Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
One of a number of comments following an article that says Indiana is in play (read this from 538.com; nice site, hadn’t see it before today) …. Given these comments from on the ground in IN, McCain falls deeper into the quicksand every day 😉 ….
[
October 5, 2008 10:19 PM
There is so much pro-Obama energy here in Monroe County, Indiana. Sure, Indiana University and Bloomington are the bluest part of Indiana — but the Obama campaign is doing its best to get every possible resident to cast a vote for Sen. Obama.
My wife, who has never volunteered for a campaign in her 40+ years of life, is doing so on a regular basis. And she’s hearing from working class people who are 50-60 years old who have never voted are going to cast a ballot for Obama.
Also, an Indiana Republican Party insider has been urging McCain to get to Indiana — because apparently Governor Mitch Daniels (Republican) poll numbers show 15-20% intend to vote Obama.
Indiana, our Indiana, is in play and will be the first great signal to the world that America is on a new course.
]
Here’s an example of how poorly the McCain campaign is being run. McCain doesn’t even explain his tactics to his V.P. candidate:
http://www.slate.com/id/2201669/
[“McCain officials told Politico that the new offensive is likely to focus on [Tony] Rezko and [Bill] Ayers. The officials said the campaign will not bring up the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s former pastor, because McCain has forbade them from using that as a weapon.”]
—Mike Allen, Politico, Oct. 6, 2008
[“To tell you the truth, Bill, I don’t know why that association [with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright] isn’t discussed more, because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our great country, and to have sat in the pews for 20 years and listened to that—with, I don’t know, a sense of condoning it, I guess, because he didn’t get up and leave—to me, that does say something about character.”]
—Sarah Palin to Bill Kristol in the New York Times, Oct. 6, 2008
ShowsOn et. al.,
This is why he is releasing the Keating5 video today, Monday, in US time 😉 …… To get McCain in a messed up state prior to the next debate 😉
Voter suppression battles (a la attempts in Ohio) brewing in Indiana {Lake County is the NW part of the state near Chicago}
http://progressillinois.com/2008/10/04/lake-county-voter-supression
Possum,
Right up your alley, article with lots of votes and grapsh and so on, discussing the power of the youth vote (18-24) 😉
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=85&ArticleName=Youth+Vote%3a+The+Power+of+Registration
Fellow bludgers, I note that a number of you have made requests for historical data on previous US elections – this site here will have all you need:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Only one thing to keep in mind, for some reason it portrays Republican states won as blue and Democrat states won as red! Apart from that it’s a very good ready reckoner.
McCain hasn’t got a hope in h*** of winning Florida now IF the vote is close, Palin is his albatross …..
(article about the Florida Jewish vote)
[
“I was leaning towards McCain,” growled Marvin Weinstein, 74, as he strode to an appointment in a doctor’s office. “But I think his choice of her has turned me off.”
“What I hear is she’s an awful anti-Semite,” George Friedberg said as he sat curbside in his Escalade. “She won’t be getting my vote.” Friedberg’s wife, Florence, appeared at the passenger-side door, shopping bags in hand. “I was leaning towards McCain, but after he selected her I’ve ruled him out completely. I find her offensive.”
Just a month ago, Florida was not considered top of the list among likely electoral vote pickups for Barack Obama. Since the spring McCain had held a consistent lead in the state, which dovetailed with rumors that many of South Florida’s Jews, a major building block of the state’s Democratic coalition, were wary of a black candidate with a Muslim middle name.
But that was before Wall Street’s meltdown — and before the full import of the Palin pick began to sink in. A poll from Quinnipiac University put Obama ahead of McCain in Florida by a substantive 51 to 43 percent as of Sept. 29, and cited “Gov. Sarah Palin’s sagging favorability,” among other things, as an influence.
Only about 5 percent of Florida’s voters are Jewish, according to exit polls from the 2004 election. But this is a swing state with 27 electoral votes and elections here are often decided by slim margins. “You never, ever take a vote for granted in Florida,” notes Democratic pollster Thomas Eldon, of Schroth & Eldon Associates. “All the votes here count, even if we don’t count all the votes.” George Bush owed his victory in Florida in 2000, and the presidency, in large part to the difficulty that the elderly Jewish voters of Palm Beach County had with a butterfly ballot.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/06/florida/index.html
]
Oh PLEASE……………………………… if this is the best that they can come up with, I’ll break out the champagne now LOL ….. 🙂
[
Obama is Dangerous. Vote for Me If You Want to Live!
