The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.
UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:
The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.
It’s a good result for the Liberal party and the country ( we do need a viable opposition) as it weakens the nutty right wing within the party. If there had been no movement the nutty right position would not have been weakened and the instability and problems they cause would go on for longer.
Generic Person@40
TP, the suggestion that the Australian Government, Labor or Liberal, would willingly allow or orchestrate the drowning of 300 people is simply outrageous.
Ummm, Howard and the Liberal party will have to live with it, and silence might be the better option.
I agree with GP on SIEVX. The people to blame are the people-smugglers and the corrupt Indonesian officials who enabled them.
GP doesn’t happen often but I just wanted to let you know that I agree that Turnball’s satisfaction numbers ARE intersting. He is obviously doind a better job of opposition leader than Half in the eyes of the electorate – my guess is because he is moving away from the Mom and Pop nonsence and putting forward actual ideas.
The numbers are all the more interesting because of the lack of any real movement in the headline TPP. It seems that the electorate now feels quite well served (and better represented) by both Lab and Lib at a federal level than we have seen for a long time. Could it be that the death of Howards divisive politics IS actually restoring faith in politics and politicians?
Maybe something to be learned for both Lab and Lib at the state level. Perhaps people really are tired of the (increasingly nonexistant and outdated) traditional battle lines?
No 44
Sorry, but that’s rubbish. It’s interesting that you’re all quick to lay blame on the Howard government, yet are not even willing to accept that these boat people were also known to willingly sabotage their own boats (and thus the lives of themselves and their children) in the hope of getting saved.
But of course, no-one will say that is morally turpiditudinous.
turpid
For a government to fall so low that people could even think it could be involved in deaths for electoral advantage is an indication what a lowly creature it had become. It didn’t get much better for the Howard government’s reputation after that – baby over board, AWB, Hick’s incarceration without trial for years, Muslim bashing scare mongering, Haneef fabrication, lying Australia into war and the other usual stuff that became common fare with Howard’s lot and neo-conservatives generally – the government and politics of hate, greed, fear and retribution. No point in rehashing in detail all of the Howard era’s sickness here but it does serve as a reminder just have how lucky we were that Rudd came along when he did and saved Australia at the 11th hour.
I could just imagine the Howard hatchet men using the current crisis to implement Workchoices phases 2, 3 and 4 well and truly making us indenture servants of corporate Australia. So I guess no matter what happens electorally we know that that sinister Dalek has been extricated from power and Australia made safe from him.
Syllable-wise, “turpitudinous” is turgid, but it’s in the OED.
(“turpiditudinous” isn’t.)
TP, whether the children were thrown overboard or not, the outcome is the same since the boat’s passengers were willingly sabotaging it such that it would sink and therefore force the navy to save them. Costello argued as much, and I agree with him. What parent in their right mind would put their child’s life at risk unnecessarily in the middle of the Indian Ocean?
As for David Hicks, he served 6 years for fighting with terrorists. Enough said.
The intelligence relied upon in Iraq was also the intelligence relayed to the United Nations. That it may have been fabricated or mistaken by the CIA is not the fault of Howard. Indeed, the UN was sufficiently worried enough in saying that thousands of chemical agents could not be accounted for.
AWB is not a government-controlled entity, but it is a protected monopoly. A royal commission found no wrong doing by the Government. Insinuate all you want, but you can’t misrepresent the facts.
[he government and politics of hate, greed, fear and retribution.]
Rubbish.
[For a government to fall so low that people could even think it could be involved in deaths for electoral advantage is an indication what a lowly creature it had become.]
Plenty of people think governments are complicit in some sort of wrongdoing. It’s not particularly unique. By your logic, it would be appropriate to use same argument about Rudd’s involvement with Brian Burke. The fact that his character had become so eroded as to be seen to be in the pocket of Brian Burke…..
No 59
Yes, sorry I can’t edit posts. Typo.
It will be a long road home for us Libs, but so long as Malcolm brings the TPP vote to 53/47 in favour of Labor by the end of the year I will be a happy man.
I just wish we had 1st Past the Post voting, Prefential voting is just stupid!
The Poll would then read if we had 1PTP…
ALP – 41
Coalition – 38
Greens – 13
That looks much more like a closer political landscape then 55-45 doesnt it!
turpid is the root adjective and is much more elegant. the false chain turpid > turpitude > turpitudinous is as bas as: administer > administration > administrate, though not as common.
Perhaps we should just have the Divine Right of Members for Wentworth, Glen?
GP
Defending the indefensible only reminds people of the past. Noecon politics is over, big time. If the Liberal party is to have any future it has put the past behind it and move to the center.
