Essential Research: 58-42

No Newspoll this week, but the always dependable Essential Research weekly survey shows Labor’s lead stuck at 58-42. Also featured are prime ministerial approval ratings (56 per cent for, 31 per cent against) and questions on the Productivity Commission’s maternity leave recommendations (trending negative), party leaders’ responses to the financial crisis and government plans to tackle climate change (don’t go far enough).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

361 thoughts on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. To be fair, I think the following could all be blamed on the current crisis:
    1 Wall Street – trading banks paid excessive bonuses to people to set up these deals
    2 Loan agents – paid commissions to write loans that would never be repaid
    3 Banks – failed to check assett value against loans
    4 Rating agencies – failed to assess risk of these deals
    5 Federal reserve – kept interest rates too low as assett bubble built
    6 Bush treasury – reduced funding of regualtory agencies and had no solution

    Items 5 and 6 are the republicans fault. Item 4 is incompetence. Items 1, 2 and 3 are pure greed.

  2. Tired to read that page on CDOs Socrates

    HUH???

    A bet on future cash flows…or something

    invest in investments that bet on the performance on other investments in other assets …or something..

    I will stick to the horsies.

  3. Thats the point mao – they were designed to be complicated contracts to avoid normal reporting rules. People should have been suspicious. Governments should have acted.

  4. Socrates,

    You didn’t mention:

    7. The Akerman Theory: Hypocritical chardonnay socialists Kevin Rudd and fat millionaire wife with no dress sense, Therese Rein, bent on destroying the Australian economy with their Labor-style dogmatism and dishonest pork-barrelling promises, sold a house for a profit once and underpaid workers while covering up a rape case that never happened 20 years ago, and which they had nothing to do with in any case.

    Typical of you Leftist apologists to leave out the real reasons we are in this mess.

  5. BB – and the GENIUS of it is that Rudd and Rein make it look like a GLOBAL collapse when really it was just them all along.

    And all Malcolm can do is make the banks pass on 0.3% more than they were going to anyway.

    That’s the trouble with lefties – they’re just so darned smart (and – to get the Chinese conspiracy element in there, which you left out of the Akerman theory – inscrutible as well).

  6. Dawson, clearly it was all Rudd’s doing.

    Now “his” RBA 1% rate drop has “flopped” according to the Tele, we see him as the true economically illiterate, child-molesting, swindling, junket-happy, stip club- addicted, limelighting, drunk on jet fuel Prime Tourist that Pies has been telling us he’s been all along.

    Why did I not see this before?

    (Racks brains)

  7. Best part in Ackerman’s article was how he blamed the financial crisis on the US Democrats and then by saying that the closest party to Labor principles in the US is the Democrats, it was the ALP’s fault. FLAWLESS LOGIC.

    Really, really looking forward to the first polls coming out after the financial mess. I would not be surprised at all if there was an upward swing for both Rudd and Labor.

  8. Correction to #106:

    P.S. please insert the phrase “kow-towing Chinese fanboy” between the words “junket-happy” and “strip club-addicted”.

  11. Kev and Julia just held press conference. Both well on top of things, calm and confident sounding, talking up Australia.
    A new report ranks our banks 4 out of 134 countries. Poms & Yanks were in the 40’s

  14. Today’s SMH was extremely amused at the contradiction between our banks and those everywhere else. Everywhere else in the world they’re on their hands and knees begging for trillions of dollars and here the Commonwealth is grinning ear to ear that it managed to raise capital and buy a ridiculously underpriced asset like BankWest from struggling HBOS.

  15. Hey Bushfire Bill, that bloody “kow-towing Chinese fanboy” has been at it again (lol)

    “Mandarin-speaking Rudd said he telephoned Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday and was told commodity demand would hold up despite China’s growth slipping from “11 and 12 percent down to 9 and 10 percent”. “Part of the long-term strategy of this government, and the strategy for the period immediately ahead, is how to more deeply and broadly engage with the Chinese economy,” Rudd told Australian media on Thursday.”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSYD22229520081009

    Also in same article, I don’t know what polls they’ve been looking at?
    “China’s economy may be critical to Rudd’s fledgling centre-left government, elected only last year, with polls slipping and analysts warning that a severe downturn could see Rudd ousted after only one three-year term in 2010 elections.”

  17. Oz – you get the feeling that sub-editor just has given up trying.

    BB, like a fool after reading your comments I took a squiz at Akerman’s blog.

    shudder

    Never again!!!

  19. “Part of the long-term strategy of this government, and the strategy for the period immediately ahead, is how to more deeply and broadly engage with the Chinese economy,”

    Hate to say it – but predicted this bit of play by Rudd, bad news for Turnbull. Go Kev, travel to China and see if the media and Turnbull still play their meme.

  21. He should’ve gone to China, not just made the phone call!

    That way he would have baited the Rainmaker into the “Kevin747” crap and come back a “deal to save the Australian economy”.

    Thanks for the link, Steve.

  24. Rumour has it that in his younger days, and with a belly full of merlot, Piers Ackerman once plucked up for a round or two in Jimmy Sharman’s tent. Funny story. He raised his fists to his nose but was instantly stricken once his lumbering adversary began to move. The next five minutes were sheer vaudeville. Two grown men chasing each other round the ring; one grunting and kicking up dust, the other skipping and shrieking like a clown.

    The pitiful plum-faced clown was eventually hounded out of the tent, the car park, then the town, when it became clear he was all mouth. Next stop Sydney, and a job with The Daily Telegraph!

