The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.
UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:
The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.
What is Turnbull going to say in his “address” tonight? We agree with the package but we want the details that Govt. Depts have given to the Govt. ?
Remember the last MYEFO? when the Liberal Party claimed that election promises were not election promises, because they were in MYEFO? $5 Billion worth.
Where is the treasury advice for the $5 billion they committed to in the runup to the last election?
I wonder Turnbull or anyone could think he had anything meaningful to say on the economy when he was totally incompetent on the matter of FAI?
[THE global investment bank Goldman Sachs and international reinsurer Gen Re have promised vigorous defences to the HIH liquidator’s $529 million claim of misleading and deceptive conduct.
The two companies yesterday filed formal defence statements to the claim, which has now solidified into allegations that the true financial condition of FAI Insurances was concealed until after HIH spent $295 million taking it over in 1998. The claim includes interest of $234 million, a figure which will rise by the time the case comes to trial in 2009.
Goldman Sachs Australia and its prominent former chairman, the federal Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, are alleged to have misled the non-executive directors of FAI.
Goldman Sachs was financial adviser to FAI during the takeover. Mr Turnbull and an executive, Russel Pillemer, another defendant to the suit, had carriage of the advice.
]
BTW, noting Rudds comments on executive salary excess (quite right), proponents of free markets might care to explain these two gems:
http://www.law.harvard.edu/faculty/bebchuk/pdfs/Bebchuk-Grinstein.Growth-of-Pay.pdf
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:d5OoApOIEwEJ:www.jape.org/component/option,com_remository/Itemid,26/func,download/id,36/chk,6b38ce8c8402c0f2c2cc241bdecd6798/no_html,1/+shields+executive+pay&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5
The first points out that Exec pay has gone up out of proportion to growth in the general economy or firms profits.
The second shows that in Australia the relationship between exec pay and firm perforamnce is actually negative. That is, the higher paid the executive, the lower the profit.
TP
Thanks for that one. It woud be funny if there was an election while Turnbull was in court as a defendant.
Ruawake 451
Exactly, and its not the only one. What about the reduction in top tax rates, or the $10 billion Murray scheme? $10 billion preventing a national recession doesn’t seem so bad by comparison, given that farming is less than 3% of GDP.
You can quite easily see a dislocation between executive pay and performance if a company wants to attract a high profile CEO to turn the company around or raise loan capital from lenders or shareholders.
But ultimately this focus on executive pay is absolutely irrelevant for the economy. It is a trivial part of the profits of most companies and is surely is a matter for the owners of the company, the shareholders. This is just political grand-standing.
The problem is that the banks are starting to realise that the guarantees are not coming for free and that the government wants a say on the running of the businesses.
TPS
The problem with executive pay is not the amount of money they are paid, it is the share incentives they are given. If they take risks to cause a short term rise in the share price, they gain.
When it goes pear shaped, they get out of jail free. This is what needs to be addressed.
Ruwake (457), but surely the shareholders of the company should sort that out?
Richard Severin Fuld, Jr. was rated the number 1 CEO. The defense rests. 😛
Just saw Turnbull’s “Opposition reply to the PM’s address to the Nation Thingy”. Now I need a drink or two to figure out what he was trying to say. 🙂
Turnball’s “Address To The Nation”.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200810/r303119_1318804.asx
There was a few minutes of my life I’ll never get back – thanks for that Frank 😀
I’ll join the chorus of “what was the point?”
What the hell is Turnbull doing adressing the nation? What a waste of time and space. Still, if there is ever the slightest possibility of a cheap vote to be won, you can count on a liberal finding it.
Turnbull is in a tough position because he carried on Nelson’s pseudo-populism. But I think what Turnbull was doing here was laying some markers for potential problems for the government in the future:
1) the government did the bail-out more for political reasons than economic, which is why they are coy on what Treasury said
2) the government has built up expectations over what it can do with the banks in return for the guarantee.
So for Turnbull, I didn’t think it was too bad.
Perhaps the point was that it was offered to him, and that the ABC is required to do this when the Prime Minister wants air time for a public announcement?
“AUSTRALIA has topped the rankings in a prosperity index of more than 100 countries,
In light of this:
perhaps cleaning up the funny goings on at AWB and turfing out those who turned a blind eye/failed to notice was responsible for our jump to the top of the rating.
Generic Person @ 435 –
all that will do is cause a mass exodus of patients into the public system and more so than the medicare surcharge levy changes. And $3 billion won’t be enough to cover it.
I doubt it. A lot of people are on the cheapest tables they can get away with to avoid the tax penalty. Ones that incur big co-payments if used.
All but one of the patients I shared a public hospital ward a while back had private insurance but elected to be treated as public patients.
Putting in place measures to restrict the pays of corporate executives is one of the most necessary and important policies that can be made in the entire industrial relations system.
Those who think that it’s the responsibility of shareholders to keep executive salaries in check have ZERO understanding of the practical realities involved in this issue.
