Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43, remembering that this is a two-week rolling average which was half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson. Also included (just from the last week’s sample) are various questions on leadership and one on industrial relations (45 per cent think the government moving “too slowly”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

762 thoughts on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  1. cuppa

    Thanks for the link:

    “If the pollies can’t control their urge to buy the oldies’ votes at every successive election, they’re pouring petrol on a generational powder keg that may one day blow up in all our faces.”

    How prophetic from 2004, not much has changed in rabble politics.

  2. To be perfectly honest I’d rather Fielding, X & the Greens provide some resistance to the government rather than have them end up the way Howard did with no review whatsoever. As long as it doesn’t get too out of hand of course…

  3. Former Howard government minister Mal Brough has quit the presidency of the Queensland Liberal Party.

    This afternoon, Mr Brough said he had enough of bickering over who will pay the Queensland Liberal Party’s outstanding debts.

    “Well, I’ve just had a gutful, quite frankly. I think this whole thing is a bit of a shambles,” he told 4BC radio.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-quits-liberal-presidency/2008/09/25/1222217423498.html

  4. RU, the way the Liberals have amplified this they would have you believe that pensioners only began whingeing on 25 November 2007. But as Gittins points out in the article, they were vociferous under Howard too. “Howard’s Whingers”, as Gittins called them.

  5. It’s Time

    There are very deep divisions over the National Party and Santo Santoro faction take over of conservative politics in Qld. My view is that it will spawn a new conservative party.

  6. Hearing about Brough now is no different to Karmichael hunt’s girlfriend hitting the press for the first time.
    Who?
    What?
    Why?
    And in related (and equally relevant) news I saw a rosella on my balcony today.
    There should be 30-40 articles on the Wall Street plan above this in the pile.
    Has anyone seen an article on the drop in the dollar in the last few weeks; less than a month ago we were headed for parity and beyond eh?
    We really do have the attention span of a gnat.

    (Last days of Rome, last days of Rome)

  7. ruawake

    Brough has been the pinup boy of the dissenters (god knows why). His comments seem more definitive than Costello that he is out of here. So the dissenters may lack someone of any public recognition to rally around.

  8. Mr Brough said he would officially stand aside once the federal Liberal Party’s constitution is amended to formally recognise the LNP.

    WTF? The Liberal Party of Queensland will no longer exist once the federal Libs make the LNP the Queensland division of the Liberal Party.

    Looks like more grandstanding from Brough.

  9. onimod

    Your post at 608 is the largest pile of steaming brown stuff I have read in days. The Conservatives in Qld are deeply divided and this affects Federal Politics.

    The Australian dollar goes up and down, being at parity is not neccesarily a good thing.

    The great US meltdown is the great ho-hum of the year. It is probably a good thing that the world pisses them off as the de-facto reserve currency and switch to the euro.

    Then maybe they will sort out the huge problems they have as a nation.

  10. The Liberal and National Federal members are both members of the LNP and their respective parties – it is in the LNP constitution.

    It must be the only party where you can be a member of another party.

  11. William
    “The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

    Prove me wrong, readers!”

    was your hat on the line?

  12. Which refugee hordes would they be?

    Exactly. I thought there was supposed to be a run on now that the government had relaxed mandatory detention.

  13. Actually it is quite a good insight into turnbull

    payout on costello,dis kerry,admit he smoked pot

    ideal leadership material for the fibs 🙂

  14. Well, Turnbull has charisma – he really does. In person he is quite enigmatic. On the surface he is bright and shiny and people like to be near him – which includes media personalities. Underneath the surface though, there are some quite murky little unpleasantries lurking around. Malcolm has had his hand in a lot of pies in business – it will be interesting to see if any of the little stories about him ever hit the light of day or if people keep their mouths shut. He really has a dark side as well.

  15. And have you noticed the audience is stacked with young Liberal toffs?

    hard not to with the questions being dished up, although the homeless question made a nice change

  16. This has got to be the biggest heap of “waffle” that I have experienced for a lomg, long time.

    Turnbull makes Beasley look good.

    Having to sit through a repeat, word for word, of the guff he sprouted in the press conference just after being elected leader is unbearable.

    Probably trying to make sure that absolutely no one could possibly miss the message he wanted to express last Tuesday.

  17. Having to sit through a repeat, word for word, of the guff he sprouted in the press conference just after being elected leader is unbearable.

    It will please the Lib die-hards, nothing more

  18. taking off the blinkers and looking at talcum’s performance i would say that this is one polished media performer,more and more I thinkabout it, he is going to present himself as rudd lite but with abit more chutzpah.

  19. Maybe, Gusface. But he isn’t really under any pressure is he? It will probably remain a mystery as to how he would function with the type of scrutiny and pressure that Rudd gets.

  20. And did you hear his comments on parliamentary question time?

    Unbelievable. Only side of politics is disruptive during QT.

    Yeah, that’s right. Labor. Who would have thunk it.

    Turnbull must be watching a different QT than the rest of us.

  21. Yes, a complete suck up from Aunty tonight!
    Something has to be done about that board, and please fire Tony Jones, he’s an embarrassment to impartial journalism, along with the rest of the press gallery!

  22. I agree with you Gusface. I guess the question will be if the Libs can tolerate his small ‘L’ liberal social bent. Some will welcome it (yes Mr Pyne, I’m looking at you), but I don’t think Nick Minchin, Tony Abbott and their ilk will be so keen. It would be really interesting to see if the ALP started introducing more progressive social legislation – I can’t see it happening in their first term, but talk about possible wedges! I must admit I’m a little shallow, I’d just love to see Tony Abbott’s head implode!

  23. Mr T may work out and he may not… but he is no fool and you guys really shouldn’t underestimate him.

    Lot’s of people will like what they see in him

  24. Question to Tony Jones. Are you an impartial journalist?

    Answer; What’s impartial mean.

    Question to Tony Jones. Aren’t you embarrassed?

    Answer; I don’t know what embarrassed means.

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