The McCain campaign is all set to roll out its message for the last 30 days of the campaign: “We may not be good for your bank account, your mortgage, your health care, or your job security — but none of that will matter if you are dead. John McCain: If You Want to Live.”
It’s coming a little earlier than expected, but with an imploding economy and no solutions from the McCain camp other than yet another round of tax cuts, Team McCain is hitting the GOP’s default key: Be Very Afraid!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/mccains-desperate-claim-o_b_132350.html
]
Juliem
I said a week or two ago that they were desperate. Its not McCain; its all the hangers on and party machien people now working in his campaign. As I suggested a while ago, I suspect some of them face the real risk of jail if government changes and the Bush adminsitration is fully investigated. Look at what has happened already over teh US Attorney sackings since a democrat controlled congress has been able to investigate. Imagine what we might find if an Obama appointed attorney general inevstigated all the torture cases, including those which involved people who later turned out to be completely innocent?
These guys will do anything to cling to office. I hope Obama does not respond in kind; it will only underline the difference between them.
Wow that Virginia poll is amazing. McCain is looking more than gone, he is dead and buried on those numbers…
From the NBC/WSJ poll regarding the VP debate:
[The poll also comes after the first presidential and vice-presidential debates. While analysts and pundits might disagree over the performances, the survey finds that there was a clear winner among voters: Obama-Biden. By a 50-29 percent margin, respondents say Obama and Biden bested their GOP opponents at the debates.
In particular, Biden saw his poll numbers rise after his debate against Alaska Palin. Two weeks ago, 64 percent said that the Delaware senator was qualified to be president if the need arises. The number has now jumped to 74 percent. By comparison, just 41 believe that Palin is qualified to be president, which is virtually unchanged from the last survey.]
Florida blue according to pollster.com
How sweet it is 🙂
1211
Agree Dario. That’s a massive vote for Obama in Virginia.
1190
I agree that internet polls are a bit suss but if it’s the Zogby poll you are referring to, even that is trending towards Obama by my reading.
Obama’s coattails could provide a fillibuster proof majority 😉 …..
[
In addition to Georgia, Kentucky and North Carolina, Republican senators in Mississippi, Oregon, Minnesota and New Hampshire are in serious dogfights to hold their seats, and the party has all but given up on New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Alaska. Nate Silver even suggests that Texas might be lurching into play. The Democrats, on the other hand, only need to mount a defense for one senator, Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu.
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/?last_story=/politics/war_room/2008/10/06/senate_democrats/
]
Tomorrow’s debate is in a town hall style format where voters will ask the candidates questions. Supposedly, this format is McCain’s favorite type, as opposed to standing behind a podium or something else. Read what happened at town hall style meeting in Colorado over the US summer 😉 ….
[
Throughout his two presidential campaigns, Sen. McCain has favored the casual Q&A style of campaigning over speeches to large crowds that play better to Sen. Obama’s oratory.
The spontaneous, unpredictable conversational style of the events and the informal interaction with voters seem to bring out the best in Sen. McCain, more than canned, oft-repeated stump speeches do. The group interaction brings out his quick wit and self-proclaimed bent for “straight talk” — he often will engage in extended debate with a voter who disagrees with him, even saying directly that the person is wrong.
At a summer event in Denver, a woman in a wheelchair asked Sen. McCain whether he would consider supporting the Community Choice Act that would give disabled people greater freedom on where to live.
“I will not,” Sen. McCain responded. “Because I don’t think it’s the right kind of legislation.” A trio of people in wheelchairs left the room after his response.
In recent weeks, the McCain campaign has sharply curbed the number of such events.
]
juliem
Election projection is the Repug version of electoral-vote. It’s useful when people whine about 538 or electoral-vote being biased coz it’s run by a rampant Repug. It’s at;
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
And I know we’ve said this before but what the hell has McCain done to NH? They’re killing him there. And all the Floridian Jews worrying about Palin being an anti-Semite is quite funny. I wonder where they got that idea.