Executives who are rewarded for their failure, or who are grossly overpaid, or who have the power to pay themselves what they like, is a substantial flaw of the whole capital sysem.
Ta William – if that’s true, you learn something everyday.
I have been told that Turnbull demanded a right of reply? Did the ALP ever get a right of reply to any of ‘Address to the Nation’ given by John Howard.
I am becoming a little tired of Fran Kelly on Breakfast trying to push every guest into giving a favourable view on Mr Turnbull and an unfavourable one on Rudd. This morning must have been very frustrating for her as no-one wanted to cheer on her favourite.
I want MY ABC hosts to be more factual and less opinionated. Their choice of words is usually uncomplimentary to Rudd & Co. Today they are using the phrase “Rudd is having to DEFEND” yesterday’s announcement. The word ‘explaining’ could have been used but would not have had the same effect. I will be sending off a complaint.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
I should stress that I was only speculating.
SNIP: Abusive swear words not permitted – The Management.
Richard Severin Fuld, Jr. made $22 million the month before Lehman brothers went bankrupt. Close to $500 million in the past 6 years.
Is this excessive TPS ?
The ABC is required to offer equal time.
SNIP: Response to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
ruwake (473), it certainly is excessive compared to what I am paid, but so what? If the shareholders of Lehman’s, or the board, are silly enough to pay him too much compared to what CEOs for such businesses are worth on the recruitment market then it is up to them. It made little difference to the financial crisis or anything much else.
The trouble about all this moralising about greed is that CEOs of stuffed up companies may be easy targets but it just lays the political grounds for austerity. We haven’t had the down-side yet from the government. Just the hand-outs so far. Do people seriously think that is all that is coming?
Bob Brown should go on TV tomorrow and address the nation.
Though the poor Greens probably couldn’t afford the air time.
The end result would be that Turnbull would be the laughing stock of the country.
[Is this excessive TPS ?]
Obscene would be a better description
“The ABC is required to offer equal time.”
To every political party?
Either way it doesn’t explain why the addresses were delivered on Channel 10…
BH @ 469 –
I want MY ABC hosts to be more factual and less opinionated.
I’d just prefer they’d STFU if they couldn’t say anything constructive. I then might have avoided having to listen to one ABC local radio commentator, in the absence of anything to pillory Rudd over, went on and on about the closing remark in Rudd’s address – something along the lines of: “We will get through this crisis together” Apparently this was way to banal for this bloke because of course it was self evident that we would unless we dropped dead first. Life is just too short for such nonsense. SIGH!
Dario if someone paid that to me I can assure you I would not think it obscene. You of course would hand it back in disgust.
This is the policy required to control salaries of executives relative to other salaries in the work force:
Any executive who earns more than 100 times the average yearly salary SHOULD be taxed at a threshold of 80 cents in the dollar.
Where an executive feels greedy. Other salaries should rise in accordance with their contribution and abilities to the company and economy.
It is obscene that a company can lose two thirds of its value, lays off staff, and pay its CEO $30 mil in bonuses. After they kick the bucket, they will leave it to their spoilt little kids who never have to work a day in their lives and blow it on partying, drugs and alcohol.
On the topic of the pathetic MSM.
Australian headline:
“Banks blast Kevin Rudd over executive salaries crackdown”
By-line:
“AUSTRALIA’S big banks have savaged Kevin Rudd’s plan to crack down on executive salaries, asserting that the nation’s financial institutions were “not being bailed out by the Government”.”
So apparently he’s being “savaged” and “blasted”.
But what did the “big banks” actually say?
“Australian Bankers Association chief executive David Bell said the ABA would examine the proposal referred to in the Prime Minister’s speech today “when more detail is made available”.”
Adam – I have still been reliably informed that Mr Turnbull DEMANDED the time – even if the ABC was prepared to give it. He was probably on the phone 30 sec. after Rudd’s announcement of his speech yesterday.
Aside from that, perhaps it is time for them all to be strictly fair to both sides. I know the ABC’s excuse is that they have to play devil’s advocate but, regular listeners to RN’s Breakfast know that Fran Kelly is beside herself with delight when interviewing the Coalition. Easy questions, no devil’s advocate there but lots of sarcasm and cynicism for Rudd & Co.
The scrupulously fair Michelle Grattan continually corrects Fran’s assertions of the Govt’s failings.
So a bit less of the misuse of my taxes by ABC hosts would be appreciated.
[We haven’t had the down-side yet from the government. Just the hand-outs so far. Do people seriously think that is all that is coming?]
Not if they were listening. Mr Rudd said tough times are coming. Apart from what Mr Rudd has had to say, people would have to be seriously blind if they haven’t caught up to the fact that storm clouds are engulfing every economy in the world.
PS: I agree with others who’ve said that Turnbull looks rather silly making his own grand address to the nation. He’s not the PM, his party is not in power, we voted them out at the election.A pointless stunt. If he’s playing politics, grandstanding (and that must be the conclusion) while the country faces the worst economic peril in our lifetimes, then it is a disgrace.
