US election minus 36 days

Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.

We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,274 comments on “US election minus 36 days”

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  2. 1150
    Thanks – I found this very detailed daily one on RCP too – http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
    A mate said to me that we can’t believe for too long that Obama will win based on the current polls, because Kerry was ahead leading in to the 04 election – I said no way, Bush led on the average and in basically every poll in the few weeks before the election. I knew I was right!

  3. Does anyone know off the top of their head what the EV split between Kerry and Bush was in 2004?

    I’ve been looking for it but still haven’t come across it.

  5. Diogenes

    #1129
    “Finally Possum has admitted what Il have suspected for almost twelve months. He is in the tank for Obama, as is his little mate Nate at 538.. ”

    Possum is ‘outed’ , just another bloger , so far a pro Obama that he is an Obamabot….where truth is dispensible

    Possum Diogenes like all Obamabots when its adverse to Obama , you will not even post th info or th associations will you even though you know of them …where is th ‘follow th data’ storyline now

    And your weakening credbility of pretending Obama’s only relationship to terorist William Ayres is that he was 8 then…as if Obama & Ayres did not hav TWO close associations during Obama’s politcal career …when he as NOTyears old

    ALL these “close associations” of Obama (Aytres , Rezko , Wright etc) lack of convictions , negligent judgement and poor decency standards Same applies to McCain eg S & L bit ar relevant for any of his “close associations” but Obamabots ar blind to th facts & there objective relevance of these to both candidates

    “dirt” however like thrown against Kerry I don’t support at all And bringing up pow McCain’s admirable war record where he WAS subjected to torture 40 years later with poor allegations is similarly cheap of any blogger here

  14. [Possum is ‘outed’ , just another bloger , so far a pro Obama that he is an Obamabot….where truth is dispensible ]
    Prove using evidence and examples how Possum’s analysis of the Intrade data is biased.
    [Possum Diogenes like all Obamabots when its adverse to Obama , you will not even post th info or th associations will you even though you know of them]
    Why do you support McCain even though you concede that he chose to associate himself with an “agent of intolerance” such as Jerry Falwell? Do YOU believe that Americans helped cause the September 11 terrorist attacks?
    [McCain’s admirable war record where he WAS subjected to torture 40 years later with poor allegations is similarly cheap of any blogger here]
    Who here criticised McCain’s war record?
    [“dirt” however like thrown against Kerry I don’t support at all]
    So why is it fair to bring up things that happened when Obama was 8 years old?

  17. Palin represents all that has been sick about American politics – no talent, no knowledge, no realisation of self-incompetence, believing that to win you smear and lie and do whatever it is you like and, not think that there is anything wrong with that.

    She is the logical end product of Rove and Bush and Cheney – the ultimate level of incompetence being supported in reaching out for ultimate power. The danger with Palin is that she has no understanding at all of her near total incompetence for the position she is after.

  18. [Palin represents all that has been sick about American politics – no talent, no knowledge]
    Oh, it’s worse than that, she has no desire to attain knowledge; hence she thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old, and that humans and dinosaurs coexisted.
    [She is the logical end product of Rove and Bush and Cheney ]
    Exactly, she’s a female version thereof.

  20. Possum can post Obama’s TWO “close associations” with terorist William Ayres after Obama turned 35 and when he WAS in politics (plus Ayres terrorist record)…ie AFTER Obama was 8 , in fact after he was past 35

    …IF Possum “follows th data wherever it leads” ….even if it leads adversely to Obama , but Possum does NOT want to as an Obama blogger so that credibility is dustbinnned like all Obamabotsd in favour of not acknowledging Obama’s close politcal mates

    Obama & terrorist William Ayres highlights not that a candidate (Obama) did there whaco/criminal acts but highlights Obama’s poor judgment , lack of convictions & poor decency standards Its like being a political mate of a convicted multiple pedafile
    .
    (if McCain’s history fits th same bill of terrorist mates , then of course he deserves similar condemnation

  21. [Obama & terrorist William Ayres highlights not that a candidate (Obama) did there whaco/criminal acts but highlights Obama’s poor judgment ,]
    And McCain meeting with an agent of intolerance reflects poor judgement.
    [if McCain’s history fits th same bill of terrorist mates , then of course he deserves similar condemnation]
    He was just paid off in order to get special treatment for a fraudster mate. That reflects poor judgement too.

  22. 1168

    It’s amazing how many of these religious types who go into politics have no scruples whatsoever. Most of the republicans, including Palin, seem to fit that mould as did Bjelke Petersen. The end justifies the means seems to be their real creed – such breathtaking hypocrisy. .

  23. [It’s amazing how many of these religious types who go into politics have no scruples whatsoever. Most of the republicans, including Palin, seem to fit that mould as did Bjelke Petersen. The end justifies the means seems to be their real creed – such breathtaking hypocrisy. .]
    They think they are fighting a culture war. They think they have to make standards for how others live their lives, else society will fall apart.

    Whereas I think so long as people don’t harm each other, the government has no role in telling adults what they can and can’t do.

  25. WASHINGTON — Some voters under 30 are conservatives. An equal number are liberals. But a striking majority of the Millennial generation agrees on one thing: who should be the next president.
    WASHINGTON — Some voters under 30 are conservatives. An equal number are liberals. But a striking majority of the Millennial generation agrees on one thing: who should be the next president.