“turpid is the root adjective and is much more elegant”
You might be right, but I’m generally wary of such prescriptions! (Due to years of suffering pernickety know-it-alls in the letters pages of broadsheet newspapers …)
So now, if I’m reading this article right, on Alcopops Allbull is all alone
“Liquor industry changes alcopops tune”
“In these challenging economic times it is more important than ever that the federal parliament makes decisions that protect the Australian economy and do not lead to a shortfall in Government revenues,” DSICA spokesman Stephen Riden said
http://news.smh.com.au/national/liquor-industry-changes-alcopops-tune-20081013-4zvp.html
Fredn at number 64 wrote:
[If the Liberal party is to have any future it has put the past behind it and move to the center]
That’s their trouble. They remain stubbornly convinced of the ‘rightness’ of their position, on nearly everything.
Take WorkChoices, probably the principal reason for their removal from office last year.
One might reasonably expect that, after flying that particular policy, then seeing how the people hated and feared it, the Liberals might admit they were out of touch and have a rethink on matters IR.
But, nope, they stubbornly cling to their extremist position …
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24439000-5013404,00.html
The Australian, 3 October 2008
[(The Coalition’s federal industrial relations spokesman Michael Keenan) … said the Liberal Party still had a “philosophical position” on workplace relations but “obviously we are also not going to argue with the Australian people about what they told us in 2007”.]
(my emphasis)
So … in other words, they are admitting that people don’t like it or want it, but the Party is not about to drop it!
Stay tuned for them to impose philosophically-extreme IR if they are ever re-elected.
Their ABC rooting for Allbull like their life depends on it!
Have a look at their take on the Govt $5bil package
Big smiling photo of Allbull with heading
“Turnbull to back expected stimulus package”
Seems they no longer even bother to report Govt policy announcements anymore just make big bold headlines of the Fibs reply trying to give them credit.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390199.htm
And this on their top stories
Same photo of Allbull with heading “$5 billion tonic?” giving the first glance impression that it’s his policy
http://abc.com.au/news/
Inner Westie, the point about pernickity know-it-alls is that they do, by definition, know it all. So pay attention.
LOL
(Oh, alright.)
We were saying here yesterday that the quickest and most effective way to boost economic activity was direct cash payment increases running in conjunction with some insta-stimulus to construction to drag the effect out over 12-18 months.
Bang on all round.
First home owners grant doubled to 14K, first builders grant upped to 21K, $1400 lumpsum for pensioners, boosts to carers plus boosts via FTB A and B.
So we sorted out that problem yesterday – anyone for world peace today?
Polly Bludger smarty pantses. 🙂
“World peace through the disciplined application of overwhelming force” I believe that is the slogan of the Strategic Air Command, I’ve always liked it.
Anyone watching Rudd and Swan’s press conference?
“Under the package:
– families will receive a Christmas bonus of $1000 per child
– single pensioners will get a $1400 payment
– pensioner couples will get $2100
The strategy includes five key measures, Mr Rudd said.
– $4.8 billion for an immediate down payment on long term pension reform;
– $3.9 billion in support payments for low and middle income families;
– $1.5 billion investment to help first home buyers buy a home;
– $187 million to create 56,000 new training places in 2008-09;
– Accelerate the implementation of the government’s three nation building funds and bring forward the commencement of investment in nation building projects to 2009.”
What idiot journalist asked the question “Does this pension backflip mean the Opposition was right all along?”
75 – No surprises there. That voice was David Spears. Sky Noos has been pushing that line all morning.
Can’t wait to see the Opposition get ripped in Question time.
Possum @ 71. PM Rudd most probably reads this blog. A lot of smart cookies in here, and one or two clever marsupials as well.
Why would the opposition get ripped in QT??
Especially when the Coalition have been arguing for increases to Pensions?
More like Labor going to get thumped too me!
Also there would be no money for all this to happen if we hadnt paid off Labor’s 96b debt and created billion dollar surpluses!
Let it be remembered that less than a year ago (last August in fact) the then-government argued against a $30 dollar a week raise when it was proposed by the Greens. Then they left office with inflation at 16-year high, and rising, leaving pensioners in the lurch.
@79 Because the Liberals wanted to only increase the aged pension. Labor wanted to increase all pensions in the 2009 budget which they have brought forward.
@80 The economy was already recovering after the late 80s/early 90s global recession (global recession? yes that’s right, global, as in, not caused by Labor’s 80s/90s economic policies, which were quite similar to Howard’s policies – Labor was the founder of economic rationalism in Australia and don’t ever forget that). Howard only managed to pay it off thanks to slashing health/education/infrastructure and divert it in to the budget instead which sat there doing nothing. Then came the mining boom.
Come off it Cuppa you don’t expect Glen to own up to that do you?
