

  8. The 3rd debate seems to be McCain’s last chance.

    It’s very hard to see what he can do differently. If he is aggressive or dramatically changes his tone, he’ll seem slightly crazy and erratic. If he does more of the same, he’ll seem uninspired and without answers.

    Obama just needs to play the last debate with a very straight bat. As a few people have said, this election looks more and more like it’s out of McCain’s hands (i.e. only Obama can stuff it up).

  9. Sigh, Paul Kelly.,25197,24497984-12250,00.html

    Apparently Rudd “needed” this economic crisis to “save his political credentials and reputation”. Now that’s a claim one can make about Gordon Brown, but unlike Gordon Brown, Rudd did not need “saving”.

    The right-wing media seems hell-bent on giving off this image that people somehow hate Rudd even though all the polls say the exact opposite.

  10. [Running for president again?

    “Probably close to zero,” she said. “There’s an old saying: Bloom where you’re planted.”]
    No way! I thought she was going to divorce Bill, marry Barack, and become first lady again! (Assuming OBama wins)

    Obama has hit 80% chance of winning on Intrade. According to fivethirtyeight, the Democrats now have a 30% chance of winning 60 Senate seats (however, it looks like Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election).

  11. [Sigh, Paul Kelly.]
    Let me guess, there has been a PARADIGM shift away from FOLLY?

    They seem to be Kelly’s favourite words. I’m sure he could’ve used them in the same sentence in the current economic environment.

  12. [Obama now up 8.1 on the RCP National Average, due to a CBS/NYT poll showing him up by 14 points (!!!) over McCain.]

    Yeah, but Hillary would be up by 32.4%

  13. [Oh Dear

    “McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam”]

    Now let me get my Kevin Bacon hat out… according to the rabid right, Iraq was involved in 911, or at least with terrorists, and Saddam led Iraq, and McCain’s transition chief was convicted of aiding Saddam, who is now working for McCain, so MCCAIN PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!!!!!

    I love this game 🙂

  14. This is how I know the McCain campaign is a mess. There are three weeks to election day, and Palin is palining around with Rush Limbaugh, i.e. preaching to the converted on conservative talk radio:

    Surely if they want to win this they need to be appealing to centrists, moderates, uncommitted and independent voters. I doubt you can appeal to them by going on conservative radio stations.

  15. Unless they’re trying to do what I think they’re trying to do – work hard to make sure their base turns up to vote and hope that enough of Obama’s base don’t.

  16. [Unless they’re trying to do what I think they’re trying to do – work hard to make sure their base turns up to vote and hope that enough of Obama’s base don’t.]

    That’s the strategy they used (with considerable success) in 2004

  17. [That’s the strategy they used (with considerable success) in 2004]

    Except in 2004 the Dems had Kerry, with the charisma of a limp lettuce leaf

  18. [With Obama’s charisma comes a handful of perceived negatives as well – his “race”, his “inexperience” etc.]

    Couldn’t be worse than Kerry, and isn’t judging from the polls

  19. Interview with the lady who called Obama an “Arab”

    [Quinnell: He’s not an Arab either, he’s a —

    Bash (Reporter): His father was Muslim, and he’s a Christian.

    Quinnell: Yeah, but he’s still got Muslim in him. So that’s still part of him. I got all the stuff from the library and I could send you all kinds of stuff on him.]

    “he’s still got Muslim in him”!?

  20. [Like she was ever going to vote anything other than Republican]

    Oh sorry, I should have added that she would have DEFINITELY voted for Hillary

  21. Acorn-gate…….Wall Street journal 14/10/08

    Acorn is a US community agitiating for ‘left’ issues It also functions to get voters to register as Democrat voters

    ” Acorn is spending $16 million this year to register new Democrats and is already boasting it has put 1.3 million new voters on the rolls. The big question is how many of these registrations are real.

    (Both Democrat & Republican State Governments administrations hav charged this organization)

    Earlier this month, Nevada’s Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller requested a raid on Acorn’s offices, following complaints of false names and fictional addresses (including the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys). Nevada’s Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax said he saw rampant fraud in 2,000 to 3,000 applications Acorn submitted weekly.