    A USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of registered voters 18 to 29 years old shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by 61%-32%, the most lopsided contest within an age group in any presidential election in modern times. Obama’s margin is overwhelming across four groups of younger voters, divided by their engagement in the election, their optimism about the future and other factors

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-05-poll-youth_N.htm

  33. I will ADD to my ealier post !170 so its not taken out of context

    #1170
    Possum can post Obama’s TWO “close associations” with terorist William Ayres after Obama turned 35 and when he WAS in politics (plus Ayres terrorist record)…ie AFTER Obama was 8 , in fact after he was past 35

    …IF Possum “follows th data wherever it leads” ….even if it leads adversely to Obama , but Possum does NOT want to as an Obama blogger so that credibility is dustbinnned like all Obamabotsd in favour of not acknowledging Obama’s close politcal mates

    Obama & terrorist William Ayres highlights not that a candidate (Obama) did there whaco/criminal acts but highlights Obama’s poor judgment , lack of convictions & poor decency standards Its like being a political mate of a convicted multiple pedafile
    .
    (if McCain’s history fits th same bill of terrorist mates , then of course he deserves similar condemnation

    So thats th terrroist POLITICAL mate William Ayres of Obama , that I’m challenging possum to disclose th 3 specified info’s on listed in first paragraph

    NEXT religous whaco’s
    Obama , 20 continuous years with th whaco Wright , his marriage celiberant , kids batizer , his publicly admitted “mentor” , his publicly admitted fanmilt friend , indeed per Pbama his family ‘uncle…Wright who sermoned on bigogary , 9/11 US brought , US Govt introduced aids etc etc that Obama said he PRIVATELY disgree with..but kept coming back to Church a reel whaco

    vs McCain , ‘association’ with th whaco Jerry Falwell , BUT NOT th close level of Obama & Wright !! Does that make McCain & Falwell ok…of course not , that asociation was ridiculous , just that Obama’s longer and far more imbeded and worser

    SEEDY mates
    Obama (Rezko) refer NYT joutrnalistic investigation & ABC News Report (refer my earlier link) vs McCain (H Keating etc)
    Both bad , but again Obama’s close Rezko mate imbeded association was longer & more imbeded (check th history)

    SUMMARY
    ON th above three close mates test of Obama vs McCain , Obama is a complete failure vs McCain on poor negligent judgment , lack of convictions & poor decency standards ,
    …..McCain in comparison is a cleanskin although thats comparatively only McCain’s “standards” therefore ar superior to Obama’s but MCain’s problem is whilst he is clearly not a “Bush” McCain does represent th past & is a Republican with those general Republican imbeded politcal beliefs & voters wanted a change before th Bailout
    …th collapse & bailout simply guaranteed it

  34. “The Dow has opened up about 200 points down. It looks like it might drop through the 10,000 barrier. This all very worrying.”

    Market & general economy ar not quite th same but flow on factors very concerning Neither our Banks nor our Markets ‘deserve’ questioning on there fundamentals nor indeed on our National Governemnts fundamentals , but unfortunately ‘deserve ‘ doesn’t come into it

  41. Zogby ,extraorinary , fine sample 2873 likely voters , MOE only 1.9%

    VP Debate Biden wins only 50 to 41

    Obama leads McCain only 48 to 44

    Biden acting as POTUS 75% comfortable , and Palin 48% comfortable

    This poll and its MOE compared to some others is very encouraging for Republicans ! But hav to say Zogby (& ARG incidently ) ar not pollsters I use due to there “inconsistency” (there’s that 538 word) , so for me th figures in all 3 areas seem more favourable to Republicans than my sense…perhaps there Party breakups of likely voters differed

  44. Glen @1112,

    [
    Unless you polled people who had voted in the past 2 elections and was going to vote this time its stupid to do polls, because even though they may like a candidate that doesnt mean on tuesday they’ll bother turning up.
    ]

    You only start saying that when your favorite is bringing up the rear 😉

  45. Diogenes, do you have a URL for ElectionProjection? Not a site that I’ve visited before, but it sounds like it is well worth checking out 😉

  46. Glen @ 1136,

    [
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2008 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
    Ohio and Florida dont need much work, they’ve voted Republican in the last 2 elections and NC should be able to be brought back to the fold. Likewise with VA. NV NM and Colorado will be the hard ones.
    ]

    I’ve saved this comment for posterity as I’ve done with a few others that have been out in left field. I’ll bring this back after the election ;=)

  47. Barack Obama will win. he will win not because he is the best candidate. he is not, in fact he is just as flawed as McCain if not more flawed. A dud just like McCain. he will win because of the economic collapse in USA and then the rest of the World. So you Obamabots should not be too cocky about it. I pity America and the World.

  48. Diogenes @ 1147,

    [
    Who else can he get to stump for him? Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld etc are all electoral poison. Romney’s heart’s not in it, and Huckabee’s isn’t either. He’s got Rudy and Lieberman.
    ]

    Dems better nail Lieberman’s a** to the wall when this is all said and done. Don’t think he will be caucusing with the Dems any more ……. 😉

  49. Just another rhetorical flourish for TP and his fellow travellers.

    Obama represents all that has been sick about American politics – no talent, no knowledge, no realisation of self-incompetence, believing that to win you smear and lie and do whatever it is you like and, not think that there is anything wrong with that.

    He is the logical end product of Rove and Bush and Cheney – the ultimate level of incompetence being supported in reaching out for ultimate power. The danger with Obama is that he has no understanding at all of his near total incompetence for the position he is after.

  50. [believing that to win you smear and lie and do whatever it is you like and, not think that there is anything wrong with that. ]
    Well that is what the Republicans do, so why shouldn’t the Democrats do the same if they want to win?

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