[Especially when the Coalition have been arguing for increases to Pensions?]
To the single OAP… not all of them
Of course the economic crisis gives Labor the excuse to push through a lot of stuff the Liberals would normally block and complain about.
The predicted global down turn may make it easier for Rudd on the ETS, the slowing doing some of the job for the planet. Be interesting to see what the estimated impact is.
[Come off it Cuppa you don’t expect Glen to own up to that do you?]
Course I don’t GB. Though he does of course take credit for the surpluses, without mentioning that it was the mining boom that made them possible.
Indeed, and the Government has never said that they were opposed to pension increases, they wanted a complete approach to fixing the whole system. Unfortunately due to GLOBAL financial crisis, a shot in the arm is needed but so is long term reform – which the government is committed.
Seriously Glen if your argument for the Libs is whining about 10 year old debts it shows how baseless they are.
Different topic – The Greens polled 13% in this poll, their highest ever and the second highest from a third party. The Democrats got 17% at some stage.
The Rudd government’s move is a double edged sword. The opposition has learnt not to attack the government’s economic moves in the current economic climate as it puts voters offside, bipartisanship is the order of the day.
So the opposition can either support the government, a win for Rudd, or they can criticise the government, a win for Rudd.
Labor remains on 55-45 on 2pp, which they’ve been on or above since December 2006. Howard could only have had wet dreams over those polling figures!
The slowing economy argument is a fallacy regarding climate. If climate change was some obscure little occurrence that was going to happen way out in the future then maybe slowing economies would take some weight off it. But whilst the developed world economies are “slowing”, developing countries are still growing, and their carbon emissions are still growing, by significant amounts.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/14/newspoll-tuesday-turnbull-performance-edition/
Rudd continues to wipe the floor with the Lib/Nat opposition.
ABC blog has the usual Fibs supporters telling fibs saying Disability Support Pensioners and some cares won’t get nothin’ and now they will have to eat dog food too lol
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390519.htm
Here is the truth of the matter.
“Pension changes
The Federal Government said the pension bonus announced today will be a lump sum of $1400 to single pensioners and $2100 to pensioner couples. It applies to:
– Age Pensioners;
– Disability Support Pensioners;
– Carer Payment recipients;
– Wife and Widow B Pensioners; Partner, Widow and Bereavement Allowees;
– Veterans Affairs Service Pensioners;
– Veterans Income Support Supplement recipients;
– Veterans Affairs Gold Card holders eligible for Seniors Concession Allowance;
– Those of age pension age who receive Parenting Payment, Special Benefit, or Austudy; and
– Eligible Self Funded Retirees holding a Commonwealth Senior Health Card (CSHC)
– People who are receiving Carer Allowance will also receive $1,000 for each eligible person in their care.
The Government said it includes help for self-funded retirees who are eligible for a Commonwealth Senior Health Care Card.
Those who hold a Commonwealth Seniors Health Card or are Veterans Gold Card holders eligible for Seniors Concession Allowance will receive a payment of $1,400 if they are single or $2,100 to couples.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-pumps-in-10b/2008/10/14/1223749999940.html?page=2
The Opposition has been arguing for a pension increase because they fear that Labor is going to do the job properly with its across the boards pension review. The measures announced today are a high impact downpayment.
64 – and to rub salt into the wound Paul Krugman is awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics.
Why is Turnbull giving a press conference? He has nothing to say and looks like a twit.
[ABC blog has the usual Fibs supporters telling fibs saying Disability Support Pensioners and some cares won’t get nothin’ and now they will have to eat dog food too lol]
Yeah, never mind the fact Rainmaker and Rainman were proposing to give them nothing themselves…
What’s new?
[Why is Turnbull giving a press conference? He has nothing to say and looks like a twit]
One word: ego
What’s he taking credit for now? Rudd stole the stimulus package off me, not Turnbull.
No its because we’ve been arguing for most if not all of these measures and it was our surplus that is paying for them not Labor’s!
Except the Coalition has not been arguing for an increase in the first home buyers grant, they have not be arguing for a bonus bonus to carers, they have not been arguing for a bonus to parents, they have not been arguing for an increase to infrastructure spending, they have not been arguing for a comprehensive review of the pension system.
On the other hand they voted down giving pensioners money last year and Malcolm Turnbull was arguing AGAINST giving them money this year.
David Spears:
[The Opposition can take some credit for pressuring the government on pensions]
Really? Let’s imagine a world where some irrelevent tool was leader of the Opposition – let’s call him Wilson.
If Wilson was leader, would the ALP have released the same package?
Yep – for all the reasons we went through here yesterday.
Wouldn’t it be nice to imagine a world where toolish insta-punditry wasn’t completely off with the fairies.