Economy back on the front page of Drudge. What do the world’s governments do now? Personally, I have NFI but some of you must have a few ideas. Let’s hope Obama and McCain get asked about it during the next debate.
[Wall Street suffered through another traumatic session Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials plunging as much as 800 points and setting a new record for a one-day point drop as investors despaired that the credit crisis would take a heavy toll around the world. The Dow also fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2004, and all the major indexes fell about 5 percent.
The catalyst for the selling was the growing realization that the Bush administration’s $700 billion rescue plan and steps taken by other governments won’t work quickly to unfreeze the credit markets. Moreover, investors are increasingly unnerved by the paralysis in the credit markets that has started to affect companies trying to borrow for acquisitions or just to conduct their daily operations.]
Wall Street tumbles amid global sell-off
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93L6K8O0&show_article=1
[In particular, Biden saw his poll numbers rise after his debate against Alaska Palin. Two weeks ago, 64 percent said that the Delaware senator was qualified to be president if the need arises. The number has now jumped to 74 percent. By comparison, just 41 believe that Palin is qualified to be president, which is virtually unchanged from the last survey.]
But I thought Palin WON the debate! That guy she was against talked as if he knew the definitions of the words he was using, that was SO off putting! 😀
[Election projection is the Repug version of electoral-vote. It’s useful when people whine about 538 or electoral-vote being biased coz it’s run by a rampant Repug.]
[Senate: The projected Senate makeup remains at 56-42 in favor of the Democrats this week. That’s seven projected pickups for the Democrats, and there could be more. Three additional GOP Senate seats, Georgia, Minnesota and Mississippi (special), are rated as “Weak GOP Holds.” I’m not too worried about Saxby Chambliss seat in Georgia, but the other two will be close. Of the current pickups, North Carolina and Oregon are the two most likely to remain with the Republicans.]
This is kind of funny, because according to Republican staffers they are already considering North Carolina as a loss (Bob Dole’s wife).
Missouri has gone blue now. That only leaves Indiana to go. Obama continues to climb nationally to 6.2%. Intrade is 69-31. Obama is now 4 to 1 on with the bookies. Would Hillary have won by that much? We’ll never know but I doubt it.
[Would Hillary have won by that much?]
Come on Dio… she would have won the EV by 1000000-0, and then turned water into wine!!! 😉
A nice article about McCain’s embarassingly incompetent campaign.
[Other campaigns have decided that their only shot is going negative, but usually they don’t announce it, as several McCain aides have in recent days–there’s no way we can win on the economy, so we’re going to go sludge-diving.
But since we are dealing with manure here, I’ll put the rest of this post below the fold.
It is appropriate that the prime vessel for this assault is Sarah Palin, whose very presence on a national ticket is an insult to your intelligence. She now has “credibility,” we are told, because she managed to read talking points off notecards in the debate last week with unwitting enthusiasm. ]
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/embarracuda.html
[Missouri has gone blue now. That only leaves Indiana to go. Obama continues to climb nationally to 6.2%. Intrade is 69-31. ]
I think that is the highest he has ever been. I don’t think he has ever broken 70.
[Would Hillary have won by that much? We’ll never know but I doubt it.]
Of course Hilary would’ve won by 500 electoral votes. That’s just ‘obvious’ 😀
[She now has “credibility,” we are told, because she managed to read talking points off notecards in the debate last week with unwitting enthusiasm.]
Oh fair, fair, that’s not all she did; she also smiled and winked a lot.
It is now near on impossible for the GOP to get up, but let’s not count the chickens yet… 4 weeks is a long time in US politics.
[It is now near on impossible for the GOP to get up, but let’s not count the chickens yet… 4 weeks is a long time in US politics.]
Totally. But what happened yesterday on Wall Street won’t help.
Just went the McCain campaign wanted to shift over to throwing mud, the stock market takes another huge dive, so they’ll be forced to talk about things that people actually care about.
Wolfson, who has written a lot of good articles despite running a crap campaign, says that the Rezko/Ayers/Wright smears won’t help McCain much. While the economy stays No 1, and Obama has a double digit lead in it, McCain is stuffed.
And he calls the election for Obama.