    (Sorry. That all came to me in a dream.)

  25. Funny that… Pies fancying himself as a boxer also came to my mind one horrible night I’d thought I’d forgotten.

    I’ll give him credit for having a sort-of ability to come back at sniper-bloggers chancing their arms with a quick smartalec reply, but I’ve seen better right here, and quicker off the mark, too.

    I’m just wondering what Rainman is going to come up with next. Whatever it is it’ll be something he has no or little connection with, and which was going to happen anyway, with or without his kibbitzing. But he’ll make sure to take the credit for it anyway. I’d think his rainmaking of the other day has already receded into history. Maybe he’ll try for: “Gillard has run up the white flag on unemployment”, or similar?

    You can usually tell what it’s going to be because it’s on the ABC’s web site in the afternoon.

  26. Ah, yes… here we go, with Tony “Rasputin” Abbott testing the waters.

    The original idea behind Work Choices rears its ugly head: “Good for the good times, grrrreat for the bad times…”

    Workplace and enviro policies need rethink in global crisis
    …
    Workplace relations changes to give unions more power; changes that make workers more expensive to employ; and new environmental imposts might need to be rethought.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/workplace_and_envrio_policies_need_rethink_in_global_crisis/

  27. The Govt. has a big advantage in this “Global Financial Crisis” everyone knows its Global. Whitlam and Keating also faced “Global” problems but it was perceived to be their mis-management and thus their fault.

    If Rudd and Swan can keep the perception that Australia is well placed and appear to be doing the correct things to keep our economy growing they will reap the rewards.

    My guess is that Aussie interest rates will fall to about 4.5%, no pain for the Govt. in that.

    The big problem will be employment, this will vary greatly between States, WA and QLD will probably be OK. NSW will be a shocker the rest in between.

    A challenge but if the Govt. can pull it off, they are in for longer than the last mob.

  28. How so Ruawake what has Rudd done? Nothing he’s done not one thing to make this crisis better or worse the system was a Liberal one that we set up, if you think Labor are going to become the preferred party on economics you’re mad.

  29. During the previous “Global” problems, the lack of the ready and instant availability of overseas news through internet probably gave weight to the perception of it only being an Australian problem. Now, there is alot more reporting of overseas news.

    re. unemployment … while the national rate rose 0.2%, I think I heard it reported that the NSW rate actually fell 0.1 % … go figure

  30. I get just annoyed as anyone at Piers and the OO’s crazy blogs and opinions (Steketee’s today is a ripper), but I wonder whether continually discussing them here helps. It just gives them exposure that they DONT deserve. How about just respond on their sites rather than give them publicity here?? Just a thought

  31. Andrew that’s stupid by your logic then we shouldnt discuss ‘crazy’ left wing writers thats just stupid everybody is entitled to a say regardless of their political persuasion.

  33. Ah look it up Dario who brought in the safeguards who set up the oversights on banking ahhh Costello wake up and smell the coffee the Libs stopped this economic catastrophe from getting worse you just hate to admit this.

  34. Glen

    The situation we are in is due mainly to the inquiries and reviews that Costello established (but now such things are bad).

    I was talking about perceptions, which is the main game in politics.

  35. Oh and Dario, we also paid off your 96b dollar debt see just how well we’d be going if we had that debt under these circumstances!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The Liberals are the main reason that we arent suffering as much as the yanks!

  39. I well I think it is great that Abbott and his friends over at the far right of the Liberal party can’t bring themselves to drop Workchoices even though the public gave them a loud message. It demonstrates they still live in denial and will still be the old cynical bunch as ever. Workchoices will kill them again.

    What better thing to look forward to than to give business the power to treat you like indentured servants and also rip away your entitlements just when you are going to need the extra few dollars. Sure the nervous public is going to love that. Good timing as usual from Abbott.

    Also Costello was probably Australia’s worst Treasurer after Howard. They both wasted a decade of record surpluses. They neglected health, education infrastructure. There is no great skill in standing at the till and raking in the money from the Keating/China economy.

    The DD trigger may be the infrastructure fund if the Liberals decided to play politics with it at this the particular time of economic turmoil. They would get killed.

  40. Glen

    It may be a good time to forget the past, it was over a decade ago that the “Labor Black Hole” myth was run up the flagpole.

    It would not have mattered who was in Govt. in the past decade. Even the Greens would have managed to have run up massive surpluses. 😉

  41. It would not have mattered who was in Govt. in the past decade. Even the Greens would have managed to have run up massive surpluses.

    Nah, they wouldn’t have sold Telstra

  42. Because every budget surplus in the last however many years is a direct result of the sale of Telstra…?

    Green economic policy is for a balanced budget btw.

  43. The Victorian Parliament are an absolute disgrace as is the Victorian Government!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/09/2386988.htm
    Victorian MPs pass lesbian fertility bill

    I know people dont choose to be like that they’re born that way but for godsakes IVF should only be for married hetrosexual couples!

    Unfortunately if you’re born that way you werent meant to have children and shouldnt be given the option to use IVF.

    Also this is a disgrace because the Vic Parliament should have better things to consider right now!

  45. They introduced the bill ruawake!

    No IVF for single women or lesbians, period. No ifs no buts period!

    This is a bloody waste of taxpayers money for them to debate irrelevant issues!

  49. Glen

    My view is that IVF is a waste of medical resources full stop. But if it is available to one, it should be available to all.

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