    Then there’s Lake County, Indiana, which has already found more than 2,100 bogus applications among the 5,000 Acorn dumped right before the deadline. “All the signatures looked exactly the same,” said Ruthann Hoagland, of the county election board.
    Which brings us to Mr. Obama, who got his start as a Chicago “community organizer” at Acorn’s side. In 1992 he led voter registration efforts as the director of Project Vote, which included Acorn. This past November, he lauded Acorn’s leaders for being “smack dab in the middle” of that effort. Mr. Obama also served as a lawyer for Acorn in 1995, in a case against Illinois to increase access to the polls.
    During his tenure on the board of Chicago’s Woods Fund, that body funneled more than $200,000 to Acorn. More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. The campaign initially told the Federal Election Commission this money was for “staging, sound, lighting.” It later admitted the cash was to get out the vote.
    The Obama campaign is now distancing itself from Acorn, claiming Mr. Obama never organized with it and has nothing to do with illegal voter registration. Yet it’s disingenuous to channel cash into an operation with a history of fraud and then claim you’re shocked to discover reports of fraud. As with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, Mr. Obama was happy to associate with Acorn when it suited his purposes. But now that he’s on the brink of the Presidency, he wants to disavow his ties.”

    This is what you get when you “privatize” chasing voters to registar to vote at a POTUS election Just like CDO’s and CDSs people won’t say its wrong/corrupt , but after a sooner or later US election is totally rorted , those peoplke will then say ‘it should not hav happened’

    Accepting Wall Street Jounal info , wonder how many here 1/ condemn an organization like Acorn and 2/ condemn Obama’s association whatsoever with it

  22. ShowsOn25 & Dario26,

    Was that lady from Missouri? 😉 …… Sounds like the sort of thing my sister would say “still has Muslim in him” …..

    Sheeeesssshhh, that lady is a few kangaroos short, isn’t she?

  23. Ronster

    I note that the Obama campaign is referring to Fox News as the “24/7 ACORN News Channel” now.

    And the Conservatives won in Canada. Obviously the crash has moved North American voters to the right and Obama is doing an amazing job in fighting that proven trend.

  24. YEAH !!!!!!! My absentee voters ballot arrived in today’s mail 🙂 🙂 🙂 I’ll fill it out tonight and fast-post it back to Ann Arbor, Michigan in Thursday’s mail 🙂 🙂 🙂

  25. [
    as conservative author Christopher Buckley has left the National Review in the wake of his publishing an endorsement of Barack Obama on the Beast. Apparently, despite the pains Buckley took to disambiguate his private endorsement from the Review, his momentary wander off the reservation brought the same sort of hailstorm of oppobrium earned by Kathleen Parker when she criticized GOP vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin. Buckley took it upon himself to offer his resignation.

  26. Only here is the Huff Post cited as an independent news source.
    I’m old enough to remember when the Huff was Ariana Stasinopoulos, right-wing nut-job. Now she’s become frothingly left, but she’s still a nut-job.

  27. Ron @31

    Firstly, both candidates have associated with ACORN for the good reason that ACORN has never been involved with any voter fraud. It can only REGISTER voters. Any registrations which it considers remotely suspect, it alerts the appropriate state electoral officers to check out because it is not allowed to nullify a registration.
    Most of these “suspects” are obvious ones like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck, so assuming the state electoral officer did approve such a registration form, then someone is going to look silly dressed up like a Disneyland street character in order to attempt to vote.

    However, this latest desperate attack does have a benefit for Obama. The more that the Republican media (Fox, Limbaugh, Hannity etc.) waste their time on this irrelvant stuff, the less time they spend rubbishing Obama over matters that all polls show are really important to voters during this global economic crisis.

    This is not 2000, and people will not be casting their vote for the Pres. candidate they would rather have a beer with or against the Pres. candidate who is being attacke through guilt by association. Moreover, if guilt by association was important, McCain would be in a world of hurt trying to defend his repeated appearance on the radio program and flowery praise of convicted Watergate burgler, G. Gordon Liddy.

    As in past recession elections when people are extremely anxious about their jobs and savings (see 1980, 1992), the incumbent party’s candidate is going to lose because “It’s the economy, stupid!”

    Btw, mailed my absentee ballot yesterday.

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