[This is a big election about big issues. McCain’s smallball will not work. This race will not be decided by lipsticked pigs. And John McCain can not escape that reality. The only unknowns are the size of the margin and the breadth of the Democratic advantage in the next Congress.]
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_flack/archive/2008/10/05/it-s-over.aspx
[the stock market takes another huge dive, so they’ll be forced to talk about things that people actually care about.]
Yep. Blunted the attacks perfectly.
Diogenes 1217
The really sad part is that Secretary Paulson seems to have no idea. Funny, him being a money market financier-genius and all.
I’m not expert but I would have thought the two key things are to restore confidence and protect any public stake. So that could mean guaranteeing public deposits in savings banks and taking public equity in the troubled institutions rather than giving cash injections. I read blogs by John Quiggan and Krugman in the US, who I consider good economists.
[So that could mean guaranteeing public deposits in savings banks]
They raised the deposit insurance limit from $100k to $250k last week I think?
1229
{So that could mean guaranteeing public deposits in savings banks and taking public equity in the troubled institutions rather than giving cash injections}. .
Haven’t you heard Socrates? The yanks like to call that socialism. It’s the source of all financial evil in the world. They’d rather go down with the sinking ship than do that.
As for a solution to the financial crisis, there were some good articles on the solution Sweden used to a similar problem in the early 90s. It involves direct government intervention, something right wing reps find so ahard ot admit works. Better that they let the whole country go to hell than admit their ideology was wrong! See Krugman on both the current US treasuries failures, and the Swedish model:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/opinion/03krugman.html
Speaking of Paul Krugman, he has highlighted another delightful aspect of Republican policy – their attempt to get rid of public health funding. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Darn
Snap! That is exactly the problem: ideology ahead of painfull facts.
I see our share market has dropped 3.1% in the first 15 minutes of trading. Even Rudd is sounding worried and he’s been pretty cool with it so far.
More good news for Obama. Rezko’s sentencing has been postponed from its intended date (which would have been just before polling day).
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/rezko/1205307,rezko100608.article
Georgia has now been downgraded to Leaning McCain on RCP.
Meanwhile, PA has become Solid Obama, whilst NH and MN have become Leaning Obama.
The pressure is now on McCain to deliver a “game-changing” performance at the debate tomorrow…
The repubs oficial dirt file on Obama and Ayers.
http://www.gop.com/News/NewsRead.aspx?Guid=768aa784-72f3-4b43-acb6-c5fe81d901cd
It’s pathetic… eg:
[Obama And Ayers Are Neighbors In Chicago’s Hyde Park Neighborhood. “Twenty-six years later, at a lunchtime meeting about school reform in a Chicago skyscraper, Barack Obama met Mr. Ayers, by then an education professor. Their paths have crossed sporadically since then, at a coffee Mr. Ayers hosted for Mr. Obama’s first run for office, on the schools project and a charitable board, and in casual encounters as Hyde Park neighbors.”]
It’s going nowhere. McCain has enough skeletons in his closet (Keating 5, Liddy, Ifshin) and the economy is going to keep on giving until polling day. He can plan his retirement now.
Diogenes @ 1220,
Hope the h*** that Missouri holds for Obama 😉 ….. that will be SO sweet if it does, one of my sisters is a Rep. and lives in Missouri LOL ………
1223,
[
Missouri has gone blue now. That only leaves Indiana to go. Obama continues to climb nationally to 6.2%. Intrade is 69-31.
I think that is the highest he has ever been. I don’t think he has ever broken 70.
]
Possum, isn’t 70% or so on Intratrade a gimme? 😉 …….
From a mailing list I am on; various speeches and so on in the next month before the election, also a link for an election day gathering in Sydney somewheres ….
[
Obama v McCain – Round 2
Presidential Debate
12:00pm – 2:00pm, Wednesday 8 October
Manning Bar, The University of Sydney
FREE
The Foreign Policy of Obama and McCain:
Which is Australia’s Gain?
Public Forum
6:30pm, Thursday 16 October
Seymour Theatre Centre
$20 Adult/$15 Concession/Free for USYD students and staff
Featuring, Kim Beazley (former Deputy Prime Minister), Mike Chinoy, (former CNN chief Asia correspondent), Paul Kelly (Editor-at-Large, The Australian), and USSC Chief Executive Geoff Garrett.