Well, no, The Piping Shrike, I wouldn’t have thought so, particularly given one of the senior Fed. Reserve people (California, I think) today declared the U.S. to be in recession. What strikes me is, all the nonsense in the MSM aside about Rudd being a workaholic, I don’t think that the marathon meetings about the global economic situation, and then the announcements about the guarantees for the deposits and foreign borrowing of the banks, plus the $10 billion Xmas presents, is about nothing. It’s certainly about something fairly dire. I also don’t think Rudd has been on the phone to just about everyone, is anything other than an indication that any amount of excrement is hitting, and will continue to hit, the global fan. Turnbull’s pompous grandstanding may be political markers to position himself for further attacks on the gov’t., but he may be playing a dangerous game, if it is as ghastly as I suspect. Could look very soon like a pompous no nothing.
It’s just not that simple to say that shareholders should reject gross payments to executives.
Sorry, no should be know, of course
Even if Turnbull was offered the opportunity to go on TV (again I don’t understand what the ABC has to do with it because I’m fairly sure Rudd’s address was broadcast on Ten, not ABC?) that doesn’t necessarily mean he should have taken it.
The last time we had a PM addressing the nation was when Howard was detailing the problems he perceived and the responses he was talking regarding Iraq. Did the opposition leader at the time feel it was important to say both “We support you” and “Why are you doing it?”.
[“Sorry team. I am not sure what’s in the water at Neuberger Berman”]
TPS do you still say that Work Choices was not a factor at the last election? 😛
I believe that last Friday was a defining/changing moment in the world as we know it. Today we have the US government buying into banks ffs. PBers here can argue about the merits of left/right, Labor/Liberal, etc. However, it is all irrelevant. The crisis is beyond point scoring.
There are hairy times ahead for all. Batten down the hatches.
[Even if Turnbull was offered the opportunity to go on TV (again I don’t understand what the ABC has to do with it because I’m fairly sure Rudd’s address was broadcast on Ten, not ABC?) that doesn’t necessarily mean he should have taken it.]
In Perth it was shown on all 3 Commercial Stations and on the ABC – and I’m assuming SBS.
I’m in Sydney but I definitely remember checking ABC… Unless I accidentally flicked to ABC2. So the commercial stations gave Turnbull a free run out of “balance”?
Harry (486), Turnbull will always run the risk of looking pompous because he is. But while I think he is generally politically tone deaf, I think he has touched on weaknesses in the government’s position. Maybe Australia is heading for a recession but Rudd was saying it wasn’t three days before and you would think they would release the revised Treasury forecasts if so. Tanner was very shifty on this point on Lateline last night.
Ruwake (490), yep, because Gillard keeping most of it has not done her popularity any harm at all!
those foretelling doom and gloom
I recommend rhinoceros:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070605/
“A truly strange and unusual film, involves Gene Wilder as a man who seems all alone in the world as everyone else has started to catch a strange flu, which starts with bumps on there foreheads and then eventually turns them into raving lunatics, and finally into a Rhinocerous.”
Geez, after watching that “right of reply” I must say we are so damn lucky to have Malcolm Turnbull. He knows everything. He is so amazing; truly an economic giant, a financial soothsayer.
If only we could let him be dictator of the nation, life would be good.
Many of us have seen it all before GG but this is the first time we have seen a concerted effort by all world leaders to work it through. Hopefully they will succeed.
It is a pity that the ‘boom/bust’ cycle of 10 years arrived a little late this time. I remember 61, 71, Psoeidon/share crash mid-late 70s, 81/82, 87 share crash, 91, 2001 (lost heaps in super on retirement in 2002).
Apart from sub-prime stuff we’ve been encouraged to run the credit card bonanza for too long. Pity it was never called a debit card – that may have made people think a little differently.
Just hope that Rudd, Swan & Tanner keep working on it 24/7. I don’t trust Mr Turnbull – his ethics seem a little loose.
Maybe the commercial stations are licking their lips at the thought of the gravy train of government advertising that runs bountifully when the Liberals are in power (witness Howard).
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howards-2bn-splurge/2007/09/01/1188067438538.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
There is little doubt why Turnbull was able to inappropriately got on the ABC to do some politicking – it is run by Howard loving hacks determined to get the Liberal party elected.
Fran Kelly is of course, in my opinion, is a waste of time and awful at her job, my 14 year old niece would do a far better job than her at political reporting and interviewing – but she has set the bar pretty low.
The OO reminds me of those scraps of paper that fall out fortune cookies. But at least a cookie is something that has some value.
[I’m in Sydney but I definitely remember checking ABC… Unless I accidentally flicked to ABC2. So the commercial stations gave Turnbull a free run out of “balance”?]
I was referring to Rudd’s speech being on the commercials and the ABC – I have no idea on Turnbull