Book now
America in Crisis: What’s Next and What to Do About It?
Public Forum, co-presented with Sydney Ideas
6:30pm, Tuesday 21 October
Seymour Theatre Centre
$20 Adult/$15 Concession/Free for USYD students and staff
Featuring Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA/Anderson Business Forecast Project
More information
Election Day Spectacular
Reserve your place to the biggest Election Day gathering in Sydney.
link for the public forums – http://www.uselectionwatch.org.au/events/public-forums
link for the election day party in Sydney – http://www.uselectionwatch.org.au/events/election-day-spectacular
]
Juliem went:
[Possum, isn’t 70% or so on Intratrade a gimme? ]
Has been historically
Intrade has now hit 71% for Obama. McCain’s going to throw everything at Obama during the debate but he can’t actually ask him a question or speak to him at all, according to the rules. Obama just needs to smile, look presidential and play a straight bat.
Possum @ 1242,
COOL …… a 4 week long happy hour 😉 …….
From the comments section of an article on the Huffington blog where McCain was speaking at a rally in NM or AZ and people were calling out racist chants including “kill him” from the audience. McCain let it go through to the keeper, thereby tacitly achknowledging it.
[
Incitment to illegal conduct is not protected speech. McCain has crossed the line. If he believes that Obama’s supporters will just stand by and tolerate this harmful incitement to harm Obama he is sadly mistaken. The secret service better have a chat with both Paln and McCain before this gets out of hand and some kind of violence results.
]
[
Wow. I dont like John McCain but I dont want the guy killed. But the McCain campaign is playing into and loves the racism in their campaign, because it distracts him from dealing with the real issues.
But goodness including Barack will overcome all hatred on Nov 4th.
]
From your fingers lady to God’s ears ………
further to 1245 [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-does-nothing-as-cr_n_132366.html ],
another comment
[
I finally believe what I had suspected – John McCain will stop at nothing. This kind of sick behavior needs to be investigated, the McCain backer arrested. I’m also now beginning to believe why Naomi Wolff claims that our own troops from Iraq are being sent home to handle the election.
]
Does anyone have or can someone find a URL to the Naomi Wolff story referred to here? I will look myself but if anyone else already has it, please post the same … thanks 🙂 🙂
again, further to 1245,
[
And Biden is trying to bury his Mother In Law. I do not think I have heard one word of sympathy from the other side. Has anyone heard something kind along those lines on MSM? If I am wrong, please let me know.
]
Apparently, Biden’s MIL has passed …….. May we keep Biden in our prayers ……
Can somebody please tell me what “he took full responsibility for the debacle” really means? Did he commit hara-kiri? cut a finger off? parade naked on Wall St carrying a sign “I am sorry”? Return the $500M?
[WASHINGTON — Richard S. Fuld Jr. blamed the news media. He blamed the short-sellers. He blamed the government, as well as what he characterized as an “extraordinary run on the bank.” But the chief executive of Lehman Brothers Holdings, the bankrupt remnant of a once-great investment house, never really blamed himself.
Instead, in his first public appearance since Lehman’s collapse, Mr. Fuld said in sworn testimony before a Congressional panel on Monday that while he took full responsibility for the debacle, he believed all his decisions “were both prudent and appropriate” given the information he had at the time.
Henry A. Waxman, the California Democrat who heads the panel, began the hearing with an assault on Mr. Fuld’s pay, bringing out a chart showing that the Lehman chief executive received nearly $500 million in salary and bonus payments in the last eight years.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/business/economy/07lehman.html?bl&ex=1223524800&en=6b2e328b1376df03&ei=5087
They should make him give it all back and prosecute him for theft.
[Intrade has now hit 71% for Obama. McCain’s going to throw everything at Obama during the debate but he can’t actually ask him a question or speak to him at all, according to the rules. Obama just needs to smile, look presidential and play a straight bat.]
McCain sounds nuts when he gets angry, take a look at the interview with the editorial board of a newspaper: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhb41Z-Znkg
At one stage he even argues against his own evidence! He says that he doesn’t think a bill Obama supported is good evidence to attack him with, even though that is what he just did in the previous minute.
I can’t see how getting this angry will help him.